A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Salud y crecimiento económico: un modelo de generaciones traslapadas, expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano

Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo de generaciones traslapadas con expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano. Recoge parte de la evidencia empírica acerca de la transición demográfica explicada por Notestein en 1945, donde variaciones en la longevidad de los individuos afectan positivamente el crecimiento económico de un país. El modelo establece que la falta de incentivos para invertir en salud estanca a una economía en una trampa de pobreza y muestra que incrementos en la productividad en el sector de producción de capital humano, al igual que cambios tecnológicos sesgados al uso intensivo del mismo, incrementan el producto de estado estacionario y pueden sacar a una economía de una trampa de pobreza.

Indirect population dynamic benefits of altered life-history trade-offs in response to egg harvesting

Variations in demographic rates due to differential resource allocation between individuals are important considerations in the development of accurate population dynamic models. Systematic harvesting can alter age structure and/or reduce population density, conferring indirect positive benefits on the source population as a result of a consequent redistribution of resources between the remaining individuals. Independently of effects mediated through changes in density and competition, demographic rates can also be influenced by within-individual competition for resources. Harvesting dependent life stages can reduce an individual's current reproductive costs, allowing increased investment in its future fecundity and survival. Although such changes in demographic rates are well known, there has been little exploration of the potential impact on population dynamics. We use empirical data collected from a successfully reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus to explore the population consequences of manipulating reproductive effort through harvesting. Consequent increases in an individual's future fecundity and survival allow source populations to withstand longer and more intensive harvesting regimes without being exposed to an increase in extinction risk, increasing maximum sustainable yields. These effects may also buffer populations against the impacts of stochastic events, but directional shifts in environmental conditions that increase reproductive costs may have detrimental population-level effects.

Emerging health issues: the widening challenge for population health promotion

The spectrum of tasks for health promotion has widened since the Ottawa Charter was signed. In 1986, infectious diseases still seemed in retreat, the potential extent of HIV/AIDS was unrecognized, the Green Revolution was at its height and global poverty appeared less intractable. Global climate change had not yet emerged as a major threat to development and health. Most economists forecast continuous improvement, and chronic diseases were broadly anticipated as the next major health issue. Today, although many broadly averaged measures of population health have improved, many of the determinants of global health have faltered. Many infectious diseases have emerged; others have unexpectedly reappeared. Reasons include urban crowding, environmental changes, altered sexual relations, intensified food production and increased mobility and trade. Foremost, however, is the persistence of poverty and the exacerbation of regional and global inequality. Life expectancy has unexpectedly declined in several countries. Rather than being a faint echo from an earlier time of hardship, these declines could signify the future. Relatedly, the demographic and epidemiological   transitions have faltered. In some regions, declining fertility has overshot that needed for optimal age structure, whereas elsewhere mortality increases have reduced population growth rates, despite continuing high fertility. Few, if any, Millennium Development Goals (MDG), including those for health and sustainability, seem achievable. Policy-makers generally misunderstand the link between environmental sustainability (MDG #7) and health. Many health workers also fail to realize that social cohesion and sustainability—maintenance of the Earth’s ecological and geophysical systems—is a necessary basis for health. In sum, these issues present an enormous challenge to health. Health promotion must address population health influences that transcend national boundaries and generations and engage with the development, human rights and environmental movements. The big task is to promote sustainable environmental and social conditions that bring enduring and equitable health gains.

Cross-national compartability of burden of disease estimates:the European disability weights project

Objective: To investigate the sources of cross-national variation in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the European Disability
Weights Project.

Methods: Disability weights for 15 disease stages were derived empirically in five countries by means of a standardized procedure and the cross-national differences in visual analogue scale (VAS) scores were analysed. For each country the burden of dementia in women, used as an illustrative example, was estimated in DALYs. An analysis was performed of the relative effects of cross-national variations in demography, epidemiology and disability weights on DALY estimates.

Findings: Cross-national comparison of VAS scores showed almost identical ranking orders. After standardization for population size and age structure of the populations, the DALY rates per 100 000 women ranged from 1050 in France to 1404 in the Netherlands. Because of uncertainties in the epidemiological data, the extent to which these differences reflected true variation between countries was difficult to estimate. The use of European rather than country-specific disability weights did not lead to a significant change in the burden of disease estimates for dementia.

Conclusions: Sound epidemiological data are the first requirement for burden of disease estimation and relevant between-countries comparisons. DALY estimates for dementia were relatively insensitive to differences in disability weights between European countries.

Historical dynamics of the fur seal population : evidence of regulation by man?

The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) was severely over-exploited in the 18th and 19th centuries and until relatively recently its population had remained steady at well below estimated presealing levels. However, the population is now increasing rapidly (6%–20% per annum) throughout its range and there is a need to understand its dynamics in order to assess the potential extent and impact of interactions with fisheries. Age distribution (n = 156) and pregnancy rate (n = 110) were determined for adult females collected at a breeding colony on Seal Rocks, southeast Australia, in 1971–1972. Mean ± SE and maximum observed ages were 9.37 ± 0.41 and 20 years (n = 1), respectively. A stochastic modelling approach was used to fit an age distribution to the observed age-structure data and calculate rates of recruitment and adult survival. Annual adult female survival and recruitment rates between 1954 and 1971 were 0.478 ± 0.029 (mean ± SE) and 0.121 ± 0.007, respectively, suggesting that the population was experiencing a decline during the 1960s. The pregnancy rate increased from 78% at 3 years of age to an average of 85% between 4–13 years of age before significantly decreasing in older females (the oldest was 19 years of age). There was no significant effect of body mass or condition on the probability of a female being pregnant (P > 0.5 in both cases) and the nutritional burden of lactation did not appear to affect pregnancy rates or gestational performance. These findings suggest that the low survivorship was due to density-independent effects such as mortality resulting from interactions with fishers, which are known to have been common at the time. The recent increase in the population is consistent with anecdotal evidence that such interactions have decreased as fishing practices have changed.

