An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Glaciers and climate in northern Sweden during the 19th and 20th century

Our understanding of the climate of northern Sweden during the late Holocene is largely dependent on proxy-data series. These datasets remain spatially and temporally sparse and instrumental series are rare prior to the mid 19th century. Nevertheless, the glaciology and paleo-glaciology of the region has a strong potential significance for the exploration of climate change scenarios, past and future. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the 19th and 20th century climate in the northern Swedish mountain range. This provides a good opportunity to analyse the natural variability of the climate before the onset of the industrial epoch. Developing a temporal understanding of fluctuations in glacier front positions and glacier mass balance that is linked to a better understanding of their interaction and relative significance to climate is fundamental in the assessment of past climate. I have chosen to investigate previously unexplored temperature data from northern Sweden from between 1802 and 1860 and combined it with a temperature series from a synoptic station in Haparanda, which began operation in 1859, in order to create a reliable long temperature series for the period 1802 to 2002. I have also investigated two different glaciers, Pårteglaciären and Salajekna, which are located in different climatic environments. These glaciers have, from a Swedish perspective, long observational records. Furthermore, I have investigated a recurring jökulhlaup at the glacier Sälkaglaciären in order to analyse glacier-climate relationships with respect to the jökulhlaups. A number of datasets are presented, including: glacier frontal changes, in situ and photogrammetric mass balance data, in situ and satellite radar interferometry measurements of surface velocity, radar measurements, ice volume data and a temperature series. All these datasets are analysed in order to investigate the response of the glaciers to climatic stimuli, to attribute specific behaviour to particular climates and to analyse the 19th and 20th century glacier/climate relationships in northern Sweden. The 19th century was characterized by cold conditions in northern Sweden, particularly in winter. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual temperature cycle are evident. Through the 19th century there is a marked decreasing trend in the amplitude of the data, suggesting a change towards a prevalence of maritime (westerly) air masses, something which has characterised the 20th century. The investigations on Salajekna support the conclusion that the major part of the 19th century was cold and dry. The 19th century advance of Salajekna was probably caused by colder climate in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, coupled with a weakening of the westerly airflow. The investigations on Pårteglaciären show that the glacier has a response time of ~200 years. It also suggests that there was a relatively high frequency of easterly winds providing the glacier with winter precipitation during the 19th century. Glaciers have very different response times and are sensitive to different climatic parameters. Glaciers in rather continental areas of the Subarctic and Arctic can have very long response times because of mass balance considerations and not primarily the glacier dynamics. This is of vital importance for analyzing Arctic and Subarctic glacier behaviour in a global change perspective. It is far from evident that the behaviour of the glacier fronts today reflects the present climate.

High-resolution stratigraphy of Central and Southern Adriatic Quaternary deposits of sub-Milankovian climate change on Mediterranean circulation

