Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Estratigrafia sismica do cenozóico na plataforma continental algarvia: interpretação do controle tectónico da sedimentação

The interpretation of 64 seismic reflection profiles in the Algarve continental platform (36º 20'-37º 00' paralels and 7º 20'-8º 40' meridians) calibrated with five petroleum exploration wells, with the identification of the geometric relations between six Cenozoic seismic units (B to G) and tectonic structures, allowed the construction of sucessive time-isopach maps (twt/s) and detailed interpretation of the geologic evolution. Two major tectonic structures were identified: a) the Portimão-Monchique fracture zone (striking N-S); b) an off-shore NW-SE fault zone, probably the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault. This accident separates two tectonic domains: the western domain (with N-S and E-W predominant structures and, secondarily, NW-SE and NE-SW) and the eastern domain (dominated by WSW-ENE, NW-SE, NE-SW, NNE-SSW and NNW-SSE structures). A persistent halokinetic activity had two major moments: a) sin-C unit; b) sin- and post-E unit. An increasing flexuration of the margin was identified, with spacial and temporal variation of the subsidence. The tectonic regime is considered as generally compressive, but the interpretation of the successíve stress-fields is rendered dificult by the existence of tectonic sub-domains and evaporitic structures.

R. Palazzo di Caser.ta : [vue générale des jardins et du palais royal de Caserte] : [peinture]

Collectionneur : Lesouëf, Auguste (1829-1906)

Interno di Palazzo Vecchio. Firenze : [peinture] / Arrighi

Collectionneur : Lesouëf, Auguste (1829-1906)

Obtencao e interpretacao de dados de Reflexao Sismica Superficial (Rasa) - exemplos e aplicacoes

Successful application of shallow seismic reflection method is related directly to the ability of the ground to transmit high-frequency seismic energy from a seismic source. The dominant frequencies of reflection data are in the range of 50 to 100 Hz and depend on the surface materials and water table. A spread of geophones send the siemsic signal to be recorded on a 12, 24 or 48 channel portable seismograph, using a single high-frequency geophone per channel. Although it is possible to find seismographs with display and processing unities, it is also possible to transfer digitalized data to a personal computer to be processed and interpreted by using specific programs. Some results of two recent field studies to specify the underground structure in the tidal flats area of Baie St. Paul (Quebec-Canada) and in glacial terrains, in the Waterloo (Ontario-Canada) region. -from English summary

Le cyclonne Jeanne en Haïti: degats et effets sur les departements du Nord-Ouest et de l'Artibonite: approfondissement de la vulnerabilité

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