Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 4.0 and JULES global land 4.0 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

Foehn jets over the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

Previously unknown foehn jets have been identified to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. These jets have major implications for the east coast of the AP, a region of rapid climatic warming and where two large sections of ice shelf have collapsed in recent years. During three foehn events across the AP, leeside warming and drying is seen in new aircraft observations and simulated well by the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at ∼1.5 km grid spacing. In case A, weak southwesterly flow and an elevated upwind inversion characterise a highly nonlinear flow regime with upwind flow blocking. In case C strong northwesterly winds characterise a relatively linear case with little upwind flow blocking. Case B resides somewhere between the two in flow regime linearity. The foehn jets – apparent in aircraft observations where available and MetUM simulations of all three cases – are mesoscale features (up to 60 km in width) originating from the mouths of leeside inlets. Through back trajectory analysis they are identified as a type of gap flow. In cases A and B the jets are distinct, being strongly accelerated relative to the background flow, and confined to low levels above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. They resemble the ‘shallow foehn’ of the Alps. Case C resembles a case of ‘deep foehn’, with the jets less distinct. The foehn jets are considerably cooler and moister relative to adjacent regions of calmer foehn air. This is due to a dampened foehn effect in the jet regions: in case A the jets have lower upwind source regions, and in the more linear case C there is less diabatic warming and precipitation along jet trajectories due to the reduced orographic uplift across the mountain passes.

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0): a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities. GA3.0 has been formulated by converging the development paths of the Met Office's weather and climate global atmospheric model components such that wherever possible, atmospheric processes are modelled or parametrized seamlessly across spatial resolutions and timescales. This unified development process will provide the Met Office and its collaborators with regular releases of a configuration that has been evaluated, and can hence be applied, over a variety of modelling régimes. We also describe Global Land 3.0 (GL3.0): a configuration of the JULES community land surface model developed for use with GA3.0.

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Microwave-assisted solid-phase peptide synthesis at 60 degrees C: alternative conditions with low enantiomerization

Several conditions have been used in the coupling reaction of stepwise SPPS at elevated temperature (SPPS-ET), but we have elected the following as our first choice: 2.5-fold molar excess of 0.04-0.08 M Boc or Fmoc-amino acid derivative, equimolar amount of DIC/HOBt (1:1)or TBTU/DIPEA(1:3), 25% DMSO/toluene, 60 degrees C, conventional heating. In this study, aimed to further examine enantiomerization under such condition and study the applicability of our protocols to microwave-SPPS, peptides containing L-Ser, L-His, L-Cys and/or L-Met were manually synthesized traditionally, at 60 degrees C using conventional heating and at 60 degrees C using microwave heating. Detailed assessment of all crude peptides (in their intact and/or fully hydrolyzed forms) revealed that, except for the microwave-assisted coupling of L-Cys, all other reactions occurred with low levels of amino acid enantiomerization (<2%). Therefore, herein we (i) provide new evidences that our protocols for SPPS at 60 degrees C using conventional heating are suitable for routine use, (ii) demonstrate their appropriateness for microwave-assisted SPPS by Boc and Fmoc chemistries, (iii) disclose advantages and limitations of the three synthetic approaches employed. Thus, this study complements our past research on SPPS-ET and suggests alternative conditions for microwave-assisted SPPS. Copyright (C) 2009 European Peptide Society and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Avaliação ultra-estrutural dos efeitos tóxicos da mitomicina C no epitélio ciliar de olhos de coelhos normais com e sem tratamento hipotensor ocular prévio

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o epitélio ciliar interno (ECI) do corpo ciliar após aplicação de mitomicina C (MMC) sob retalho escleral, em animais tratados com dois tipos de inibidores da produção do humor aquoso. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados ambos os olhos de 16 coelhos divididos em 4 grupos experimentais. Foi realizado retalho escleral em todos os olhos dos animais, mas apenas os olhos direitos (OD) receberam MMC. No grupo 1 (G1) não houve tratamento prévio. Nos grupos G2 e G4 foi administrada acetazolamida e nos grupos G3 e G4 maleato de timolol. O ECI foi examinado à microscopia eletrônica de transmissão (MET). Os olhos esquerdos formaram os grupos controle. RESULTADOS: em todos os grupos exceto no G1 OE, foram observadas: retração das células e/ou alargamento entre invaginações, mitocôndrias com rarefação, vesículas claras e corpos densos. A membrana limitante interna estava espessada, descontínua ou descolada em todos grupos exceto G1 OE e G2 OE. Foi observada liberação de material citoplasmático apenas nos grupos tratados com inibidores da produção de humor aquoso. CONCLUSÕES: 1- MMC, acetazolamida e maleato de timolol causaram alterações morfológicas no epitélio ciliar mesmo usados isoladamente. 2- A associação MMC e acetazolamida causou mais alterações do que a acetazolamida isoladamente, mas não mais do que a MMC isoladamente. 3- Nas demais associações as alterações foram semelhantes.

