Finite differences and a coupled analytic technique with applications to explosions and earthquakes

An analytic technique is developed that couples to finite difference calculations to extend the results to arbitrary distance. Finite differences and the analytic result, a boundary integral called two-dimensional Kirchhoff, are applied to simple models and three seismological problems dealing with data. The simple models include a thorough investigation of the seismologic effects of a deep continental basin. The first problem is explosions at Yucca Flat, in the Nevada test site. By modeling both near-field strong-motion records and teleseismic P-waves simultaneously, it is shown that scattered surface waves are responsible for teleseismic complexity. The second problem deals with explosions at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The near-field seismograms are investigated using a variety of complex structures and sources. The third problem involves regional seismograms of Imperial Valley, California earthquakes recorded at Pasadena, California. The data are shown to contain evidence of deterministic structure, but lack of more direct measurements of the structure and possible three-dimensional effects make two-dimensional modeling of these data difficult.

Analytic expression of the diffraction of a circular aperture

Recurring to the characteristic of Bessel function, we give the analytic expression or the Fresnel diffraction by a circular aperture, thus the diffractions on the propagation axis and along the boundary of the geometrical shadow are discussed conveniently. Since it is difficult to embody intuitively the physical meaning from this series expression of the Fresnel diffraction, after weighing the diffractions on the axis and along the boundary of the geometrical shadow, we propose a simple approximate expression of the circular diffraction, which is equivalent to the rigorous solution in the further propagation distance. It is important for the measurement of the parameter or the beam, such as the quantitative analysis of the relationship of the wave error and the divergence of the beam, In this paper, the relationship of the fluctuation of the transverse diffraction profile and the position of the axial point is discussed too. (c) 2005 Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Energy inequalities and error estimates for axisymmetric torsion of thin elastic shells of revolution

The problem motivating this investigation is that of pure axisymmetric torsion of an elastic shell of revolution. The analysis is carried out within the framework of the three-dimensional linear theory of elastic equilibrium for homogeneous, isotropic solids. The objective is the rigorous estimation of errors involved in the use of approximations based on thin shell theory.

The underlying boundary value problem is one of Neumann type for a second order elliptic operator. A systematic procedure for constructing pointwise estimates for the solution and its first derivatives is given for a general class of second-order elliptic boundary-value problems which includes the torsion problem as a special case.

The method used here rests on the construction of “energy inequalities” and on the subsequent deduction of pointwise estimates from the energy inequalities. This method removes certain drawbacks characteristic of pointwise estimates derived in some investigations of related areas.

Special interest is directed towards thin shells of constant thickness. The method enables us to estimate the error involved in a stress analysis in which the exact solution is replaced by an approximate one, and thus provides us with a means of assessing the quality of approximate solutions for axisymmetric torsion of thin shells.

Finally, the results of the present study are applied to the stress analysis of a circular cylindrical shell, and the quality of stress estimates derived here and those from a previous related publication are discussed.

Solar flare particle propagation--comparison of a new analytic solution with spacecraft measurements

A new analytic solution has been obtained to the complete Fokker-Planck equation for solar flare particle propagation including the effects of convection, energy-change, corotation, and diffusion with ĸ_r = constant and ĸ_Ɵ ∝ r². It is assumed that the particles are injected impulsively at a single point in space, and that a boundary exists beyond which the particles are free to escape. Several solar flare particle events have been observed with the Caltech Solar and Galactic Cosmic Ray Experiment aboard OGO-6. Detailed comparisons of the predictions of the new solution with these observations of 1-70 MeV protons show that the model adequately describes both the rise and decay times, indicating that ĸ_r = constant is a better description of conditions inside 1 AU than is ĸ_r ∝ r. With an outer boundary at 2.7 AU, a solar wind velocity of 400 km/sec, and a radial diffusion coefficient ĸ_r ≈ 2-8 x 10²⁰ cm²/sec, the model gives reasonable fits to the time-profile of 1-10 MeV protons from "classical" flare-associated events. It is not necessary to invoke a scatter-free region near the sun in order to reproduce the fast rise times observed for directly-connected events. The new solution also yields a time-evolution for the vector anisotropy which agrees well with previously reported observations.

In addition, the new solution predicts that, during the decay phase, a typical convex spectral feature initially at energy T_o will move to lower energies at an exponential rate given by T_KINK = T_oexp(-t/Ƭ_KINK). Assuming adiabatic deceleration and a boundary at 2.7 AU, the solution yields Ƭ_KINK ≈ 100h, which is faster than the measured ~200h time constant and slower than the adiabatic rate of ~78h at 1 AU. Two possible explanations are that the boundary is at ~5 AU or that some other energy-change process is operative.

Comparison between complex amplitude envelope representation and complex analytic signal representation in studying pulsed Gaussian beam

Analytic propagation expressions of pulsed Gaussian beam are deduced by using complex amplitude envelope representation and complex analytic signal representation. Numerical calculations are given to illustrate the differences between them. The results show that the major difference between them is that there exists singularity in the beam obtained by using complex amplitude envelope representation. It is also found that singularity presents near propagation axis in the case of broadband and locates far from propagation axis in the case of narrowband. The critical condition to determine what representation should be adopted in studying pulsed Gaussian beam is also given. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.