Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Fast Object Recognition in Noisy Images Using Simulated Annealing

A fast simulated annealing algorithm is developed for automatic object recognition. The normalized correlation coefficient is used as a measure of the match between a hypothesized object and an image. Templates are generated on-line during the search by transforming model images. Simulated annealing reduces the search time by orders of magnitude with respect to an exhaustive search. The algorithm is applied to the problem of how landmarks, for example, traffic signs, can be recognized by an autonomous vehicle or a navigating robot. The algorithm works well in noisy, real-world images of complicated scenes for model images with high information content.

Impuestos locales a las transferencias de dominio de bienes inmuebles (Tema Central)

Este artículo versa sobre los impuestos municipales y metropolitanos a la transferencia de dominio de bienes inmuebles en el contexto ecuatoriano como parte de la tributación local, y examina con un enfoque teórico los elementos cardinales de esta específica imposición, así como de aspectos formales y de gestión, a remolque del marco normativo vigente. En esta línea se exponen algunas inconsistencias del régimen jurídico de la materia con el correlativo planteamiento de varios supuestos que podrían considerarse para la depuración del régimen en cuestión.

An old problem revisited - and solved: Upton and Dalton's linear production response: A note

This note presents a robust method for estimating response surfaces that consist of linear response regimes and a linear plateau. The linear response-and-plateau model has fascinated production scientists since von Liebig (1855) and, as Upton and Dalton indicated, some years ago in this Journal, the response-and-plateau model seems to fit the data in many empirical studies. The estimation algorithm evolves from Bayesian implementation of a switching-regression (finite mixtures) model and demonstrates routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation-techniques that are now in widespread application in other disciplines.

Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Energy-efficient hybrid system for Wireless Body Area Network Applications

Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) consist of a number of miniaturized wearable or implanted sensor nodes that are employed to monitor vital parameters of a patient over long duration of time. These sensors capture physiological data and wirelessly transfer the collected data to a local base station in order to be further processed. Almost all of these body sensors are expected to have low data-rate and to run on a battery. Since recharging or replacing the battery is not a simple task specifically in the case of implanted devices such as pacemakers, extending the lifetime of sensor nodes in WBANs is one of the greatest challenges. To achieve this goal, WBAN systems employ low-power communication transceivers and low duty cycle Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols. Although, currently used MAC protocols are able to reduce the energy consumption of devices for transmission and reception, yet they are still unable to offer an ultimate energy self-sustaining solution for low-power MAC protocols. This paper proposes to utilize energy harvesting technologies in low-power MAC protocols. This novel approach can further reduce energy consumption of devices in WBAN systems.

The distributional and nutritional impacts and mitigation potential of emission-based food taxes in the UK

Agriculture and food production are responsible for a substantial proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. An emission based food tax has been proposed as one option to reduce food related emissions. This study introduces a method to measure the impacts of emission based food taxes at a household level which involves the use of data augmentation to account for the fact that the data record purchases and not consumption. The method is applied to determine the distributional and nutritional impacts of an emission based food tax across socio-economic classes in the UK. We find that a tax of £2.841/tCO2e on all foods would reduce food related emissions by 6.3% and a tax on foods with above average levels of emissions would reduce emissions by 4.3%. The tax burden falls disproportionately on households in the lowest socio-economic class because they tend to spend a larger proportion of their food expenditure on emission intensive foods and because they buy cheaper products and therefore experience relatively larger price increases.

Color Segmentation using LVQ-Learning Vector Quantization

This thesis aims to present a color segmentation approach for traffic sign recognition based on LVQ neural networks. The RGB images were converted into HSV color space, and segmented using LVQ depending on the hue and saturation values of each pixel in the HSV color space. LVQ neural network was used to segment red, blue and yellow colors on the road and traffic signs to detect and recognize them. LVQ was effectively applied to 536 sampled images taken from different countries in different conditions with 89% accuracy and the execution time of each image among 31 images was calculated in between 0.726sec to 0.844sec. The method was tested in different environmental conditions and LVQ showed its capacity to reasonably segment color despite remarkable illumination differences. The results showed high robustness.

