Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Locally Efficient Estimation with Current Status Data and High Dimensional Covariates

In biostatistical applications, interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of time T between two consecutive events. If the initial event time is observed and the subsequent event time is only known to be larger or smaller than an observed monitoring time, then the data is described by the well known singly-censored current status model, also known as interval censored data, case I. We extend this current status model by allowing the presence of a time-dependent process, which is partly observed and allowing C to depend on T through the observed part of this time-dependent process. Because of the high dimension of the covariate process, no globally efficient estimators exist with a good practical performance at moderate sample sizes. We follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling the censoring variable, given the time-variable and the covariate-process, i.e., the missingness process, under the restriction that it satisfied coarsening at random. We propose a generalization of the simple current status estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals of the distribution of T, which is based on an estimate of the missingness. In this estimator the covariates enter only through the estimate of the missingness process. Due to the coarsening at random assumption, the estimator has the interesting property that if we estimate the missingness process more nonparametrically, then we improve its efficiency. We show that by local estimation of an optimal model or optimal function of the covariates for the missingness process, the generalized current status estimator for smooth functionals become locally efficient; meaning it is efficient if the right model or covariate is consistently estimated and it is consistent and asymptotically normal in general. Estimation of the optimal model requires estimation of the conditional distribution of T, given the covariates. Any (prior) knowledge of this conditional distribution can be used at this stage without any risk of losing root-n consistency. We also propose locally efficient one step estimators. Finally, we show some simulation results.

Efficiency of the Sieved-NPMLE in CAR-Missing Data Models

We consider nonparametric missing data models for which the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random and which allow complete observations on the variable X of interest. W show that beyond some empirical process conditions the only essential condition for efficiency of an NPMLE of the distribution of X is that the regions associated with incomplete observations on X contain enough complete observations. This is heuristically explained by describing the EM-algorithm. We provide identifiably of the self-consistency equation and efficiency of the NPMLE in order to make this statement rigorous. The usual kind of differentiability conditions in the proof are avoided by using an identity which holds for the NPMLE of linear parameters in convex models. We provide a bivariate censoring application in which the condition and hence the NPMLE fails, but where other estimators, not based on the NPMLE principle, are highly inefficient. It is shown how to slightly reduce the data so that the conditions hold for the reduced data. The conditions are verified for the univariate censoring, double censored, and Ibragimov-Has'minski models.

Inference on Survival Data with Covariate Measurement Error - An Imputation-based Approach

We propose a new method for fitting proportional hazards models with error-prone covariates. Regression coefficients are estimated by solving an estimating equation that is the average of the partial likelihood scores based on imputed true covariates. For the purpose of imputation, a linear spline model is assumed on the baseline hazard. We discuss consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators, and propose a stochastic approximation scheme to obtain the estimates. The algorithm is easy to implement, and reduces to the ordinary Cox partial likelihood approach when the measurement error has a degenerative distribution. Simulations indicate high efficiency and robustness. We consider the special case where error-prone replicates are available on the unobserved true covariates. As expected, increasing the number of replicate for the unobserved covariates increases efficiency and reduces bias. We illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group clinical trial where a genetic marker, c-myc expression level, is subject to measurement error.

Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results

Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections.

Consistency of thromboelastometry analysis under scrutiny: Results of a systematic evaluation within and between analysers.

While the use of thromboelastometry analysis (ROTEM®) in evaluation of haemostasis is rapidly increasing, important validity parameters of testing remain inadequately examined. We aimed to study systematically the consistency of thromboelastometry parameters within individual tests regarding measurements between different analysers, between different channels of the same analyser, between morning and afternoon measurements (circadian variation), and if measured four weeks apart. Citrated whole blood samples from 40 healthy volunteers were analysed with two analysers in parallel. EXTEM, INTEM, FIBTEM, HEPTEM and APTEM tests were conducted. A Bland-Altman comparison was performed and homogeneity of variances was tested using the pitman test. P-value ranges were used to classify the level of homogeneity (p<0.15 - low homogeneity, p = 0.15 to 0.5 - intermediate homogeneity, p>0.5 high homogeneity). Less than half of all comparisons made showed high homogeneity of variances (p>0.5) and in about a fifth of comparisons data distributions were heterogeneous (p<0.15). There was no clear pattern for homogeneity. On average, comparisons of MCF, ML and LI30 measurements tended to be better, but none of the tests assessed outperformed another. In conclusion, systematic investigation reveals large differences in the results of some thromboelastometry parameters and lack of consistency. Clinicians and scientists should take these inconsistencies into account and focus on parameters with a higher homogeneity such as MCF.

