Achieving a national sample of nursing homes: Balancing probability techniques and practicalities

Sampling design is critical to the quality of quantitative research, yet it does not always receive appropriate attention in nursing research. The current article details how balancing probability techniques with practical considerations produced a representative sample of Australian nursing homes (NHs). Budgetary, logistical, and statistical constraints were managed by excluding some NHs (e.g., those too difficult to access) from the sampling frame; a stratified, random sampling methodology yielded a final sample of 53 NHs from a population of 2,774. In testing the adequacy of representation of the study population, chi-square tests for goodness of fit generated nonsignificant results for distribution by distance from major city and type of organization. A significant result for state/territory was expected and was easily corrected for by the application of weights. The current article provides recommendations for conducting high-quality, probability-based samples and stresses the importance of testing the representativeness of achieved samples.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

Analyzing information flow in brain networks with nonparametric Granger causality

Multielectrode neurophysiological recording and high-resolution neuroimaging generate multivariate data that are the basis for understanding the patterns of neural interactions. How to extract directions of information flow in brain networks from these data remains a key challenge. Research over the last few years has identified Granger causality as a statistically principled technique to furnish this capability. The estimation of Granger causality currently requires autoregressive modeling of neural data. Here, we propose a nonparametric approach based on widely used Fourier and wavelet transforms to estimate both pairwise and conditional measures of Granger causality, eliminating the need of explicit autoregressive data modeling. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by applying it to synthetic data generated by network models with known connectivity and to local field potentials recorded from monkeys performing a sensorimotor task.

Conditional Probability-Based Significance Tests for Sequential Patterns in Multineuronal Spike Trains

We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.

Activation and persistence of implicit causality information in spoken language comprehension

A visual world eye-tracking study investigated the activation and persistence of implicit causality information in spoken language comprehension. We showed that people infer the implicit causality of verbs as soon as they encounter such verbs in discourse, as is predicted by proponents of the immediate focusing account (Greene & McKoon, 1995; Koornneef & Van Berkum, 2006; Van Berkum, Koornneef, Otten, & Nieuwland, 2007). Interestingly, we observed activation of implicit causality information even before people encountered the causal conjunction. However, while implicit causality information was persistent as the discourse unfolded, it did not have a privileged role as a focusing cue immediately at the ambiguous pronoun when people were resolving its antecedent. Instead, our study indicated that implicit causality does not affect all referents to the same extent, rather it interacts with other cues in the discourse, especially when one of the referents is already prominently in focus.

First passage probability during random vibration

The probability that a random process crosses an arbitrary level for the first time is expressed as a Gram—Charlier series, the leading term of which is the Poisson approximation. The coefficients of this series are related to the moments of the number of level crossings. The results are applicable to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Some numerical results are presented for the response process of a linear single-degree-of-freedom oscillator under Gaussian white noise excitation.

Spatial survival probability for one-dimensional fluctuating interfaces in the steady state

We report numerical and analytic results for the spatial survival probability for fluctuating one-dimensional interfaces with Edwards-Wilkinson or Kardar-Parisi-Zhang dynamics in the steady state. Our numerical results are obtained from analysis of steady-state profiles generated by integrating a spatially discretized form of the Edwards-Wilkinson equation to long times. We show that the survival probability exhibits scaling behavior in its dependence on the system size and the "sampling interval" used in the measurement for both "steady-state" and "finite" initial conditions. Analytic results for the scaling functions are obtained from a path-integral treatment of a formulation of the problem in terms of one-dimensional Brownian motion. A "deterministic approximation" is used to obtain closed-form expressions for survival probabilities from the formally exact analytic treatment. The resulting approximate analytic results provide a fairly good description of the numerical data.

Probability Distribution of the Eigenvalues of the Random String Equation

The probability distribution of the eigenvalues of a second-order stochastic boundary value problem is considered. The solution is characterized in terms of the zeros of an associated initial value problem. It is further shown that the probability distribution is related to the solution of a first-order nonlinear stochastic differential equation. Solutions of this equation based on the theory of Markov processes and also on the closure approximation are presented. A string with stochastic mass distribution is considered as an example for numerical work. The theoretical probability distribution functions are compared with digital simulation results. The comparison is found to be reasonably good.

Generating artificial chromosomes with probability control in genetic algorithm for machine scheduling problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm is developed by generating artificial chromosomes with probability control to solve the machine scheduling problems. Generating artificial chromosomes for Genetic Algorithm (ACGA) is closely related to Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Probabilistic Models (EAPM). The artificial chromosomes are generated by a probability model that extracts the gene information from current population. ACGA is considered as a hybrid algorithm because both the conventional genetic operators and a probability model are integrated. The ACGA proposed in this paper, further employs the ``evaporation concept'' applied in Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to solve the permutation flowshop problem. The ``evaporation concept'' is used to reduce the effect of past experience and to explore new alternative solutions. In this paper, we propose three different methods for the probability of evaporation. This probability of evaporation is applied as soon as a job is assigned to a position in the permutation flowshop problem. Experimental results show that our ACGA with the evaporation concept gives better performance than some algorithms in the literature.

The advection-condensation model and water-vapour probability density functions

The statistically steady humidity distribution resulting from an interaction of advection, modelled as an uncorrelated random walk of moist parcels on an isentropic surface, and a vapour sink, modelled as immediate condensation whenever the specific humidity exceeds a specified saturation humidity, is explored with theory and simulation. A source supplies moisture at the deep-tropical southern boundary of the domain and the saturation humidity is specified as a monotonically decreasing function of distance from the boundary. The boundary source balances the interior condensation sink, so that a stationary spatially inhomogeneous humidity distribution emerges. An exact solution of the Fokker-Planck equation delivers a simple expression for the resulting probability density function (PDF) of the wate-rvapour field and also the relative humidity. This solution agrees completely with a numerical simulation of the process, and the humidity PDF exhibits several features of interest, such as bimodality close to the source and unimodality further from the source. The PDFs of specific and relative humidity are broad and non-Gaussian. The domain-averaged relative humidity PDF is bimodal with distinct moist and dry peaks, a feature which we show agrees with middleworld isentropic PDFs derived from the ERA interim dataset. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Bounds on Probability of Error in Decision Feedback Equalizers

Evaluation of the probability of error in decision feedback equalizers is difficult due to the presence of a hard limiter in the feedback path. This paper derives the upper and lower bounds on the probability of a single error and multiple error patterns. The bounds are fairly tight. The bounds can also be used to select proper tap gains of the equalizer.

Bounds on Probability of Error Due to Co-Channel Interference

Upper bounds on the probability of error due to co-channel interference are proposed in this correspondence. The bounds are easy to compute and can be fairly tight.