Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation

The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is under current climate conditions the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic region. While the pattern is present during the entire year, it is most important during winter, explaining a large part of the variability of the large-scale pressure field, being thus largely determinant for the weather conditions over the North Atlantic basin and over Western Europe. In this study, a review of recent literature on the basic understanding of the NAO, its variability on different time scales and driving physical mechanisms is presented. In particular, the observed NAO variations and long-term trends are put into a long term perspective by considering paleo-proxy evidence. A representative number of recently released NAO reconstructions are discussed. While the reconstructions agree reasonably well with observations during the instrumental overlapping period, there is a rather high uncertainty between the different reconstructions for the pre-instrumental period, which leads to partially incoherent results, that is, periods where the NAO reconstructions do not agree even in sign. Finally, we highlight the future need of a broader definition of the NAO, the assessment of the stability of the teleconnection centers over time, the analysis of the relations to other relevant variables like temperature and precipitation, as well as on the relevant processes involved

On the development of strong ridge episodes over the eastern North Atlantic

The occurrence of strong and persistent mid-latitude anticyclonic ridges over the Eastern North Atlantic is a major contributor to the occurrence of severe winter droughts over Western Iberia. We analyze the development of strong and persistent ridge episodes within 40–50°N; 40°W–5°E, which are defined as 300 hPa geopotential height anomalies above 50 gpm that persist for at least 10 consecutive days. Results suggest that the generation and maintenance of these episodes, with positive stratospheric geopotential anomalies over the North American continent and the adjacent North Pacific, are associated with an intensified polar jet. Such positive anomalies tend to detach from the main stratospheric anomaly and propagate eastwards and downwards as Rossby tropospheric waves. Furthermore, the Eastern North Atlantic ridge is generated and repeatedly reinforced until the stratospheric anomaly dissipates. Results also show evidence for waves breaking anticyclonically during the episodes, which is dynamically coherent with their persistency and quasi-stationarity.

Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations

Winter storms are among the most important natural hazards affecting Europe. We quantify changes in storm frequency and intensity over the North Atlantic and Europe under future climate scenarios in terms of return periods (RPs) considering uncertainties due to both sampling and methodology. RPs of North Atlantic storms' minimum central pressure (CP) and maximum vorticity (VOR) remain unchanged by 2100 for both the A1B and A2 scenarios compared to the present climate. Whereas shortened RPs for VOR of all intensities are detected for the area between British Isles/North-Sea/western Europe as early as 2040. However, the changes in storm VOR RP may be unrealistically large: a present day 50 (20) year event becomes approximately a 9 (5.5) year event in both A1B and A2 scenarios by 2100. The detected shortened RPs of storms implies a higher risk of occurrence of damaging wind events over Europe.

Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic oscillation

Intense winter cyclones often lead to hazardous weather over Europe. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong European windstorms. However, the robustness of this relation for cyclones of varying intensities remains largely unexplored. In this paper, the bi-directional relation between the NAO and cyclones impacting Europe is analyzed for the period 1950–2010 focusing on the sensitivity to storm intensity. Evidence is given that explosive (EC) and non-explosive cyclones (NoEC) predominantly develop under different large-scale circulation conditions over the North Atlantic. Whereas NoEC evolve more frequently under negative and neutral NAO phases, the number of EC is larger under a positive NAO phase, typically characterized by an intensified jet toward Western Europe. Important differences are also found on the dynamics of NAO evolution after peak intensity for both cyclone populations.

Response of the North Atlantic wave climate to atmospheric modes of variability

This study investigates the relationship between the wind wave climate and the main climate modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. The modes considered are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic Western Russian (EA/WR) pattern and the Scandinavian (SCAN) pattern. The wave dataset consists of buoys records, remote sensing altimetry observations and a numerical hindcast providing significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) for the period 1989–2009. After evaluating the reliability of the hindcast, we focus on the impact of each mode on seasonal wave parameters and on the relative importance of wind-sea and swell components. Results demonstrate that the NAO and EA patterns are the most relevant, whereas EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impact on the North Atlantic wave climate variability. During their positive phases, both NAO and EA patterns are related to winter SWH at a rate that reaches 1 m per unit index along the Scottish coast (NAO) and Iberian coast (EA) patterns. In terms of winter MWD, the two modes induce a counterclockwise shift of up to 65° per negative NAO (positive EA) unit over west European coasts. They also increase the winter MWP in the North Sea and in the Bay of Biscay (up to 1 s per unit NAO) and along the western coasts of Europe and North Africa (1 s per unit EA). The impact of winter EA pattern on all wave parameters is mostly caused through the swell wave component.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional-Scale Mean Copepod Concentration Indicates Relative Abundance of North Atlantic Right Whales

