A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Missed appointments in an adolescent outpatient clinic: descriptive analyses of consultations over 8 years.

Missed appointments represent an important medical and economical issue. Few studies on the subject are reported in the literature, particularly regarding adolescents. Our aim was to characterize missed and cancelled appointments in a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic for adolescents, to assess the effectiveness of a policy aimed at reducing missed appointments by introducing payment for those missed appointments not cancelled in advance, and to compare the rates between staff and resident physicians. A total of 32,816 consultations (representing 35 patients aged 12-20 years, 82.4% females) between 1999 and 200 were analysed. The missed appointment rate was 11.8% whilst another 10.9% were cancellations. Females cancelled more than males (11.3% vs. 8.4%, AOR 1.31, 99% CI 1.08-1.59), but there was no difference for missed appointments (11.6% vs. 12.3%, AOR 0.88, 99% CI 0.61-1.08). April and June to October (vacation months) were associated with more missed appointments. Globally mornings had higher rates of missed appointments than afternoons (13.6% vs. 11.2%, AOR 1.25, 99% CI 1.11-1.40). There was a slight difference in missed appointment rates between staff physicians and residents (10.4%; 11.8%, AOR 1.20, 99% CI 1.08-1.33). Missed appointment rates before and after the new policy on missed appointments were similar (1999-2003: 11.9%; 2004-2006: 11.6%, AOR 0.96, 99% CI 0.83-1.10). Conversely, cancellation rates increased from 8.4% (1999-2003) to 14.5% (2004-2006) (AOR 1.83, 99% CI 1.63-2.05). Attendance rates among adolescents show variations depending on vacation and school hours. Being attentive to these factors could help prevent missed appointments. Although having to pay for missed appointments does not increase attendance, it increases cancellations with the advantage that the appointment can be rescheduled.

Effects of pro-cholinergic treatment in patients suffering from spatial neglect.

Spatial neglect is a neurological condition characterized by a breakdown of spatial cognition contralateral to hemispheric damage. Deficits in spatial attention toward the contralesional side are considered to be central to this syndrome. Brain lesions typically involve right fronto-parietal cortices mediating attentional functions and subcortical connections in underlying white matter. Convergent findings from neuroimaging and behavioral studies in both animals and humans suggest that the cholinergic system might also be critically implicated in selective attention by modulating cortical function via widespread projections from the basal forebrain. Here we asked whether deficits in spatial attention associated with neglect could partly result from a cholinergic deafferentation of cortical areas subserving attentional functions, and whether such disturbances could be alleviated by pro-cholinergic therapy. We examined the effect of a single-dose transdermal nicotine treatment on spatial neglect in 10 stroke patients in a double-blind placebo-controlled protocol, using a standardized battery of neglect tests. Nicotine-induced systematic improvement on cancellation tasks and facilitated orienting to single visual targets, but had no significant effect on other tests. These results support a global effect of nicotine on attention and arousal, but no effect on other spatial mechanisms impaired in neglect.

Testing the descriptive performance of the rank-dependent utility in the domain of health profiles

Expected utility theory (EUT) has been challenged as a descriptive theoryin many contexts. The medical decision analysis context is not an exception.Several researchers have suggested that rank dependent utility theory (RDUT)may accurately describe how people evaluate alternative medical treatments.Recent research in this domain has addressed a relevant feature of RDU models-probability weighting-but to date no direct test of this theoryhas been made. This paper provides a test of the main axiomatic differencebetween EUT and RDUT when health profiles are used as outcomes of riskytreatments. Overall, EU best described the data. However, evidence on theediting and cancellation operation hypothesized in Prospect Theory andCumulative Prospect Theory was apparent in our study. we found that RDUoutperformed EU in the presentation of the risky treatment pairs in whichthe common outcome was not obvious. The influence of framing effects onthe performance of RDU and their importance as a topic for future researchis discussed.

Use of high-frequency jet ventilation for percutaneous tumor ablation.

PURPOSE: To report feasibility and potential benefits of high-frequency jet ventilation (HFJV) in tumor ablations techniques in liver, kidney, and lung lesions. METHODS: This prospective study included 51 patients (14 women, mean age 66 years) bearing 66 tumors (56 hepatic, 5 pulmonary, 5 renal tumors) with a median size of 16 ± 8.7 mm, referred for tumor ablation in an intention-to-treat fashion before preoperative anesthesiology visit. Cancellation and complications of HFJV were prospectively recorded. Anesthesia and procedure duration, as well as mean CO2 capnea, were recorded. When computed tomography guidance was used, 3D spacial coordinates of an anatomical target <2 mm in diameter on 8 slabs of 4 slices of 3.75-mm slice thickness were registered. RESULTS: HFJV was used in 41 of 51 patients. Of the ten patients who were not candidate for HFJV, two patients had contraindication to HFJV (severe COPD), three had lesions invisible under HFJV requiring deep inspiration apnea for tumor targeting, and five patients could not have HFJV because of unavailability of a trained anesthetic team. No specific complication or hypercapnia related to HFJV were observed despite a mean anesthetic duration of 2 h and ventilation performed in procubitus (n = 4) or lateral decubitus (n = 6). Measured internal target movement was 0.3 mm in x- and y-axis and below the slice thickness of 3.75 mm in the z-axis in 11 patients. CONCLUSIONS: HFJV is feasible in 80 % of patients allowing for near immobility of internal organs during liver, kidney, and lung tumor ablation.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Termination of Atrial Fibrillation by Catheter Ablation can be Successfully Predicted from Baseline ECG

