American book prices current.

"A record of literary properties sold at auction in the United States."

The Economic and budget outlook /

Vols. for 1986-1990- have also title on cover, 1985- Annual report.

Strategic plan for information systems and technology /

Description based on: Fiscal years 1991-1995; title from cover.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Immigration in Spain: Integration with Feet of Clay?

The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of the economic crisis on the integration of the immigrant population in Spain. The Spanish case is singular because during the years of intense immigration achieved a remarkable degree of socio-cultural integration. The paper argues that such integration it has been the result of the confluence of exceptional factors rather than the result of the policy making. From a mixed methodology approach, it shows that, during the period of expansion, two factors of the immigration contribute to their coexistence with native population: finding job and access to public services. But the economic crisis, with its impact in terms of job losses and austerity policies, expose the weaknesses of the Spanish model of integration.

Estudio del modelo de las guerras civiles de Paul Collier a través de la Guerra Civil de la Antigua Yugoslavia, desde 1991 hasta 1995

Esta disertación se centra, en una primera parte en el estudio teórico del concepto de nuevas guerras, para posteriormente, en una segunda parte, exponer el modelo teórico de Paul Collier, paradigma del enfoque economicista de las nuevas guerras. Finalmente se procede a su aplicación a un caso concreto: la Guerra de Disolución de la Antigua Yugoslavia. Esto permite un estudio de los límites del modelo.

Remembering the War and Aggression: A Discourse Analysis of Japan’s State Apologies and Commemoration Speeches on August 15th 1995-2015

Memories of historical injustices affect contemporary politics from local to global level. In East Asia, questions of commemoration and historical responsibility have turned into international and domestic controversies. The main focus has been and still is in apologies conducted by Japanese prime ministers in regards to the war, aggression and colonialism during the era of Imperial Japan. Although it is granted that state apologies are not a crucial part of reconciliation, they can be analysed as a linked but separate process within the context of memory and international relations. The purpose of this study is to examine the discourses of history in Japanese prime ministers’ commemoration speeches on Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead from 1995 to 2015 in order to analyse how the Japanese government is reflecting on its past. In particular, attention is paid on what is being commemorated and how, whether it is the war and its victims or Japan’s post-war era of peace. As an apology is a reciprocal activity, responses from Japan’s most vocal former victims, South Korea and China, were also examined. Discourse analysis was used to identify and examine the different representations of the past. In addition, the apology statements of Japanese prime ministers were analysed in the Many to Many apology framework developed by Tavuchis (1991). Primary material consisted of 21 prime ministers’ speeches from the annual Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead on August 15th and from three apology statements made in 1995, 2005 and 2015. Further international context was primarily collected from newspaper articles of The New York Times and The Times throughout the examined period. It can be concluded from the findings that in the official Japanese remembrance of the past war from 1985’s annexation of Taiwan to the atomic bombings in 1945, both discourses that reinforce apology and remorse over Japan’s past aggressions and discourses that consciously avoid doing so are used. The commemoration speeches and apology statements consistently assert that Japan has acknowledged its past and expresses regret over the acts of aggression. At the same time, the speeches and statements strengthen the narrative that Japan was a victim of circumstances as well as turn the focus on post-war peace-making or on Japan’s own victimhood.

Mortality due to cardiovascular disease in women during the reproductive age (15 to 49 years), in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1991 to 1995

OBJECTIVE: To describe mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in women during the reproductive age (15 to 49 years) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1991 to 1995. METHODS: A list of all deaths and their underlying causes, coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, multiple causes of death, and estimates of the female population according to age groups were provided by the SEADE Foundation. Specific coefficients for 100 thousand women for each year as well as the medians of these coefficients related to 5 years, and the percentage of death by subgroups were calculated. RESULTS: Cerebrovascular diseases have the highest coefficients (14.24 for 100 thousand females), followed by ischemic heart disease (7.37), other heart diseases (6.39), hypertensive disease (3.03), chronic rheumatic heart disease (1.58), pulmonary vascular diseases (1.29), and active rheumatic fever (0.05). Systemic arterial hypertension, as an associated cause, occurred in 55.3% to 57.8% of all the deaths due to intracerebral hemorrhage and in 30.4% to 30.8% due to subarachnoid hemorrhage. CONCLUSION: The significance of cerebrovascular diseases, coronary artery disease, and systemic arterial hypertension as causes of mortality suggests the need to emphasize preventive actions for young women who have the potential to reproduce to avoid possible complications in future pregnancies, and premature mortality.

Perspectivas económicas y alternativas para el inversionista mexicano para los años 1991 a 1995.

Tesis (Maestría en Contaduría Pública con Especialidad en Finanzas) UANL

La evolución del concepto de la Seguridad Humana: argumentos a favor y en contra acerca de las intervenciones humanitarias. Ilustración en el caso del campo de refugiados de Srebrenica en 1995

Esta disertación busca analizar y contrastar los argumentos sobre una posible intervención en el campo de refugiados de Srebrenica en 1995 bajo el concepto de Seguridad Humana.

La incidencia del Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán en el establecimiento de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en Asia Central 1991-2012

El interés del presente estudio de caso es analizar la estrategia de securitización implementada por el Presidente de la Republica de Uzbekistán Islam Karimov sobre el Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán. Se describe y se explica cómo desde las lógicas históricas y étnicas acontecidas en Asia Central, se pueden comprender los alcances internacionales de la confrontación antagónica ejercida entre uzbekos al apoyar ideas de corte secular e islamista. Así, siguiendo los parámetros establecidos por Barry Buzan con respecto a la securitización, se puede llegar a identificar la creación de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en la región de Asia Central, cuyos logros permitieron disminuir el riesgo de la amenaza insurgente.