Weibull modulus for diverse strength due to sample-specificity

By sample specificity it is meant that specimens with the same nominal material parameters and tested under the same environmental conditions may exhibit different behavior with diversified strength. Such an effect has been widely observed in the testing of material failure and is usually attributed to the heterogeneity of material at the mesoscopic level. The degree with which mesoscopic heterogeneity affects macroscopic failure is still not clear. Recently, the problem has been examined by making use of statistical ensemble evolution of dynamical system and the mesoscopic stress re-distribution model (SRD). Sample specificity was observed for non-global mean stress field models, such as the duster mean field model, stress concentration at tip of microdamage, etc. Certain heterogeneity of microdamage could be sensitive to particular SRD leading to domino type of coalescence. Such an effect could start from the microdamage heterogeneity and then be magnified to other scale levels. This trans-scale sensitivity is the origin of sample specificity. The sample specificity leads to a failure probability Phi (N) with a transitional region 0 < (N) < 1, so that globally stable and catastrophic modes could co-exist. It is found that the scatter in strength can fit the Weibull distribution very well. Hence, the Weibull modulus is indicative of sample specificity. Numerical results obtained from the SRD for different non-global mean stress fields show that Weibull modulus increases with increasing sample span and influence region of microdamage.

Influence of threshold stress on the estimation of the Weibull statistics

The influence of threshold stress on the estimation of the Weibull statistics is discussed in terms of the Akaike information criterion. Numerical simulations show that, if sample data are limited in number and threshold stress is not too large, the two-parameter Weibull distribution is still a preferred choice. For example, the fit of strength data of glass and ceramics to the two- and three-parameter Weibull distributions is compared.

Kinetic theory for particle concentration distribution in two phase flow

The results of experiments in open channels and closed pipelines show two kinds of patterns for the vertical distribution of particle concentration (i.e., pattern I and pattern II). The former shows a pattern of maximum concentration at some location above the bottom and the downward decay of the concentration below the location. The latter always shows an increase of the particle concentration downward over the whole vertical, with the maximum value at the bottom. Many investigations were made on the pattern II, but few were made on pattern I. In this paper, a particle velocity distribution function is first obtained in the equilibrium state or in dilute steady state for the particle in two-phase flows, then a theoretical model for the particle concentration distribution is derived from the kinetic theory. More attention is paid to the predictions of the concentration distribution of pattern I and comparisons of the present model are made with the data measured by means of laser doppler anemometry (LDA). Very good agreements are obtained between the measured and calculated results.

Fumar antecipa a menopausa ? Evidências do Estudo Pró-Saúde

A menopausa é definida pelo momento em que a menstruação cessa permanentemente como conseqüência da falência ovariana. Uma vez estabelecida, há um aumento no risco de doença coronariana, doença de Alzheimer, osteoporose e fraturas e sua antecipação está relacionada a maiores índices de mortalidade. Com o envelhecimento geral da população mundial, as mulheres passaram a viver de um terço a metade de suas vidas no período pós-menopáusico e, conseqüentemente, a pesquisa de condições associadas à menopausa ganham importância. A idade da menopausa e os fatores que a influenciam variam entre os diversos estudos e poucos estudos brasileiros abordam o tema. O fumo tem sido associado à Antecipação da idade da menopausa. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as diversas dimensões de associação entre o fumo e a idade da menopausa, levando em consideração possíveis relações de dose-resposta. Com base em dados do Estudo Pró-Saúde, foi realizado um estudo seccional utilizando-se para a análise o modelo de sobrevida paramétrico de riscos proporcionais com distribuição de Weibull. Os resultados apontam para uma redução em 32% do risco de menopausa entre fumantes ativas, que a alcançam 2,5 anos mais tarde que nunca fumantes, ajustando-se para escolaridade e paridade. Entre fumantes ativas, no entanto, foram sugeridos aumentos de risco de 123% e 192% para fumantes de 10 a 20 cigarros por dia e de mais de 20 maços-ano respectivamente, quando comparadas às fumantes de menos de 10 cigarros por dia e menos de 10 maços-ano. Nesses grupos, a menopausa foi antecipada em 3,3 anos e 4,4 anos, respectivamente. Em relação ao tempo decorrido entre cessar o tabagismo e a idade menopausa, duração do fumo ou idade de início, não foram encontradas associações. Neste estudo, em possíveis efeitos de dose-resposta, o fumo apresenta-se como fator associado à antecipação da idade da menopausa em alguns aspectos, embora não em outros.

An evaluation of back-calculation methodology using simulated otolith data

I simulated somatic growth and accompanying otolith growth using an individual-based bioenergetics model in order to examine the performance of several back-calculation methods. Four shapes of otolith radius-total length relations (OR-TL) were simulated. Ten different back-calculation equations, two different regression models of radius length, and two schemes of annulus selection were examined for a total of 20 different methods to estimate size at age from simulated data sets of length and annulus measurements. The accuracy of each of the twenty methods was evaluated by comparing the back-calculated length-at-age and the true length-at-age. The best back-calculation technique was directly related to how well the OR-TL model fitted. When the OR-TL was sigmoid shaped and all annuli were used, employing a least squares linear regression coupled with a log-transformed Lee back-calculation equation (y-intercept corrected) resulted in the least error; when only the last annulus was used, employing a direct proportionality back-calculation equation resulted in the least error. When the OR-TL was linear, employing a functional regression coupled with the Lee back-calculation equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and also when only the last annulus was used. If the OR-TL was exponentially shaped, direct substitution into the fitted quadratic equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used. Finally, an asymptotically shaped OR-TL was best modeled by the individually corrected Weibull cumulative distribution function when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used.

