Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Solar Intensity Forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines

This paper presents several forecasting methodologies based on the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), directed to the prediction of the solar radiance intensity. The methodologies differ from each other by using different information in the training of the methods, i.e, different environmental complementary fields such as the wind speed, temperature, and humidity. Additionally, different ways of considering the data series information have been considered. Sensitivity testing has been performed on all methodologies in order to achieve the best parameterizations for the proposed approaches. Results show that the SVM approach using the exponential Radial Basis Function (eRBF) is capable of achieving the best forecasting results, and in half execution time of the ANN based approaches.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Epidemiologia da malária em Cabo Verde - Factores genéticos humanos e estrutura populacional do mosquito vector

A malária, doença parasitária complexa que resulta da interacção entre parasita, hospedeiros humano e vector, constitui um dos principais problemas de saúde a nível mundial. À semelhança de outras doenças parasitárias e infecciosas a malária tem um papel importante na evolução, tendo já sido demonstrado o papel da variação genética humana na resistência à infecção. Após quase meio século de controlo, a malária persiste na ilha de Santiago onde, apesar da baixa endemicidade, os indivíduos apresentam geralmente manifestações moderadas, são diagnosticadas infecções abaixo do nível detectável pela microscopia e o vector se encontra muito próximo da população supostamente susceptível, desconhecendo-se a frequência dos principais polimorfismos genéticos humanos mais relacionados com a doença e a estrutura populacional do mosquito vector. Os objectivos gerais de trabalho desta tese assentam 1) no estudo dos dois clássicos factores genéticos do hospedeiro humano relacionados com a malária, nomeadamente os afectos à anemia das células falciformes, à deficiência em G6PD e a análise dum provável envolvimento da PK e 2) na análise genética das populações do mosquito vector, tentando contribuir para a compreensão da epidemiologia da doença na Ilha, e para a escolha de medidas de controlo apropriadas. Os trabalhos incidiram na detecção do alelo responsável pela hemoglobina S, de polimorfismos no gene da G6PD e da PK em indivíduos não aparentados (Infectados e não Infectados) com análise da sua provável associação com a infecção e, ainda, na genotipagem de loci microssatélites de Anopheles arabiensis com recurso a técnicas baseadas na PCR. Relativamente à anemia falciforme, a frequência dos portadores do traço (indivíduos HbAS) e do alelo HbS foi 6% e 5%, respectivamente, e para as variantes da G6PD, 0,8% para G6PDA- e 0,0% para a G6PDMed, não tendo sido encontrado associação entre os genótipos desses dois factores e a presença de infecção. No que concerne ao gene PKLR não foi encontrada uma associação clara entre os polimorfismos analisados e o estado de infecção, mas foi detectado um acentuado desequilíbrio de linkage entre os loci, apenas nos Não Infectados, o que pode significar que essa região do gene, aparentemente conservada, tenha sido seleccionada por fornecer protecção contra a infecção e/ou doença. A diversidade genética das populações de A. arabiensis em onze loci microssatélites foi moderada com valores médio de He, variando de 0,481 a 0,522 e a Rs de 4 a 5. O valor da diferenciação genética baseado em 7 loci polimórficos foi baixo (FST=0,012; p<0,001) mas significativo, variando entre 0,001 e 0,023 entre os pares de populações. Não foram detectados os alelos de resistência associados ao gene Kdr. A baixa frequência dos alelos associados à G6PD (A- e Med) tem implicações importantes nas estratégias de controlo definidas pelo Programa Nacional de Luta contra o Paludismo (PNLP), uma vez que a primaquina pode continuar a ser administrada como complemento aos regimes terapêuticos, em caso de necessidade. A população de A. arabiensis em Santiago revelou-se relativamente homogénea e com uma estrutura reduzida o que pode, por um lado, representar uma desvantagem por permitir uma provável dispersão dos genes de resistência. Por outro lado, essa relativa homogeneidade poderá representar uma vantagem para a introdução de um programa de controlo baseado na libertação de mosquitos transgénicos.