This volume is a collection of the work done in a three years-lasting PhD, focused in the analysis of Central and Southern Adriatic marine sediments, deriving from the collection of a borehole and many cores, achieved thanks to the good seismic-stratigraphic knowledge of the study area. The work was made out within European projects EC-EURODELTA (coordinated by Fabio Trincardi, ISMAR-CNR), EC-EUROSTRATAFORM (coordinated by Phil P. E. Weaver, NOC, UK), and PROMESS1 (coordinated by Serge Bernè, IFREMER, France). The analysed sedimentary successions presented highly expanded stratigraphic intervals, particularly for the last 400 kyr, 60 kyr and 6 kyr BP. These three different time-intervals resulted in a tri-partition of the PhD thesis. The study consisted of the analysis of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ assemblages (more than 560 samples analysed), as well as in preparing the material for oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses, and interpreting and discussing the obtained dataset. The chronologic framework of the last 400 kyr was achieved for borehole PRAD1-2 (within the work-package WP6 of PROMESS1 project), collected in 186.5 m water depth. The proposed chronology derives from a multi-disciplinary approach, consisting of the integration of numerous and independent proxies, some of which analysed by other specialists within the project. The final framework based on: micropaleontology (calcareous nannofossils and foraminifers’ bioevents), climatic cyclicity (foraminifers’ assemblages), geochemistry (oxygen stable isotope, made out on planktic and benthic records), paleomagnetism, radiometric ages (14C AMS), teprhochronology, identification of sapropel-equivalent levels (Se). It’s worth to note the good consistency between the oxygen stable isotope curve obtained for borehole PRAD1-2 and other deeper Mediterranean records. The studied proxies allowed the recognition of all the isotopic intervals from MIS10 to MIS1 in PRAD1-2 record, and the base of the borehole has been ascribed to the early MIS11. Glacial and interglacial intervals identified in the Central Adriatic record have been analysed in detail for the paleo-environmental reconstruction, as well. For instance, glacial stages MIS6, MIS8 and MIS10 present peculiar foraminifers’ assemblages, composed by benthic species typical of polar regions and no longer living in the Central Adriatic nowadays. Moreover, a deepening trend in the paleo-bathymetry during glacial intervals was observed, from MIS10 (inner-shelf environment) to MIS4 (mid-shelf environment).Ten sapropel-equivalent levels have been recognised in PRAD1-2 Central Adriatic record. They showed different planktic foraminifers’ assemblages, which allowed the first distinction of events occurred during warm-climate (Se5, Se7), cold-climate (Se4, Se6 and Se8) and temperate-intermediate-climate (Se1, Se3, Se9, Se’, Se10) conditions, consistently with literature. Cold-climate sapropel equivalents are characterised by the absence of an oligotrophic phase, whereas warm-temeprate-climate sapropel equivalents present both the oligotrophic and the eutrophic phases (except for Se1). Sea floor conditions vary, according to benthic foraminifers’ assemblages, from relatively well oxygenated (Se1, Se3), to dysoxic (Se9, Se’, Se10), to highly dysoxic (Se4, Se6, Se8) to events during which benthic foraminifers are absent (Se5, Se7). These two latter levels are also characterised by the lamination of the sediment, feature never observed in literature in such shallow records. The enhanced stratification of the water column during the events Se8, Se7, Se6, Se5, Se4, and the concurring strong dilution of shallow water, pointed out by the isotope record, lead to the hypothesis of a period of intense precipitation in the Central Adriatic region, possibly due to a northward shift of the African Monsoon. Finally, the expression of Central Adriatic PRAD1-2 Se5 equivalent was compared with the same event, as registered in other Eastern Mediterranean areas. The sequence of substantially the same planktic foraminifers’ bioevents has been consistently recognised, indicating a similar evolution of the water column all over the Eastern Mediterranean; yet, the synchronism of these events cannot be demonstrated. A high resolution analysis of late Holocene (last 6000 years BP) climate change was carried out for the Adriatic area, through the recognition of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ bioevents. In particular, peaks of planktic Globigerinoides sacculifer (four during the last 5500 years BP in the most expanded core) have been interpreted, based on the ecological requirements of this species, as warm-climate, arid intervals, correspondent to periods of relative climatic optimum, such as, for instance, the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Age, the Late Bronze Age and the Copper Age. Consequently, the minima in the abundance of this biomarker could correspond to relatively cooler and more rainy periods. These conclusions are in good agreement with the isotopic and the pollen data. The Last Occurrence (LO) of G. sacculifer has been dated in this work at an average age of 550 years BP, and it is the best bioevent approximating the base of the Little Ice Age in the Adriatic. Recent literature reports the same bioevent in the Levantine Basin, showing a rather consistent age. Therefore, the LO of G. sacculifer has the potential to be extended to all the Eastern Mediterranean. Within the Little Ice Age, benthic foraminifer V. complanata shows two distinct peaks in the shallower Adriatic cores analysed, collected hundred kilometres apart, inside the mud belt environment. Based on the ecological requirements of this species, these two peaks have been interpreted as the more intense (cold and rainy) oscillations inside the LIA. The chronologic framework of the analysed cores is robust, being based on several range-finding 14C AMS ages, on estimates of the secular variation of the magnetic field, on geochemical estimates of the activity depth of 210Pb short-lived radionuclide (for the core-top ages), and is in good agreement with tephrochronologic, pollen and foraminiferal data. The intra-holocenic climate oscillations find out in the Adriatic have been compared with those pointed out in literature from other records of the Northern Hemisphere, and the chronologic constraint seems quite good. Finally, the sedimentary successions analysed allowed the review and the update of the foraminifers’ ecobiostratigraphy available from literature for the Adriatic region, thanks to the achievement of 16 ecobiozones for the last 60 kyr BP. Some bioevents are restricted to the Central Adriatic (for instance the LO of benthic Hyalinea balthica , approximating the MIS3/MIS2 boundary), others occur all over the Adriatic basin (for instance the LO of planktic Globorotalia inflata during MIS3, individuating Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle 8 (Denekamp)).

