Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

A Weak Maximum Principle for Optimal Control Problems with Nonsmooth Mixed Constraints

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

LEAST ACTION PRINCIPLE and THE INCOMPRESSIBLE EULER EQUATIONS WITH VARIABLE DENSITY

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A variational method for identifying a spacewise-dependent heat source

The inverse problem of determining a spacewise-dependent heat source for the parabolic heat equation using the usual conditions of the direct problem and information from one supplementary temperature measurement at a given instant of time is studied. This spacewise-dependent temperature measurement ensures that this inverse problem has a unique solution, but the solution is unstable and hence the problem is ill-posed. We propose a variational conjugate gradient-type iterative algorithm for the stable reconstruction of the heat source based on a sequence of well-posed direct problems for the parabolic heat equation which are solved at each iteration step using the boundary element method. The instability is overcome by stopping the iterative procedure at the first iteration for which the discrepancy principle is satisfied. Numerical results are presented which have the input measured data perturbed by increasing amounts of random noise. The numerical results show that the proposed procedure yields stable and accurate numerical approximations after only a few iterations.

A variational conjugate gradient method for determining the fluid velocity of a slow viscous flow

The problem considered is that of determining the fluid velocity for linear hydrostatics Stokes flow of slow viscous fluids from measured velocity and fluid stress force on a part of the boundary of a bounded domain. A variational conjugate gradient iterative procedure is proposed based on solving a series of mixed well-posed boundary value problems for the Stokes operator and its adjoint. In order to stabilize the Cauchy problem, the iterations are ceased according to an optimal order discrepancy principle stopping criterion. Numerical results obtained using the boundary element method confirm that the procedure produces a convergent and stable numerical solution.

Variational Principles for Monotone and Maximal Bifunctions

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 49J40, 49J35, 58E30, 47H05

Geometric Hamiltonian formulation of a variational problem depending on the covariant acceleration

We consider a second-order variational problem depending on the covariant acceleration, which is related to the notion of Riemannian cubic polynomials. This problem and the corresponding optimal control problem are described in the context of higher order tangent bundles using geometric tools. The main tool, a presymplectic variant of Pontryagin’s maximum principle, allows us to study the dynamics of the control problem.

Complementarity and the uncertainty principle as aesthetic principles : the practice and performance of The Physics Project

Using the generative processes developed over two stages of creative development and the performance of The Physics Project at the Loft at the Creative Industries Precinct at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) from 5th – 8th April 2006 as a case study, this exegesis considers how the principles of contemporary physics can be reframed as aesthetic principles in the creation of contemporary performance. The Physics Project is an original performance work that melds live performance, video and web-casting and overlaps an exploration of personal identity with the physics of space, time, light and complementarity. It considers the acts of translation between the language of physics and the language of contemporary performance that occur via process and form. This exegesis also examines the devices in contemporary performance making and contemporary performance that extend the reach of the performance, including the integration of the live and the mediated and the use of metanarratives.

Defending the sanctity of life principle : a reply to John Keown

This article is a response to Professor Keown’s criticism of my paper “Finding a Way Through the Ethical and Legal Maze: Withdrawal of Medical Treatment and Euthanasia” (2005) 13 (3) Medical Law Review 357. The article takes up and responds to a number of criticisms raised by Keown in an attempt to further the debate concerning the moral and legal status of withdrawing life-sustaining measures, its distinction from euthanasia, and the implications of the lawfulness of withdrawal for the principle of the sanctity of life.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.