An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Swiss Alps: a study of adaptive planning

The Swiss Alps will experience pronounced effects of climate change due to the combination of their latitudinal positioning, altitude and unique ecosystems, placing socio-economic stresses on alpine communities, many of which rely on seasonal tourism. Studies into tourism adaptation within the Swiss Alps have so far focused on the technical adaptation options of alpine stakeholders, rather than perceptions of adaptation to climate change at the operational and community level. This article investigates attitudes to adaptation in two alpine regions within Switzerland's well-established decentralized political framework, through semi-structured qualitative interviews. Stakeholders focused almost entirely on maintaining the status quo of winter tourism, through technical or marketing measures, with mixed attitudes towards climatic impacts. A matrix based on the relative internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of adaptation measures (a SWOT framework) was used to assess the measures and suggest how stakeholders could capitalize on the new opportunities thrown up by climate change to create a competitive advantage. A comprehensive and collaborative planning approach is vital to enable policy makers and stakeholders to maximize opportunities, minimize the adverse effects of climate change on the local economy, and develop inclusive adaptation measures that benefit the entire region in order to create more sustainable social, economic and environmental structures.

Have we been underestimating the effects of ocean acidification in zooplankton?

Understanding how copepods may respond to ocean acidification (OA) is critical for risk assessments of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. The perception that copepods are insensitive to OA is largely based on experiments with adult females. Their apparent resilience to increased carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations has supported the view that copepods are 'winners' under OA. Here, we show that this conclusion is not robust, that sensitivity across different life stages is significantly misrepresented by studies solely using adult females. Stage-specific responses to pCO2 (385-6000 µatm) were studied across different life stages of a calanoid copepod, monitoring for lethal and sublethal responses. Mortality rates varied significantly across the different life stages, with nauplii showing the highest lethal effects; nauplii mortality rates increased threefold when pCO2 concentrations reached 1000 µatm (year 2100 scenario) with LC50 at 1084 µatm pCO2. In comparison, eggs, early copepodite stages, and adult males and females were not affected lethally until pCO2 concentrations >= 3000 µatm. Adverse effects on reproduction were found, with >35% decline in nauplii recruitment at 1000 µatm pCO2. This suppression of reproductive scope, coupled with the decreased survival of early stage progeny at this pCO2 concentration, has clear potential to damage population growth dynamics in this species. The disparity in responses seen across the different developmental stages emphasizes the need for a holistic life-cycle approach to make species-level projections to climate change. Significant misrepresentation and error propagation can develop from studies which attempt to project outcomes to future OA conditions solely based on single life history stage exposures.

Wheat adaptation to climate change in the Mediterranean Basin: retracing the past to predict the future

Wheat productivity is alarmingly threatened by climate change in the Mediterranean Basin, where it is mainly cultivated as a rainfed crop and where the latest climatic projections foresee a rise in temperatures and a reduction in precipitation, with important yield losses expected, being drought the main abiotic stress hampering wheat productivity. Assessing and quantifying the alterations in wheat life cycle caused by climate change is thus a key goal, as well as understating the underlying mechanisms of drought resistance. The first part of this thesis is focused on these main topics. A precise quantification of climate change effects on wheat in this area was performed through a case study, coupling phenological, meteorological and grain quality data before and after climate change. Then, accurate and detailed literature search was performed, reviewing the main controversies regarding the reliability of various functional traits to be used as breeding tools for improving wheat drought stress resistance. The second part of this thesis is focused in identifying interesting genetic material to improve wheat drought stress resistance in the Mediterranean Basin, analyzing drought response on a panel of tetraploid wheat accessions in vitro and in vivo as well as in open field trials, chosen in the attempt to represent as much as possible the biodiversity of tetraploid wheat. The third part of this thesis highlights differences in technological, nutritional and nutraceutical quality between modern cultivars and landraces, focusing on lipids, primary metabolites and bioactive compounds. In fact, wheat adaptation to climate change does not only mean to guarantee satisfactory yields in adverse conditions. It also means to provide millions of consumers with a diet-base food crop, with an improved nutraceutical and nutritional quality. Therefore, investigation and selection process for abiotic stress resistance and for improved quality has to go hand in hand.

