Learning World Models in Environments with Manifest Causal Structure

This thesis examines the problem of an autonomous agent learning a causal world model of its environment. Previous approaches to learning causal world models have concentrated on environments that are too "easy" (deterministic finite state machines) or too "hard" (containing much hidden state). We describe a new domain --- environments with manifest causal structure --- for learning. In such environments the agent has an abundance of perceptions of its environment. Specifically, it perceives almost all the relevant information it needs to understand the environment. Many environments of interest have manifest causal structure and we show that an agent can learn the manifest aspects of these environments quickly using straightforward learning techniques. We present a new algorithm to learn a rule-based causal world model from observations in the environment. The learning algorithm includes (1) a low level rule-learning algorithm that converges on a good set of specific rules, (2) a concept learning algorithm that learns concepts by finding completely correlated perceptions, and (3) an algorithm that learns general rules. In addition this thesis examines the problem of finding a good expert from a sequence of experts. Each expert has an "error rate"; we wish to find an expert with a low error rate. However, each expert's error rate and the distribution of error rates are unknown. A new expert-finding algorithm is presented and an upper bound on the expected error rate of the expert is derived.

Combining Associational and Causal Reasoning to Solve Interpretation and Planning Problems

This report describes a paradigm for combining associational and causal reasoning to achieve efficient and robust problem-solving behavior. The Generate, Test and Debug (GTD) paradigm generates initial hypotheses using associational (heuristic) rules. The tester verifies hypotheses, supplying the debugger with causal explanations for bugs found if the test fails. The debugger uses domain-independent causal reasoning techniques to repair hypotheses, analyzing domain models and the causal explanations produced by the tester to determine how to replace faulty assumptions made by the generator. We analyze the strengths and weaknesses of associational and causal reasoning techniques, and present a theory of debugging plans and interpretations. The GTD paradigm has been implemented and tested in the domains of geologic interpretation, the blocks world, and Tower of Hanoi problems.

Causal and Teleological Reasoning in Circuit Recognition

This thesis presents a theory of human-like reasoning in the general domain of designed physical systems, and in particular, electronic circuits. One aspect of the theory, causal analysis, describes how the behavior of individual components can be combined to explain the behavior of composite systems. Another aspect of the theory, teleological analysis, describes how the notion that the system has a purpose can be used to aid this causal analysis. The theory is implemented as a computer program, which, given a circuit topology, can construct by qualitative causal analysis a mechanism graph describing the functional topology of the system. This functional topology is then parsed by a grammar for common circuit functions. Ambiguities are introduced into the analysis by the approximate qualitative nature of the analysis. For example, there are often several possible mechanisms which might describe the circuit's function. These are disambiguated by teleological analysis. The requirement that each component be assigned an appropriate purpose in the functional topology imposes a severe constraint which eliminates all the ambiguities. Since both analyses are based on heuristics, the chosen mechanism is a rationalization of how the circuit functions, and does not guarantee that the circuit actually does function. This type of coarse understanding of circuits is useful for analysis, design and troubleshooting.

Critical realism and causal analysis in international relations

Kurki, M. (2007). Critical realism and causal analysis in international relations. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 35 (2), 361-378. RAE2008

Innovation in Ireland's 'high-technology' businesses: the roles of interaction and proximity

