Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

Comparison of dietary fat and fatty acid intake estimated by the duplicate diet collection technique and estimated dietary records

Introduction A high saturated fatty acid intake is a well recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease development. More recently a high intake of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in combination with a low intake of the long chain n-3 PUFA, eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid has also been implicated as an important risk factor. Aim To compare total dietary fat and fatty acid intake measured by chemical analysis of duplicate diets with nutritional database analysis of estimated dietary records, collected over the same 3-day study period. Methods Total fat was analysed using soxhlet extraction and subsequently the individual fatty acid content of the diet was determined by gas chromatography. Estimated dietary records were analysed using a nutrient database which was supplemented with a selection of dishes commonly consumed by study participants. Results Bland & Altman statistical analysis demonstrated a lack of agreement between the two dietary assessment techniques for determining dietary fat and fatty acid intake. Conclusion The lack of agreement observed between dietary evaluation techniques may be attributed to inadequacies in either or both assessment techniques. This study highlights the difficulties that may be encountered when attempting to accurately evaluate dietary fat intake among the population.

Backward elimination model construction for regression and classification using leave-one-out criteria

A fundamental principle in practical nonlinear data modeling is the parsimonious principle of constructing the minimal model that explains the training data well. Leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation is often used to estimate generalization errors by choosing amongst different network architectures (M. Stone, "Cross validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions", J. R. Stast. Soc., Ser. B, 36, pp. 117-147, 1974). Based upon the minimization of LOO criteria of either the mean squares of LOO errors or the LOO misclassification rate respectively, we present two backward elimination algorithms as model post-processing procedures for regression and classification problems. The proposed backward elimination procedures exploit an orthogonalization procedure to enable the orthogonality between the subspace as spanned by the pruned model and the deleted regressor. Subsequently, it is shown that the LOO criteria used in both algorithms can be calculated via some analytic recursive formula, as derived in this contribution, without actually splitting the estimation data set so as to reduce computational expense. Compared to most other model construction methods, the proposed algorithms are advantageous in several aspects; (i) There are no tuning parameters to be optimized through an extra validation data set; (ii) The procedure is fully automatic without an additional stopping criteria; and (iii) The model structure selection is directly based on model generalization performance. The illustrative examples on regression and classification are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithms are viable post-processing methods to prune a model to gain extra sparsity and improved generalization.

Givens rotation based fast backward elimination algorithm for RBF neural network pruning

A fast backward elimination algorithm is introduced based on a QR decomposition and Givens transformations to prune radial-basis-function networks. Nodes are sequentially removed using an increment of error variance criterion. The procedure is terminated by using a prediction risk criterion so as to obtain a model structure with good generalisation properties. The algorithm can be used to postprocess radial basis centres selected using a k-means routine and, in this mode, it provides a hybrid supervised centre selection approach.

Gas-Phase Nucleophilic and Elimination Reactions in Simple Alkyl Nitrates

There has been increasing interest in the gas-phase reactivity of alkyl nitrates because of their well-known applications as explosives and because of then role in atmospheric and in marine processes This manuscript describes an experimental study by FT-ICR techniques of the gas-phase reactions of OH(-) and F(-) with methyl and ethyl Innate For methyl nitrate, the main reaction channel is found to be an elimination process promoted by abstraction of an a proton from the methyl group. Nucleophilic displacement of nitrate anion through an S(N)2 process at the carbon center Is also found to he an important reaction channel with methyl nitrate In ethyl nitrate, Ruination of NO(3)(-) is greatly enhanced and this is attributed to the ease of an E2-type elimination process promoted by proton abstraction at the beta position of the ethyl group. Theoretical calculations at the MP2/6-311+G(3df,2p)//MP2/6-31+G(d) level of theory ale consistent with the relative importance of the reaction channels and suggest that these reactions proceed through a double well potential The calculations also predict that nucleophilic attack by OH(-) at the nitrogen center (Sn2@N) is energetically the rueful ad pathway but experiments with (18)OH(-) showed no evidence for this channel. Single-point calculations reveal a strong preference for approach to the emboli center and may explain the lack of reactivity at the nitrogen center. Calculations were also carried out or NH(2)(-) and SH(-) to establish the reactivity pattern to provide a better understanding of environmentally relevant nitrate esters.