Eco-epidemiological aspects of Trypanosoma cruzi, Trypanosoma rangeli and their vector (Rhodnius pallescens) in Panama

The eco-epidemiology of T. cruzi infection was investigated in the Eastern border of the Panama Canal in Central Panama. Between 1999 and 2000, 1110 triatomines were collected: 1050 triatomines (94.6%) from palm trees, 27 (2.4%) from periurban habitats and 33 (3.0%) inside houses. All specimens were identified as R. pallescens. There was no evidence of vector domiciliation. Salivary glands from 380 R. pallescens revealed a trypanosome natural infection rate of 7.6%, while rectal ampoule content from 373 triatomines was 45%. Isoenzyme profiles on isolated trypanosomes demonstrated that 85.4% (n = 88) were T. cruzi and 14.6% (n = 15) were T. rangeli. Blood meal analysis from 829 R. pallescens demonstrated a zoophilic vector behavior, with opossums as the preferential blood source. Seroprevalence in human samples from both study sites was less than 2%. Our results demonstrate that T. cruzi survives in the area in balanced association with R. pallescens, and with several different species of mammals in their natural niches. However, the area is an imminent risk of infection for its population, consequently it is important to implement a community educational program regarding disease knowledge and control measures.

A Triatoma maculata (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) population from Roraima, Amazon region, Brazil, has some bionomic characteristics of a potential Chagas disease vector

Even though Chagas disease is rare in the Brazilian Amazon, the conditions for the establishment of domiciliated cycles prevail in many areas where triatomines are of frequent occurrence. In Roraima, a previous serological and entomological survey in three agricultural settlements showed the existence of all transmission cycle elements, i.e., individuals infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, triatomine species previously found harboring T. cruzi in the broader Amazon region of neighboring countries and, domicile/ peridomicile conditions favorable to triatomine colonization. Triatoma maculata was the most frequent species, found in chicken houses in the peridomicile and sporadically within residences. Aiming to investigate the possibility of T. maculata to possess the potentiality to transmit T. cruzi in the area, bionomic characteristics were studied under laboratory conditions. These were feeding frequency, time for defecation after a blood meal, time elapsed in voluntary fasting pre- and pos-ecdysis, moulting time periods, pre-oviposition and oviposition periods and index of oviposition, incubation period, egg viability, longevity and mortality rate. Results show that the Passarão population of T. maculata should be considered a potential vector of T. cruzi since it shows a capacity to infest artificial ecotopes in the peridomicile, to carry out large number of meals during the nymphal cycle, to have a relatively short developmental cycle capable of producing 2.9 generations/year, to blood source eclecticism, to defecate immediately after the blood meal while still on the host and to the fact that has been previously found naturally infected by T.cruzi.

Salivary gland proteins of the human malaria vector, Anopheles dirus B (Diptera: Culicidae)

Salivary gland proteins of the human malaria vector, Anopheles dirus B were determined and analyzed. The amount of salivary gland proteins in mosquitoes aged between 3 - 10 days was approximately 1.08 ± 0.04 µg/female and 0.1 ± 0.05 µg/male. The salivary glands of both sexes displayed the same morphological organization as that of other anopheline mosquitoes. In females, apyrase accumulated in the distal regions, whereas alpha-glucosidase was found in the proximal region of the lateral lobes. This differential distribution of the analyzed enzymes reflects specialization of different regions for sugar and blood feeding. SDS-PAGE analysis revealed that at least seven major proteins were found in the female salivary glands, of which each morphological region contained different major proteins. Similar electrophoretic protein profiles were detected comparing unfed and blood-fed mosquitoes, suggesting that there is no specific protein induced by blood. Two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel analysis showed the most abundant salivary gland protein, with a molecular mass of approximately 35 kilodaltons and an isoelectric point of approximately 4.0. These results provide basic information that would lead to further study on the role of salivary proteins of An. dirus B in disease transmission and hematophagy.

Hybrid link-state path-vector protocol ++

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

On an acute case of Chagas disease in a region under vector control in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

No vector transmitted cases of Chagas disease had been notified in the state of São Paulo since the 1970s. However, in March, 2006, the death of a six-year-old boy from the municipality of Itaporanga was notified to the Center for Epidemiological Survey of the São Paulo State Health Secretariat: an autochthonous case of acute Chagas disease. The postmortem histopathological examination performed in the Hospital das Clínicas of the Botucatu School of Medicine confirmed the diagnosis. Reference to hospital records, consultation with the health professionals involved in the case and interviews with members of the patient's family supplied the basis for this study. We investigated parasite route of transmission, probable local reservoirs and vectors. No further human cases of acute Chagas disease were diagnosed. No locally captured vectors or reservoirs were found infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. Alternative transmission hypotheses - such as the possible ingestion of foods contaminated with vector excreta - are discussed, as well as the need to keep previously endemic regions and infested houses under close surveillance. Clinicians should give due attention to such signs as uni- or bilateral palpebral edema, cardiac failure, myocarditis, pericarditis, anasarca and atypical signs of nephrotic syndrome or nephritis and consider the diagnostic hypothesis of Chagas disease.