Purpose Multiple organization indices (OIs) have been used to predict the outcome of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) in long-standing persistent AF (pers-AF), however with limited success. Our study aims at developing innovative OIs from baseline (BL, before ablation) ECG in order to predict the outcome of step-CA. Methods Fourteen consecutive patients (pts) (60±5 y, AF duration 21±9 m) underwent a step-CA consisting in pulmonary veins isolation, left atrial (LA) defragmentation and linear ablations, and right atrial (RA) ablations if non terminated. Chest lead V6 was placed in the back (V6b). After QRST cancellation from chest leads V1 to V6b, two OIs were computed to quantify the harmonic components of ECG atrial activity: 1) phase difference variance (PD) between the AF harmonic components as a measure of AF regularity, and 2) adaptive OI (AOI) evaluating the time evolution of the AF harmonic components. Both indices were compared to classical ones: a spectrum-based OI (SOI) and ECG AF cycle length (AFCL). Results Pers-AF was terminated into sinus rhythm or atrial tachycardia in 10/14 pts during step-CA, 8 during LA (LT), 2 during RA (RT) ablation, and 4 were non terminated (NT). The figure shows that LT was best separated from RT/NT before ablation by AOI computed on lead V1 (A) and PD from lead V6b (B) as compared to SOI and AFCL respectively. Conclusion Our results suggest that adaptive OIs computed before ablation perform better than classical OIs for separating LT from RT/NT pts. These findings are indicative of a higher baseline organization in LT pts that could be used to select candidates for the restoration of sinus rhythm by step-CA.

Spin-2 gravitational trace anomaly

The part proportional to the Euler-Poincar characteristic of the contribution of spin-2 fields to the gravitational trace anomaly is computed. It is seen to be of the same sign as all the lower-spin contributions, making anomaly cancellation impossible. Subtleties related to Weyl invariance, gauge independence, ghosts, and counting of degrees of freedom are pointed out.

Search for nonstandard Higgs boson in diphoton events at p anti-p collisions

We estimate the attainable limits on the coupling of a nonstandard Higgs boson to two photons taking into account the data collected by the Fermilab collaborations on diphoton events. We based our analysis on a general set of dimension-6 effective operators that give rise to anomalous couplings in the bosonic sector of the standard model. If the coefficients of all blind operators have the same magnitude, indirect bounds on the anomalous triple vector-boson couplings can also be inferred, provided there is no large cancellation in the Higgs-gamma-gamma coupling.

Kiinteistön luovutuksen purkautuminen

English summary: Cancellation of real estate conveyances (s. 534)

Audiosignaalin digitaalinen käsittely aktiivisessa meluntorjunnassa

Meluntorjuntaan on perinteisesti käytetty passiivisia menetelmiä. Monissa sovelluksissa melua voidaan vaimentaa myös aktiivisella meluntorjunnalla. Tässä työssä tutkitaan aktiivisen meluntorjunnan signaalinkäsittelyä sekä signaalinkäsittelyyn soveltuvia laitteistoja. Lisäksi selvitetään ANC-järjestelmien (Active Noise Control) toimintaanja signaalinkäsittelyyn vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkinnassa rajoitutaan yksikanavaisiin järjestelmiin. Esimerkkisovelluksena käytetään ulkotilan melunvaimennukseen soveltuvaa järjestelmää. Esimerkkijärjestelmään suunniteltiin signaalinkäsittelylaitteisto, jonka soveltuvuutta järjestelmän signaalinkäsittelyyn selvitettiin suorituskykymittauksin ja kokeellisin mittauksin.Lisäksi pohditaan signaalinkäsittelyn toteuttamista tutkittavassa järjestelmässä ja sovelluskohteessa.

Bandlimited Lipschitz functions

We study the space of bandlimited Lipschitz functions in one variable. In particular we provide a geometrical description of interpolating and sampling sequences for this space. We also give a description of the trace of such functions to sequences of critical density in terms of a cancellation condition.

