Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

An analysis of the timeliness and nature of profit warnings in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) has severely impacted the financial position and performance of many companies internationally. Because of its severity and associated increase in uncertainty it challenges the effectiveness of existing disclosure regulation. Australia provides a unique environment in which to test the effects of the GFC on corporate disclosure because statutory rules mandate the timely disclosure of ‘price-sensitive’ information (ASX Rule 3.1) by listed entities. Exploiting this institutional setting we investigate the determinants and timeliness of profit warnings issued by the top 500 ASX-listed firms with profit declines in the 2009 fiscal year. Our findings show that firms behave differently with regard to the issuance of profit warnings: larger and more indebted firms are more likely to issue a profit warning and tend to be timelier; surprisingly, poorer performing firms tend to release the news more quickly and this might be attributed to an increasing threat of litigation. Our analysis of profit warning determinants shows interesting results with the presence of asset impairments hindering the early disclosure of profit warnings. Our findings are novel for two main reasons: first, we provide insights into the impact of global financial crisis on profit warning behaviour; second, we are the first to examine the differential impact of alternative features of profit warnings on disclosure timeliness. The findings have implications for regulators in determining compliance with continuous disclosure rules and more broadly, for market participants in interpreting profit warnings.

Institutional investors, risk/return and corporate governance : practical lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

The global grown in institutional investors means that firms can no longer ignore their influence in capital markets. However, not all institutional investors have the same motives to influence the firms they invest in. Institution investors' ability to influence management depends on the size of their investment and whether they have any business relations with the firm. Using a sample of Australian firms from 2006 to 2008, our empirical results show that the proportion of a company's shares held by institutional investors is positively associated with firm governance ratings, risk and profitability. This study shows that a positive association between risk and return is associated with large active institutional ownership, which we interpret as shareholders with sufficient power to pressure management to increase short-term profits.

Amplitude of accommodation in type 1 diabetes

Purpose People with diabetes have accelerated age-related biometric ocular changes compared with people without diabetes. We determined the effect of Type 1 diabetes on amplitude of accommodation. Method There were 43 participants (33 ± 8 years) with type 1 diabetes and 32 (34 ± 8 years) age-balanced participants without diabetes. There was no significant difference in the mean equivalent refractive error and visual acuity between the two groups. Amplitude of accommodation was measured using two techniques: objective — by determining the accommodative response to a stimulus in a COAS-HD wavefront aberrometer (Wavefront Sciences), and subjective — with a Badal hand optometer (Rodenstock). The influences of age and diabetes duration (in years) on amplitude of accommodation were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results Across both groups, objective amplitude was less than subjective amplitude by 1.4 ± 1.2 D. People with diabetes had lower objective (2.7 ± 1.6 D) and subjective (4.0 ± 1.7 D) amplitudes than people without diabetes (objective 4.1 ± 2.1 D, subjective 5.6 ± 2.1 D). For objective amplitude and the whole group, the duration of diabetes contributed 57% of the variation as did age. For the objective amplitude and only the diabetes group this was 78%. For subjective amplitude, the corresponding proportions were 68% and 103%. Conclusions Both objective and subjective techniques showed lowered amplitude of accommodation in participants with type 1 diabetes when compared with age-matched controls. The loss correlated strongly with duration of diabetes. The results suggest that individuals with diabetes will experience presbyopia earlier in life than people without diabetes, possibly due to metabolic changes in the lens.

Effect of diabetes on amplitude of accommodation

Purpose: To determine the effect of Type 1 diabetes (DM1) on amplitude of accommodation. Method: There were 43 participants (33 ± 8 years) with DM1 and 32 (34 ± 8 years) age-balanced controls. Amplitude was measured objectively with a COAS wavefront aberrometer and subjectively with a Badal hand optometer. Results: Across both groups, objective amplitude was less than subjective amplitude by 1.4 ± 1.2 D. People with diabetes had lower objective (2.7±1.6 D) and subjective (4.0±1.7 D) amplitudes than people without diabetes (objective 4.1±2.1 D, subjective 5.6±2.1 D). For the DM1 group, the objective and subjective multivariate linear regressions were 7.1 – 0.097Age – 0.076DiabDur (R2 0.51) and 9.1 –0.103Age – 0.106DiabDur (R2 0.63), respectively. Conclusion: Objective and subjective techniques showed lowered amplitude of accommodation in DM1 participants compared with age-matched controls. Loss was affected strongly by duration of diabetes. People with diabetes will experience presbyopia earlier in life than people without diabetes.

Influences of luminance and accommodation stimuli on pupil size and pupil center location

PURPOSE. To investigate effects of luminance and accommodation stimuli on pupil size and pupil center location and their implications for progressive addition lens wear. METHODS. Participants were young and older adult groups (n=20, 22±2 years, age range 18-25 years; n=19, 49±4 years, 45-58 years). A wave aberrometer included a relay system to allow a 12.5°x11° background for the internal fixation target. Participants viewed the target under a matrix of conditions with luminance levels 0.01, 3.7, 120 and 6100 cd/m² and with accommodation stimuli up to 6 diopters in 2 diopter steps. Pupil sizes and their centers, relative to limbus centers, were determined from anterior eye images. RESULTS. With luminance increase, reduction in pupil size was accentuated by increase in accommodation stimulus in the young, but not in the older, group. As luminance increased, pupil center location altered. This was nasally in both groups with an average shift of approximately 0.12mm. Relative to the lowest stimulus condition, the mean of the maximum absolute pupil center shifts was 0.26±0.08mm for both groups with individual shifts up to 0.5mm, findings consistent with previous studies. There was no significant effect of accommodation on pupil center locations for either age group, or evidence that location was influenced by the combination of luminance and accommodation stimulus that resulted in any particular pupil size. CONCLUSIONS. Variations in luminance and accommodation influence pupil size, but only the former affects pupil center location significantly. Pupil center shifts are too small to be of concern in fitting progressive addition lenses.

