Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

Sensor-based Control of Chewing and Rumination Behavior of Dairy Cows

The measurement of feed intake, feeding time and rumination time, summarized by the term feeding behavior, are helpful indicators for early recognition of animals which show deviations in their behavior. The overall objective of this work was the development of an early warning system for inadequate feeding rations and digestive and metabolic disorders, which prevention constitutes the basis for health, performance, and reproduction. In a literature review, the current state of the art and the suitability of different measurement tools to determine feeding behavior of ruminants was discussed. Five measurement methods based on different methodological approaches (visual observance, pressure transducer, electrical switches, electrical deformation sensors and acoustic biotelemetry), and three selected measurement techniques (the IGER Behavior Recorder, the Hi-Tag rumination monitoring system and RumiWatchSystem) were described, assessed and compared to each other within this review. In the second study, the new system for measuring feeding behavior of dairy cows was evaluated. The measurement of feeding behavior ensues through electromyography (EMG). For validation, the feeding behavior of 14 cows was determined by both the EMG system and by visual observation. The high correlation coefficients indicate that the current system is a reliable and suitable tool for monitoring the feeding behavior of dairy cows. The aim of a further study was to compare the DairyCheck (DC) system and two additional measurement systems for measuring rumination behavior in relation to efficiency, reliability and reproducibility, with respect to each other. The two additional systems were labeled as the Lely Qwes HR (HR) sensor, and the RumiWatchSystem (RW). Results of accordance of RW and DC to each other were high. The last study examined whether rumination time (RT) is affected by the onset of calving and if it might be a useful indicator for the prediction of imminent birth. Data analysis referred to the final 72h before the onset of calving, which were divided into twelve 6h-blocks. The results showed that RT was significantly reduced in the final 6h before imminent birth.

Modelo de un sistema de vigilancia epidemiológico empresarial

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir la experiencia de la elaboración de un modelo de sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica empresarial que permita identificar a través de un sistema de alerta temprana patologías empresariales que requieren acciones rápidas para su control. Su objetivo primordial es monitorear la tendencia epidemiológica de estos eventos que se consideren de gran impacto en la salud empresarial, para ser controladas con acciones específicas. También permitirá la captura de información con el objetivo de construir bases de datos que generen estadísticas necesarias para la creación de políticas empresariales del sector. Adicionalmente estos datos nos facilitarán la construcción de indicadores. Se realizo un estudio de tipo descriptivo exploratorio (corte transversal), población Hospitales del Distrito Capital y que cumplieron con criterios de inclusión y exclusión. Se aplico un instrumento para la recolección de datos a 43 empresas, 10 gerentes 5 subgerentes, 3 subgerentes financieros y 6 administrativos. En el análisis se observo que los hospitales del Distrito a pesar que tienen los balances financieros se evidencia reducciones de nominas en un 42%, deudas en un 76%, al revisar el aspectos logísticos y de distribución la pérdida de clientes es del 71%. Con lo relacionado al mercado podríamos decir que las tarifas y la normatividad afectan negativamente a las empresas del sector salud en un 63%.El estudio demostró que las empresas a pesar de contar con sus análisis financieros y análisis del mercado aun se presentan comportamientos que afecta la prestación del servicio con llevando a la morbi - mortalidades de empresarial.

Las alertas tempranas. La prevención de la violencia y las dificultades de la experiencia colombiana

El presente artículo realiza una aproximación al sistema de alertas tempranas que se han constituido en un importante instrumento para evitar el escalamiento de las disputas y sus consecuencias. Los autores realizan un estudio sobre la aplicación de este sistema preventivo en el caso colombiano, analizando el papel del Estado en la implementación de estos mecanismos. Destacan la complejidad del caso colombiano en tanto que el Estado adquiere la doble característica de juez y parte en la implementación de este sistema preventivo, dado que es actor del conflicto y a la vez responsable de su implementación. Así mismo, describen algunas de las dificultades, propias de un contexto de conflicto armado, que tiene la fuerza pública para prestar asistencia pronta y eficaz a las comunidades ante amenazas o ataques de los grupos armados ilegales.-----This article approaches the early alert system, a valuable instrument for avoiding growing conflicts and their consequences. The authors study the implementation of such a system in Colombia by analyzing the role that the State plays in its application. They point out the complexity of the Colombian situation, insofar as the State plays a double role as judge of and participant in the implementation of this preventive system, since it is involved in the conflict and is also responsible for its implementation. In addition, the authors describe some of the difficulties, often found in an armed-conflict context, that the army and the police must face in order to assist communities on time and effectively when the latter are threatened or attacked by illegal armed groups.