Lake surface water temperatures of European Alpine lakes (1989–2013) based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1 km data set

Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989–2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of −0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and −0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.

Data Accuracy in Medical Record Abstraction

Clinical Research Data Quality Literature Review and Pooled Analysis We present a literature review and secondary analysis of data accuracy in clinical research and related secondary data uses. A total of 93 papers meeting our inclusion criteria were categorized according to the data processing methods. Quantitative data accuracy information was abstracted from the articles and pooled. Our analysis demonstrates that the accuracy associated with data processing methods varies widely, with error rates ranging from 2 errors per 10,000 files to 5019 errors per 10,000 fields. Medical record abstraction was associated with the highest error rates (70–5019 errors per 10,000 fields). Data entered and processed at healthcare facilities had comparable error rates to data processed at central data processing centers. Error rates for data processed with single entry in the presence of on-screen checks were comparable to double entered data. While data processing and cleaning methods may explain a significant amount of the variability in data accuracy, additional factors not resolvable here likely exist. Defining Data Quality for Clinical Research: A Concept Analysis Despite notable previous attempts by experts to define data quality, the concept remains ambiguous and subject to the vagaries of natural language. This current lack of clarity continues to hamper research related to data quality issues. We present a formal concept analysis of data quality, which builds on and synthesizes previously published work. We further posit that discipline-level specificity may be required to achieve the desired definitional clarity. To this end, we combine work from the clinical research domain with findings from the general data quality literature to produce a discipline-specific definition and operationalization for data quality in clinical research. While the results are helpful to clinical research, the methodology of concept analysis may be useful in other fields to clarify data quality attributes and to achieve operational definitions. Medical Record Abstractor’s Perceptions of Factors Impacting the Accuracy of Abstracted Data Medical record abstraction (MRA) is known to be a significant source of data errors in secondary data uses. Factors impacting the accuracy of abstracted data are not reported consistently in the literature. Two Delphi processes were conducted with experienced medical record abstractors to assess abstractor’s perceptions about the factors. The Delphi process identified 9 factors that were not found in the literature, and differed with the literature by 5 factors in the top 25%. The Delphi results refuted seven factors reported in the literature as impacting the quality of abstracted data. The results provide insight into and indicate content validity of a significant number of the factors reported in the literature. Further, the results indicate general consistency between the perceptions of clinical research medical record abstractors and registry and quality improvement abstractors. Distributed Cognition Artifacts on Clinical Research Data Collection Forms Medical record abstraction, a primary mode of data collection in secondary data use, is associated with high error rates. Distributed cognition in medical record abstraction has not been studied as a possible explanation for abstraction errors. We employed the theory of distributed representation and representational analysis to systematically evaluate cognitive demands in medical record abstraction and the extent of external cognitive support employed in a sample of clinical research data collection forms. We show that the cognitive load required for abstraction in 61% of the sampled data elements was high, exceedingly so in 9%. Further, the data collection forms did not support external cognition for the most complex data elements. High working memory demands are a possible explanation for the association of data errors with data elements requiring abstractor interpretation, comparison, mapping or calculation. The representational analysis used here can be used to identify data elements with high cognitive demands.

