Private equity and the flight of the phoenix four - the collapse of MG Rover in the UK

This paper explores the nature of the co-called ‘private equity business model’ (PEBM) and assesses its shortcomings, using the illustrative example of the role of private equity in structuring the finance and subsequent collapse of MG Rover, as the automotive industry has been a significant destination for private equity financing. The paper outlines the nature of the PEBM. It then details how the PEBM extracts value, before stressing how this can affect workers in a portfolio business. We argue that the emergence of the PEBM changes the basis of competitive rules in organizations and the running of erstwhile going concerns, necessitating a need for further regulation—particularly, how to secure wider stakeholder oversight without reducing the efficiency of PEBM concerns.

The pH-induced swelling and collapse of a polybase brush synthesized by atom transfer radical polymerization

We have used neutron reflectometry to characterize the swelling behaviour of brushes of poly[2-(diethyl amino)ethyl methacrylate], a polybase, as a function of pH. The brushes, synthesized by the "grafting from" method of atom transfer radical polymerization, were observed to approximately double their thickness in low pH solutions, although the pK is shifted to a lower pH than in dilute solution. The composition-depth profile obtained from the reflectometry experiments for the swollen brushes reveals a region depleted in polymer between the substrate and the extended part of the brush.

Soviet and Western bloc competition in the less developed world and the collapse of Détente

The purpose of my dissertation was to examine the competition between the U.S.-led Western bloc and the Soviet bloc in the less developed world during Détente. I assessed whether or not the Soviet bloc pushed for strategic gains in the less developed world in the middle-to-late 1970's and whether this contributed to the U.S. decision to abandon Détente in 1979. I made the attempt to test the international relations theory of balance of threat realism (Walt, 1992). I accomplished the test in two ways. First, I measured the foreign aid allocations (military and economic) made by each respective bloc towards the Third World by using a quantitative approach. Second, I examined U.S. archives using the process-tracing/historical method. The U.S. archives gave me the ability to evaluate how U.S. decision-makers and U.S. intelligence agencies interpreted the actions of the Soviet bloc. They also gave me the chance to examine the U.S. response as we evaluated the policies that were pushed by key U.S. decision-makers and intelligence agencies. On the question of whether or not the Soviet bloc was aggressive, the quantitative evidence suggested that it was not. Instead, the evidence found the Western-bloc to have been more aggressive in the less developed world. The U.S. archives also showed Soviet actions to have been defensive. Key U.S. decision-makers and intelligence agencies attested to this. Finally, the archives show that U.S. officials pushed for aggressive actions against the Third World during the final years of Détente. Thus, balance of threat realism produced an incorrect assessment that U.S. aggression in the late 1970's was a response to Soviet aggression during Détente. The evidence suggests structural Marxism and domestic politics can better explain U.S./Western actions. The aggressive foreign aid allocations of the West, coupled with evidence of U.S. decision-makers/agencies vehemently concerned about the long-term prospects of the West, strengthened structural Marxism. Domestic politics can also claim to explain the actions of U.S. decision-makers. I found extensive archival evidence of bureaucratic inter-agency conflict between the State Department and other intelligence agencies in areas of strategic concern to the U.S.