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

Prospects for biodiversity conservation in the Atlantic Forest: Lessons from aging human-modified landscapes

Recent global assessments have shown the limited coverage of protected areas across tropical biotas, fuelling a growing interest in the potential conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes. Here we examine the geographic distribution of biological diversity in the Atlantic Forest of South America, synthesize the most conspicuous forest biodiversity responses to human disturbances, propose further conservation initiatives for this biota, and offer a range of general insights into the prospects of forest species persistence in human-modified tropical forest landscapes worldwide. At the biome scale, the most extensive pre-Columbian habitats across the Atlantic Forest ranged across elevations below 800 masl, which still concentrate most areas within the major centers of species endemism. Unfortunately, up to 88% of the original forest habitat has been lost, mainly across these low to intermediate elevations, whereas protected areas are clearly skewed towards high elevations above 1200 masl. At the landscape scale, most remaining Atlantic Forest cover is embedded within dynamic agro-mosaics including elements such as small forest fragments, early-to-late secondary forest patches and exotic tree mono-cultures. In this sort of aging or long-term modified landscapes, habitat fragmentation appears to effectively drive edge-dominated portions of forest fragments towards an early-successional system, greatly limiting the long-term persistence of forest-obligate and forest-dependent species. However, the extent to which forest habitats approach early-successional systems, thereby threatening the bulk of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity, depends on both past and present landscape configuration. Many elements of human-modified landscapes (e.g. patches of early-secondary forests and tree mono-cultures) may offer excellent conservation opportunities, but they cannot replace the conservation value of protected areas and hitherto unprotected large patches of old-growth forests. Finally, the biodiversity conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes across Atlantic Forest and other tropical forest regions can be significantly augmented by coupling biodiversity corridor initiatives with biota-scale attempts to plug existing gaps in the representativeness of protected areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not

Research question: A major barrier to retaining existing customers is the difficulty in knowing who is most at risk of leaving (or ‘churning’). Given the strategic and financial importance of season ticket holders (STH) to professional sport teams, this paper examines the effectiveness of a range of variables in identifying the STH who are most likely to churn.
Research methods: A longitudinal field study was undertaken to reflect actual conditions. Survey data of a professional sport team STH were collected prior to the conclusion of the season. Actual renewal data were then tracked from team records the following season. This work was replicated across five professional sport teams from the Australian Football League, with renewal predictions made and tracked for over 10,000 STH.
Results and findings: The results suggest that the ‘Juster’ Scale – a simple, one-item purchase probability measure – is an effective identifier of those most at risk of churning, more than 3 months in advance. When combined with ticket utilization and tenure measures, predictive accuracy improves markedly, to the point where these three measures can be used to provide an effective early warning system for managers.
Implications: Whilst there is a tendency to view STH as highly loyal, these data reinforce the importance of actively managing all customers to reduce churn. Despite their commitment, STH do churn, but those most likely to can be predicted by examining their patterns of behaviour in the current season. Efforts to retain STH need to shift their focus from transactional value assessments.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

Encoding mechanisms based on fast oscillations in the retina of the cat and their dependencies on anesthesia