WTO-plus commitments on the elimination of export duties: evidence of a two-tier membership?

This descriptive paper examines the prevalence of ‘WTO-plus’ commitments in accession protocols of newly acceded Members, with a focus on commitments on the elimination of export duties. It presents preliminary results of a mapping exercise carried out with respect to these commitments and seeks to answer two questions. First, can any general conclusions be drawn as to the prevalence of these commitments or are they, per definition, country-specific. Second, has the political nature of the WTO accession process allowed for the creation of a two-tier membership. The first question is answered by relying on data gathered as part of the ongoing PhD-research project conducted by the author. The project aims to construct a typology of WTO-plus commitments to allow for a more detailed analysis of the relationship between these commitments and the baseline obligations in the covered agreements. The accession of China to the WTO is commonly considered as the prime example of the inclusion of WTO-plus obligations in accession protocols. The paper tries to answer the question whether this particular accession was truly unique in nature, or whether the inclusion of “Plus” obligations is less exceptional than often assumed. Additionally, the accession protocols of other recently acceded-Members are examined to establish whether the hypothesis holds. In the PhD-research project this comparative methodology will also be applied to map WTO-plus commitments in other areas, such as anti-dumping and transparency. The second question will be answered in two stages. In a preliminary stage, international institutional law will be used to by analyzing the way in which the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body has dealt with this type of WTO-plus commitment in its jurisprudence. The second stage deals with the question of hierarchy: Accession Protocols are negotiated with the WTO Membership, by each country willing to accede to the WTO. This poses questions as to their exact position in the system of WTO law. To establish whether evidence of a two-tier membership is present, one first has to turn back to the question whether Accession Protocols are a separate (or independent) legal instrument or an “integral part” of the WTO system of covered agreements. If newly acceded Members do not benefit from the general exceptions in order to balance their more stringent, WTO-plus, obligations, this may support the conclusion that the membership of the World Trade Organization is becoming, in fact, two-tiered.

Determination of the highest no-effect dose (HNED) and of the elimination pattern for cocaine in horses

Cocaine is one of the most widespread illegal stimulants utilized by the human population throughout the world. The aim of this study was to establish the highest no-effect dose (HNED) of cocaine on the spontaneous locomotor activity (SLA) of horses in a behavior chamber, and thereby to determine the maximal acceptable threshold of the urinary drug concentration in horses. Twelve English thoroughbred mares received 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, 0.08 or 0.12 mg kg(-1) cocaine i.v. or saline solution (control). It was noted that doses above 0.04 mg kg(-1) induced a significant increase in SLA (P < 0.05, Tukey's test). No significant increase in SLA was seen in the mares that received 0.03 mg kg(-1), but the animals showed important behavioral changes that did not occur after the 0.02 mg kg(-1) dose. It was concluded that the HNED of cocaine for horses in a behavior chamber is 0.02 mg kg(-1). After injection of this dose in five horses, urine samples were collected at predetermined intervals through vesical catheterization. The concentrations of cocaine, norcocaine, benzoylecgonine and ecgonine methyl ester were quantified by liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. Cocaine and norcocaine concentrations remained consistently below the level of detection. Benzoylecgonine reached a mean (+/- SEM) maximum concentration of 531.9 +/- 168.7 ng ml(-1) after 4 h, whereas ecgonine methyl ester peaked 2 h after injection at a concentration of 97.2 +/- 26.5 ng ml(-1). The maximum admissible concentration for cocaine and/or metabolites in the urine of horses is difficult to establish unequivocally because of the substantial individual variation in the drug elimination pattern observed in horses, which can be inferred by the large standard error of the means obtained. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Elimination and replacement of canine reservoir in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis

This work reviews studies about dog culling in Brazilian endemic areas for visceral leishmaniasis, as well as studies on dog replacement after euthanasia in areas where it is indicated as a control measure for this zoonosis.