Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Noise robust voice activity detection using features extracted from the time-domain autocorrelation function

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) for high noise scenarios, using a noise robust voiced speech detection feature. The developed method is based on the fusion of two systems. The first system utilises the maximum peak of the normalised time-domain autocorrelation function (MaxPeak). The second zone system uses a novel combination of cross-correlation and zero-crossing rate of the normalised autocorrelation to approximate a measure of signal pitch and periodicity (CrossCorr) that is hypothesised to be noise robust. The score outputs by the two systems are then merged using weighted sum fusion to create the proposed autocorrelation zero-crossing rate (AZR) VAD. Accuracy of AZR was compared to state of the art and standardised VAD methods and was shown to outperform the best performing system with an average relative improvement of 24.8% in half-total error rate (HTER) on the QUT-NOISE-TIMIT database created using real recordings from high-noise environments.

Brisbane floods : a traffic and transport perspective

Flood-besieged Brisbane residents were forced to watch the monster river consume their homes and livelihoods then see the receding water leave behind a putrid, tar-like sludge. The rains formed by multiple low pressure systems over Central Queensland caused chaos over the Christmas and New Year break for many parts of Queensland.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

Increased traffic exposure and negative birth outcomes : a prospective cohort in Australia

Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic : bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Indigenous Voice : a work-integrated learning case study in journalism education

The continuing stereotypical coverage of Inigenous affairs in the Australian media suggests that journalists are still finding it difficult to come to terms with more effective ways ofm reporting such issues. The many hundreds of students who graduate from journalism programs across Australia represent an opportunity to at least challenge the predominant methods and strategies. But how prepared are journalism graduates for working with Indigenous issues? This paper explores the processas involved in an intensive reporting practices course held at the University of Queensland mid-2009. The course aimed to raise journalism student's awareness of some of the issues involved as well as enabling them to interact and work with personnel from the Brisbane Indigenous Media Community, 98.9 fm, the National Indigenous Radio Service, SBS and the ABC. The findings suggest that such structured programs have a significant impact on changing student's perceptions of, and approaches to, their role and journalists.

Searching for a feminist voice : film festivals and negotiating the tension between expectation and intent

International Film Festivals play a vital role in shaping filmmakers’ careers. This paper presents some initial findings from a current major research project, highlighting the significance of particular festival programming of emerging female directors from developing nations. Some filmmakers showcased at festivals actively privilege the voices of women in their films as a means of commenting on pressing cultural and political issues. Ironically, other filmmakers do not subscribe to the label of “feminist” or “woman filmmaker”, even if their respective films represent a strongly coded woman’s point of view. Tensions also arise inevitably when scrutinising women filmmakers from developing nations within a first world film festival context. The expectations of the researcher, the festival, film critics and audiences inevitably must negotiate with the original intentions of the filmmaker. This paper explores the significance of women filmmakers in attendance at the Brisbane International Film Festival (2009) and the International Film Festival Rotterdam (2010).

The Aboriginal voice and the left-leaning 'Australia' (Baz Luhrmann, 2008)

Arguing that Baz Luhrmann's "Australia" (2008) is a big-budget, non-independent film espousing a left-leaning political ideology in its non-racist representations of Aborigines on film, this paper suggests the addition of a 'fourth formation' to the 1984 Moore and Muecke model is warranted. According to their theorising, racist "first formation" films promote policies of assimilation whereas "second formation" films avoid overt political statements in favour of more acceptable multicultural liberalism. Moore and Muecke's seemingly ultimate "third formation films", however, blatantly foreground the director's leftist political dogma in a necessarily low budget, independent production. "Australia", on the other hand, is an advance on the third formation because its feminised Aboriginal voice is safely backed by a colossal production budget and indicates a transformation in public perceptions of Aboriginal issues. Furthermore, this paper argues that the use of low-cost post-production techniques such as voice-over narration by racially appropriate individuals and the use of diegetic song in Australia work to ensure the positive reception of the left-leaning message regarding the Stolen Generations. With these devices Luhrmann effectively counters the claims of right-wing denialists such as Andrew Bolt and Keith Windschuttle.

Heidegger's hippies : a dissenting voice on "the problem of the subject"

This is a deliberately contentious paper about the future of the socio-political sphere in the West based on what we know about its past. I argue that the predominant public discourse in Western countries is best characterised as one of selective forgetfulness; a semi-blissful, amnesiacal state of collective dementia that manifests itself in symbolic idealism: informationalism. Informationalism is merely the latest form of idealism. It is a lot like religion insofar as it causally relates abstract concepts with reality and, consequently, becomes confused between the two. Historically, this has proven to be a dangerous state of affairs, especially when elites becomes confused between ideas about how a society should work, and the way it actually does work. Central to the idealism of the information age, at least in intellectual spheres, is the so called "problem of the subject". I argue that the "problem of the subject" is a largely synthetic, destabilising, and ultimately fruitless theoretical abstraction which turns on a synthetically derived, generalised intradiscursive space; existentialist nihilism; and the theoretical baubles of ontological metaphysics. These philosophical aberrations are, in turn, historically concomitant with especially destructive political and social configurations. This paper sketches a theoretical framework for identity formation which rejects the problem of the subject, and proposes potential resources, sources, and strategies with which to engage the idealism that underpins this obfuscating problematic in an age of turbulent social uncertainty. Quite simply, I turn to history as the source of human identity. While informationalism, like religion, is mostly focused on utopian futures, I assert that history, not the future, holds the solutions for substantive problematics concerning individual and social identities. I argue here that history, language, thought, and identity are indissolubly entangled and so should be understood as such: they are the fundamental parts of 'identities in action'. From this perspective, the ‘problem of the subject’ becomes less a substantive intellectual problematic and more a theoretical red herring.

Multicast traffic filtering for sampled value process bus networks

Ethernet is a key component of the standards used for digital process buses in transmission substations, namely IEC 61850 and IEEE Std 1588-2008 (PTPv2). These standards use multicast Ethernet frames that can be processed by more than one device. This presents some significant engineering challenges when implementing a sampled value process bus due to the large amount of network traffic. A system of network traffic segregation using a combination of Virtual LAN (VLAN) and multicast address filtering using managed Ethernet switches is presented. This includes VLAN prioritisation of traffic classes such as the IEC 61850 protocols GOOSE, MMS and sampled values (SV), and other protocols like PTPv2. Multicast address filtering is used to limit SV/GOOSE traffic to defined subsets of subscribers. A method to map substation plant reference designations to multicast address ranges is proposed that enables engineers to determine the type of traffic and location of the source by inspecting the destination address. This method and the proposed filtering strategy simplifies future changes to the prioritisation of network traffic, and is applicable to both process bus and station bus applications.

Car following model improvement for traffic safety metrics reproduction

Car Following models have a critical role in all microscopic traffic simulation models. Current microscopic simulation models are unable to mimic the unsafe behaviour of drivers as most are based on presumptions about the safe behaviour of drivers. Gipps model is a widely used car following model embedded in different micro-simulation models. This paper examines the Gipps car following model to investigate ways of improving the model for safety studies application. The paper puts forward some suggestions to modify the Gipps model to improve its capabilities to simulate unsafe vehicle movements (vehicles with safety indicators below critical thresholds). The result of the paper is one step forward to facilitate assessing and predicting safety at motorways using microscopic simulation. NGSIM as a rich source of vehicle trajectory data for a motorway is used to extract its relatively risky events. Short following headways and Time To Collision are used to assess critical safety event within traffic flow. The result shows that the modified proposed car following to a certain extent predicts the unsafe trajectories with smaller error values than the generic Gipps model.