Surveillance for adverse events after DTwP/Hib vaccination in Brazil: sensitivity and factors associated with reporting

We estimated the sensitivity, i.e., the proportion of all cases of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) reported to the Brazilian passive surveillance for adverse events following immunization (PSAEFI) with the diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTwP-Hib) vaccine, as well as investigating factors associated with AEFIs reporting. During 2003–2004, 8303 AEFIs associated with DTwP-Hib were reported; hypotonic-hyporesponsive episodes (HHEs), fever and convulsions being the most common. Cure without sequel was achieved in 98.4 per cent of the cases. The mean sensitivity of the PSAEFI was 22.3 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, for HHE and convulsions, varying widely among states. Reporting rates correlated positively with the Human Development Index and coverage of adequate prenatal care, correlating negatively with infant mortality rates. Quality of life indicators and the degree of organization of health services are associated with greater PSAEFI sensitivity. In addition to consistently describing the principal AEFIs, PSAEFI showed the DTwP/Hib vaccine to be safe and allayed public fears related to its use

Effects of creatine supplementation on renal function: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial

Creatine (CR) supplementation is commonly used by athletes. However, its effects on renal function remain controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of creatine supplementation on renal function in healthy sedentary males (18-35 years old) submitted to exercise training. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed. Subjects (n = 18) were randomly allocated to receive treatment with either creatine (CR) (similar to 10 g day(-1) over 3 months) or placebo (PL) (dextrose). All subjects undertook moderate intensity aerobic training, in three 40-min sessions per week, during 3 months. Serum creatinine, serum and urinary sodium and potassium were determined at baseline and at the end of the study. Cystatin C was assessed prior to training (PRE), after 4 (POST 4) and 12 weeks (POST 12). Cystatin C levels (mg L-1) (PRE CR: 0.82 +/- 0.09; PL: 0.88 +/- 0.07 vs. POST 12 CR: 0.71 +/- 0.06; PL: 0.75 +/- 0.09, P = 0.0001) were decreased over time, suggesting an increase in glomerular filtration rate. Serum creatinine decreased with training in PL but was unchanged with training in CR. No significant differences were observed within or between groups in other parameters investigated. The decrease in cystatin C indicates that high-dose creatine supplementation over 3 months does not provoke any renal dysfunction in healthy males undergoing aerobic training. In addition, the results suggest that moderate aerobic training per se may improve renal function.

The azo dye Disperse Orange 1 induces DNA damage and cytotoxic effects but does not cause ecotoxic effects in Daphnia similis and Vibrio fischeri

Azo dyes constitute the largest group of colorants used in industry and can pass through municipal waste water plants nearly unchanged due to their resistance to aerobic treatment, which potentially exposes humans and local biota to adverse effects. Unfortunately, little is known about their environmental fate. Under anaerobic conditions, some azo dyes are cleaved by microorganisms forming potentially carcinogenic aromatic amines. In the present study, the azo dye Disperse Orange 1, widely used in textile dyeing, was tested using the comet, Salmonella/microsome mutagenicity, cell viability, Daphnia similis and Microtox (R) assays. The human hepatoma cell line (HepG2) was used in the comet assay and for cell viability. In the mutagenicity assay. Salmonella typhimurium strains with different levels of nitroreductase and o-acetyltransferase were used. The dye showed genotoxic effects with respect to HepG2 cells at concentrations of 0.2, 0.4, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 mu g/mL. In the mutagenicity assay, greater responses were obtained with the strains TA98 and YG1041, suggesting that this compound mainly induces frameshift mutations. Moreover, the mutagenicity was greatly enhanced with the strains overproducing nitroreductase and o-acetyltransferase, showing the importance of these enzymes in the mutagenicity of this dye. In addition, the compound induced apoptosis after 72 h in contact with the HepG2 cells. No toxic effects were observed for either D. similis or Vibrio fischeri. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of chronic exposure to traffic derived air pollution on the ocular surface