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

Mediterranean-type climate in the South Aegean (Eastern Mediterranean) during the Late Miocene: Evidence from isotope and element proxies

The present-day climate in the Mediterranean region is characterized by mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers. There is contradictory evidence as to whether the present-day conditions (“Mediterranean climate”) already existed in the Late Miocene. This thesis presents seasonally-resolved isotope and element proxy data obtained from Late Miocene reef corals from Crete (Southern Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean) in order to illustrate climate conditions in the Mediterranean region during this time. There was a transition from greenhouse to icehouse conditions without a Greenland ice sheet during the Late Miocene. Since the Greenland ice sheet is predicted to melt fully within the next millennia, Late Miocene climate mechanisms can be considered as useful analogues in evaluating models of Northern Hemispheric climate conditions in the future. So far, high resolution chemical proxy data on Late Miocene environments are limited. In order to enlarge the proxy database for this time span, coral genus Tarbellastraea was evaluated as a new proxy archive, and proved reliable based on consistent oxygen isotope records of Tarbellastraea and the established paleoenvironmental archive of coral genus Porites. In combination with lithostratigraphic data, global 87Sr/86Sr seawater chronostratigraphy was used to constrain the numerical age of the coral sites, assuming the Mediterranean Sea to be equilibrated with global open ocean water. 87Sr/86Sr ratios of Tarbellastraea and Porites from eight stratigraphically different sampling sites were measured by thermal ionization mass spectrometry. The ratios range from 0.708900 to 0.708958 corresponding to ages of 10 to 7 Ma (Tortonian to Early Messinian). Spectral analyses of multi-decadal time-series yield interannual δ18O variability with periods of ~2 and ~5 years, similar to that of modern records, indicating that pressure field systems comparable to those controlling the seasonality of present-day Mediterranean climate existed, at least intermittently, already during the Late Miocene. In addition to sea surface temperature (SST), δ18O composition of coral aragonite is controlled by other parameters such as local seawater composition which as a result of precipitation and evaporation, influences sea surface salinity (SSS). The Sr/Ca ratio is considered to be independent of salinity, and was used, therefore, as an additional proxy to estimate seasonality in SST. Major and trace element concentrations in coral aragonite determined by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry yield significant variations along a transect perpendicular to coral growth increments, and record varying environmental conditions. The comparison between the average SST seasonality of 7°C and 9°C, derived from average annual δ18O (1.1‰) and Sr/Ca (0.579 mmol/mol) amplitudes, respectively, indicates that the δ18O-derived SST seasonality is biased by seawater composition, reducing the δ18O amplitude by 0.3‰. This value is equivalent to a seasonal SSS variation of 1‰, as observed under present-day Aegean Sea conditions. Concentration patterns of non-lattice bound major and trace elements, related to trapped particles within the coral skeleton, reflect seasonal input of suspended load into the reef environment. δ18O, Sr/Ca and non-lattice bound element proxy records, as well as geochemical compositions of the trapped particles, provide evidence for intense precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean during winters. Winter rain caused freshwater discharge and transport of weathering products from the hinterland into the reef environment. There is a trend in coral δ18O data to more positive mean δ18O values (–2.7‰ to –1.7‰) coupled with decreased seasonal δ18O amplitudes (1.1‰ to 0.7‰) from 10 to 7 Ma. This relationship is most easily explained in terms of more positive summer δ18O. Since coral diversity and annual growth rates indicate more or less constant average SST for the Mediterranean from the Tortonian to the Early Messinian, more positive mean and summer δ18O indicate increasing aridity during the Late Miocene, and more pronounced during summers. The analytical results implicate that winter rainfall and summer drought, the main characteristics of the present-day Mediterranean climate, were already present in the Mediterranean region during the Late Miocene. Some models have argued that the Mediterranean climate did not exist in this region prior to the Pliocene. However, the data presented here show that conditions comparable to those of the present-day existed either intermittently or permanently since at least about 10 Ma.