Daily rainfall along the United States Pacific Coast appears to conform to a square-root normal probability distribution

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): As part of a study of climatic influences on landslide initiation, a statistical analysis of long-term (>40 years) records of daily rainfall from 24 Pacific coastal stations, from San Diego to Cape Flattery, disclosed an unexpected result - the square root of the daily rainfall closely approximates a normal distribution function. ... This paper illustrates the use of the square-root-normal distribution to analyze variations in precipitation along the mainland United States Pacific Coast with examples of orographic enhancement, rain shadows, and increase in precipitation frequency with geographic latitude.

Fracture Properties of LPCVD Silicon Nitride and Thermally Grown Silicon Oxide Thin Films From the Load-Deflection of Long Si3N4 and SiO2/Si3N4 Diaphragms

The bulge test is successfully extended to the determination of the fracture properties of silicon nitride and oxide thin films. This is achieved by using long diaphragms made of silicon nitride single layers and oxide/nitride bilayers, and applying comprehensive mechanical model that describes the mechanical response of the diaphragms under uniform differential pressure. The model is valid for thin films with arbitrary z-dependent plane-strain modulus and prestress, where z denotes the coordinate perpendicular to the diaphragm. It takes into account the bending rigidity and stretching stiffness of the layered materials and the compliance of the supporting edges. This enables the accurate computation of the load-deflection response and stress distribution throughout the composite diaphragm as a function of the load, in particular at the critical pressure leading to the fracture of the diaphragms. The method is applied to diaphragms made of single layers of 300-nm-thick silicon nitride deposited by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition and composite diaphragms of silicon nitride grown on top of thermal silicon oxide films produced by wet thermal oxidation at 950 degrees C and 1050 degrees C with target thicknesses of 500, 750, and 1000 mn. All films characterized have an amorphous structure. Plane-strain moduli E-ps and prestress levels sigma(0) of 304.8 +/- 12.2 GPa and 1132.3 +/- 34.4 MPa, respectively, are extracted for Si3N4, whereas E-ps = 49.1 +/- 7.4 GPa and sigma(0) = -258.6 +/- 23.1 MPa are obtained for SiO2 films. The fracture data are analyzed using the standardized form of the Weibull distribution. The Si3N4 films present relatively high values of maximum stress at fracture and Weibull moduli, i.e., sigma(max) = 7.89 +/- 0.23 GPa and m = 50.0 +/- 3.6, respectively, when compared to the thermal oxides (sigma(max) = 0.89 +/- 0.07 GPa and m = 12.1 +/- 0.5 for 507-nm-thick 950 degrees C layers). A marginal decrease of sigma(max) with thickness is observed for SiO2, with no significant differences between the films grown at 950 degrees C and 1050 degrees C. Weibull moduli of oxide thin films are found to lie between 4.5 +/- 1.2 and 19.8 +/- 4.2, depending on the oxidation temperature and film thickness.

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37A degrees 27.6' N, 122A degrees 15.1' E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (nu=0.3-0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.

Statistical distribution of nonlinear random wave height

A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results indicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.

Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/H s and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs > 12 m and Hmax > 16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs > 5.5 m or Hmax > 8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

Green function for the diffusion limit of one-dimensional continuous time random walks

It is shown how the fractional probability density diffusion equation for the diffusion limit of one-dimensional continuous time random walks may be derived from a generalized Markovian Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The non-Markovian behaviour is incorporated into the Markovian Chapman-Kolmogorov equation by postulating a Levy like distribution of waiting times as a kernel. The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation so generalised then takes on the form of a convolution integral. The dependence on the initial conditions typical of a non-Markovian process is treated by adding a time dependent term involving the survival probability to the convolution integral. In the diffusion limit these two assumptions about the past history of the process are sufficient to reproduce anomalous diffusion and relaxation behaviour of the Cole-Cole type. The Green function in the diffusion limit is calculated using the fact that the characteristic function is the Mittag-Leffler function. Fourier inversion of the characteristic function yields the Green function in terms of a Wright function. The moments of the distribution function are evaluated from the Mittag-Leffler function using the properties of characteristic functions and a relation between the powers of the second moment and higher order even moments is derived. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectroscopic measurements of phase-resolved electron energy distribution functions in RF-excited discharges

The reliable measurement of the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) of plasmas is one of the most important subjects of plasma diagnostics, because this piece of information is the key to understand basic discharge mechanisms. Specific problems arise in the case of RF-excited plasmas, since the properties of electrons are subject to changes on a nanosecond time scale and show pronounced spatial anisotropy. We report on a novel spectroscopic method for phase- and space-resolved measurements of the electron energy distribution function of energetic (> 12 eV) electrons in RF discharges. These electrons dominate excitation and ionization processes and are therefore of particular interest. The technique is based on time-dependent measurements during the RF cycle of excited-state populations of rare gases admixed in small fractions. These measurements yield � in combination with an analytical model � detailed information on the excitation processes. Phase-resolved optical emission spectroscopy allows us to overcome the difficulties connected with the very low densities (107�109 cm�3) and the transient character of the electrons in the sheath region. The EEDF of electrons accelerated in the sheath region can be described by a shifted Maxwellian with a drift velocity component in direction of the electric field. The method yields the high-energy tail of the EEDF on an absolute scale. The applicability of the method is demonstrated at a capacitively coupled RF discharge in hydrogen.