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical relevance of chronic exposure to ambient levels of traffic derived air pollution on the ocular surface. Methods: A panel study involving 55 volunteers was carried out in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We measured the mean individual levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) exposure for 7 days. All subjects answered the Ocular Symptom Disease Index (OSDI) and a symptoms inventory. Subsequently, subjects underwent Schirmer I test, biomicroscopy, vital staining and tear breakup time (TOUT) assessment. Subject`s mean daily exposure to NO(2) was categorized in quartiles. Statistical analysis was performed using one-way ANOVA, Tukey HSD and Chi-Square tests. Results: A dose-response pattern was detected between OSDI scores and NO(2) quartiles (p < 0.05). There was a significant association between NO(2) quartiles and reported ocular irritation (X(2) = 9.2, p < 0.05) and a significant negative association between TBUT and NO(2) exposure (p < 0.05, R = -0.316. Spearman`s correlation). There was a significant increase in the frequency of meibomitis in subjects exposed to higher levels of NO(2) (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Subjects exposed to higher levels of traffic derived air pollution reported more ocular discomfort symptoms and presented greater tear film instability, suggesting that the ocular discomfort symptoms and tear breakup time could be used as convenient bioindicators of the adverse health effects of traffic derived air pollution exposure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the effects of tramadol, codeine, and ketoprofen alone or in combination on postoperative pain and on concentrations of blood glucose, serum cortisol, and serum interleukin-6 in dogs undergoing maxillectomy or mandibulectomy

Objective-To compare analgesic effects of tramadol, codeine, and ketoprofen administered alone and in combination and their effects on concentrations of blood glucose, serum cortisol, and serum interleukin (IL)-6 in dogs undergoing maxillectomy or mandibulectomy. Animals-42 dogs with oral neoplasms. Procedures-30 minutes before the end of surgery, dogs received SC injections of tramadol (2 mg/kg), codeine (2 mg/kg), ketoprofen (2 mg/kg), tramadol + ketoprofen, or codeine + ketoprofen (at the aforementioned dosages). Physiologic variables, analgesia, and sedation were measured before (baseline) and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 24 hours after surgery. Blood glucose, serum cortisol, and serum IL-6 concentrations were measured 1, 3, 5, and 24 hours after administration of analgesics. Results-All treatments provided adequate postoperative analgesia. Significant increases in mean +/- SD blood glucose concentrations were detected in dogs receiving tramadol (96 +/- 14 mg/dL), codeine (120 +/- 66 mg/dL and 96 +/- 21 mg/dL), ketoprofen (105 +/- 22 mg/dL), and codeine + ketoprofen (104 +/- 16 mg/dL) at 5, 1 and 3, 5, and 3 hours after analgesic administration, respectively, compared with preoperative (baseline) values. There were no significant changes in physiologic variables, serum IL-6 concentrations, or serum cortisol concentrations. Dogs administered codeine + ketoprofen had light but significant sedation at 4, 5, and 24 hours. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Opioids alone or in combination with an NSAID promoted analgesia without adverse effects during the 24-hour postoperative period in dogs undergoing maxillectomy or mandibulectomy for removal of oral neoplasms. (Am J Vet Res 2010;71:1019-1026)

Patient based method of assessing adverse events in clinical trials in rheumatology: the revised Stanford Toxicity Index

We describe the progress towards developing a patient rated toxicity index that meets all of the patient-important attributes defined by the OMERACT Drug Safety Working Party, These attributes are frequency, severity. importance to patient, importance to the clinician, impact on economics, impact on activities, and integration of adverse effects with benefits. The Stanford Toxicity Index (STI) has been revised to collect all attributes with the exception of impact on activities. However, since the STI is a part of the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). impact on activities is collected by the HAQ. In particular, a new question asks patients to rate overall satisfaction, taking into consideration both benefits and adverse effects. The nest step in the development of this tool is to ensure that the STI meets the OMERACT filter of truth, discrimination, and feasibility. Although truth and feasibility have been confirmed by comparisons within the ARAMIS database, discrimination needs to be assessed in clinical trials.