Characterization of the molluscicidal activity of Bauhinia variegata and Mimusops elengi plant extracts against the fasciola vector lymnaea acuminata

The molluscicidal activity of Bauhinia variegata leaf and Mimusops elengi bark was studied against vector snail Lymnaea acuminata. The toxicity of both plants was time and concentration-dependent. Among organic extracts, ethanol extracts of both plants were more toxic. Toxicity of B. variegata leaf ethanolic extract (96h LC50- 14.4 mg/L) was more pronounced than M. elengi bark ethanolic extract (96h LC50-15.0 mg/L). The 24h LC50 of column purified fraction of B. variegata and M. elengi bark were 20.3 mg/L and 18.3 mg/L, respectively. Saponin and quercetin were characterized and identified as active molluscicidal component. Co-migration of saponin (Rf 0.48) and quercetin (Rf 0.52) with column purified bark of M. elengi and leaf of B. variegata on thin layer chromatography demonstrate same Rf value i.e. 0.48 and 0.52, respectively. The present study clearly indicates the possibility of using M. elengi and/or B. variegata as potent molluscicide.

Toxicity of saponin isolated from Gymnema sylvestre R. Br. (Asclepiadaceae) against Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) Japanese encephalitis vector mosquito in India

To determine the larvicidal activity of various extracts of Gymnema sylvestre against the Japanese Encephalitis vector, Culex tritaeniorynchus in Tamilnadu, India. To identify the active principle present in the promising fraction obtained in Chlorofom:Methanol extract of Fraction 2. The G. sylvestre leaf extracts were tested, employing WHO procedure against fourth instar larvae of C. tritaeniorhynchus and the larval mortalities were recorded at various concentrations (6.25, 12.5, 25.0, 50 and 100 µg/mL); the 24h LC50 values of the G. Sylvestre leaf extracts were determined following Probit analysis. It was noteworthy that treatment level 100 µg/mL exhibited highest mortality rates for the three different crude extracts and was significantly different from the mean mortalities recorded for the other concentrations. The LC50 values of 34.756 µg/mL (24.475-51.41), 31.351 µg/mL (20.634-47.043) and 28.577 µg/mL (25.159-32.308) were calculated for acetone, chloroform and methanol extract with the chi-square values of 10.301, 31.351 and 4.093 respectively. The present investigation proved that G. Sylvestre could be possibly utilized as an important component in the Vector Control Program.

In vitro PHYTOTHERAPY OF VECTOR SNAILS BY BINARY COMBINATIONS OF LARVICIDAL ACTIVE COMPONENTS IN EFFECTIVE CONTROL OF FASCIOLIASIS

SUMMARY A food-borne trematode infection fascioliasis is one among common public health problems worldwide. It caused a great economic loss for the human race. Control of snail population below a certain threshold level is one of the important methods in the campaign to reduce the incidence of fascioliasis. The life cycle of the parasite can be interrupted by killing the snail or Fasciola larva redia and cercaria inside of the snail Lymnaea acuminata. In vitro toxicity of different binary combinations (1:1 ratio) of plant-derived larvicidal active components such as citral, ferulic acid, umbelliferone, azadirachtin and allicin against Fasciola redia and cercaria were tested. The mortality of larvae was observed at 2h, 4h, 6h and 8h of treatment. In in vitro condition azadirachtin + allicin (1:1 ratio) was highly toxic against redia and cercaria (8h LC50 0.006 and 0.005 mg/L). Toxicity of citral + ferulic acid was lowest against redia and cercaria larvae.

FIRST REPORT OF ACUTE CHAGAS DISEASE BY VECTOR TRANSMISSION IN RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL

SUMMARY Chagas disease (CD) is an endemic anthropozoonosis from Latin America of which the main means of transmission is the contact of skin lesions or mucosa with the feces of triatomine bugs infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. In this article, we describe the first acute CD case acquired by vector transmission in the Rio de Janeiro State and confirmed by parasitological, serological and PCR tests. The patient presented acute cardiomyopathy and pericardial effusion without cardiac tamponade. Together with fever and malaise, a 3 cm wide erythematous, non-pruritic, papule compatible with a "chagoma" was found on his left wrist. This case report draws attention to the possible transmission of CD by non-domiciled native vectors in non-endemic areas. Therefore, acute CD should be included in the diagnostic workout of febrile diseases and acute myopericarditis in Rio de Janeiro.