Much ado about nothing? The surprising persistence of nascent entrepreneurs through macroeconomic crisis

We hypothesize that a major macroeconomic crisis triggers four alternative responses among nascent entrepreneurs: disengagement, delay, compensation, and adaptation. We also suggest that commitment and ambition (or “high potential”) moderate these responses. Our most important finding is the relative absence of behavioral crisis responses. However, crises may make high-tech founders become more likely to disengage, whereas the opposite holds for founders far into the process. Our study sheds light on the mechanisms behind aggregate effects of crises on the number and type of start-ups in an economy, and can guide future research on the effect of crises on nascent entrepreneurship.

Ocular changes associated with accommodation in myopes and emmetropes

This thesis examines the short-term changes occurring in a number of the eye's structures during reading tasks, and explores how these changes differ between normal eyes, and those with short-sightedness (myopia). This research revealed changes in the shape and thickness of a number of the eye's structures during near work, and aspects of these changes showed differences associated with myopia. These findings have potentially important implications for our understanding of the role of near work in the development and progression of myopia.

Enterprise-related crisis communication on Twitter

The rise of social media as communication channels has enabled customers to provide feedback or to ask for assistance quickly and easily. In the context of brand crises, the microblogging platform Twitter is highly relevant because of its ability to support information sharing. By investigating communication on Twitter, the authors examine Twitter activity patterns based on a dataset of some 240,000 tweets during two major brand crises affecting the Australian airline Qantas – the volcanic ash cloud caused by the eruption of Chilean volcano Puyehue in June 2011, and the global grounding of Qantas flights by management in the course of an industrial dispute in October/November 2011. Through this case study we find that characteristics of communication change significantly during different stages of the crisis. Further, we demonstrate that different kinds of crisis result in different communication patterns on Twitter.

The short-term accommodation response to aniso-accommodative stimuli in isometropia

Purpose There have been only a limited number of studies examining the accommodative response that occurs when the two eyes are provided with disparate accommodative stimuli, and the results from these studies to date have been equivocal. In this study, we therefore aimed to examine the capacity of the visual system to aniso-accommodate by objectively measuring the interocular difference in the accommodation response between fellow dominant and non-dominant eyes under controlled monocular and binocular viewing conditions during short-term exposure to aniso-accommodative stimuli. Methods The accommodative response of each eye of sixteen young isometropic adults (mean age 22 ± 2 years) with normal binocular vision was measured using an open-field autorefractor during a range of testing conditions; monocularly (accommodative demands ranging from 1.32 to 4.55 D) and binocularly while altering the accommodation demand for each eye (aniso-accommodative stimuli ranging from 0.24 to 2.05 D). Results Under monocular viewing conditions, the dominant and non-dominant eyes displayed a highly symmetric accommodative response; mean interocular difference in spherical equivalent 0.01 ± 0.06 D (relative) and 0.22 ± 0.06 D (absolute) (p>0.05). During binocular viewing, the dominant eye displayed a greater accommodative response (0.11 ± 0.34 D relative and 0.24 ± 0.26 D absolute) irrespective of whether the demand of the dominant or non-dominant eye was altered (p = 0.01). Astigmatic power vectors J0 and J45 did not vary between eyes or with increasing accommodation demands under monocular or binocular viewing conditions (p>0.05). Conclusion The dominant and non-dominant eyes of young isometropic individuals display a similar consensual lag of accommodation under both monocular and binocular viewing conditions, with the dominant eye showing a small but significantly greater (by 0.12 to 0.25 D) accommodative response. Evidence of short-term aniso-accommodation in response to asymmetric accommodation demands was not observed.

Tesla motors’ open source revolution: Intellectual property and the carbon crisis

On the 12th June 2014, Elon Musk, the chief executive officer of the electric car manufacturer, Tesla Motors, announced in a blog that ‘all our patents belong to you.’ He explained that the company would adopt an open source philosophy in respect of its intellectual property in order to encourage the development of the industry of electric cars, and address the carbon crisis. Elon Musk made the dramatic, landmark announcement: Yesterday, there was a wall of Tesla patents in the lobby of our Palo Alto headquarters. That is no longer the case. They have been removed, in the spirit of the open source movement, for the advancement of electric vehicle technology.

Intellectual property and biofuels: The energy crisis, food security, and climate change

In light of larger public policy debates over intellectual property and climate change, this article considers patent practice, law, and policy in respect of biofuels. This debate has significant implications for public policy discussions in respect of energy independence, food security, and climate change. The first section of the paper provides a network analysis of patents in respect of biofuels across the three generations. It provides empirical research in respect of patent subject matter, ownership, and strategy in respect of biofuels. The second section provides a case study of significant patent litigation over biofuels. There is an examination of the biofuels patent litigation between the Danish company Novozymes, and Danisco and DuPont. The third section examines flexibilities in respect of patent law and clean technologies in the context of the case study of biofuels. In particular, it explores the debate over substantive doctrinal matters in respect of biofuels – such as patentable subject matter, technology transfer, patent pools, compulsory licensing, and disclosure requirements. The conclusion explores the relevance of the debate over patent law and biofuels to the larger public policy discussions over energy independence, food security, and climate change.

ACE Research Vignette 042: Nascent ventures’ surprising resistance to macroeconomic crisis

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international entrepreneurship researchers. This vignette, written by Professor Per Davidsson, reports findings on how the onset of the Global Financial Crisis affected “nascent ventures”, i.e., on-going business start-up efforts.