Recoverable reserves and support effects when optimizing open pit mine designs

Orebody modelling, support effects and the estimation of recoverable reserves are key parts of open pit optimization studies. A case study is presented on the estimation of recoverable reserves using an implementation of indicator kriging where metal quantity is used to select cutoffs, and support corrections founded on a conditional simulation approach. Mining selectivity is explored in the subsequent optimization study to compare results from indicator kriging of grade estimates on a regular size blocks and indicator kriging estimates on small size blocks. The use of indicator kriging models adjusted for a given selectivity and the use of grade proportions in each block for the optimization study, provide a presentation of the expected ore recovery for a predefined level of selectivity. The case study shows that indicator kriging estimation with full accounting of block grade distributions generates substantially better results in the pit optimization study. In addition, the adverse effects of small blocks and over-smoothing on optimization results are illustrated.

A comparison of the effects of propofol and thiopental on tear production in dogs

The tear film plays an important role in maintaining the integrity of the ocular suface. During general anesthesia, tear production is considerably reduced, which requires care to prevent adverse effects that result in diseases of these structures. Studies comparing the effects of induction of anaesthesia with thiopental and propofol on tear production have not been carried out yet. Because these drugs are used in veterinary medicine, we decided to evaluate the tear production in 30 dogs undergoing experimental surgery as well as routine procedures at the veterinary hospital of Federal University of Viçosa. Patients were divided into two groups of equal number. All animals were sedated with clorpromazine and maintained with isoflurane in diluted oxygen. Group 1 was induced with thiopental whereas group 2 with propofol. Schirmer tear test 1 was performed before sedation (T0), 15 minutes after sedation (T1) and 10 minutes after induction of anesthesia (T2) with the drug chosen for one of the groups. There was a significant decrease in tear production for both drugs, but no significant statistical differences were found between them. Thus, considering the results and the way in which the study was conducted, we suggest protecting the cornea and conjunctiva of patients during anesthesia using any of the drugs here evaluated.

Are air-borne mycotoxins a public health concern in Portugal?

Introduction - Microscopic filamentous fungi, under suitable environmental conditions, can lead to the production of highly toxic chemical substances, commonly known as mycotoxins. The most widespread and studied mycotoxins are metabolites of some genera of moulds such as Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium. Quite peculiar conditions may influence mycotoxin biosynthesis, such as climate, geographical location, cultivation practices, storage and type of substrate. Toxicity has been extensively investigated for the most important mycotoxins, such as aflatoxins, ochratoxin A and Fusarium toxins, and much information derived from toxicokinetics in animal models has also been obtained. The adverse effects are mainly related to genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, teratogenicity and immunotoxicity. Aim of the study - To identify fungal species able to produce important mycotoxins in different Portuguese settings.

Air pollution effects on myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE: Myocardial infarction is an acute and severe cardiovascular disease that generally leads to patient admissions to intensive care units and few cases are initially admitted to infirmaries. The objective of the study was to assess whether estimates of air pollution effects on myocardial infarction morbidity are modified by the source of health information. METHODS: The study was carried out in hospitals of the Brazilian Health System in the city of São Paulo, Southern Brazil. A time series study (1998-1999) was performed using two outcomes: infarction admissions to infirmaries and to intensive care units, both for people older than 64 years of age. Generalized linear models controlling for seasonality (long and short-term trends) and weather were used. The eight-day cumulative effects of air pollutants were assessed using third degree polynomial distributed lag models. RESULTS: Almost 70% of daily hospital admissions due to myocardial infarction were to infirmaries. Despite that, the effects of air pollutants on infarction were higher for intensive care units admissions. All pollutants were positively associated with the study outcomes but SO2 presented the strongest statistically significant association. An interquartile range increase on SO2 concentration was associated with increases of 13% (95% CI: 6-19) and 8% (95% CI: 2-13) of intensive care units and infirmary infarction admissions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It may be assumed there is a misclassification of myocardial infarction admissions to infirmaries leading to overestimation. Also, despite the absolute number of events, admissions to intensive care units data provides a more adequate estimate of the magnitude of air pollution effects on infarction admissions.

The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in São Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in São Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.