Cassius Dio's speeches and the collapse of the Roman Republic

This thesis argues that Cassius Dio used his speeches of his Late Republican and Augustan narratives as a means of historical explanation. I suggest that the interpretative framework which the historian applied to the causes and success of constitutional change can be most clearly identified in the speeches. The discussion is divided into eight chapters over two sections. Chapter 1 (Introduction) sets out the historical, paideutic, and compositional issues which have traditionally served as a basis for rejecting the explanatory and interpretative value of the speeches in Dio’s work and for criticising his Roman History more generally. Section 1 consists of three methodological chapters which respond to these issues. In Chapter 2 (Speeches and Sources) I argue that Dio’s prosopopoeiai approximate more closely with the political oratory of that period than has traditionally been recognised. Chapter 3 (Dio and the Sophistic) argues that Cassius Dio viewed the artifice of rhetoric as a particular danger in his own time. I demonstrate that this preoccupation informed, credibly, his presentation of political oratory in the Late Republic and of its destructive consequences. Chapter 4 (Dio and the Progymnasmata) argues that although the texts of the progymnasmata in which Dio will have been educated clearly encouraged invention with a strongly moralising focus, it is precisely his reliance on these aspects of rhetorical education which would have rendered his interpretations persuasive to a contemporary audience. Section 2 is formed of three case-studies. In Chapter 5 (The Defence of the Republic) I explore how Dio placed speeches-in-character at three Republican constitutional crises to set out an imagined case for the preservation of that system. This case, I argue, is deliberately unconvincing: the historian uses these to elaborate the problems of the distribution of power and the noxious influence of φθόνος and φιλοτιμία. Chapter 6 (The Enemies of the Republic) examines the explanatory role of Dio’s speeches from the opposite perspective. It investigates Dio’s placement of dishonest speech into the mouths of military figures to make his own distinctive argument about the role of imperialism in the fragmentation of the res publica. Chapter 7 (Speech after the Settlement) argues that Cassius Dio used his three speeches of the Augustan age to demonstrate how a distinctive combination of Augustan virtues directly counteracted the negative aspects of Republican political and rhetorical culture which the previous two case-studies had explored. Indeed, in Dio’s account of Augustus the failures of the res publica are reinvented as positive forces which work in concert with Augustan ἀρετή to secure beneficial constitutional change.

