Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Birth and expansion of innovation ecosystems: A case study of copper production

Despite the growing attention innovation ecosystems have received from scholars and practitioners, rather little is known about the crucial birth and expansion phases that these ecosystems experience. Through a single case in the complex product system (CoPS) environment, this paper investigates the development of an innovation ecosystem between 1980 and 2007. The findings demonstrate that the ecosystem’s birth phase includes sub-phases, namely, invention and start-up, where the ecosystem is reconfigured to find the appropriate form and the proper actors to satisfy the first customer’s requirements. Moreover, the duration of the expansion phase is found to be remarkably long, suggesting that within the CoPS setting, expansion may also include two or more sub-phases.

Chronicling the patient journey: Co-creating value with digital health ecosystems

With the introduction of the PCEHR (Personally Controlled Electronic Health Record), the Australian public is being asked to accept greater responsibility for the management of their health information. However, the implementation of the PCEHR has occasioned poor adoption rates underscored by criticism from stakeholders with concerns about transparency, accountability, privacy, confidentiality, governance, and limited capabilities. This study adopts an ethnographic lens to observe how information is created and used during the patient journey and the social factors impacting on the adoption of the PCEHR at the micro-level in order to develop a conceptual model that will encourage the sharing of patient information within the cycle of care. Objective: This study aims to firstly, establish a basic understanding of healthcare professional attitudes toward a national platform for sharing patient summary information in the form of a PCEHR. Secondly, the studies aims to map the flow of patient related information as it traverses a patient’s personal cycle of care. Thus, an ethnographic approach was used to bring a “real world” lens to information flow in a series of case studies in the Australian healthcare system to discover themes and issues that are important from the patient’s perspective. Design: Qualitative study utilising ethnographic case studies. Setting: Case studies were conducted at primary and allied healthcare professionals located in Brisbane Queensland between October 2013 and July 2014. Results: In the first dimension, it was identified that healthcare professionals’ concerns about trust and medico-legal issues related to patient control and information quality, and the lack of clinical value available with the PCEHR emerged as significant barriers to use. The second dimension of the study which attempted to map patient information flow identified information quality issues, clinical workflow inefficiencies and interoperability misconceptions resulting in duplication of effort, unnecessary manual processes, data quality and integrity issues and an over reliance on the understanding and communication skills of the patient. Conclusion: Opportunities for process efficiencies, improved data quality and increased patient safety emerge with the adoption of an appropriate information sharing platform. More importantly, large scale eHealth initiatives must be aligned with the value proposition of individual stakeholders in order to achieve widespread adoption. Leveraging an Australian national eHealth infrastructure and the PCEHR we offer a practical example of a service driven digital ecosystem suitable for co-creating value in healthcare.

Extent of dense native woodland and exotic weed infestation in the extensive grazing lands of the Upper Herbert and Upper Burdekin River Catchments of far north Queensland: results of a producer survey

The Mt Garnet Landcare Group commissioned a survey of landholders within the Upper Herbert and Upper Burdekin River Catchments to assess the density of native woodlands and to gauge the extent of exotic weed infestation. Twenty-four of 49 landholders responded, representing an area of nearly 500 000 ha or 47% of the total area. Dense native woodland covers 24% (>117 000 ha) of the area surveyed, while a further 30% (140 000 ha) supports moderately dense stands. The dense stands are largely confined to the highly fertile alluvial soils (26% dense woodland) and the lower fertility sandy-surfaced soils (33% or >96 000 ha). Moderate and dense infestations of exotic weeds, principally Lantana camara, occur on 54% (20 000 ha) of alluvial soils and on 13% of sandy-surfaced soils (39 000 ha), where praxelis (Praxelis clematidia) is the major weed. Basaltic soils have low levels of both dense woodland and exotic weed infestation. Some implications of the results are discussed.

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference.

Variability in Voluntary Intake of Loose Mineral Mix Supplements by Grazing Heifers

Loose mineral mix (LMM) supplements are often fed to ruminants in extensive grazing situations to provide minerals and nitrogen likely to be deficient in pasture. However a large proportion of animals offered such supplements may not consume any supplement, while among consumer animals the variability in supplement intake may be high (Wheeler et al., 1980; Dixon et al., 1996). Two experiments examined the distribution of intake of LMM supplements offered to heifers grazing in mob and paddock sizes representative of commercial cattle properties.