Management plans to reduce human-caused deaths of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis depend, in part, on knowing when and where right whales are likely to be found. Local environmental conditions that influence movements of feeding right whales, such as ultra-dense copepod patches, are unpredictable and ephemeral. We examined the utility of using the regional-scale mean copepod concentration as an indicator of the abundance of right whales in 2 critical habitats off the northeastern coast of the United States: Cape Cod Bay and Great South Channel. Right whales are usually found in Cape Cod Bay during the late winter and early spring, and in the Great South Channel during the late spring and early summer. We found a significant positive relationship between mean concentration of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the western Gulf of Maine and the frequency of right whale sightings in the Great South Channel. In Cape Cod Bay we found a significant positive relationship between the mean concentration of other copepods (largely Pseudocalanus spp. and Centropages spp.) and the frequency of right whale sightings. This information could be used to further our understanding of the environmental factors that drive seasonal movement and aggregation of right whales in the Gulf of Maine, and it offers a tool to resource managers and modelers who seek to predict the movements of right whales based upon the concentration of copepods.

Stable isotope record and lithic fragments distribution in sediments of MIS9-14 of the North Atlantic

Stable isotope and ice-rafted debris records from three core sites in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (IODP Site U1313, MD01-2446, MD03-2699) are combined with records of ODP Sites 1056/1058 and 980 to reconstruct hydrographic conditions during the middle Pleistocene spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9-14 (300-540 ka). Core MD03-2699 is the first high-resolution mid-Brunhes record from the North Atlantic's eastern boundary upwelling system covering the complete MIS 11c interval and MIS 13. The array of sites reflect western and eastern basin boundary current as well as north to south transect sampling of subpolar and transitional water masses and allow the reconstruction of transport pathways in the upper limb of the North Atlantic's circulation. Hydrographic conditions in the surface and deep ocean during peak interglacial MIS 9 and 11 were similar among all the sites with relative stable conditions and confirm prolonged warmth during MIS 11c also for the mid-latitudes. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions further reveal that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic MIS 11c is associated with two plateaus, the younger one of which is slightly warmer. Enhanced subsurface northward heat transport in the eastern boundary current system, especially during early MIS 11c, is denoted by the presence of tropical planktic foraminifer species and raises the question how strongly it impacted the Portuguese upwelling system. Deep water ventilation at the onset of MIS 11c significantly preceded surface water ventilation. Although MIS 13 was generally colder and more variable than the younger interglacials the surface water circulation scheme was the same. The greatest differences between the sites existed during the glacial inceptions and glacials. Then a north - south trending hydrographic front separated the nearshore and offshore waters off Portugal. While offshore waters originated from the North Atlantic Current as indicated by the similarities between the records of IODP Site U1313, ODP Site 980 and MD01-2446, nearshore waters as recorded in core MD03-2699 derived from the Azores Current and thus the subtropical gyre. Except for MIS 12, Azores Current influence seems to be related to eastern boundary system dynamics and not to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Mineralogy and geochemistry of Holocene sediments from the North Atlantic

Bulk mineralogy, Sm, Nd and Pb elemental and isotopic compositions of the clay-size fraction of Holocene sediments were analyzed in three deep North Atlantic cores to trace the particle provenance. The aims of the present paper are to identify the origin of the particles driven by deep currents and to reconstruct deep circulation changes over the Holocene in the North Atlantic. The three cores are retrieved in fracture zones; two of them are located in the Island Basin along the gyre of North Atlantic Deep Water, and the third core is located off the present deep circulation gyre in the Labrador Sea. Whereas sedimentary supplies in the Labrador Sea were constantly derived from proximal sources, the geochemical mixing trends in the Iceland Basin samples indicate pronounced changes in the relative contribution of continental margin inputs over the past 6 kyr. Supplies from western European margin that sharply increased at 6 kyr were progressively diluted by a larger contribution of Scandinavian margins over the last 3 kyr. Changes in composition of the particles imply significant reorganization of paleocirculation of the deep North Atlantic components in the eastern basins: mainly reorganizations for both Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water and Norwegian Sea Overflow Water. Moreover the unusual Pb isotopic composition of the oldest sediments from the southern Iceland Basin indicates that distal supplies from Greenland margin were driven into the Iceland Basin, supporting a deep connection between Labrador Sea and Iceland Basin through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone prior the Holocene Transition period.