Determinants of government consumption expenditure in developing countries : a panel data analysis

The paper focuses on the recent pattern of government consumption expenditure in developing countries and estimates the determinants which have influenced government expenditure. Using a panel data set for 111 developing countries from 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that political and institutional variables as well as governance variables significantly influence government expenditure. Among other results, the paper finds new evidence of Wagner's law which states that peoples' demand for service and willingness to pay is income-elastic hence the expansion of public economy is influenced by the greater economic affluence of a nation (Cameron1978). Corruption is found to be influential in explaining the public expenditure of developing countries. On the contrary, size of the economy and fractionalization are found to have significant negative association with government expenditure. In addition, the study finds evidence that public expenditure significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other form of governance.

Improving Wishart Classification of Polarimetric SAR Data Using the Hopfield Neural Network Optimization Approach.

This paper proposes the optimization relaxation approach based on the analogue Hopfield Neural Network (HNN) for cluster refinement of pre-classified Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) image data. We consider the initial classification provided by the maximum-likelihood classifier based on the complex Wishart distribution, which is then supplied to the HNN optimization approach. The goal is to improve the classification results obtained by the Wishart approach. The classification improvement is verified by computing a cluster separability coefficient and a measure of homogeneity within the clusters. During the HNN optimization process, for each iteration and for each pixel, two consistency coefficients are computed, taking into account two types of relations between the pixel under consideration and its corresponding neighbors. Based on these coefficients and on the information coming from the pixel itself, the pixel under study is re-classified. Different experiments are carried out to verify that the proposed approach outperforms other strategies, achieving the best results in terms of separability and a trade-off with the homogeneity preserving relevant structures in the image. The performance is also measured in terms of computational central processing unit (CPU) times.

A Coreference Service for Enterprise Application Integration using Linked Data

The use of semantic and Linked Data technologies for Enterprise Application Integration (EAI) is increasing in recent years. Linked Data and Semantic Web technologies such as the Resource Description Framework (RDF) data model provide several key advantages over the current de-facto Web Service and XML based integration approaches. The flexibility provided by representing the data in a more versatile RDF model using ontologies enables avoiding complex schema transformations and makes data more accessible using Web standards, preventing the formation of data silos. These three benefits represent an edge for Linked Data-based EAI. However, work still has to be performed so that these technologies can cope with the particularities of the EAI scenarios in different terms, such as data control, ownership, consistency, or accuracy. The first part of the paper provides an introduction to Enterprise Application Integration using Linked Data and the requirements imposed by EAI to Linked Data technologies focusing on one of the problems that arise in this scenario, the coreference problem, and presents a coreference service that supports the use of Linked Data in EAI systems. The proposed solution introduces the use of a context that aggregates a set of related identities and mappings from the identities to different resources that reside in distinct applications and provide different views or aspects of the same entity. A detailed architecture of the Coreference Service is presented explaining how it can be used to manage the contexts, identities, resources, and applications which they relate to. The paper shows how the proposed service can be utilized in an EAI scenario using an example involving a dashboard that integrates data from different systems and the proposed workflow for registering and resolving identities. As most enterprise applications are driven by business processes and involve legacy data, the proposed approach can be easily incorporated into enterprise applications.

Spatial analysis of geometric design consistency and road sight distance

Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.

Liquid–Liquid, Vapor–Liquid, and Vapor–Liquid–Liquid Equilibrium Data for the Water–n-Butanol–Cyclohexane System at Atmospheric Pressure: Experimental Determination and Correlation

The temperature and the composition of the vapor–liquid–liquid equilibrium (VLLE) and the vapor–liquid equilibrium (VLE) of a ternary mixture of water–n-butanol–cyclohexane were measured at atmospheric pressure (101.32 kPa) in a modified dynamic recirculating still. As found in the literature, the experimental data obtained reveal a ternary azeotrope at 341.86 K with a mole fraction composition of 0.281, 0.034, and 0.685 water, n-butanol, and cyclohexane, respectively. The liquid–liquid equilibrium (LLE) compositions were measured at a constant temperature of 313.15 K and compared with data in the literature collected at other temperatures. Thermodynamic consistency of all the experimental data was demonstrated. The universal quasichemical (UNIQUAC) and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) thermodynamic models were used to correlate the VLE and LLE data, while the original universal functional (UNIFAC) model was used to compare the predicted data.

