Neural networks for power systems alarm handling

A multi-layered architecture of self-organizing neural networks is being developed as part of an intelligent alarm processor to analyse a stream of power grid fault messages and provide a suggested diagnosis of the fault location. Feedback concerning the accuracy of the diagnosis is provided by an object-oriented grid simulator which acts as an external supervisor to the learning system. The utilization of artificial neural networks within this environment should result in a powerful generic alarm processor which will not require extensive training by a human expert to produce accurate results.

Dynamic knowledge representation in connectionist systems

One of the most pervading concepts underlying computational models of information processing in the brain is linear input integration of rate coded uni-variate information by neurons. After a suitable learning process this results in neuronal structures that statically represent knowledge as a vector of real valued synaptic weights. Although this general framework has contributed to the many successes of connectionism, in this paper we argue that for all but the most basic of cognitive processes, a more complex, multi-variate dynamic neural coding mechanism is required - knowledge should not be spacially bound to a particular neuron or group of neurons. We conclude the paper with discussion of a simple experiment that illustrates dynamic knowledge representation in a spiking neuron connectionist system.

International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Approximation of non-autonomous dynamic systems by continuous time recurrent neural networks

This work provides a framework for the approximation of a dynamic system of the form x˙=f(x)+g(x)u by dynamic recurrent neural network. This extends previous work in which approximate realisation of autonomous dynamic systems was proven. Given certain conditions, the first p output neural units of a dynamic n-dimensional neural model approximate at a desired proximity a p-dimensional dynamic system with n>p. The neural architecture studied is then successfully implemented in a nonlinear multivariable system identification case study.

Inverting recurrent neural networks for internal model control of nonlinear systems

In this paper, we show how a set of recently derived theoretical results for recurrent neural networks can be applied to the production of an internal model control system for a nonlinear plant. The results include determination of the relative order of a recurrent neural network and invertibility of such a network. A closed loop controller is produced without the need to retrain the neural network plant model. Stability of the closed-loop controller is also demonstrated.

Internal model control of nonlinear systems through the inversion of recurrent neural networks

Recurrent neural networks can be used for both the identification and control of nonlinear systems. This paper takes a previously derived set of theoretical results about recurrent neural networks and applies them to the task of providing internal model control for a nonlinear plant. Using the theoretical results, we show how an inverse controller can be produced from a neural network model of the plant, without the need to train an additional network to perform the inverse control.

The control of dynamical systems by neural networks

In this paper the use of neural networks for the control of dynamical systems is considered. Both identification and feedback control aspects are discussed as well as the types of system for which neural networks can provide a useful technique. Multi-layer Perceptron and Radial Basis function neural network types are looked at, with an emphasis on the latter. It is shown how basis function centre selection is a critical part of the implementation process and that multivariate clustering algorithms can be an extremely useful tool for finding centres.

A model-based PID controller for Hammerstein systems using B-spline neural networks

In this paper, a new model-based proportional–integral–derivative (PID) tuning and controller approach is introduced for Hammerstein systems that are identified on the basis of the observational input/output data. The nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system is modelled using a B-spline neural network. The control signal is composed of a PID controller, together with a correction term. Both the parameters in the PID controller and the correction term are optimized on the basis of minimizing the multistep ahead prediction errors. In order to update the control signal, the multistep ahead predictions of the Hammerstein system based on B-spline neural networks and the associated Jacobian matrix are calculated using the de Boor algorithms, including both the functional and derivative recursions. Numerical examples are utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

B-spline neural networks based PID controller for Hammerstein systems

A new PID tuning and controller approach is introduced for Hammerstein systems based on input/output data. A B-spline neural network is used to model the nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system. The control signal is composed of a PID controller together with a correction term. In order to update the control signal, the multistep ahead predictions of the Hammerstein system based on the B-spline neural networks and the associated Jacobians matrix are calculated using the De Boor algorithms including both the functional and derivative recursions. A numerical example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

Markov models of aging: theory and practice

We review and structure some of the mathematical and statistical models that have been developed over the past half century to grapple with theoretical and experimental questions about the stochastic development of aging over the life course. We suggest that the mathematical models are in large part addressing the problem of partitioning the randomness in aging: How does aging vary between individuals, and within an individual over the lifecourse? How much of the variation is inherently related to some qualities of the individual, and how much is entirely random? How much of the randomness is cumulative, and how much is merely short-term flutter? We propose that recent lines of statistical inquiry in survival analysis could usefully grapple with these questions, all the more so if they were more explicitly linked to the relevant mathematical and biological models of aging. To this end, we describe points of contact among the various lines of mathematical and statistical research. We suggest some directions for future work, including the exploration of information-theoretic measures for evaluating components of stochastic models as the basis for analyzing experiments and anchoring theoretical discussions of aging.

Complex-valued b-spline neural networks for modelling and inverse of wiener systems

Communication signal processing applications often involve complex-valued (CV) functional representations for signals and systems. CV artificial neural networks have been studied theoretically and applied widely in nonlinear signal and data processing [1–11]. Note that most artificial neural networks cannot be automatically extended from the real-valued (RV) domain to the CV domain because the resulting model would in general violate Cauchy-Riemann conditions, and this means that the training algorithms become unusable. A number of analytic functions were introduced for the fully CV multilayer perceptrons (MLP) [4]. A fully CV radial basis function (RBF) nework was introduced in [8] for regression and classification applications. Alternatively, the problem can be avoided by using two RV artificial neural networks, one processing the real part and the other processing the imaginary part of the CV signal/system. A even more challenging problem is the inverse of a CV