Role of the stratospheric dynamics in the southern hemisphere long-term climate change

Il raffreddamento stratosferico associato alla riduzione dell’ozono nelle regioni polari induce un rafforzamento dei venti occidentali nella bassa stratosfera, uno spostamento verso il polo e un’intensificazione del jet troposferico delle medie latitudini. Si riscontra una proiezione di questi cambiamenti a lungo termine sulla polarità ad alto indice di un modo di variabilità climatica, il Southern Annular Mode, alla superficie, dove i venti occidentali alle medie latitudini guidano la Corrente Circumpolare Antartica influenzando la circolazione oceanica meridionale e probabilmente l’estensione del ghiaccio marino ed i flussi di carbonio aria-mare nell’Oceano Meridionale. Una limitata rappresentazione dei processi stratosferici nei modelli climatici per la simulazione del passato e la previsione dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, sembrerebbe portare ad un errore nella rappresentazione dei cambiamenti troposferici a lungo termine nelle rispettive simulazioni. In questa tesi viene condotta un’analisi multi-model mettendo insieme i dati di output derivati da diverse simulazioni di modelli climatici accoppiati oceano-atmosfera, che partecipano al progetto CMIP5, con l'obiettivo di comprendere come le diverse rappresentazioni della dinamica stratosferica possano portare ad una differente rappresentazione dei cambiamenti climatici alla superficie. Vengono utilizzati modelli “High Top” (HT), che hanno una buona rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica, e modelli “Low Top” (LT), che invece non ne hanno. I risultati vengono confrontati con le reanalisi meteorologiche globali disponibili (ERA-40). Viene mostrato come la rappresentazione e l’intensità del raffreddamento radiativo iniziale e di quello dinamico nella bassa stratosfera, nei modelli, siano i fattori chiave che controllano la successiva risposta troposferica, e come il raffreddamento stesso dipenda dalla rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica. Si cerca inoltre di differenziare i modelli in base alla loro rappresentazione del raffreddamento radiativo e dinamico nella bassa stratosfera e alla risposta del jet troposferico. Nei modelli, si riscontra che il trend del jet nell'intera troposfera è significativamente correlato linearmente al raffreddamento stesso della bassa stratosfera.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

A Novel Method for the Homogenization of Daily Temperature Series and Its Relevance for Climate Change Analysis

Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Variations in Ice Rafted Detritus on Beaches in the South Shetland Islands: A Possible Climate Proxy

Raised beach ridges on Livingston Island of the South Shetland Islands display variations in both quantity and source of ice rafted detritus (IRD) received over time. Whereas the modem beach exhibits little IRD, all of which is of local origin, the next highest beach (similar to250 C-14 yr BP) has large amounts, some of which comes from as far away as the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant quantities of IRD also were deposited similar to 1750 C-14 yr BP. Both time periods coincide with generally cooler regional conditions and, at least in the case of the similar to250 yr old beach, local glacial advance. We suggest that the increases in ice rafting may reflect periods of greater glacial activity, altered ocean circulation, and/or greater iceberg preservation during the late Holocene. Limited IRD and lack of far-travelled erratics on the modem beach are both consistent with the ongoing warming trend in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

