Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Exercise alone is not enough : weight loss also needs a healthy (Mediterranean) diet?

Objective: In the majority of exercise intervention studies, the aggregate reported weight loss is often small. The efficacy of exercise as a weight loss tool remains in question. The aim of the present study was to investigate the variability in appetite and body weight when participants engaged in a supervised and monitored exercise programme. ---------- Design: Fifty-eight obese men and women (BMI = 31·8 ± 4·5 kg/m2) were prescribed exercise to expend approximately 2092 kJ (500 kcal) per session, five times a week at an intensity of 70 % maximum heart rate for 12 weeks under supervised conditions in the research unit. Body weight and composition, total daily energy intake and various health markers were measured at weeks 0, 4, 8 and 12. ---------- Results: Mean reduction in body weight (3·2 ± 1·98 kg) was significant (P < 0·001); however, there was large individual variability (−14·7 to +2·7 kg). This large variability could be largely attributed to the differences in energy intake over the 12-week intervention. Those participants who failed to lose meaningful weight increased their food intake and reduced intake of fruits and vegetables. ---------- Conclusion: These data have demonstrated that even when exercise energy expenditure is high, a healthy diet is still required for weight loss to occur in many people.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered intervention for physical activity and diet

Background: Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a “Usual Care” (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). Conclusions/Significance: This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the ‘Usual Care’ brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile.

Effect of selected feed meals and starches on diet digestibility in the mud crab, Scylla serrata

The present study examined the capacity of the mud crab, Scylla serrata to digest experimental diets that contained different animal and plant-based feed meals or different levels or types of starch. The apparent dry matter digestibility (ADMD) coefficients for all feed meals tested in the first part of this study, except meat meal, were similar (78–88%). Crude protein digestibility (ACPD) coefficients for all feed meals were relatively high, with values ranging from 86% to 96%. Cotton seed meal, poultry meal, canola meal, fishmeal, soybean meal and lupin meal had similar gross energy digestibility (AGED) values (P>0.05) ranging from 84% to 89%. In the second part of this study, the impact of selected starches on the digestibility of fishmeal-based formulated diets was assessed. The apparent starch digestibility (ASD) of wheat starch decreased significantly as the inclusion level was increased from 15% to 60%, however, there was no significant effect on ACPD values. At a 30% inclusion level, the ASD of diets containing different starches decreased in the order corn>wheat>potato=rice. Moreover, ACPD values were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the diets containing corn or rice starch than in those containing wheat or potato starches.

Associations among body size dissatisfaction, perceived dietary control, and diet history in African American and European American women

European American (EA) women report greater body dissatisfaction and less dietary control than do African American (AA) women. This study investigated whether ethnic differences in dieting history contributed to differences in body dissatisfaction and dietary control, or to differential changes that may occur during weight loss and regain. Eighty-nine EA and AA women underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure body composition and completed questionnaires to assess body dissatisfaction and dietary control before, after, and one year following, a controlled weight-loss intervention. While EA women reported a more extensive dieting history than AA women, this difference did not contribute to ethnic differences in body dissatisfaction and perceived dietary control. During weight loss, body satisfaction improved more for AA women, and during weight regain, dietary self-efficacy worsened to a greater degree for EA women. Ethnic differences in dieting history did not contribute significantly to these differential changes. Although ethnic differences in body image and dietary control are evident prior to weight loss, and some change differentially by ethnic group during weight loss and regain, differences in dieting history do not contribute significantly to ethnic differences in body image and dietary control.

Design Optimisation of UAVs Systems achieved on a Framework Environment via Evolution and Game Theory

Over recent years, Unmanned Air Vehicles or UAVs have become a powerful tool for reconnaissance and surveillance tasks. These vehicles are now available in a broad size and capability range and are intended to fly in regions where the presence of onboard human pilots is either too risky or unnecessary. This paper describes the formulation and application of a design framework that supports the complex task of multidisciplinary design optimisation of UAVs systems via evolutionary computation. The framework includes a Graphical User Interface (GUI), a robust Evolutionary Algorithm optimiser named HAPEA, several design modules, mesh generators and post-processing capabilities in an integrated platform. These population –based algorithms such as EAs are good for cases problems where the search space can be multi-modal, non-convex or discontinuous, with multiple local minima and with noise, and also problems where we look for multiple solutions via Game Theory, namely a Nash equilibrium point or a Pareto set of non-dominated solutions. The application of the methodology is illustrated on conceptual and detailed multi-criteria and multidisciplinary shape design problems. Results indicate the practicality and robustness of the framework to find optimal shapes and trade—offs between the disciplinary analyses and to produce a set of non dominated solutions of an optimal Pareto front to the designer.

The effect of graded levels of exercise on energy intake and balance in free-living men, consuming their normal diet

Objective: To assess the effect of graded increases in exercised-induced energy expenditure (EE) on appetite, energy intake (EI), total daily EE and body weight in men living in their normal environment and consuming their usual diets. Design: Within-subject, repeated measures design. Six men (mean (s.d.) age 31.0 (5.0) y; weight 75.1 (15.96) kg; height 1.79 (0.10) m; body mass index (BMI) 23.3(2.4) kg/m2), were each studied three times during a 9 day protocol, corresponding to prescriptions of no exercise, (control) (Nex; 0 MJ/day), medium exercise level (Mex; ~1.6 MJ/day) and high exercise level (Hex; ~3.2 MJ/day). On days 1-2 subjects were given a medium fat (MF) maintenance diet (1.6 ´ resting metabolic rate (RMR)). Measurements: On days 3-9 subjects self-recorded dietary intake using a food diary and self-weighed intake. EE was assessed by continual heart rate monitoring, using the modified FLEX method. Subjects' HR (heart rate) was individually calibrated against submaximal VO2 during incremental exercise tests at the beginning and end of each 9 day study period. Respiratory exchange was measured by indirect calorimetry. Subjects completed hourly hunger ratings during waking hours to record subjective sensations of hunger and appetite. Body weight was measured daily. Results: EE amounted to 11.7, 12.9 and 16.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=48.26; P<0.001 (s.e.d=0.55)) on the Nex, Mex and Hex treatments, respectively. The corresponding values for EI were 11.6, 11.8 and 11.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=0.10; P=0.910 (s.e.d.=0.10)), respectively. There were no treatment effects on hunger, appetite or body weight, but there was evidence of weight loss on the Hex treatment. Conclusion: Increasing EE did not lead to compensation of EI over 7 days. However, total daily EE tended to decrease over time on the two exercise treatments. Lean men appear able to tolerate a considerable negative energy balance, induced by exercise, over 7 days without invoking compensatory increases in EI.