Análise multivariada no monitoramento do processo de produção de óleo diesel numa refinaria de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Análise econômica e energética de sistemas de produção do maracujá amarelo na região de Marília-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Rentabilidade e risco da produção de milho safrinha geneticamente modificado na região de Guaíra-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

A emergência da agrindústria de processamento de frutas no Nordeste paraense, região metropolitana de Belém e no Marajó: uma análise do potencial da capacidade produtiva e inovativa sob a ótica de Arranjo e Sistema Produtivo Inovativo Local – ASPL

O Arranjo Produtivo Local (APL) de Processamento de Frutas do Nordeste paraense, Região Metropolitana de Belém e ilha do Marajó, na Amazônia Oriental Brasileira, se destina ao atendimento dos mercados local, regional e nacional. O APL oferta produtos a partir de frutas regionais e exóticas. A base rural agrícola apresenta capacidade produtiva crescente constituída por agricultores familiares. Esses agricultores têm, relativamente, reorientado suas produções para diversificação e complexificação, onde a fruticultura tem destaque nesse processo. O APL se diferencia tanto das estruturas informais (micro-escala) de processamento do fruto açaí (mercado local), quanto das indústrias de larga escala voltadas às exportações. O APL apresenta taxas de crescimento elevadas, porém, com potencial de rentabilidade limitado por condições estruturais. Por um lado, essas limitações refletem o baixo nível da capacidade de governança e de cooperação entre as empresas. De outro, são o resultado de uma baixa capacidade de interação do conjunto de empresas do APL com o ambiente institucional. Assim, há dificuldades para consolidar e elevar a capacidade produtiva e inovativa das empresas.

Boas práticas agrícolas: análise de viabilidade financeira em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas do Nordeste Mato-Grossense

Segundo dados do PRODES/INPE (2008), de 1988 a 2008, 369.154 km² foram desmatados na Amazônia Legal, uma média anual de 17.578 km². Este processo tem sido impulsionado, principalmente, pela expansão da pecuária e da agricultura. Diversas políticas tem sido criadas para reduzir desmatamento. Sendo estas orientadas, geralmente, por instrumentos de comando e controle. Uma recente inovação, entretanto, tem sido a busca de melhoria da qualidade ambiental em médias e grandes propriedades através da introdução de Boas Práticas Agropecuárias (BPA). Baseado nisso, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se a introdução de BPA em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas de médio e grande porte do nordeste mato-grossense representa uma alternativa viável financeiramente. A pesquisa foi realizada em cinco municípios localizados ao nordeste do estado do Mato Grosso, na bacia do rio Xingu: Água Boa, Canarana, Querência, Bom Jesus do Araguaia e São Félix do Araguaia. Primeiramente, foram levantados dados detalhados das características das atividades na região de estudo, para isso foram entrevistados 40 fazendeiros (20 de pecuária e 20 de soja). A segunda etapa levantou os dados de custo de adoção de boas práticas em 14 propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas pertencentes ao Cadastro de Compromisso Sócio-Ambiental (CCS) da Aliança da Terra (AT)/ Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM). Para análise de viabilidade financeira das Boas Práticas, utilizou-se de três instrumentais: a rentabilidade simples, o valor presente líquido (VPL) e a taxa interna de retorno. Os resultados mostraram que as BPA são passíveis de implementação, mas há uma perda financeira para o produtor quando opta por adotar BPA. No entanto, possibilidades de ganhos com adoção de BPA (como o recebimento por REDD, aumento de produtividade, aumento do preço de venda, dentre outros) podem reduzir estas “perdas” e até igualar os ganhos à produção sem BPA.

Análise econômica do plantio e condução do eucalipto de curta rotação para fins energéticos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Utilização do método AHP para análise de alterações de projetos, em instalações hospitalares

Customer focus , high competitiveness and striving for excellence in quality of service are some of the main features of the current market . Planned and make decisions with greater certainty is no longer an option a few years . The current managers are seeking ways to eliminate waste and increase financial and productive profitability of your company in order to achieve higher performance at a lower cost . The AHP is one of the main concepts of this goal by providing an analysis on multiple criteria , enhancing decision-making and enhancing the gains , with a technique that is designed to take into account all the key criteria for choosing an alternative , according to the perspective of the designer as both suppliers and customers . Emerging as a new way to minimize errors , and make an informed and consistent decision. The use of this method in construction projects is a recent phenomenon , which has much to be explored , an intense analysis of the processes is required to enable it to consider the concepts and present a consistent and grounded proposal

Definição de um modelo de análise de sucesso das empresas baseado em índices contábeis e na análise multivariada

The objective of this paper is to relate the set of financial ratios that are directly related to the success of public traded companies using a methodological approach and the method of multivariate principal component analysis. This study consists in the use of profitability ratios, debt and liquidity, to define the relationship between financial ratios with the best public traded companies listed in the magazine Exame Melhores e Maiores of 2013. Multivariate analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, making linear combinations of the original variables (financial ratios) and express the data in principal components that result in new variables that contains much of the original data. As a result, we got the optimal number of five principal components, and both represent 95.6% of the original data. Among of all financial ratios, we can highlight the direct relationship between profitability ratios for the first principal component, and the direct relationship between the liquidity ratios, both inversely related with non-capital participation rates and degree indebtedness to the second principal component

Análise econômica da produção de soja rr2 pro e soja rr1: estudo de caso no Estado de Mato Grosso

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Banco do Vaticano: uma análise econômico-financeira

This thesis work aims to bring a better viewing on an atypical case of financial analysis. The lstituto per le Opere di Religione (IOR), commonly known as the Vatican Bank, has peculiarities according to its goals as a bank. Belonging to a Catholic religious congregation, IOR has been used to manage the resources of the church, and ensure that these resources are used for the operation of it and, also for religious works. However the financial transactions made by the bank remained secret throughout its existence until mid 2012. This feature of not providing relevant information at the local and international community brought harm. Several cases of corruption and money laundering came up, bringing scandals that cause bad looks for the religious entity. In order to interact with the international community and understanding the importance of it, the Roman Apostolic Catholic Church decides to joing the international accounting procedures (IFRS) and went on to provide yearly financial statement reports and other information from its bank from 2012 . Thus, this thesis work takes on the role of analyzing the financial statements of the IOR and present its economic and financial health from the Capital Structure ratios, liquidity and profitability in the period 2012-2014. Overall, there has been a significant reduction in indebtedness 548% in 2012 to 362% in 2014. However, such an index showing is still high. In addition, the debt profile remained bad (87.47% short-term in 2014). The Liquidity ratios, both indices fell during the analysed period. Noteworthy is that even with retractions, the indices are equal or greater than 1, which indicates financial footing able to pay off debts. Regarding profitability, in 2013 it represented atypical moment, considering the economic performance of the IOR in the investigated period. There was decrease in profits this year, which resulted in great loss of the indicators in 2013. For the previous and subsequent...

Eficiência bancária no Brasil: uma análise envoltória de dados (DEA)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.

Análise multivariada de características reprodutivas e produtivas de vacas da raça Holandesa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise multivariada de características reprodutivas e produtivas de vacas da raça Holandesa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)