Análise de um regulador de velocidade digital para a Usina Hidroelétrica de Curuá-Una

Analisa uma proposta de um controlador digital para o regulador de velocidade da Usina Hidroelétrica de Curuá-Una, utilizando duas estratégias de projeto, a estratégia indireta com o projeto do controlador sendo feito no plano contínuo e depois discretizado e a estratégia direta, em que o controlador é projetado inteiramente no plano discreto. O conhecimento gerado no simulador é de grande importância, pois é uma das grandes ferramentas para avaliar o comportamento dos controladores digitais propostos, em ambiente seguro. O estudo dos controladores também permite uma substituição de equipamentos antigos, com produção descontinuada, por equipamentos novos que permitem a confecção de controladores modernos, digitais e inteligentes, que proporcionam uma substituição de técnicas antigas de controle por estratégias avançadas de controle, maximizando o rendimento do sistema em condições adversas de operação. O trabalho levanta as diferenças, vantagens e desvantagens de cada controlador, com o objetivo de auxiliar na escolha do controlador mais adequado para projetos de controladores avançados: tipo um controle adaptativo, controle fuzzy ou controle neural. As dificuldades de projeto e os resultados das simulações foram os principais indicadores na avaliações dos dois RV digitais projetados. De uma forma geral o RV digital direto apresentou melhor desempenho, estabilidade e menor esforço computacional, entretanto, o RV digital indireto mostrou desempenho similar, menor degradação devido às não linearidades e ao menor esforço de projeto.

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Algoritmos genéticos en control activo de ruido

Este proyecto se centra en la implementación de un sistema de control activo de ruido mediante algoritmos genéticos. Para ello, se ha tenido en cuenta el tipo de ruido que se quiere cancelar y el diseño del controlador, parte fundamental del sistema de control. El control activo de ruido sólo es eficaz a bajas frecuencias, hasta los 250 Hz, justo para las cuales los elementos pasivos pierden efectividad, y en zonas o recintos de pequeñas dimensiones y conductos. El controlador ha de ser capaz de seguir todas las posibles variaciones del campo acústico que puedan producirse (variaciones de fase, de frecuencia, de amplitud, de funciones de transferencia electro-acústicas, etc.). Su funcionamiento está basado en algoritmos FIR e IIR adaptativos. La elección de un tipo de filtro u otro depende de características tales como linealidad, causalidad y número de coeficientes. Para que la función de transferencia del controlador siga las variaciones que surgen en el entorno acústico de cancelación, tiene que ir variando el valor de los coeficientes del filtro mediante un algoritmo adaptativo. En este proyecto se emplea como algoritmo adaptativo un algoritmo genético, basado en la selección biológica, es decir, simulando el comportamiento evolutivo de los sistemas biológicos. Las simulaciones se han realizado con dos tipos de señales: ruido de carácter aleatorio (banda ancha) y ruido periódico (banda estrecha). En la parte final del proyecto se muestran los resultados obtenidos y las conclusiones al respecto. Summary. This project is focused on the implementation of an active noise control system using genetic algorithms. For that, it has been taken into account the noise type wanted to be canceled and the controller design, a key part of the control system. The active noise control is only effective at low frequencies, up to 250 Hz, for which the passive elements lose effectiveness, and in small areas or enclosures and ducts. The controller must be able to follow all the possible variations of the acoustic field that might be produced (phase, frequency, amplitude, electro-acoustic transfer functions, etc.). It is based on adaptive FIR and IIR algorithms. The choice of a kind of filter or another depends on characteristics like linearity, causality and number of coefficients. Moreover, the transfer function of the controller has to be changing filter coefficients value thought an adaptive algorithm. In this project a genetic algorithm is used as adaptive algorithm, based on biological selection, simulating the evolutionary behavior of biological systems. The simulations have been implemented with two signal types: random noise (broadband) and periodic noise (narrowband). In the final part of the project the results and conclusions are shown.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

Towards a Virtual-Acoustic String Instrument

In acoustic instruments, the controller and the sound producing system often are one and the same object. If virtualacoustic instruments are to be designed to not only simulate the vibrational behaviour of a real-world counterpart but also to inherit much of its interface dynamics, it would make sense that the physical form of the controller is similar to that of the emulated instrument. The specific physical model configuration discussed here reconnects a (silent) string controller with a modal synthesis string resonator across the real and virtual domains by direct routing of excitation signals and model parameters. The excitation signals are estimated in their original force-like form via careful calibration of the sensor, making use of adaptive filtering techniques to design an appropriate inverse filter. In addition, the excitation position is estimated from sensors mounted under the legs of the bridges on either end of the prototype string controller. The proposed methodology is explained and exemplified with preliminary results obtained with a number of off-line experiments.