Novas tendências, o big data: deteção de fraudes e transações no comércio local: SAF-T com tecnologia big data

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Tecnologia do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Desenvolvimento de Software e Sistemas Interactivos, realizada sob a orientação científica da categoria profissional do orientador Doutor Eurico Ribeiro Lopes, do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco.

Mineral and chemical composition of hydrothermally altered rocks and sediments from the Middle Valley, ODP Leg 139 data

The Middle Valley segment at the northern end of the Juan de Fuca Ridge is a deep extensional rift blanketed with 200-500 m of Pleistocene turbiditic sediment. Sites 857 and 858 were drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 139 to determine whether these two sites were hydrologically linked end members of an active hydrothermal circulation system. Site 858 was placed in an area of active hydrothermal discharge with fluids up to 270°C venting through anhydrite-bearing mounds on top of altered sediment. The shallow basement of fine-grained basalt that underlies the vents at Site 858 is interpreted as a seamount that was subsequently buried by turbidites. Site 857 was placed 1.6 km south of the Site 858 vents in a zone of high heat flow and numerous seismically imaged ridge-parallel faults. Drilling at Site 857 encountered sediments that are increasingly altered with depth and that overlie a series of mafic sills at depths of 460-940 m below sea floor. Sill margins and adjacent baked sediment are highly altered to magnesian chlorite and crosscut with veins filled with quartz, chlorite, sulfides, epidote, and wairakite. The sill interiors vary from slightly altered, with unaltered plagioclase and clinopyroxene in a mesostasis replaced by chlorite, to local zones of intense alteration and brecciation. In these latter zones, the sill interiors are pervasively replaced by chlorite, epidote, quartz, pyrite, titanite, and rare actinolite. The most complete replacement is associated with brecciated horizons with low recovery and slickensides on fracture surfaces, which we interpret as intersections between faults and the sills. Geochemically, the alteration of the sill complex is reflected in significant whole-rock depletions in Ca, Sr, and Na with corresponding enrichments in Mg, Al, and most metals. The latter results from the formation of conspicuous sulfide poikiloblasts. In contrast, metamorphism of the Site 858 seamount includes incomplete albitization of plagioclase phenocrysts and replacement of sparse mafic phenocrysts. Much of the basement alteration at Site 858 is confined to crosscutting veins except for a highly altered and veined horizon at the contact between basaltic basement and the overlying sediment. The sill complex at Site 857 is more highly depleted in 18O (d18O = 2.4 per mil - 4.7 per mil) and more pervasively replaced by secondary minerals relative to the extrusives at Site 858 (d18O = 4.5 per mil - 5.5 per mil). There is no evidence of significant albitization of the plagioclase at Site 857, suggesting high Ca/Na in the pore fluids. Fluid-inclusion data from hydrothermal minerals in altered mafic rocks and veins at Sites 857 and 858 show a consistency of homogenization temperatures, varying from 245 to 270°C, which is within the range of temperatures observed for the fluids venting at Site 858. The consistency of the fluid inclusion temperatures, the lack of albitization within the Site 857 sills, and the apparently low water/rock ratio collectively suggest that the sill complex at Site 857 is in thermal equilibrium and being altered by a highly evolved Ca-rich fluid similar to the fluids now venting at Site 858. The alteration evident in these two deep crustal drillsites is a result of the ongoing hydrothermal circulation and is consistent with downhole logging results, instrumented borehole results, and hydrothermal fluid chemistry. The pervasive alteration of the laterally extensive sill-sediment complex at Site 857 determines the chemistry of the fluids that are venting at Site 858. The limited alteration of the Site 858 lavas suggests that this basement edifice acts as a penetrator or ventilator for the regional hydrothermal reservoir with much of the flow focussed at the highly altered and veined sediment-basalt contact.