The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Diabatic balance model for the equatorial atmosphere

Using an asymptotic expansion, a balance model is derived for the shallow-water equations (SWE) on the equatorial beta-plane that is valid for planetary-scale equatorial dynamics and includes Kelvin waves. In contrast to many theories of tropical dynamics, neither a strict balance between diabatic heating and vertical motion nor a small Froude number is required. Instead, the expansion is based on the smallness of the ratio of meridional to zonal length scales, which can also be interpreted as a separation in time scale. The leading-order model is characterized by a semigeostrophic balance between the zonal wind and meridional pressure gradient, while the meridional wind v vanishes; the model is thus asymptotically nondivergent, and the nonzero correction to v can be found at the next order. Importantly for applications, the diagnostic balance relations are linear for winds when inferring the wind field from mass observations and the winds can be diagnosed without direct observations of diabatic heating. The accuracy of the model is investigated through a set of numerical examples. These examples show that the diagnostic balance relations can remain valid even when the dynamics do not, and the balance dynamics can capture the slow behavior of a rapidly varying solution.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Mixing-cell boundary conditions and apparent mass balance errors for advective-dispersive solute transport

In many field or laboratory situations, well-mixed reservoirs like, for instance, injection or detection wells and gas distribution or sampling chambers define boundaries of transport domains. Exchange of solutes or gases across such boundaries can occur through advective or diffusive processes. First we analyzed situations, where the inlet region consists of a well-mixed reservoir, in a systematic way by interpreting them in terms of injection type. Second, we discussed the mass balance errors that seem to appear in case of resident injections. Mixing cells (MC) can be coupled mathematically in different ways to a domain where advective-dispersive transport occurs: by assuming a continuous solute flux at the interface (flux injection, MC-FI), or by assuming a continuous resident concentration (resident injection). In the latter case, the flux leaving the mixing cell can be defined in two ways: either as the value when the interface is approached from the mixing-cell side (MC-RT -), or as the value when it is approached from the column side (MC-RT +). Solutions of these injection types with constant or-in one case-distance-dependent transport parameters were compared to each other as well as to a solution of a two-layer system, where the first layer was characterized by a large dispersion coefficient. These solutions differ mainly at small Peclet numbers. For most real situations, the model for resident injection MC-RI + is considered to be relevant. This type of injection was modeled with a constant or with an exponentially varying dispersion coefficient within the porous medium. A constant dispersion coefficient will be appropriate for gases because of the Eulerian nature of the usually dominating gaseous diffusion coefficient, whereas the asymptotically growing dispersion coefficient will be more appropriate for solutes due to the Lagrangian nature of mechanical dispersion, which evolves only with the fluid flow. Assuming a continuous resident concentration at the interface between a mixing cell and a column, as in case of the MC-RI + model, entails a flux discontinuity. This flux discontinuity arises inherently from the definition of a mixing cell: the mixing process is included in the balance equation, but does not appear in the description of the flux through the mixing cell. There, only convection appears because of the homogeneous concentration within the mixing cell. Thus, the solute flux through a mixing cell in close contact with a transport domain is generally underestimated. This leads to (apparent) mass balance errors, which are often reported for similar situations and erroneously used to judge the validity of such models. Finally, the mixing cell model MC-RI + defines a universal basis regarding the type of solute injection at a boundary. Depending on the mixing cell parameters, it represents, in its limits, flux as well as resident injections. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

(Table 1) Correlation of precipitation and winter mass balance (bw) at Storbreen, Norway

Measurements of winter balance (bw) and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that bw was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949-2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925-1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower bw than the average for 1949-2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ± 0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.