Stability analysis and control of multiple converter based autonomous microgrid

In this paper, the stability of an autonomous microgrid with multiple distributed generators (DG) is studied through eigenvalue analysis. It is assumed that all the DGs are connected through Voltage Source Converter (VSC) and all connected loads are passive. The VSCs are controlled by state feedback controller to achieve desired voltage and current outputs that are decided by a droop controller. The state space models of each of the converters with its associated feedback are derived. These are then connected with the state space models of the droop, network and loads to form a homogeneous model, through which the eigenvalues are evaluated. The system stability is then investigated as a function of the droop controller real and reac-tive power coefficients. These observations are then verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC. It will be shown that the simulation results closely agree with stability be-havior predicted by the eigenvalue analysis.

System identification and control of an aerobot drive system

Fast thrust changes are important for authoritive control of VTOL micro air vehicles. Fixed-pitch rotors that alter thrust by varying rotor speed require high-bandwidth control systems to provide adequate performace. We develop a feedback compensator for a brushless hobby motor driving a custom rotor suitable for UAVs. The system plant is identified using step excitation experiments. The aerodynamic operating conditions of these rotors are unusual and so experiments are performed to characterise expected load disturbances. The plant and load models lead to a proportional controller design capable of significantly decreasing rise-time and propagation of disturbances, subject to bus voltage constraints.

Modeling, stability analysis and control of microgrid

With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

Dramatic character development personas to tailor apartment designs for different residential lifestyles

This chapter reports on research work that aims to overcome some limitations of conventional community engagement for urban planning. Adaptive and human-centred design approaches that are well established in human-computer interaction (such as personas and design scenarios) as well as creative writing and dramatic character development methods (such as the Stanislavsky System and the Meisner Technique) are yet largely unexplored in the rather conservative and long-term design context of urban planning. Based on these approaches, we have been trialling a set of performance based workshop activities to gain insights into participants’ desires and requirements that may inform the future design of apartments and apartment buildings in inner city Brisbane. The focus of these workshops is to analyse the behaviour and lifestyle of apartment dwellers and generate residential personas that become boundary objects in the cross-disciplinary discussions of urban design and planning teams. Dramatisation and embodied interaction of use cases form part of the strategies we employed to engage participants and elicit community feedback.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Distributed DSTATCOMs for distribution line enhancement

Distribution feeder voltage reinforcement by multiple site reactive power compensation systems has recently been reported by many researchers. However, voltage control by multiple DSTATCOMs across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. This paper addresses these control interaction issues and proposes a control scheme that alleviates interactions among controllers. The proposed control scheme also enhances proper sharing of reactive power among DSTATCOMs. A mathematical model of a distribution system with any number of DSTATCOMs is developed to investigate the performance of the control system. This mathematical model is used to conduct eigenvalue analysis to develop the criterion for controller design. The proposed control scheme is tested in time domain on a sample radial distribution feeder installed with multiple DSTATCOMs and test results are presented.

Multiple distribution static synchronous compensators for distribution feeder voltage support

The potential of multiple distribution static synchronous compensators (DSTATCOMs) to improve the voltage profile of radial distribution networks has been reported in the literature by few authors. However, the operation of multiple DSTATCOMs across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. This study proposes a control scheme that alleviates interactions among controllers and enhances proper reactive power sharing among DSTATCOMs. A generalised mathematical model is presented to analyse the interactions among any number of DSTATCOMs in the network. The criterion for controller design is developed by conducting eigenvalue analysis on this mathematical model. The proposed control scheme is tested in time domain on a sample radial distribution feeder installed with multiple DSTATCOMs and test results are presented.

Aircraft collision avoidance using spherical visual predictive control and single point features

This paper presents practical vision-based collision avoidance for objects approximating a single point feature. Using a spherical camera model, a visual predictive control scheme guides the aircraft around the object along a conical spiral trajectory. Visibility, state and control constraints are considered explicitly in the controller design by combining image and vehicle dynamics in the process model, and solving the nonlinear optimization problem over the resulting state space. Importantly, range is not required. Instead, the principles of conical spiral motion are used to design an objective function that simultaneously guides the aircraft along the avoidance trajectory, whilst providing an indication of the appropriate point to stop the spiral behaviour. Our approach is aimed at providing a potential solution to the See and Avoid problem for unmanned aircraft and is demonstrated through a series.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.