Opetustoimen valtionosuuden laskennallisten yksikköhintojen soveltuvuus taloudellisuuden mittaamiseen ja arvioimiseen - Case toimiala, Imatran kaupungin koulutoimi

Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli arvioida, voidaanko opetusministeriön vahvistamia opetustoimen yksikköhintoja pitää taloudellisuuden mittarina. Tutkimukseni kohdistui peruskoulun ja lukion valtionosuuden oppilaskohtaisiin laskennallisiin yksikköhintoihin ja musiikkiopiston muun koulutuksen ja työväenopiston opetustuntikohtaisiin laskennallisiin yksikköhintoihin. Julkinen talous pyrkii toiminnassaan myös mahdollisimman tehokkaisiin ja taloudellisiin ratkaisuihin. Toiminnan taloudellisuuden määrittämiseen tarvitaan mittareita ja vertailutietoa analysointia varten. Tutkimuksen tavoitteisiin pyrittiin toiminta-analyyttisellä tutkimusotteella, mutta siinä on nähtävissä myös käsiteanalyyttisiä piirteitä. Opetustoimen valtion rahoituksen muuttuessa laskennalliseksi, valtionhallinto kumosi vanhoja sääntöjä, puhuttiin ´normipurusta´. Aikaisempi valtionosuus perustui toteutuneisiin kustannuksiin. Uudistuksella haluttiin korostaa kuntien itsenäisyyttä, taloudellista omavastuisuutta ja tehokkuutta palvelujen järjestämisessä. Lisäksi kustannuksissa oletettiin syntyvän säätöjä, joiden oli määrä koitua kuntien hyväksi, kun valtionosuus ei määräytynyt hyväksyttyjen menojen mukaan. Taloudellisuus merkitsee yksikkökustannusten tunnistamista ja analysointia. Kunnan taloustavoitteita on pyrittävä mittaamaan tunnusluvuilla. Niille on asetettava hyväksyttävät tavoitearvot. Tunnuslukujen arvot eivät sellaisenaan kerro, miten hyvä tai huono toiminnan tulos on. Vasta niiden vertailu ja analysointi antavat kuvan tästä. Kuntien oppilaskohtainen yksikköhinta soveltuu hyvin peruskoulun ja lukion taloudellisuuden mittariksi. Samoin opetustuntikohtainen yksikköhinta musiikkiopiston ja kansalaisopiston taloudellisuuden mittariksi. Kuntien keskinäinen kustannusvertailu ja analysointi antavat hyvän pohjan löytää kustannusten taloudellisuuden taso.

On Short Exponential Sums Involving Fourier Coefficients of Holomorphic Cusp Forms

By an exponential sum of the Fourier coefficients of a holomorphic cusp form we mean the sum which is formed by first taking the Fourier series of the said form,then cutting the beginning and the tail away and considering the remaining sum on the real axis. For simplicity’s sake, typically the coefficients are normalized. However, this isn’t so important as the normalization can be done and removed simply by using partial summation. We improve the approximate functional equation for the exponential sums of the Fourier coefficients of the holomorphic cusp forms by giving an explicit upper bound for the error term appearing in the equation. The approximate functional equation is originally due to Jutila [9] and a crucial tool for transforming sums into shorter sums. This transformation changes the point of the real axis on which the sum is to be considered. We also improve known upper bounds for the size estimates of the exponential sums. For very short sums we do not obtain any better estimates than the very easy estimate obtained by multiplying the upper bound estimate for a Fourier coefficient (they are bounded by the divisor function as Deligne [2] showed) by the number of coefficients. This estimate is extremely rough as no possible cancellation is taken into account. However, with small sums, it is unclear whether there happens any remarkable amounts of cancellation.

¿El finiquito tiene siempre valor extintivo de la relación labotral?

ENGLISH: It should be distinguished from the socalled 'balance liquidation and termination' three aspects are mixed sometimes creating confusion: The first, referred to repay outstanding accruals, which has a liquidation value, the second consisting of phrases expressing an added discontinuance of the contract value, which joined in the employment relationship with the worker to the employer, and the third, the waiver claim on the grounds that the debts were paid. The signing of cancellation of outstanding accounts or 'liquidation balance' is not the breaking of the employment relationship, but it might be well if you incorporate the unilateral will not flawed and unequivocally expressed the worker. ESPAÑOL: Se deben distinguir de la denominada"liquidación de saldo y finiquito" tres aspectos que en ocasiones aparecen mezclados creando confusión: El primero, referido a saldar devengos pendientes, lo cual tiene un valor liquidatorio; el segundo, consistente en frases añadidas que expresan un valor extintivo del contrato, el cual unía en la relación laboral al empleador con el trabajador, y el tercero, la renuncia a reclamar por considerar que se han satisfecho las deudas. La firma del documento de cancelación de cuentas pendientes o"liquidación de saldo", no supone la ruptura de la relación laboral, pero podría ser así si incorpora la voluntad unilateral no viciada y expresada inequívocamente del trabajador. CATALÀ: Cal distingir de l'anomenada 'liquidació de saldo i quitança' tres aspectes que de vegades apareixen barrejats creant confusió: El primer, referit a saldar meritacions pendents, la qual cosa té un valor liquidador, el segon, consistent en frases afegides que expressen un valor extintiu del contracte, el qual unia en la relació laboral l'ocupador amb el treballador, i el tercer, la renúncia a reclamar per considerar que s'han satisfet els deutes. La signatura del document de cancel·lació de comptes pendents o 'liquidació de saldo', no suposa la ruptura de la relació laboral, però podria ser així si incorpora la voluntat unilateral no viciada i expressada inequívocament del treballador.