904 resultados para calibration of rainfall-runoff models


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Games and related virtual environments have been a much-hyped area of the entertainment industry. The classic quote is that games are now approaching the size of Hollywood box office sales [1]. Books are now appearing that talk up the influence of games on business [2], and it is one of the key drivers of present hardware development. Some of this 3D technology is now embedded right down at the operating system level via the Windows Presentation Foundations – hit Windows/Tab on your Vista box to find out... In addition to this continued growth in the area of games, there are a number of factors that impact its development in the business community. Firstly, the average age of gamers is approaching the mid thirties. Therefore, a number of people who are in management positions in large enterprises are experienced in using 3D entertainment environments. Secondly, due to the pressure of demand for more computational power in both CPU and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), your average desktop, any decent laptop, can run a game or virtual environment. In fact, the demonstrations at the end of this paper were developed at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) on a standard Software Operating Environment, with an Intel Dual Core CPU and basic Intel graphics option. What this means is that the potential exists for the easy uptake of such technology due to 1. a broad range of workers being regularly exposed to 3D virtual environment software via games; 2. present desktop computing power now strong enough to potentially roll out a virtual environment solution across an entire enterprise. We believe such visual simulation environments can have a great impact in the area of business process modeling. Accordingly, in this article we will outline the communication capabilities of such environments, giving fantastic possibilities for business process modeling applications, where enterprises need to create, manage, and improve their business processes, and then communicate their processes to stakeholders, both process and non-process cognizant. The article then concludes with a demonstration of the work we are doing in this area at QUT.

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Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective than developing them from scratch. As process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our proposal achieves a significant reduction in query evaluation time.

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Calibration of movement tracking systems is a difficult problem faced by both animals and robots. The ability to continuously calibrate changing systems is essential for animals as they grow or are injured, and highly desirable for robot control or mapping systems due to the possibility of component wear, modification, damage and their deployment on varied robotic platforms. In this paper we use inspiration from the animal head direction tracking system to implement a self-calibrating, neurally-based robot orientation tracking system. Using real robot data we demonstrate how the system can remove tracking drift and learn to consistently track rotation over a large range of velocities. The neural tracking system provides the first steps towards a fully neural SLAM system with improved practical applicability through selftuning and adaptation.

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A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

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A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

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The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

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In general, the performance of construction projects, including their sustainability performance, does not meet optimal expectations. One aspect of this is the performance of the participants who are independent and make a significance impact on overall project outcomes. Of these participants, the client is traditionally the owner of the project, the architect or engineer is engaged as the lead designer and a contractor is selected to construct the facilities. Generally, the performance of the participants is gauged by considering three main factors, namely, time, cost and quality. As the level of satisfaction is a subjective issue, it is rarely used in the performance evaluation of construction work. Recently, various approaches to the measurement of satisfaction have been made in an attempt to determine the performance of construction project outcomes - for instance, client satisfaction, customer satisfaction, contractor satisfaction, occupant satisfaction and home buyer satisfaction. These not only identify the performance of the construction project but are also used to improve and maintain relationships. In addition, these assessments are necessary for the continuous improvement and enhanced cooperation of participants. The measurement of satisfaction levels primarily involves expectations and perceptions. An expectation can be regarded as a comparative standard of different needs, motives and beliefs, while a perception is a subjective interpretation that is influenced by moods, experiences and values. This suggests that the disparity between perceptions and expectations may possibly be used to represent different levels of satisfaction. However, this concept is rather new and in need of further investigation. This chapter examines the methods commonly practised in measuring satisfaction levels today and the advantages of promoting these methods. The results provide a preliminary review of the advantages of satisfaction measurement in the construction industry and recommendations are made concerning the most appropriate methods to use in identifying the performance of project outcomes.