This thesis explores the drivers of innovation in Irish high-technology businesses and estimates, in particular, the relative importance of interaction with external businesses and other organisations as a source of knowledge for innovation at the business-level. The thesis also examines the extent to which interaction for innovation in these businesses occurs on a local or regional basis. The study uses original survey data of 184 businesses in the Chemical and Pharmaceutical, Information and Communications Technology and Engineering and Electronic Devices sectors. The study considers both product and process innovation at the level of the business and develops new measures of innovation output. For the first time in an Irish study, the incidence and frequency of interaction is measured for each of a range of agents, other group companies, suppliers, customers, competitors, academic-based researchers and innovation-supporting agencies. The geographic proximity between the business and each of the most important of each of each category of agent is measured using average one-way driving distance, which is the first time such a measure has been used in an Irish study of innovation. Utilising econometric estimation techniques, it is found that interaction with customers, suppliers and innovation-supporting agencies is positively associated with innovation in Irish high-technology businesses. Surprisingly, however, interaction with academic-based researchers is found to have a negative effect on innovation output at the business-level. While interaction generally emerges as a positive influence on business innovation, there is little evidence that this occurs at a local or regional level. Furthermore, there is little support for the presence of localisation economies for high-technology sectors, though some tentative evidence of urbanisation economies. This has important implications for Irish regional, enterprise and innovation policy, which has emphasised the development of clusters of internationally competitive businesses. The thesis brings into question the suitability of a cluster-driven network based approach to business development and competitiveness in an Irish context.

Ford, Carter and Cambodia: US foreign policy and the Khmer Rouge

This thesis is an investigation into the US response to the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia between 1974 and 1981. It argues that the US experience in the Vietnam War acted as a causal factor in the formulation of its Cambodian policy during the presidencies of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. From taking power in April 1975 to their removal by the Vietnamese in January 1979, the Khmer Rouge initiated a revolution unrivalled in the 20th Century for its brutality and for the total eradication of modern society. This thesis demonstrates that the Ford administration viewed Cambodia only as it pertained to their strategy in Vietnam and, following US disengagement from Indochina all but ignored the atrocities occurring there as they instead pursued informal relations with the Khmer Rouge as a means of punishing the Vietnamese. The Carter administration formulated a foreign policy based on human rights yet failed to adequately address the genocide that occurred in Cambodia due to its temporal and regional proximity to Vietnam. Instead, this collective reluctance to reengage with the region and the resulting anti-Vietnamese attitude reinforced Brzezinski’s broader global strategy that allied the US with China in support of an independent Cambodia to further isolate Hanoi. Thus this thesis argues that the distorting impact of the Vietnam War, as well as global Cold War calculations, undermined any appreciation of the Cambodian conflict and caused both administrations to pursue policies in Cambodia that ultimately supported the Khmer Rouge regime. This project incorporates declassified material from the Ford and Carter Presidential Libraries, supplemented by the material from the National Archives and Library of Congress, and relevant newspapers and periodicals. It demonstrates that the limitations placed upon US foreign policy by their experience in the Vietnam War may be used to reveal unexplored elements in US-Cambodian relations.

Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysis of a survey

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014.Motivated by recent findings in the field of consumer science, this paper evaluates the causal effect of debit cards on household consumption using population-based data from the Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). Within the Rubin Causal Model, we focus on the estimand of population average treatment effect for the treated (PATT). We consider three existing estimators, based on regression, mixed matching and regression, propensity score weighting, and propose a new doubly-robust estimator. Semiparametric specification based on power series for the potential outcomes and the propensity score is adopted. Cross-validation is used to select the order of the power series. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of the estimators. The key assumptions, overlap and unconfoundedness, are systematically assessed and validated in the application. Our empirical results suggest statistically significant positive effects of debit cards on the monthly household spending in Italy.

Variabilidad genética de poblaciones de Melampsora spp. agente causal de la roya del álamo, en la zona del Delta Inferior del río Paraná

En la zona del Delta del Paraná, Argentina, el cultivo de álamo constituye el principal recurso productivo y económico. La roya del álamo, producida por especies de Melampsora spp., es la enfermedad fúngica de mayor importancia económica por su carácter epidemiológico. El cultivo de un limitado número de clones, altamente especializados y ecológicamente inestables, provocan la evolución de distintos patosistemas generando el reemplazo de ciertos clones por otros más resistentes. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estudiar la variabilidad genética molecular de la especie Melampsora, sobre 32 aislamientos de ejemplares pertenecientes a clones de Populus spp. durante los años 2007, 2008 y 2009, utilizando las técnicas de AFLPs y SSRs. La utilización de AFLPs permitió diferenciar 32 fenotipos moleculares, mostrando variabilidad genética en la población, mientras que a partir de la utilización de SSRs se confirmó la presencia de M. medusae y M. larici-populina en la zona de estudio. El análisis de agrupamientos (UPGMA) a partir de AFLPs permitió distinguir la cepa de Populus nigra del resto quedando como unidad aislada, a su vez se pudieron identificaron tres clusters de aislamientos provenientes de Populus deltoides, con tendencia a agruparse por origen genético y origen geográfico. El análisis de AMOVA confirmó las diferencias significativas para dichos agrupamientos. Los resultados del presente estudio confirman la existencia de variabilidad genética para los marcadores