Influence of LPG composition on straw applied one componente PU winter foam

O principal objectivo desta tese é obter uma relação directa entre a composição dos gases liquefeitos de petróleo (GLP), propano, n-butano e isobutano, usados como aerossóis propulsores numa lata de poliuretano de um componente, com as propriedades das espumas produzidas por spray. As espumas obtidas, terão de ter como requisito principal, um bom desempenho a temperaturas baixas, -10ºC, sendo por isso designadas por espumas de Inverno. Uma espuma é considerada como tendo um bom desempenho se não apresentar a -10/-10ºC (temperatura lata/ spray) glass bubbles, base holes e cell collapse. As espumas deverão ainda ter densidades do spray no molde a +23/+23ºC abaixo dos 30 g/L, um rendimento superior a 30 L, boa estabilidade dimensional e um caudal de espuma a +5/+5ºC superior a 5 g/s. Os ensaios experimentais foram realizados a +23/+23ºC, +5/+5ºC e a -10/-10ºC. A cada temperatura, as espumas desenvolvidas, foram submetidas a testes que permitiram determinar a sua qualidade. Testes esses que incluem os designados por Quick Tests (QT): o spray no papel e no molde das espumas nas referidas temperaturas. As amostras do papel e no molde são especialmente analisadas, quanto, às glass bubbles, cell collapse, base holes, cell structur e, cutting shrinkage, para além de outras propriedades. Os QT também incluem a análise da densidade no molde (ODM) e o estudo do caudal de espumas. Além dos QT foram realizados os testes da estabilidade dimensional das espumas, testes físicos de compressão e adesão, testes de expansão das espumas após spray e do rendimento por lata de espuma. Em todos os ensaios foi utilizado um tubo adaptador colocado na válvula da lata como método de spray e ainda mantida constante a proporção das matérias-primas (excepto os gases, em estudo). As experiências iniciaram-se com o estudo de GLPs presentes no mercado de aerossóis. Estes resultaram que o GLP: propano/ n-butano/ isobutano: (30/ 0/ 70 w/w%), produz as melhores espumas de inverno a -10/-10ºC, reduzindo desta forma as glass bubbles, base holes e o cell collapse produzido pelos restantes GLP usados como aerossóis nas latas de poliuretano. Testes posteriores tiveram como objectivo estudar a influência directa de cada gás, propano, n-butano e isobutano nas espumas. Para tal, foram usadas duas referências do estudo com GLP comercializáveis, 7396 (30 /0 /70 w/w %) e 7442 (0/ 0/ 100 w/w %). Com estes resultados concluí-se que o n-butano produz más propriedades nas espumas a -10/- 10ºC, formando grandes quantidades de glass bubbles, base holes e cell collapse. Contudo, o uso de propano reduz essas glass bubbles, mas em contrapartida, forma cell collapse.Isobutano, porém diminui o cell collapse mas não as glass bubbles. Dos resultados experimentais podemos constatar que o caudal a +5/+5ºC e densidade das espumas a +23/+23ºC, são influenciados pela composição do GLP. O propano e n-butano aumentam o caudal de espuma das latas e a sua densidade, ao contrário com o que acontece com o isobutano. Todavia, pelos resultados obtidos, o isobutano proporciona os melhores rendimentos de espumas por lata. Podemos concluir que os GLPs que contivessem cerca de 30 w/w % de propano (bons caudais a +5/+5ºC e menos glass bubbles a -10/-10ºC), e cerca 70 w/w % de isobutano (bons rendimentos de espumas, bem como menos cell collapse a -10/-10ºC) produziam as melhores espumas. Também foram desenvolvidos testes sobre a influência da quantidade de gás GLP presente numa lata. A análise do volume de GLP usado, foi realizada com base na melhor espuma obtida nos estudos anteriores, 7396, com um GLP (30 / 0/ 70 w/w%), e foram feitas alterações ao seu volume gás GLP presente no pré-polímero. O estudo concluiu, que o aumento do volume pode diminuir a densidade das espumas, e o seu decréscimo, um aumento da densidade. Também indico u que um mau ajuste do volume poderá causar más propriedades nas espumas. A análise económica, concluiu que o custo das espumas com mais GLP nas suas formulações, reduz-se em cerca de 3%, a quando de um aumento do volume de GLP no pré-polímero de cerca de 8 %. Esta diminuição de custos deveu-se ao facto, de um aumento de volume de gás, implicar uma diminuição na quantidade das restantes matérias-primas, com custos superiores, já que o volume útil total da lata terá de ser sempre mantido nos 750 mL. Com o objectivo de melhorar a qualidade da espuma 7396 (30/0/70 w/w %) obtida nos ensaios anteriores adicionou-se à formulação 7396 o HFC-152a (1,1-di fluoroetano). Os resultados demonstram que se formam espumas com más propriedades, especialmente a -10/-10ºC, contudo proporcionou excelentes shaking rate da lata. Através de uma pequena análise de custos não é aconselhável o seu uso pelos resultados obtidos, não proporcionando um balanço custo/benefício favorável. As três melhores espumas obtidas de todos os estudos foram comparadas com uma espuma de inverno presente no mercado. 7396 e 7638 com um volume de 27 % no prépolímero e uma composição de GLP (30/ 0 / 70 w/w%) e (13,7/ 0/ 86,3 w/w%), respectivamente, e 7690, com 37 % de volume no pré-polímero e GLP (30/ 0 / 70 w/w%), apresentaram em geral melhores resultados, comparando com a espuma benchmark . Contudo, os seus shaking rate a -10/-10ºC, de cada espuma, apresentaram valores bastante inferiores à composição benchmarking.

Caval collapse during cardiopulmonary bypass: a reproducible bench model.

OBJECTIVES: During open heart surgery, so-called atrial chatter, a phenomenon due to right atria and/or caval collapse, is frequently observed. Collapse of the cava axis during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) limits venous drainage and may result downstream in reduced pump flow on (lack of volume) and upstream in increased after-load (stagnation), which in turn may both result in reduced or even inadequate end-organ perfusion. The goal of this study was to reproduce venous collapse in the flow bench. METHODS: In accordance with literature for venous anatomy, a caval tree system is designed (polyethylene, thickness 0.061 mm), which receives venous inflow from nine afferent veins. With water as medium and a preload of 4.4 mmHg, the system has an outflow of 4500 ml/min (Scenario A). After the insertion of a percutaneous venous cannula (23-Fr), the venous model is continuously served by the afferent branches in a venous test bench and venous drainage is augmented with a centrifugal pump (Scenario B). RESULTS: With gravity drainage (siphon: A), spontaneously reversible atrial chatter can be generated in reproducible fashion. Slight reduction in the outflow diameter allows for generation of continuous flow. With augmentation (B), irreversible collapse of the artificial vena cava occurs in reproducible fashion at a given pump speed of 2300 ± 50 RPM and a pump inlet pressure of -112 mmHg. Furthermore, bubbles form at the cannula tip despite the fact that the entire system is immersed in water and air from the environment cannot enter the system. This phenomenon is also known as cavitation and should be avoided because of local damage of both formed blood elements and endothelium, as well embolization. CONCLUSIONS: This caval model provides a realistic picture for the limitations of flow due to spontaneously reversible atrial chatter vs irreversible venous collapse for a given negative pressure during CPB. Temporary interruption of negative pressure in the venous line can allow for recovery of venous drainage. This know-how can be used not only for testing different cannula designs, but also for further optimizing perfusion strategies.