Estimation of the metabolic equivalent (MET) of an exercise protocol based on indirect calorimetry

Objective: This study aimed to determine the energy expenditure (EE) in terms of caloric cost and metabolic equivalents (METs) of two sessions of an exercise protocol. Methods: Fifteen subjects (51.0 ± 5.5years) performed the exercise sessions (80min), which were composed by (warming, walking and flexibility exercises; Session A) and (warming, walking and local muscular endurance exercises; Session B). Heart hate (HR) was measured during each part of the sessions. In laboratory environment, maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) and oxygen uptake in rest and exercise conditions (using mean HR obtained in classes) were measured on different days, using indirect calorimetry. Exercise METs were obtained by dividing VO2 in exercise (mL.kg-1.min-1) by VO2 in rest (mL.kg-1.min-1). The EE of the exercises was calculated by the formula: MET x Weight(kg) x Time(min)/60. The results were analyzed by ANOVA with Tuckey post hoc test (p < 0.05). Results: One MET for this group was 2.7 ± 0.1mL.kg-1.min-1. The mean METs of exercises were 4,7 ± 0,8 (warming), 5,8 ± 0,9 (walking) and 3,6 ± 0,7 (flexibility) on session A, and 4,6 ± 1,2 (warming), 5,6 ± 1,0 (walking) and 4.8 ± 1,0 (local muscular endurance exercises) on Session B. The training sessions showed similar energy cost (A: 398 ± 86.72 kcal and B: 404 ± 38.85 kcal; p > 0,05). None of activities were classified into vigorous intensity (> 7 METs). There were no differences on VO2 between walking (15,6 ± 2,8 or 15,4 ± 2,6 mL.kg-1.min-1) and local muscular endurance exercises (13,2 ± 2,9 mL.kg-1.min-1), although both were higher (p > 0.05) than flexibility exercises (10.1 ± 2.2 mL.kg-1.min-1). Conclusion: The proposed protocol achieves the physical activity needed by healthy adults to improve and maintain health, by their structure, moderate intensity, duration, frequency and caloric expenditure.

Preparação e teste de nanocatalisadores 'PTFENI'/'C' e 'PTFECO'/'C' para redução de oxigênio

Pós-graduação em Química - IQ

Co-infecção vírus da imunodeficiência humana e vírus da hepatite C (HIV/HCV): aspectos epidemiológicos, clínicos e laboratoriais de uma população atendida em um serviço de hepatopatias na cidade de Belém-Pará

A infecção pelo Vírus da imunodeficiência humana 1 (HIV -1) em associação com a do Vírus da hepatite C (HCV) representa, atualmente, uma comorbidade que pode interferir principalmente na história natural da hepatite C. Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever aspectos demográfico, clínico e laboratorial, incluindo exame histopatológico de pacientes coinfectados HIV/RCV. No período de agosto de 2004 a dezembro de 2006, 36 pacientes coinfectados, foram selecionados para o estudo. Noventa e dois por cento desses pacientes eram procedentes de Belém, com média de idade de 42 anos. Entre as principais informações demográficas da população estudada, foram identificados 72,52% solteiros, 83,5% do sexo masculino e 61,1% relataram ser heterossexuais. Entre os fatores de risco para o HCV o uso de drogas ilícitas injetáveis foi identificado em 41,7% dos casos, o uso de cocaína intranasal foi relatado por 38,9% dos pacientes, e o compartilhamento de seringas e material pessoal, em 38,9% dos casos. A história de etilismo em 77,8% e o uso de TARV foram os possíveis fatores agravantes mais frequentes para a doença hepática. Apenas um paciente apresentou sinais clínicos de insuficiência hepática crônica. Entre os testes bioquímicos hepáticos, a mediana de ALT e AST foi de 68UI/L e 61UI/L, respectivamente. Os níveis de linfócitos T CD4+ apresentaram mediana de 327 células/mm³, a carga viral do HIV com mediana de 2,53 logl0 cópias/mL (ep=0,34), carga viral do HCV com mediana de 5,9 log10UI/mL. O genótipo 1 do HCV foi o mais frequente (58,82%). Cinqüenta e sete por cento dos pacientes submetidos à biópsia hepática apresentavam fibrose de moderada a severa, e 11% não apresentaram fibrose pela classificação MET AVIR. Houve associação entre níveis de linfócitos T CD4+ e níveis de ALT e de AST (p=0,0009 e p=0,0002, respectivamente), assim como associação entre genótipo 1 do HCV e HCV-RNA maior ou igual a 6 log10 UI/mL (p=0.0039). Foi observada também associação entre HCV-RNA e HIV-RNA (p=0,039). Os pacientes apresentam estado geral bom, imunologicamente estáveis, sem sinais de descompensação hepática, mas com alterações estruturais hepáticas importantes, sendo portanto bons candidatos à terapia antiviral para o HCV. Futuros estudos, talvez de caso controle, com casuística maior são necessários para melhor entendimento da co-infecção HIV/HCV.