Presencia de Xanthomonas campestris pv. undulosa agente causal del rayado bacteriano en cultivos de trigo bajo riego

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A versatile characterization of causal relationships

This paper introduces a framework for representing versatile temporal relationships between events and their effects. The framework is based on a simple time model which characterizes each time element as a subset of the set of real numbers and allows expression of both absolute time values and relative temporal relations. The formalism presented here formally specifies the so-called most general temporal constraint (GTC), which guarantees the common-sense assertion that “the beginning of the effect cannot precede the beginning of the cause”. It is shown that there are in fact 8 possible causal relationships which satisfy GTC, including cases where, on the one hand, effects start simultaneously with, during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and on the other hand, events end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. The causal relationships characterized in this paper are versatile enough to subsume those representatives in the literature.

Review of Aerospace Engineering Cost Modelling: The Genetic Causal Approach

The primary intention of this paper is to review the current state of the art in engineering cost modelling as applied to aerospace. This is a topic of current interest and in addressing the literature, the presented work also sets out some of the recognised definitions of cost that relate to the engineering domain. The paper does not attempt to address the higher-level financial sector but rather focuses on the costing issues directly relevant to the engineering process, primarily those of design and manufacture. This is of more contemporary interest as there is now a shift towards the analysis of the influence of cost, as defined in more engineering related terms; in an attempt to link into integrated product and process development (IPPD) within a concurrent engineering environment. Consequently, the cost definitions are reviewed in the context of the nature of cost as applicable to the engineering process stages: from bidding through to design, to manufacture, to procurement and ultimately, to operation. The linkage and integration of design and manufacture is addressed in some detail. This leads naturally to the concept of engineers influencing and controlling cost within their own domain rather than trusting this to financers who have little control over the cause of cost. In terms of influence, the engineer creates the potential for cost and in a concurrent environment this requires models that integrate cost into the decision making process.

Aircraft Cost Modelling using the Genetic Causal Technique within a Systems Engineering Approach

The paper is primarily concerned with the modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost. The aim is to establish an integrated life cycle balanced design process through a systems engineering approach to interdisciplinary analysis and control. The cost modelling is achieved using the genetic causal approach that enforces product family categorisation and the subsequent generation of causal relationships between deterministic cost components and their design source. This utilises causal parametric cost drivers and the definition of the physical architecture from the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify product families. The paper presents applications to the overall aircraft design with a particular focus on the fuselage as a subsystem of the aircraft, including fuselage panels and localised detail, as well as engine nacelles. The higher level application to aircraft requirements and functional analysis is investigated and verified relative to life cycle design issues for the relationship between acquisition cost and Direct Operational Cost (DOC), for a range of both metal and composite subsystems. Maintenance is considered in some detail as an important contributor to DOC and life cycle cost. The lower level application to aircraft physical architecture is investigated and verified for the WBS of an engine nacelle, including a sequential build stage investigation of the materials, fabrication and assembly costs. The studies are then extended by investigating the acquisition cost of aircraft fuselages, including the recurring unit cost and the non-recurring design cost of the airframe sub-system. The systems costing methodology is facilitated by the genetic causal cost modeling technique as the latter is highly generic, interdisciplinary, flexible, multilevel and recursive in nature, and can be applied at the various analysis levels required of systems engineering. Therefore, the main contribution of paper is a methodology for applying systems engineering costing, supported by the genetic causal cost modeling approach, whether at a requirements, functional or physical level.