The New Zealand gaming and betting survey : Chinese and Indian people's experience

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse attitudes, understanding of gambling and gambling related harm among Asians in New Zealand using secondary data from the New Zealand 2006/07 Gaming and Betting Attitudes Survey (GBAS).

Design/methodology/approach – This survey interviewed 1,973 nationwide randomly selected youths and adults (=18 years) using structured questionnaire. Chinese (N=113) and Indian (N=122) data were analysed separately to compare between them and with NZ Europeans (N=792). Descriptive analysis was carried out and was subsequently tested for significant correlations by weighted (p<0.01) and un-weighted (p<0.05) variables.

Findings – A higher proportion of Chinese males (66.8 percent) represented in the survey compared to Indian (43.0 percent) and NZ European (48.9 percent) where Chinese consisted of more youthful age structure. Chinese respondents were more likely to be in the lowest income bracket (NZ$10,000) compared to others. Among the ten gambling activities “casino table gambling” and “casino electronic machines” (slot-style machine) were most popular among the Chinese where Indians preferred “gambling/casino evening”. A significant proportion of Chinese were unwilling to refer family or friends to gambling help services despite believing that gambling does more harm than good. Pre-committed gambling sum was the most common harm minimising strategy suggested by participants. They believed education and consultation could deter youths from harmful gambling.

Research limitations/implications – This survey highlighted gambling behaviours and thoughts of the ethnic minority population in New Zealand. Study outcomes would be valuable in formulating ethnic specific preventative programme and may have policy implication.

Originality/value – There has been limited research on gambling behaviour of ethnic minorities in New Zealand. This paper fills some of the gaps.

Population biology of swift (Apus apus) ectoparasites in relation to host reproductive success

1We censused ectoparasite populations of adult and nestling swifts over the course of the host's breeding season. Nearly all of the birds were infested with chewing lice and two-thirds of the nests were infested with louse flies. Feather mites were observed but not quantified.2Lice and louse flies both showed aggregated distributions among hosts. Louse eggs, hatched lice and adult louse flies had negative binomial distributions, whereas the aggregated distribution of louse fly pupae was not adequately described by negative binomial or Poisson models.3Transmission of lice from parents to offspring was documented. A comparison of the age structure of lice on parents and offspring indicated that most transmission was by nymphal lice.4Host reproductive success and survival appeared to be independent of the number of lice or louse flies. Neither parasite correlated with the number, body mass, or date of fledging of young birds, nor with the overwinter survival of adults. We caution, however, that experimental manipulations of parasite load are required for a definitive test of the impact of ectoparasites on evolutionary fitness components.

Quantitative comparisons and models of time-averaging in bivalve and brachiopod shell accumulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Marking with pigments for identification of flies in experimental populations of Megaselia scalaris Loew

A técnica de marcação de insetos de Tadei & Mourão (1976) é, até o momento, o único método experimental que possibilita determinar a idade real de cada indivíduo na população e, conseqüentemente, determinar a estrutura etária da mesma. Para isto propomos um aprimoramento dessa técnica, utilizada aqui para determinar a estrutura etária de populações da linhagem geográfica SR do díptero forídeo Megaselia scalaris Loew, mantidas pela técnica da transferência seriada em câmaras com temperatura constante de 25 ± 1,0ºC e 20 ± 1,0ºC. O estabelecimento da estrutura etária permitiu calcular a longevidade real das moscas e detectar o efeito ambiental temperatura, sendo fator determinante neste trabalho a marcação dos insetos, pois se não o fosse, teríamos somente estimativas e, dependendo do erro cometido na estimação, o efeito do fator de interesse (temperatura) poderia não ser detectado.

TAXONOMY, ONTOGENY and PALEOECOLOGY of TWO SPECIES of HARBINIA TSAO, 1959 (CRUSTACEA, OSTRACODA) FROM THE SANTANA FORMATION, LOWER CRETACEOUS, NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A saúde bucal do idoso brasileiro: revisão sistemática sobre o quadro epidemiológico e acesso aos serviços de saúde bucal

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo populacional de gambás, Didelphis albiventris (Mammalia, Didelphidae), em um pequeno fragmento florestal

Population study of white-eared-opossum, Didelphis albiventris (Mammalia, Didelphidae), in a small forest fragment. The white-eared-opossums are habitat generalist animals and occur in high abundance in forest fragments. Therefore these animals are important to understand the dynamics of this landscape. The population of Didelphis albiventris in a 7 ha stational semidecidual forest fragment and its agricultural surroundings was studied during one year. The population abundance, age structure and sex ratio were estimated monthly. Two movements between the fragment and the surrounding area were detected. The population dynamics showed an annual pattern with a high peak during the dry season.

Social Panorama of Latin America 2006

Includes bibliography