Response By Dairy Cows Grazing Tropical Grass Pasture To Barley or Sorghum Grain Based Concentrates and Lucerne Hay

This study investigated the responses by dairy cows grazing Callide Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana cv. Callide) pasture to supplementation with barley or sorghum based concentrates (5 grain:1 cotton seed meal) or barley concentrate plus lucerne (Medicago sativa) hay. It was conducted in summer - autumn 1999 with 20 spring calved cows in 4 treatments in 3 consecutive periods of 4 weeks. Rain grown pastures, heavily stocked at 4.4 cows/ha, provided 22 to 35 kg green DM and 14 to 16 kg green leaf DM/cow.day in periods 1 to 3. Supplements were fed individually twice daily after milking. Cows received 6 kg concentrate/day in period 1, increased by 1 kg/day as barley, sorghum or lucerne chaff in each of periods 2 and 3. The Control treatment received 6 kg barley concentrate in all 3 periods. Milk yields by cows fed sorghum were lower than for cows fed equivalent levels of barley-based concentrate (P<0.05). Faecal starch levels (14, 18 and 17%) for cows fed sorghum concentrate were much higher (P<0.01) than those of cows fed similar levels of barley (2.1, 1.2 and 1.7%) in each period respectively. Additional supplementation as lucerne chaff did not increase milk production (P>0.05). Increased concentrate supplementation did not alleviate the problem of low protein in milk produced by freshly calved Holstein-Friesian cows grazing tropical grass pasture in summer. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Influence of nitrogen based supplements on live weight, fertility and mortality of heifers grazing dry season native pasture

Supplements containing urea or biuret were fed in the dry season to yearling and two year old pregnant heifers grazing native spear grass pastures in north Queensland. Liveweight change and survival during the dry season and fertility in the following year were measured. In the first experiment during a relatively favourable dry season, supplementation significantly (P<0.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (5 vs. 32 kg). In the following year during a drought, supplement significantly (P<.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (32 vs. 41 kg) and significantly (P <0.01) reduced mortalities (23.5% vs. 5.2%) in pregnant and lactating heifers. The supplement had no significant effect on subsequent fertility in either experiment. 14th Biennial Conference.

Protein supplementation and growth enhancer strategies in successive years to maximise growth of Brahman cross steers grazing sown grass pastures on brigalow lands

A strategy comprising a winter/spring protein supplement, rumen modifier and hormonal growth promotant (Compudose 400) was used in either the first year (Tl), second year (T2), or in both years (T1+2) following weaning in Brahman cross steers as a means of increasing liveweight gain up to 2.5 years of age. T2 produced the heaviest final liveweight (544.7 kg) and highest overall liveweight gain (366.7 kg), but these were not significantly different from T1 (538.6 kg; 360.9 kg), or T1+2 (528.7 kg; 349.3 kg). However, final liveweight and overall liveweight gains of T1 and T2 but not T1+2 were significantly greater than for untreated (C) steers (504.9 kg; 325.2 kg, both P < 0.05). Regardless of the strategy imposed, liveweight and liveweight gain were enhanced, however final liveweights in each treatment were below the preferred minimum target liveweight (570-580 kg) for premium export markets. Treatment in both years gave no benefit over treatment in 1 year only. 19th Biennial Conference. 5-9 July 1992. LaTrobe University, Melbourne.

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

Integrating grazing and forage systems on marginal cropping lands

Planned grazing systems are being introduced to beef cattle enterprises across the marginal cropping lands of Queensland, as they are on more extensive grazing properties. Systems range from continuous grazing with opportunistic summer rest periods to cell systems with more than 60 paddocks. The aim of planned grazing is to increase production, improve sustainability and increase economic viability from both the pastured and cropping lands of a property. Managing the more intensive grazing systems on native or sown pastures with strategic summer and winter forage crops is a challenge under the variable rainfall conditions. Under favourable conditions, integrating summer and winter crops with summer-growing grass-based pastures offers a wider range of options for breeding, finishing and marketing cattle. The integration of pasture grazing systems with opportunistic forage cropping systems on marginal cropping lands is discussed, and a current research project assessing grazing systems is described.

Diet quality and liveweight gain of steers grazing Leucaena-grass pasture estimated with faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (F.NIRS)

Three drafts of Bos indicus cross steers (initially 178-216 kg) grazed Leucaena-grass pasture [Leucaena leucocephala subspecies glabrata cv. Cunningham with green panic (Panicum maximum cv. trichoglume)] from late winter through to autumn during three consecutive years in the Burnett region of south-east Queensland. Measured daily weight gain (DWGActual) of the steers was generally 0.7-1.1 kg/day during the summer months. Estimated intakes of metabolisable energy and dry matter (DM) were calculated from feeding standards as the intakes required by the steers to grow at the DWGActual. Diet attributes were predicted from near infrared reflectance spectroscopy spectra of faeces (F.NIRS) using established calibration equations appropriate for northern Australian forages. Inclusion of some additional reference samples from cattle consuming Leucaena diets into F.NIRS calibrations based on grass and herbaceous legume-grass pastures improved prediction of the proportion of Leucaena in the diet. Mahalanobis distance values supported the hypothesis that the F.NIRS predictions of diet crude protein concentration and DM digestibility (DMD) were acceptable. F.NIRS indicated that the percentage of Leucaena in the diet varied widely (10-99%). Diet crude protein concentration and DMD were usually high, averaging 12.4 and 62%, respectively, and were related asymptotically to the percentage of Leucaena in the diet (R2 = 0.48 and 0.33, respectively). F.NIRS calibrations for DWG were not satisfactory to predict this variable from an individual faecal sample since the s.e. of prediction were 0.33-0.40 kg/day. Cumulative steer liveweight (LW) predicted from F.NIRS DWG calibrations, which had been previously developed with tropical grass and grass-herbaceous legume pastures, greatly overestimated the measured steer LW; therefore, these calibrations were not useful. Cumulative steer LW predicted from a modified F.NIRS DWG calibration, which included data from the present study, was strongly correlated (R2 = 0.95) with steer LW but overestimated LW by 19-31 kg after 8 months. Additional reference data are needed to develop robust F.NIRS calibrations to encompass the diversity of Leucaena pastures of northern Australia. In conclusion, the experiment demonstrated that F.NIRS could improve understanding of diet quality and nutrient intake of cattle grazing Leucaena-grass pasture, and the relationships between nutrient supply and cattle growth.