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

A study of behavioral finance: background, theories and application

Behavioral finance, or behavioral economics, consists of a theoretical field of research stating that consequent psychological and behavioral variables are involved in financial activities such as corporate finance and investment decisions (i.e. asset allocation, portfolio management and so on). This field has known an increasing interest from scholar and financial professionals since episodes of multiple speculative bubbles and financial crises. Indeed, practical incoherencies between economic events and traditional neoclassical financial theories had pushed more and more researchers to look for new and broader models and theories. The purpose of this work is to present the field of research, still ill-known by a vast majority. This work is thus a survey that introduces its origins and its main theories, while contrasting them with traditional finance theories still predominant nowadays. The main question guiding this work would be to see if this area of inquiry is able to provide better explanations for real life market phenomenon. For that purpose, the study will present some market anomalies unsolved by traditional theories, which have been recently addressed by behavioral finance researchers. In addition, it presents a practical application of portfolio management, comparing asset allocation under the traditional Markowitz’s approach to the Black-Litterman model, which incorporates some features of behavioral finance.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Collapse and Color Changes in Grapefruit Juice Powder as Affected by Water Activity, Glass Transition, and Addition of Carbohydrate Polymers

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Experimental Validation of Finite Element Analysis of Human Vertebral Collapse Under Large Compressive Strains

Osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures represent a major health problem in elderly populations. Such fractures can often only be diagnosed after a substantial deformation history of the vertebral body. Therefore, it remains a challenge for clinicians to distinguish between stable and progressive potentially harmful fractures. Accordingly, novel criteria for selection of the appropriate conservative or surgical treatment are urgently needed. Computer tomography-based finite element analysis is an increasingly accepted method to predict the quasi-static vertebral strength and to follow up this small strain property longitudinally in time. A recent development in constitutive modeling allows us to simulate strain localization and densification in trabecular bone under large compressive strains without mesh dependence. The aim of this work was to validate this recently developed constitutive model of trabecular bone for the prediction of strain localization and densification in the human vertebral body subjected to large compressive deformation. A custom-made stepwise loading device mounted in a high resolution peripheral computer tomography system was used to describe the progressive collapse of 13 human vertebrae under axial compression. Continuum finite element analyses of the 13 compression tests were realized and the zones of high volumetric strain were compared with the experiments. A fair qualitative correspondence of the strain localization zone between the experiment and finite element analysis was achieved in 9 out of 13 tests and significant correlations of the volumetric strains were obtained throughout the range of applied axial compression. Interestingly, the stepwise propagating localization zones in trabecular bone converged to the buckling locations in the cortical shell. While the adopted continuum finite element approach still suffers from several limitations, these encouraging preliminary results towardsthe prediction of extended vertebral collapse may help in assessing fracture stability in future work.

A test of the Bolton-Scheinkman-Xiong hypothesis of how speculation affects the vesting time of options granted to directors

This paper investigates empirically the Bolton, Scheinkman, and Xiong (2006) hypothesis, according to which initial shareholders may provide incentives to managers to take actions that stimulate speculative bubbles. We test this hypothesis with data on up to 8,544 directors and up to 1,677 companies between 2004-2008. Using vesting time as a measure of the short-term performance weighting in CEO compensation and various alternative measures of the extent of speculation, the findings support the hypothesis: vesting time decreases with more intensive speculation. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.