Acidentes de trânsito fatais e sua associação com indicadores sociais e adolescência

Introdução - Os acidentes de trânsito são um grave problema de saúde pública universal, em países desenvolvidos e subdesenvolvidos, estando entre as primeiras causas de morte em quase todos os países do mundo (DEL CIAMPO & RICCO, 1996). No Brasil, assu-mem grande relevância, especialmente pela alta morbidade e mortalidade, predominância em populações jovens e/ou economicamente ativas, maior perda de anos de vida produtiva e ele-vado custo direto e indireto para a sociedade. Objetivo - Os objetivos deste trabalho foram descrever a magnitude da mortali-dade por acidentes de trânsito, avaliar sua correlação com indicadores sociais e proporção de jovens na população e testar a sua associação com adolescência, sexo masculino e consumo de álcool. Material e Métodos - Foi realizado, inicialmente, um estudo ecológico envolven-do todas as capitais das unidades da federação e Distrito Federal (exceto o município do Rio de Janeiro), com coleta de dados sobre acidentes de trânsito com vítimas no Departamento Nacional de Trânsito. Foram descritos os índices de acidentes de trânsito com vítimas p/ 1.000 veículos (IAT-V) e de feridos p/ 1.000 veículos (IF-V) referentes aos anos de 1995, 1997 e 1998 e o índice de mortos p/ 10.000 veículos (IM-V) referente ao período de 1995 a 1998. Em seguida, avaliou-se a existência de correlação entre o IM-V e taxa de mortalidade infantil (TMI), índice municipal de desenvolvimento humano (IDH-M), índice de condições de vida (ICV), proporção de condutores adolescentes envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito com vítimas (PCJ-ATV) e proporção de residentes jovens (PRJ) nas diferentes capitais. Em um segundo momento, realizou-se um estudo de caso controle, onde foram estudados 863 condu-tores envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito com vítimas atendidos no Departamento Médico Legal de Porto Alegre, no período de 1998 a 1999. Os condutores foram divididos em dois grupos: condutores envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito com vítima fatal (casos) e com vítima não fatal (controles). Os grupos foram comparados com relação a adolescência, sexo mascu-lino e consumo de álcool, através da razão de chances e seu intervalo de confiança, com signi-ficância determinada pelo teste de qui-quadrado. Resultados - No estudo ecológico, observou-se, no Brasil, uma tendência decres-cente quanto aos indicadores de eventos relacionados ao trânsito no período de 1995 a 1998. Nas capitais das unidades da federação e Distrito Federal, apesar da ampla variação apresenta-da, a maioria manteve a mesma tendência decrescente observada para o país como um todo. Na análise das correlações entre o IM-V e os indicadores sociais, observou-se forte correlação positiva com a TMI (r = 0,57; P = 0,002), ou seja, quanto maior a TMI, maior a mortalidade no trânsito, além de correlação negativa com o IDH-M (r = - 0,41; P = 0,038) e com o ICV (r = - 0,58; P = 0,02). Quando se avaliaram o IDH-M e o ICV separados em suas dimensões, a dimensão renda de ambos indicadores foi a única que não demonstrou correlação com o IM- -V. As demais dimensões do IDH-M e ICV demonstraram correlação negativa, sendo que a dimensão infância (r = - 0,62; P = 0,001) apresentou a maior correlação. A análise da asso-ciação entre o IM-V e a PCJ-ATV não demonstrou correlação, mas, quando avaliada a asso-ciação com a PRJ nas capitais, houve forte correlação positiva (r = 0,59; P = 0,002). No estudo de caso controle, quando avaliada a relação entre condutores envolvidos em acidentes com vítima fatal e adolescência, sexo masculino e consumo de álcool, não foi observada asso-ciação importante em nenhum dos fatores em estudo. Conclusões - Apesar de os indicadores de eventos relacionados ao trânsito (IAT- -V, IF-V e IM-V) terem apresentado uma tendência decrescente durante o período de estudo, acidentes de trânsito continuam sendo um grave problema de saúde pública. O estudo ecológico evidenciou a existência de relação entre o IM-V e os indicadores sociais (TMI, IDH-M e ICV), sendo que a dimensão renda não demonstrou correlação e a dimensão infância apresen-tou a correlação negativa de maior valor. Quanto à PCJ-ATV, não foi encontrada associação relevante entre este indicador e o IM-V. Entretanto, observou-se forte associação entre a PRJ e o IM-V. O estudo de caso controle não evidenciou associação entre adolescência e os de-mais fatores estudados e maior risco para acidente de trânsito fatal.

Repeatability and heritability of response to superovulation in Holstein cows

The objective of this study was to estimate the relative effects of genetic and phenotypic factors on the efficacy and efficiency of superovulation for Holstein-Friesian cows reared in Brazil. A database, established by the Associacao Brasileira de Criadores de Bovinos da Raca Holandesa, consisting of a total of 5387 superovulations of 2941 cows distributed over 473 herds and sired by 690 bulls was used for the analysis. The records were analyzed by MTDFREML (Multiple Trait Derivative-Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood), using a repeatability animal model. The fixed effects included in the model were contemporaneous group (veterinarian, herd, year and season of the superovulation); number of semen doses; cow age; and superovulation order. The estimated repeatability of the number of the transferable embryos was low (0.13), and the estimated heritability was 0.03. These results indicate that environmental factors play a critical role in the response of a cow to a superovulation treatment. There is little evidence that future responses to superovulation by individual females can be predicted by previous treatment(s) or that superovulation response is an heritable trait.

