Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Decision-making style and self-concept

The Flinders Decision-Making Questionnaire (FDMQ) (Mann, 1982), which measures three decision-making styles and decision-making self-esteem, and the Self-Description Questionnaire III (SDQ HI) (Marsh & O'Neill, 1984), which measures 13 facets of self-concept; were administered to 475 university students to investigate some of the tenets of Janis and Mann's (1976, 1977) conflict model of decision-making and to further investigate the influence of self-concept on decision-making behaviours. The findings empirically validated Janis and Mann's (1977) link between decision-making self-esteem and decision-making style. Modest relationships, in the predicted direction, were found between decision-making self-esteem and the three decision-making styles (Vigilance, Defensive Avoidance, and Hypervigilance). In addition, specific facets of self-concept (General, Verbal, Academic, Honesty/Reliability and Problem-Solving Self Concepts) were related to self-reported decision-making behaviours.

Board members’ contribution to strategic decision-making in small firms

This article explores how the boards of small firms actually undertake to perform strategic tasks. Board strategic involvement has seldom been investigated in the context of small firms. We seek to make a contribution by investigating antecedents of board strategic involvement. The antecedents are “board working style” and “board quality attributes”, which go beyond the board composition features of board size, CEO duality, the ratio of non-executive to executive directors and ownership. Hypotheses were tested on a sample of 497 Norwegian firms (from 5 to 30 employees). Our results show that board working style and board quality attributes rather than board composition features enhance board strategic involvement. Moreover, board quality attributes outperform board working style in fostering board strategic involvement

Delivering value for money in the procurement of public sector major infrastructure : a new first-order decision making model

The significant challenge faced by government in demonstrating value for money in the delivery of major infrastructure resolves around estimating costs and benefits of alternative modes of procurement. Faced with this challenge, one approach is to focus on a dominant performance outcome visible on the opening day of the asset, as the means to select the procurement approach. In this case, value for money becomes a largely nominal concept and determined by selected procurement mode delivering, or not delivering, the selected performance outcome, and notwithstanding possible under delivery on other desirable performance outcomes, as well as possibly incurring excessive transaction costs. This paper proposes a mind-set change in this particular practice, to an approach in which the analysis commences with the conditions pertaining to the project and proceeds to deploy transaction cost and production cost theory to indicate a procurement approach that can claim superior value for money relative to other competing procurement modes. This approach to delivering value for money in relative terms is developed in a first-order procurement decision making model outlined in this paper. The model developed could be complementary to the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) in terms of cross validation and the model more readily lends itself to public dissemination. As a possible alternative to the PSC, the model could save time and money in preparation of project details to lesser extent than that required in the reference project and may send a stronger signal to the market that may encourage more innovation and competition.

Developing a research method to test a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). The paper begins with an update on a key development in a new early/first-order procurement decision making model that deploys production cost/benefit theory and theories concerning transaction costs from the New Institutional Economics, in order to identify a procurement mode that is likely to deliver the best ratio of production costs and transaction costs to production benefits, and therefore deliver superior VfM relative to alternative procurement modes. In doing so, the new procurement model is also able to address the uncertainty concerning the relative merits of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and non-PPP procurement approaches. The main aim of the paper is to develop competition as a dependent variable/proxy for VfM and a hypothesis (overarching proposition), as well as developing a research method to test the new procurement model. Competition reflects both production costs and benefits (absolute level of competition) and transaction costs (level of realised competition) and is a key proxy for VfM. Using competition as a proxy for VfM, the overarching proposition is given as: When the actual procurement mode matches the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match potential competition (based on actual capacity). To collect data to test this proposition, the research method that is developed in this paper combines a survey and case study approach. More specifically, data collection instruments for the surveys to collect data on actual procurement, actual competition and potential competition are outlined. Finally, plans for analysing this survey data are briefly mentioned, along with noting the planned use of analytical pattern matching in deploying the new procurement model and in order to develop the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode.

