Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

The causes and effects of depreciation in office buildings: a ten year update

This paper publishes the results of the 1996 study, which repeats a cross-section analysis of around 125 City of London office buildings, and examines the longitudinal data contributed by a sample of 56 unrefurbished properties common to the 1986 and 1996 City of London datasets. An estimate of the average rate of rental and capital value depreciation is made; the effect of age is shown not to be straight-line; and the causes if depreciation are measured. The results are compared with the 1986 City of London findings.

Friction and inertia: business change, corporate real estate portfolios and the UK office market

It has been asserted that business reorganisation and new working practices are transforming the nature of demand for business space. Downsizing, delayering, business process reengineering and associated initiatives alter the amount, type and location of space required by firms. The literature has neglected the impact of real estate market structures on the ability of organisations to successfully implement these new organisational forms or contemporary working practices. Drawing from UK research, the paper demonstrates that, while new working practices are widespread, their impact on the corporate real estate portfolio is less dramatic than often supposed. In part, this is attributed to inflexibility in market structures which constrains the supply of appropriate space.

International investment, ownership and risk in the City of London office market: an analysis of trends 1972-1997

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk.

Change & flexibility: the role of serviced office space in corporate real estate portfolios and office markets

With the increasing pace of change, organisations have sought new real estate solutions which provide greater flexibility. What appears to be required is not flexibility for all uses but appropriate flexibility for the volatile, risky and temporal part of a business. This is the essence of the idea behind the split between the core and periphery portfolio. The serviced office has emerged to fill the need for absolute flexibility. This market is very diverse in terms of the product, services and target market. It has grown and gained credibility with occupiers and more recently with the property investment market. Occupiers similarly use this space in a variety of ways. Some solely occupy serviced space while others use it to complement their more permanent space. It therefore appears that the market is fulfilling the role of providing periphery space for at least some of the occupiers. In all instances the key to this space is a focus on financial and tenurial flexibility which is not provided by other types of business space offered.

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – part 1: energy and water fluxes

This manuscript describes the energy and water components of a new community land surface model called the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). This is developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). It can be used as a stand alone land surface model driven by observed forcing data, or coupled to an atmospheric global circulation model. The JULES model has been coupled to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and as such provides a unique opportunity for the research community to contribute their research to improve both world-leading operational weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems. In addition JULES, and its forerunner MOSES, have been the basis for a number of very high-profile papers concerning the land-surface and climate over the last decade. JULES has a modular structure aligned to physical processes, providing the basis for a flexible modelling platform.

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.

A representação feminina na obra de Virginia Woolf: um diálogo entre o projeto político e o estético

Pós-graduação em Estudos Literários - FCLAR

Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Núcleo Santa Virginia: uma análise paisagística comparativa do período de 1989 até o presente

The Atlantic Forest is considered the fifth most important hotspot of the world, for its high endemism and biodiversity. The Serra do Mar State Park (SMSP) is the biggest area of integral protection in Brazilian coast, having the largest continuous remnant area of Atlantic Forest. Its creation aims to protect the Atlantic Forest remnants and regeneration of degraded areas. The present work develops in the administrative center Núcleo Santa Virgínia, created on May 2, 1989 and aims a comparative analysis and environmental interpretation regarding the evolution of the landscape its creation until the present days, using geoprocessing techniques. For a better understanding of some definitions, a literature review is presented about the current scenario of conservation units, concepts of landscape, landscape ecology, landscape dynamics and the importance of the geoprocessing for landscape analysis. It was elaborated two thematic charts of use and occupation land of Núcleo Santa Virgínia (1989 and 2014) and quantified for each type of use for later comparison

A support system that delineates location-choice sets for firms seeking office space

Factors influencing the location decisions of offices include traffic, accessibility, employment conditions, economic prospects and land-use policies. Hence tools for supporting real-estate managers and urban planners in such multidimensional decisions may be useful. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tool to support firms who seek office accommodation within a given regional or national study area. The tool relies on a matching approach, in which a firm's characteristics (demand) on the one hand, and environmental conditions and available office spaces (supply) on the other, are analyzed separately in a first step, after which a match is sought. That is, a suitability score is obtained for every firm and for every available office space by applying some value judgments (satisfaction, utility etc.). The latter are powered by a focus on location aspects and expert knowledge about the location decisions of firms/organizations with respect to office accommodation as acquired from a group of real-estate advisers; it is stored in decision tables, and they constitute the core of the model. Apart from the delineation of choice sets for any firm seeking a location, the tool supports two additional types of queries. Firstly, it supports the more generic problem of optimally allocating firms to a set of vacant locations. Secondly, the tool allows users to find firms which meet the characteristics of any given location. Moreover, as a GIS-based tool, its results can be visualized using GIS features which, in turn, facilitate several types of analyses.

Are land sparing and land sharing real alternatives for European agricultural landscapes?

There is a lively debate on whether biodiversity conservation and agricultural production could be better reconciled by land sparing (strictly separating production fields and conservation areas) or by land sharing (combining both, agricultural production and biodiversity conservation on the same land). The debate originates from tropical countries, where agricultural land use continues to increase at the expense of natural ecosystems. But is it also relevant for Europe, where agriculture is withdrawing from marginal regions whilst farming of fertile lands continues to be intensified? Based on recent research on farmland biodiversity we conclude that the land sharing – land sparing dichotomy is too simplistic for Europe. Instead we differentiate between productive and marginal farmland. On productive farmland, semi-natural habitats are required to yield ecosystem services relevant for agriculture, to promote endangered farmland species which society wants to conserve even in intensively farmed regions, and to allow migration of non-farmland species through the agricultural matrix. On marginal farmland, high-nature value farming is a traditional way of land sharing, yielding high quality agricultural products and conserving specialized species. To conserve highly disturbance-sensitive species, there is a need for nature reserves. In conclusion, land sparing is not a viable olution for Europe in both productive and marginal farmland but because of different reasons in each type of farmland.