Size-related stable isotope changes in Late Cretaceous and Recent planktic foraminifera from the western tropical Atlantic

The paleoecology of Cretaceous planktic foraminifera during the Late Cenomanian to Coniacian period (~95-86 Ma) remains controversial since much of the tropical marine record is preserved as chalk and limestone with uncertain geochemical overprints. Here we present delta13C and delta18O data from sieve size fractions of monospecific samples of exceptionally well preserved planktic foraminifera recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 (Demerara Rise, western tropical Atlantic). Our results suggest that all species studied (Hedbergella delrioensis, Heterohelix globulosa, Marginotruncana sinuosa, Whiteinella baltica) grew primarily in surface waters and did not change their depth habitat substantially during their life cycle. Comparison of size-related ontogenetic trends in delta13C in Cretaceous and modern foraminifera further suggests that detection of dinoflagellate photosymbiosis using delta13C is confounded by physiological effects during the early stages of foraminifer growth, raising doubts about previous interpretations of photosymbiosis in small foraminifera species. We propose that obligate photosymbiosis involving dinoflagellates may not have evolved until the Campanian or Maastrichtian since our survey of Cenomanian-Coniacian species does not find the delta18O and delta13C size-related trends observed in modern foraminifer-dinoflagellate symbioses.

Concentration and composition of aerosols over the North Atlantic in August 1995

Data on composition of aerosols are considered. Investigations include electron microscopy, grain size, mineralogical and chemical analyses. Samples of aerosols were collected Cruise 37 of R/V Akademik Mstislav Keldysh along a transatlantic section along 40°-50°N. Variability of concentrations and composition of aerosols with distance from continents is shown: concentrations of aerosols decrease by factor of ten and more. Significant portion of mineral components in aerosols collected over the continent is replaced by organic matter due to mechanical differentiation during transportation. Such anthropogenic components as soot, ash, and combustion spheres were detected in all samples. North African dust was found in one sample in the western part of the section.

Late Cretaceous benthic foraminiferal assemblages from Demerara Rise, western tropical Atlantic

This paper is based on Santonian-Campanian sediments of Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1257 (2951 mbsl) and 1259 (2353 mbsl) from Demerara Rise (Leg 207, western tropical Atlantic, off Surinam). According to its position, Demerara Rise should have been influenced by the early opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Gateway and the establishment of a bottom-water connection between the central and South Atlantic Oceans during the Late Cretaceous. The investigated benthic foraminiferal faunas demonstrate strong fluctuations in bottom-water oxygenation and organic-matter flux to the sea-floor. The Santonian-earliest Campanian interval is characterised by laminated black shales without benthic foraminifera in the lowermost part, followed by an increasing number of benthic foraminifera. These are indicative of anoxic to dysoxic bottom waters, high organic-matter fluxes and a position within the oxygen minimum zone. At the shallower Site 1259, benthic foraminifera occurred earlier (Santonian) than at the deeper Site 1257 (Early Campanian). This suggests that the shallower site was characterised by fluctuations in the oxygen minimum zone and that a re-oxygenation of the sea-floor started considerably earlier at shallower water-depths. We speculate that this re-oxygenation was related to the ongoing opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Gateway. A condensed glauconitic chalk interval of Early Campanian age (Nannofossil Zone CC18 of Sissingh) overlies the laminated shales at both sites. This interval contains benthic foraminiferal faunas reflecting increasing bottom-water oxygenation and reduced organic-matter flux. This glauconitic chalk is strongly condensed and contains most of the Lower and mid-Campanian. Benthic foraminiferal species indicative of well-oxygenated and more oligotrophic environments characterise the overlying mid- to Upper Campanian nannofossil chalk. During deposition of the nannofossil chalk, a permanent deep-water connection between the central and South Atlantic Oceans is proposed, leading to ventilated and well-oxygenated bottom waters. If this speculation is true, the establishment of a permanent deep-water connection between the central and South Atlantic Oceans terminated Oceanic Anoxic Event 3 "black shale" formation in the central and South Atlantic marginal basins during the Early Campanian (Nannofossil Zone CC18) and led to well-oxygenated bottom waters in the entire Atlantic Ocean during the Late Campanian (at least from Nannofossil Zone CC22 onwards).