Manipulating task constraints to improve tactical knowledge and collective decision-making in rugby union

In team sports such as rugby union, a myriad of decisions and actions occur within the boundaries that compose the performance perceptual- motor workspace. The way that these performance boundaries constrain decision making and action has recently interested researchers and has involved developing an understanding of the concept of constraints. Considering team sports as complex dynamical systems, signifies that they are composed of multiple, independent agents (i.e. individual players) whose interactions are highly integrated. This level of complexity is characterized by the multiple ways that players in a rugby field can interact. It affords the emergence of rich patterns of behaviour, such as rucks, mauls, and collective tactical actions that emerge due to players’ adjustments to dynamically varying competition environments. During performance, the decisions and actions of each player are constrained by multiple causes (e.g. technical and tactical skills, emotional states, plans, thoughts, etc.) that generate multiple effects (e.g. to run or pass, to move forward to tackle or maintain position and drive the opponent to the line), a prime feature in a complex systems approach to team games performance (Bar- Yam, 2004). To establish a bridge between the complexity sciences and learning design in team sports like rugby union, the aim of practice sessions is to prepare players to pick up and explore the information available in the multiple constraints (i.e. the causes) that influence performance. Therefore, learning design in training sessions should be soundly based on the interactions amongst players (i.e.teammates and opponents) that will occur in rugby matches. To improve individual and collective decision making in rugby union, Passos and colleagues proposed in previous work a performer- environment interaction- based approach rather than a traditional performer- based approach (Passos, Araújo, Davids & Shuttleworth, 2008).

Career decision making among gifted students : the mediation of teachers

There is international concern about falling enrollments in higher education, particularly the sciences, by gifted students. In this mixed method study, the top performing 200 students (approximately 1%) within a particular education jurisdiction at the beginning of their first year at university were surveyed and 20 interviewed about their school experiences using a biographical interpretive design. This study focussed on identifying those characteristics of teachers which supported students’ interests. Participants identified seven characteristics of teachers that students identified as supportive of their potential career pathways. These included connecting pedagogical practices with student interests, being passionate about their subject matter, having good content knowledge, making learning experiences relevant, setting high expectations of students, being a good explainer of complex ideas, and being a good classroom manager. This study extends our knowledge of how teachers influence gifted students and has implications for both pre-service and in-service teacher education and career counselling.

Information sharing in Onesocialweb using a multiple profile manager to better informed medical decision making processes

The study shows an alternative solution to existing efforts at solving the problem of how to centrally manage and synchronise users’ Multiple Profiles (MP) across multiple discrete social networks. Most social network users hold more than one social network account and utilise them in different ways depending on the digital context (Iannella, 2009a). They may, for example, enjoy friendly chat on Facebook1, professional discussion on LinkedIn2, and health information exchange on PatientsLikeMe3 In this thesis the researcher proposes a framework for the management of a user’s multiple online social network profiles. A demonstrator, called Multiple Profile Manager (MPM), will be showcased to illustrate how effective the framework will be. The MPM will achieve the required profile management and synchronisation using a free, open, decentralized social networking platform (OSW) that was proposed by the Vodafone Group in 2010. The proposed MPM will enable a user to create and manage an integrated profile (IP) and share/synchronise this profile with all their social networks. The necessary protocols to support the prototype are also proposed by the researcher. The MPM protocol specification defines an Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) extension for sharing vCard and social network accounts information between the MPM Server, MPM Client, and social network sites (SNSs). . Therefore many web users need to manage disparate profiles across many distributed online sources. Maintaining these profiles is cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient, and may lead to lost opportunity. The writer of this thesis adopted a research approach and a number of use cases for the implementation of the project. The use cases were created to capture the functional requirements of the MPM and to describe the interactions between users and the MPM. In the research a development process was followed in establishing the prototype and related protocols. The use cases were subsequently used to illustrate the prototype via the screenshots taken of the MPM client interfaces. The use cases also played a role in evaluating the outcomes of the research such as the framework, prototype, and the related protocols. An innovative application of this project is in the area of public health informatics. The researcher utilised the prototype to examine how the framework might benefit patients and physicians. The framework can greatly enhance health information management for patients and more importantly offer a more comprehensive personal health overview of patients to physicians. This will give a more complete picture of the patient’s background than is currently available and will prove helpful in providing the right treatment. The MPM prototype and related protocols have a high application value as they can be integrated into the real OSW platform and so serve users in the modern digital world. They also provide online users with a real platform for centrally storing their complete profile data, efficiently managing their personal information, and moreover, synchronising the overall complete profile with each of their discrete profiles stored in their different social network sites.