Climate and soil characteristics and soil arthropod abundance on Anchorage, Signy and Falkland Islands

Over a 2-year study, we investigated the effect of environmental change on the diversity and abundance of soil arthropod communities (Acari and Collembola) in the Maritime Antarctic and the Falkland Islands. Open Top Chambers (OTCs), as used extensively in the framework of the northern boreal International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), were used to increase the temperature in contrasting communities on three islands along a latitudinal temperature gradient, ranging from the Falkland Islands (51°S, mean annual temperature 7.5 °C) to Signy Island (60°S, -2.3°C) and Anchorage Island (67°S, -3.8°C). At each island an open and a closed plant community were studied: lichen vs. moss at the Antarctic sites, and grass vs. dwarf shrub at the Falkland Islands. The OTCs raised the soil surface temperature during most months of the year. During the summer the level of warming achieved was 1.7 °C at the Falkland Islands, 0.7 °C at Signy Island, and 1.1 °C at Anchorage Island. The native arthropod community diversity decreased with increasing latitude. In contrast with this pattern, Collembola abundance in the closed vegetation (dwarf shrub or moss) communities increased by at least an order of magnitude from the Falkland Islands (9.0 +/- 2 x 10**3 ind./m**2) to Signy (3.3 +/- 8.0 x 10**4 ind./m**2) and Anchorage Island (3.1 +/- 0.82 x 10**5 ind./m**2). The abundance of Acari did not show a latitudinal trend. Abundance and diversity of Acari and Collembola were unaffected by the warming treatment on the Falkland Islands and Anchorage Island. However, after two seasons of experimental warming, the total abundance of Collembola decreased (p < 0.05) in the lichen community on Signy Island as a result of the population decline of the isotomid Cryptopygus antarcticus. In the same lichen community there was also a decline (p < 0.05) of the mesostigmatid predatory mite Gamasellus racovitzai, and a significant increase in the total number of Prostigmata. Overall, our data suggest that the consequences of an experimental temperature increase of 1-2°C, comparable to the magnitude currently seen through recent climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula region, on soil arthropod communities in this region may not be similar for each location but is most likely to be small and initially slow to develop.

Pollen record and calculated holocene vegetation and climate dynamics from Sihailongwan Maar Lake, NE China

High-resolution palynological analysis on annually laminated sediments of Sihailongwan Maar Lake (SHL) provides new insights into the Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics of NE China. The robust chronology of the presented record is based on varve counting and AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant macro-remains. In addition to the qualitative interpretation of the pollen data, we provide quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate based on the method of biomization and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) technique, respectively. Power spectra were computed to investigate the frequency domain distribution of proxy signals and potential natural periodicities. Pollen assemblages, pollen-derived biome scores and climate variables as well as the cyclicity pattern indicate that NE China experienced significant changes in temperature and moisture conditions during the Holocene. Within the earliest phase of the Holocene, a large-scale reorganization of vegetation occurred, reflecting the reconstructed shift towards higher temperatures and precipitation values and the initial Holocene strengthening and northward expansion of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Afterwards, summer temperatures remain at a high level, whereas the reconstructed precipitation shows an increasing trend until approximately 4000 cal. yr BP. Since 3500 cal. yr BP, temperature and precipitation values decline, indicating moderate cooling and weakening of the EASM. A distinct periodicity of 550-600 years and evidence of a Mid-Holocene transition from a temperature-triggered to a predominantly moisture-triggered climate regime are derived from the power spectra analysis. The results obtained from SHL are largely consistent with other palaeoenvironmental records from NE China, substantiating the regional nature of the reconstructed vegetation and climate patterns. However, the reconstructed climate changes contrast with the moisture evolution recorded in S China and the mid-latitude (semi-)arid regions of N China. Whereas a clear insolation-related trend of monsoon intensity over the Holocene is lacking from the SHL record, variations in the coupled atmosphere-Pacific Ocean system can largely explain the reconstructed changes in NE China.