Processing in the visual system starts in the retina. Its complex network of cells with different properties enables for parallel encoding and transmission of visual information to the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and to the cortex. In the retina, it has been shown that responses are often accompanied by fast synchronous oscillations (30 - 90 Hz) in a stimulus-dependent manner. Studies in the frog, rabbit, cat and monkey, have shown strong oscillatory responses to large stimuli which probably encode global stimulus properties, such as size and continuity (Neuenschwander and Singer, 1996; Ishikane et al., 2005). Moreover, simultaneous recordings from different levels in the visual system have demonstrated that the oscillatory patterning of retinal ganglion cell responses are transmitted to the cortex via the LGN (Castelo-Branco et al., 1998). Overall these results suggest that feedforward synchronous oscillations contribute to visual encoding. In the present study on the LGN of the anesthetized cat, we further investigate the role of retinal oscillations in visual processing by applying complex stimuli, such as natural visual scenes, light spots of varying size and contrast, and flickering checkerboards. This is a necessary step for understanding encoding mechanisms in more naturalistic conditions, as currently most data on retinal oscillations have been limited to simple, flashed and stationary stimuli. Correlation analysis of spiking responses confirmed previous results showing that oscillatory responses in the retina (observed here from the LGN responses) largely depend on the size and stationarity of the stimulus. For natural scenes (gray-level and binary movies) oscillations appeared only for brief moments probably when receptive fields were dominated by large continuous, flat-contrast surfaces. Moreover, oscillatory responses to a circle stimulus could be broken with an annular mask indicating that synchronization arises from relatively local interactions among populations of activated cells in the retina. A surprising finding in this study was that retinal oscillations are highly dependent on halothane anesthesia levels. In the absence of halothane, oscillatory activity vanished independent of the characteristics of the stimuli. The same results were obtained for isoflurane, which has similar pharmacological properties. These new and unexpected findings question whether feedfoward oscillations in the early visual system are simply due to an imbalance between excitation and inhibition in the retinal networks generated by the halogenated anesthetics. Further studies in awake behaving animals are necessary to extend these conclusions

Sincronização da ovulação em fêmeas suínas submetidas ao desmame precoce

Verificou-se a eficiência de protocolos para sincronizar a ovulação em porcas desmamadas precocemente. Trinta porcas com média de 4,4± 2,0 partos e estádio de lactação de 14,8± 0,7 dias foram distribuídas em três grupos de 10 animais: 1- nenhum tratamento hormonal; 2- 1000 UI de PMSG, via intramuscular (IM), 48h pós-desmame e 0,25mg de GnRH, IM, 72h após a aplicação do PMSG; 3- 1000 UI de PMSG, IM, 48h pós-desmame e 500 UI de hCG, IM, 72h após o PMSG. O momento da ovulação foi detectado por ultra-sonografia transretal. A taxa de sincronização (ovulação até 48h após aplicação de hCG ou GnRH) dos grupos 2 e 3 (94,7%) foi maior (P<0,01) que no grupo controle (40%). Com o uso dos protocolos de sincronização de ovulação, as fêmeas tratadas apresentaram, em relação ao grupo controle, tendência de maior taxa de prenhez (95% vs. 70%; P<0,10) e similares intervalo do desmame ao estro (96,5± 3,0 vs. 130,2± 31,4h) e número de leitões nascidos vivos por fêmea gestante no primeiro cio pós-desmame (10,9± 0,8 vs. 12,0± 0,9). Dessa maneira, os protocolos de sincronização usados neste estudo foram eficientes em sincronizar a ovulação, e podem viabilizar o uso da inseminação artificial em horários predeterminados.

ORBITAL PERTURBATIONS OF THE GALILEAN SATELLITES DURING PLANETARY ENCOUNTERS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

POPULATION ESTIMATES

In dealing with population estimates, we need to determine first the reason for estimating the population. If we are dealing with a local situation, are we concerned with a local estimate? If we are dealing with a regional problem, are we concerned with a regional estimate? The blackbird problem is chiefly a regional problem, but we need to look at broader horizons than just local or regional situations. Are we dealing with a national problem? Is this problem a year-round one or is it a seasonal problem? We may want to know just purely the number of birds we are dealing with. Another reason for doing population estimates might be to determine the effectiveness of some lethal control method that has been employed. Fortunately, those species with which we are most concerned are those not on the endangered species list at the present time. Many Ohio farmers would like to see the Red-winged Blackbird on the endangered species list, I think, but it is not there. My particular interest in population estimates is to determine if we can develop an early warning system for the agriculturists, so that they can better anticipate the time they can expect damage from birds. A lot of methods have been tried in the past.