Sensitivity of a distributed temperature-radiation index melt model based on AWS observations and surface energy balance fluxes, Hurd Peninsula glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctica

We use an automatic weather station and surface mass balance dataset spanning four melt seasons collected on Hurd Peninsula Glaciers, South Shetland Islands, to investigate the point surface energy balance, to determine the absolute and relative contribution of the various energy fluxes acting on the glacier surface and to estimate the sensitivity of melt to ambient temperature changes. Long-wave incoming radiation is the main energy source for melt, while short-wave radiation is the most important flux controlling the variation of both seasonal and daily mean surface energy balance. Short-wave and long-wave radiation fluxes do, in general, balance each other, resulting in a high correspondence between daily mean net radiation flux and available melt energy flux. We calibrate a distributed melt model driven by air temperature and an expression for the incoming short-wave radiation. The model is calibrated with the data from one of the melt seasons and validated with the data of the three remaining seasons. The model results deviate at most 140 mm w.e. from the corresponding observations using the glaciological method. The model is very sensitive to changes in ambient temperature: a 0.5 ◦ C increase results in 56 % higher melt rates.

Table 2: Firn temperature, ram resistance, mass balance and submergence velo city measurements on Colle Gnifetti

Distributional patterns of glaciological parameters at the Colle Gnifetti core drilling site are described and their interrelationships are brietly discussed. Observations within a stake network established in 1980 furnish information about snow accumulation (short term balance), submergence velocity of ice tlow (long term balance), ram hardness (melt layer stratigraphy), and firn temperature. In addition, a numerical model was used to estimate local variations of available radiant energy. Melt layer formation is considerably more intensive on the south facing parts of the firn saddie where incoming radiation is high. These melt layers seem to effectively protect some of the fallen snow from wind erosion. As a result, balance ist up to one order of magnitude larger on south facing slopes. Heat applied to the surface is therefore positively correlated with balance, whereas the relation between solar radiation and firn temperature is less dear. Distributional patterns of submergence velocity confirm that the observed spatial variability of surface balance is representative for longer time periods and greatly intluences the time scale and the stratigraphy of firn and ice cores from Colle Gnifetti.

Partial-hepatectomized (70%) Model Shows A Correlation Between Hepatocyte Growth Factor Levels And Beta-cell Mass.

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Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

The quantification of the available energy in the environment is important because it determines photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and, therefore, the final yield of crops. Instruments for measuring the energy balance are costly and indirect estimation alternatives are desirable. This study assessed the Deardorff's model performance during a cycle of a sugarcane crop in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in comparison to the aerodynamic method. This mechanistic model simulates the energy fluxes (sensible, latent heat and net radiation) at three levels (atmosphere, canopy and soil) using only air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed measured at a reference level above the canopy, crop leaf area index, and some pre-calibrated parameters (canopy albedo, soil emissivity, atmospheric transmissivity and hydrological characteristics of the soil). The analysis was made for different time scales, insolation conditions and seasons (spring, summer and autumn). Analyzing all data of 15 minute intervals, the model presented good performance for net radiation simulation in different insolations and seasons. The latent heat flux in the atmosphere and the sensible heat flux in the atmosphere did not present differences in comparison to data from the aerodynamic method during the autumn. The sensible heat flux in the soil was poorly simulated by the model due to the poor performance of the soil water balance method. The Deardorff's model improved in general the flux simulations in comparison to the aerodynamic method when more insolation was available in the environment.

Dynamical generation of mass in the D = (2+1) Wess-Zumino model

In this work we study the dynamical generation of mass in the massless N = 1 Wess-Zumino model in a three-dimensional spacetime. Using the tadpole method to compute the effective potential, we observe that supersymmetry is dynamically broken together with the discrete symmetry A(x) -> A(x). We show that this model, different from nonsupersymmetric scalar models, exhibits a consistent perturbative dynamical generation of mass after two-loop corrections to the effective potential.

Assessment of the Performance of Acoustic and Mass Balance Methods for Leak Detection in Pipelines for Transporting Liquids

On-line leak detection is a main concern for the safe operation of pipelines. Acoustic and mass balance are the most important and extensively applied technologies in field problems. The objective of this work is to compare these leak detection methods with respect to a given reference situation, i.e., the same pipeline and monitoring signals acquired at the inlet and outlet ends. Experimental tests were conducted in a 749 m long laboratory pipeline transporting water as the working fluid. The instrumentation included pressure transducers and electromagnetic flowmeters. Leaks were simulated by opening solenoid valves placed at known positions and previously calibrated to produce known average leak flow rates. Results have clearly shown the limitations and advantages of each method. It is also quite clear that acoustics and mass balance technologies are, in fact, complementary. In general, an acoustic leak detection system sends out an alarm more rapidly and locates the leak more precisely, provided that the rupture of the pipeline occurs abruptly enough. On the other hand, a mass balance leak detection method is capable of quantifying the leak flow rate very accurately and of detecting progressive leaks.