The governance of inter-organisational decision-making : understanding the impacts of informal networks on formal decision-making regimes in the Brisbane Airport region

Airports and cities inevitably recognise the value that each brings the other; however, the separation in decision-making authority for what to build, where, when and how provides a conundrum for both parties. Airports often want a say in what is developed outside of the airport fence, and cities often want a say in what is developed inside the airport fence. Defining how much of a say airports and cities have in decisions beyond their jurisdictional control is likely to be a topic that continues so long as airports and cities maintain separate formal decision-making processes for what to build, where, when and how. However, the recent Green and White Papers for a new National Aviation Policy have made early inroads to formalising relationships between Australia’s major airports and their host cities. At present, no clear indication (within practice or literature) is evident to the appropriateness of different governance arrangements for decisions to develop in situations that bring together the opposing strategic interests of airports and cities; thus leaving decisions for infrastructure development as complex decision-making spaces that hold airport and city/regional interests at stake. The line of enquiry is motivated by a lack of empirical research on networked decision-making domains outside of the realm of institutional theorists (Agranoff & McGuire, 2001; Provan, Fish & Sydow, 2007). That is, governance literature has remained focused towards abstract conceptualisations of organisation, without focusing on the minutia of how organisation influences action in real-world applications. A recent study by Black (2008) has provided an initial foothold for governance researchers into networked decision-making domains. This study builds upon Black’s (2008) work by aiming to explore and understand the problem space of making decisions subjected to complex jurisdictional and relational interdependencies. That is, the research examines the formal and informal structures, relationships, and forums that operationalise debates and interactions between decision-making actors as they vie for influence over deciding what to build, where, when and how in airport-proximal development projects. The research mobilises a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods to examine three embedded cases of airport-proximal development from a network governance perspective. Findings from the research provide a new understanding to the ways in which informal actor networks underpin and combine with formal decision-making networks to create new (or realigned) governance spaces that facilitate decision-making during complex phases of development planning. The research is timely, and responds well to Isett, Mergel, LeRoux, Mischen and Rethemeyer’s (2011) recent critique of limitations within current network governance literature, specifically to their noted absence of empirical studies that acknowledge and interrogate the simultaneity of formal and informal network structures within network governance arrangements (Isett et al., 2011, pp. 162-166). The combination of social network analysis (SNA) techniques and thematic enquiry has enabled findings to document and interpret the ways in which decision-making actors organise to overcome complex problems for planning infrastructure. An innovative approach to using association networks has been used to provide insights to the importance of the different ways actors interact with one another, thus providing a simple yet valuable addition to the increasingly popular discipline of SNA. The research also identifies when and how different types of networks (i.e. formal and informal) are able to overcome currently known limitations to network governance (see McGuire & Agranoff, 2011), thus adding depth to the emerging body of network governance literature surrounding limitations to network ways of working (i.e. Rhodes, 1997a; Keast & Brown, 2002; Rethemeyer & Hatmaker, 2008; McGuire & Agranoff, 2011). Contributions are made to practice via the provision of a timely understanding of how horizontal fora between airports and their regions are used, particularly in the context of how they reframe the governance of decision-making for airport-proximal infrastructure development. This new understanding will enable government and industry actors to better understand the structural impacts of governance arrangements before they design or adopt them, particularly for factors such as efficiency of information, oversight, and responsiveness to change.

A new approach for power system black-start decision-making with vague set theory

Power system restoration after a large area outage involves many factors, and the procedure is usually very complicated. A decision-making support system could then be developed so as to find the optimal black-start strategy. In order to evaluate candidate black-start strategies, some indices, usually both qualitative and quantitative, are employed. However, it may not be possible to directly synthesize these indices, and different extents of interactions may exist among these indices. In the existing black-start decision-making methods, qualitative and quantitative indices cannot be well synthesized, and the interactions among different indices are not taken into account. The vague set, an extended version of the well-developed fuzzy set, could be employed to deal with decision-making problems with interacting attributes. Given this background, the vague set is first employed in this work to represent the indices for facilitating the comparisons among them. Then, a concept of the vague-valued fuzzy measure is presented, and on that basis a mathematical model for black-start decision-making developed. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method could deal with the interactions among indices and more reasonably represent the fuzzy information. Finally, an actual power system is served for demonstrating the basic features of the developed model and method.