Robust linear mixed models with normal/independent distributions and Bayesian MCMC implementation

Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

Local data fusion algorithm for fire detection through mobile robot

Multisensor data fusion is a technique that combines the readings of multiple sensors to detect some phenomenon. Data fusion applications are numerous and they can be used in smart buildings, environment monitoring, industry and defense applications. The main goal of multisensor data fusion is to minimize false alarms and maximize the probability of detection based on the detection of multiple sensors. In this paper a local data fusion algorithm based on luminosity, temperature and flame for fire detection is presented. The data fusion approach was embedded in a low cost mobile robot. The prototype test validation has indicated that our approach can detect fire occurrence. Moreover, the low cost project allow the development of robots that could be discarded in their fire detection missions. © 2013 IEEE.

A mobilidade urbana em questão: um olhar sobre a cidade de Viçosa - MG

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of whitening gel on pulp chamber temperature rise by in-office bleaching technique

INTRODUÇÃO: O clareamento dental representa uma manobra conservadora na recuperação estética de dentes com alterações cromáticas. Contudo, os tratamentos clareadores são passíveis de causar efeitos adversos, quando não bem planejados e executados. OBJETIVO: Este estudo avaliou a influência do gel clareador no aumento da temperatura intra-câmara pulpar através da técnica de clareamento dental fotoativado realizado em consultório. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: Um incisivo central superior humano foi seccionado na porção radicular 3 mm abaixo da junção cemento-esmalte. O canal radicular foi alargado para permitir a introdução do sensor do termômetro na câmara pulpar, a qual foi preenchida com pasta térmica, favorecendo a transferência de calor das paredes dentárias para o sensor do termômetro digital com termopar tipo K (MT- 401A) durante o clareamento. Três agentes clareadores fotossensíveis (peróxido de hidrogênio a 35%) foram utilizados, sendo: Whiteness HP (FGM), Whiteness HP Maxx (FGM) e Lase Peroxide Sensy (DMC). Um aparelho fotopolimerizador de led (Flash Lite - Discus Dental) foi empregado para a ativação dos géis clareadores. Seis ciclos de clareamento foram realizados para cada grupo testado. Os resultados foram submetidos à ANOVA de um critério e ao teste t (LSD) (α<0,05). RESULTADO: A menor média de variação de temperatura (ºC) foi observada com o Lase Peroxide Sensy (0,20), enquanto que a maior com o Whiteness HP (1,50). CONCLUSÃO: Os géis clareadores Whiteness HP e Whiteness HP Maxx interferiram significativamente no aumento da temperatura intra-câmara pulpar durante o clareamento, sendo esta variação dependente do tipo de gel clareador empregado.

O plano de ações articuladas e a gestão educacional do município de Altamira-Pará

ABSTRACT: This researpch discusses the role of Articulated Action Plan (AAP) in education management and present as object of study the implications of AAP in the management of Altamira-PA education, with respect to the democratic management. The investigation seems to clarify se with the implementation of the AAP there was progress in the democratization of education management in Altamira-PA. We pointed as well as general objective: analyze the implications of AAP for educational management Altamira from 2007 to 2012. The research investigation bases made themselves with the literature of contribution on the issues of the state and education politic, the democratic management of education and Articulated Action Plan, as well as official documents available in SEMED and other sources. Having as part of a research management, considered in the analysis of the educational context dimension 1 (one) of the AAP. So in addition to statistical data on municipal education, we analyzed financial data for the transfer of federal funds, and qualitative data on the participation of research subjects (education secretaries, counselors, teachers and teaching coordination). The investigation revealed that it is still fragile the field of democratization of education in Altamira. Of the analyzed aspects contained in the AAP, including the functioning of the councils (School Boards, City Board of Education, CACS-Fundeb and CAE), providing of the position of directors and the construction of the Municipal Education Plan (MEP) show progress and setbacks regarding the democratic management: existence of all the advice of social control and monitoring; reactivation of CME but this still can not coordinate discussions on the educational politic of the municipality; little participation in the School Boards; creation of Law No. 3,085/2012 establishing the Municipal school system, but still no installation; transfers under the AAP of federal funds for schools; lack of MEP and privilege of the IAS Target Plan. Finally, it is concluded that even if the resistance fronts for the construction and consolidation of democratic management of education and there are historical in Altamira, the construction of educational politic with the participation of all is frustrated by the centrality of the decision-making power in the Government’s hands.