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Business process model repositories capture precious knowledge about an organization or a business domain. In many cases, these repositories contain hundreds or even thousands of models and they represent several man-years of effort. Over time, process model repositories tend to accumulate duplicate fragments, as new process models are created by copying and merging fragments from other models. This calls for methods to detect duplicate fragments in process models that can be refactored as separate subprocesses in order to increase readability and maintainability. This paper presents an indexing structure to support the fast detection of clones in large process model repositories. Experiments show that the algorithm scales to repositories with hundreds of models. The experimental results also show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be found in process model repositories taken from industrial practice.

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As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process model versions, and to automatically handle change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

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Autonomous underwater gliders are robust and widely-used ocean sampling platforms that are characterized by their endurance, and are one of the best approaches to gather subsurface data at the appropriate spatial resolution to advance our knowledge of the ocean environment. Gliders generally do not employ sophisticated sensors for underwater localization, but instead dead-reckon between set waypoints. Thus, these vehicles are subject to large positional errors between prescribed and actual surfacing locations. Here, we investigate the implementation of a large-scale, regional ocean model into the trajectory design for autonomous gliders to improve their navigational accuracy. We compute the dead-reckoning error for our Slocum gliders, and compare this to the average positional error recorded from multiple deployments conducted over the past year. We then compare trajectory plans computed on-board the vehicle during recent deployments to our prediction-based trajectory plans for 140 surfacing occurrences.

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As organizations reach to higher levels of business process management maturity, they often find themselves maintaining repositories of hundreds or even thousands of process models, representing valuable knowledge about their operations. Over time, process model repositories tend to accumulate duplicate fragments (also called clones) as new process models are created or extended by copying and merging fragments from other models. This calls for methods to detect clones in process models, so that these clones can be refactored as separate subprocesses in order to improve maintainability. This paper presents an indexing structure to support the fast detection of clones in large process model repositories. The proposed index is based on a novel combination of a method for process model decomposition (specifically the Refined Process Structure Tree), with established graph canonization and string matching techniques. Experiments show that the algorithm scales to repositories with hundreds of models. The experimental results also show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be found in process model repositories taken from industrial practice.

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As order dependencies between process tasks can get complex, it is easy to make mistakes in process model design, especially behavioral ones such as deadlocks. Notions such as soundness formalize behavioral errors and tools exist that can identify such errors. However these tools do not provide assistance with the correction of the process models. Error correction can be very challenging as the intentions of the process modeler are not known and there may be many ways in which an error can be corrected. We present a novel technique for automatic error correction in process models based on simulated annealing. Via this technique a number of process model alternatives are identified that resolve one or more errors in the original model. The technique is implemented and validated on a sample of industrial process models. The tests show that at least one sound solution can be found for each input model and that the response times are short.

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As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model, and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process models and process model versions, reduce conflicts in concurrent edits and automatically handle controlled change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

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Using six kinds of lattice types (4×4 ,5×5 , and6×6 square lattices;3×3×3 cubic lattice; and2+3+4+3+2 and4+5+6+5+4 triangular lattices), three different size alphabets (HP ,HNUP , and 20 letters), and two energy functions, the designability of proteinstructures is calculated based on random samplings of structures and common biased sampling (CBS) of proteinsequence space. Then three quantities stability (average energy gap),foldability, and partnum of the structure, which are defined to elucidate the designability, are calculated. The authors find that whatever the type of lattice, alphabet size, and energy function used, there will be an emergence of highly designable (preferred) structure. For all cases considered, the local interactions reduce degeneracy and make the designability higher. The designability is sensitive to the lattice type, alphabet size, energy function, and sampling method of the sequence space. Compared with the random sampling method, both the CBS and the Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling methods make the designability higher. The correlation coefficients between the designability, stability, and foldability are mostly larger than 0.5, which demonstrate that they have strong correlation relationship. But the correlation relationship between the designability and the partnum is not so strong because the partnum is independent of the energy. The results are useful in practical use of the designability principle, such as to predict the proteintertiary structure.