Value management in infrastructure project design : unlocking the project team’s creativity

Value Management (VM) is a proven methodology that provides a structured framework using supporting tools and techniques that facilitate effective decision-making in many types of projects, thus achieving ‘best value’ for clients. It offers an exceptionally robust approach to exploring the need and function of projects to be aligned with client’s objectives. The functional analysis and creativity phases of VM are crucial as it focused on utilising innovative thinking to understand the objectives of clients’ projects and provide value-adding solutions at the early discovery stages of projects. There is however a perception of VM as just being another cost-cutting tool, which has overshadowed the fundamental benefits of the method, therefore negating both influence and wider use in the construction industry. This paper describes findings from a series of case studies conducted at project and corporate levels of a current public funded infrastructure projects in Malaysia. The study aims to investigate VM processes practised by the project client organisation and evaluate the effects of project team involvement in VM workshops during the design-stage of these projects. The focus of the study is on how issues related to ‘upstream’ infrastructure design aimed at improving ‘downstream’ construction process on-site, are being resolved through multi-disciplinary team consideration and decision-making. Findings from the case studies indicate that the mix of disciplines of project team members at a design-stage of a VM workshop has minimal influence on improving construction processes. However, the degree of interaction, institutionalized thinking, cultural dimensions and visualization aids adopted, have a significant impact in maximizing creativity amongst project team members during VM workshop. The case studies conducted for this research have focused on infrastructure projects that utilise traditional VM workshop as client’s chosen VM methodology to review and develop designs. Documents review and semi-structured interview with project teams are used as data collection techniques for the case study. The significant outcomes of this research are expected to offer alternative perspectives for construction professionals and clients to minimise the constraints and strengthen strategies for implementing VM on future projects.

Application of multi-criteria decision making methods to compression ignition engine efficiency and gaseous, particulate and greenhouse gas emissions

Compression ignition (CI) engine design is subject to many constraints which presents a multi-criteria optimisation problem that the engine researcher must solve. In particular, the modern CI engine must not only be efficient, but must also deliver low gaseous, particulate and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions so that its impact on urban air quality, human health, and global warming are minimised. Consequently, this study undertakes a multi-criteria analysis which seeks to identify alternative fuels, injection technologies and combustion strategies that could potentially satisfy these CI engine design constraints. Three datasets are analysed with the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations and Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (PROMETHEE-GAIA) algorithm to explore the impact of 1): an ethanol fumigation system, 2): alternative fuels (20 % biodiesel and synthetic diesel) and alternative injection technologies (mechanical direct injection and common rail injection), and 3): various biodiesel fuels made from 3 feedstocks (i.e. soy, tallow, and canola) tested at several blend percentages (20-100 %) on the resulting emissions and efficiency profile of the various test engines. The results show that moderate ethanol substitutions (~20 % by energy) at moderate load, high percentage soy blends (60-100 %), and alternative fuels (biodiesel and synthetic diesel) provide an efficiency and emissions profile that yields the most “preferred” solutions to this multi-criteria engine design problem. Further research is, however, required to reduce Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) emissions with alternative fuels, and to deliver technologies that do not significantly reduce the median diameter of particle emissions.

Feminist ethics and menopause : autonomy and decision-making in primary medical care

The construction of menopause as a long-term risk to health and the adoption of discourses of prevention has made necessary a decision by women about medical treatment; specifically regarding the use of hormone replacement therapy. In a study of general practitioners’ accounts of menopause and treatment in Australia, women's ‘choice’, ‘informed decision-making’ and ‘empowerment’ were key themes through which primary medical care for women at menopause was presented. These accounts create a position for women defined by the concept of individual choice and an ethic of autonomy. These data are a basis for theorising more generally in this paper. We critically examine the construct of ‘informed decision-making’ in relation to several approaches to ethics including bioethics and a range of feminist ethics. We identify the intensification of power relations produced by an ethic of autonomy and discuss the ways these considerations inform a feminist ethics of decision-making by women. We argue that an ‘ethic of autonomy’ and an ‘offer of choice’ in relation to health care for women at menopause, far from being emancipatory, serves to intensify power relations. The dichotomy of choice, to take or not to take hormone replacement therapy, is required to be a choice and is embedded in relations of power and bioethical discourse that construct meanings about what constitutes decision-making at menopause. The deployment of the principle of autonomy in medical practice limits decision-making by women precisely because it is detached from the construction of meaning and the self and makes invisible the relations of power of which it is a part.