Simulating pasture growth rates in Australian and New Zealand grazing systems

DairyMod, EcoMod, and the SGS Pasture Model are mechanistic biophysical models developed to explore scenarios in grazing systems. The aim of this manuscript was to test the ability of the models to simulate net herbage accumulation rates of ryegrass-based pastures across a range of environments and pasture management systems in Australia and New Zealand. Measured monthly net herbage accumulation rate and accumulated yield data were collated from ten grazing system experiments at eight sites ranging from cool temperate to subtropical environments. The local climate, soil, pasture species, and management (N fertiliser, irrigation, and grazing or cutting pattern) were described in the model for each site, and net herbage accumulation rates modelled. The model adequately simulated the monthly net herbage accumulation rates across the range of environments, based on the summary statistics and observed patterns of seasonal growth, particularly when the variability in measured herbage accumulation rates was taken into account. Agreement between modelled and observed growth rates was more accurate and precise in temperate than in subtropical environments, and in winter and summer than in autumn and spring. Similarly, agreement between predicted and observed accumulated yields was more accurate than monthly net herbage accumulation. Different temperature parameters were used to describe the growth of perennial ryegrass cultivars and annual ryegrass; these differences were in line with observed growth patterns and breeding objectives. Results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in measuring pasture growth rates and model limitations.

Molecular and serological detection of A. centrale- and A. marginale-infected cattle grazing within an endemic area

A reverse line blot hybridization (RLB) one-stage nested PCR (nPCR) for Anaplasma centrale and a nested PCR for Anaplasma marginale were used to detect infected cattle grazing within an endemic region in Israel. A novel set of PCR primers and oligonucleotide probes based on a 16S ribosomal RNA gene was designed for RLB detection of both Anaplasma species, and the performance of the molecular assays compared. The immunofluorescent antibody test (IFA) was used to detect antibodies to both Anaplasma species, whereas, a highly sensitive and specific competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) was used to detect antibodies in A. centrale-vaccinated cattle. The RLB and the nested PCR procedures showed bacteremia with sensitivity of 50 infected erythrocytes per milliliter. Up to 93% of the A. centrale vaccinates carried specific antibodies that were detected by cELISA, and up to 71% of the vaccinated cattle were found to be naturally infected with A. marginale according to the PCR and the RLB assays. Nevertheless, no severe outbreaks of A. marginale infection occurred among vaccinated herds in this endemic region. It appears that both, molecular tools and serology are useful for evaluation of the vaccine efficacy. In the light of wide natural field infection with A. marginale, strong recommendations to continue the A. centrale vaccination program regime will continue until a new generation of non-blood-based vaccine will be developed.

Using automated supplementation systems to meet growth targets for grazing sheep

Remote drafting technology now available for sheep allows targeted supplementation of individuals within a grazing flock. This paper reports results of three experiments. Experiment 1 examined the weight change of Merino wethers allowed access to either lupin grain or whole cottonseed 0, 1, 2 or 7 days/week for 6 weeks. Experiment 2 examined the weight change of Merino wethers allowed access to either lupins or a sorghum + cottonseed meal (CSM) supplement 0, 2, 4 or 7 days/week for 8 weeks. Experiment 3 investigated the relationship between five allocations of trough space at the supplement self-feeders (5–50 cm/sheep) and the weight change of Merino wethers allowed access to lupins 1 day/week for 8 weeks. In all experiments, the Merino wethers had free access as a single group to drinking water and low quality hay in a large group pen and were allowed access to supplement once per day on their scheduled days of access. No water was available in the areas containing supplement, but one-way flow gates allowed animals to return to the group pen in their own time. There was a linear response in growth rate to increased frequency of access to lupins in Experiments 1 and 2, with each additional day of access increasing liveweight gain by 26 and 21 g/day, respectively. Similarly, the response to the sorghum + CSM supplement was linear, although significantly lower (P < 0.05), at 12 g/day. Providing access to whole cottonseed resulted in no significant change in growth rate compared with the control animals. In Experiment 3, decreasing trough space from 50 to 5 cm/sheep had no effect on sheep liveweight change. It was concluded that the relationships developed here, for growth response to increased frequency of access to lupins or a sorghum + CSM supplement, could be used to indicate the most appropriate frequency of access to supplement, through a remote drafting unit, to achieve sheep weight change targets. Also, that a trough space of 5 cm/sheep appears adequate in this supplementation system.