Geochemical mass-balance and oxygen-isotope constrains on silcrete formation and its paleoclimatic implications in Southern Australia

Two geographically distinct silcrete associations are present in southern Australia, inland and eastern; these were sampled in central South Australia and central Victoria, respectively, At each site, both silicified and immediately adjacent unsilicified parent material were collected. Analytical data from these pairs were used to construct isocons, assuming Zr immobility, and to calculate the volume change and amount of silica introduced during silicification, These results, together with whole-rock oxygen isotope compositions, were used to determine the delta(18)O of th, introduced silica, The results show that the eastern silcretes in central Victoria are probably linked genetically to the associated basalts, weathering of which supplied the introduced silica, This conclusion is based on the close spatial connection between the two, as well as the substantial amount of introduced silica in the silcretes (greater than in the inland silcretes), resulting in volume increases in some eastern silcretes, Oxygen isotopic calculations for the silcretes indicate that the silica precipitated from groundwaters at temperatures slightly higher than present conditions. Silcrete formation apparently occurred during the Miocene and Pliocene (basalts in Victoria younger than Pliocene lack associated silcrete) and may reflect the much wetter climate in southeastern Australia at that time. The inland silcretes of central South Australia can be divided into pedogenic (the most common) and groundwater varieties. The pedogenic silcretes, which show typical soil features like columnar and nodular textures, contain moderate amounts of introduced silica that precipitated by evaporation from saline groundwaters, For the groundwater silcretes, which have massive textures and formed at or close to the water table, insufficient data are available to determine the mode of formation. The inland pedogenic silcretes have probably been farming from the Eocene-Miocene to the present, implying that conditions of seasonally high evaporation have occurred in central Australia during this time period. Thus silcrete formation depends on a complex interplay between climate and silica supply, and it is impossible to generalize that the presence of silcrete is indicative of a particular climate. Likewise, the elemental composition of silcretes, particularly Ti content, is not necessarily of climatic significance, Nevertheless, detailed geochemical and oxygen isotopic studies of a silcrete and its parent material can elucidate the mechanisms of silcrete formation, and if evaporation is indicated as a major factor in silcrete formation, then the climate at the time was likely to have been at least seasonally arid.

Population balance model of in vivo neutrophil formation following bone marrow rescue therapy

In this paper, we develop a simple four parameter population balance model of in vivo neutrophil formation following bone marrow rescue therapy. The model is used to predict the number and type of neutrophil progenitors required to abrogate the period of severe neutropenia that normally follows a bone marrow transplant. The estimated total number of 5 billion neutrophil progenitors is consistent with the value extrapolated from a human trial. The model provides a basis for designing ex vivo expansion protocols.

Commentary: Using the convection-dispersion model and transit time density functions in the analysis of organ distribution kinetics

The convection-dispersion model and its extended form have been used to describe solute disposition in organs and to predict hepatic availabilities. A range of empirical transit-time density functions has also been used for a similar purpose. The use of the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions and transit-time density functions has been queried recently by Hisaka and Sugiyanaa in this journal. We suggest that, consistent with soil science and chemical engineering literature, the mixed boundary conditions are appropriate providing concentrations are defined in terms of flux to ensure continuity at the boundaries and mass balance. It is suggested that the use of the inverse Gaussian or other functions as empirical transit-time densities is independent of any boundary condition consideration. The mixed boundary condition solutions of the convection-dispersion model are the easiest to use when linear kinetics applies. In contrast, the closed conditions are easier to apply in a numerical analysis of nonlinear disposition of solutes in organs. We therefore argue that the use of hepatic elimination models should be based on pragmatic considerations, giving emphasis to using the simplest or easiest solution that will give a sufficiently accurate prediction of hepatic pharmacokinetics for a particular application. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 89:1579-1586, 2000.

Cell cycle model to describe animal cell size variation and lag between cell number and biomass dynamics

The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.