Analysis and Quality Control from ARIMA Modeling

In this paper, we use ARIMA modelling to estimate a set of characteristics of a short-term indicator (for example, the index of industrial production), as trends, seasonal variations, cyclical oscillations, unpredictability, deterministic effects (as a strike), etc. Thus for each sector and product (more than 1000), we construct a vector of values corresponding to the above-mentioned characteristics, that can be used for data editing.

El centro comercial : una teoría tipológica : claves para el reconocimiento de una arquitectura ignorada

Existe en el panorama edificado un patrimonio construido que se reconoce como Centro Comercial. Un conjunto entendido, en sentido genérico, como familia arquitectónica que tiene características propias y específicas que la identifican. El objeto de la presente tesis doctoral consiste en argumentar que este conjunto constituye un nuevo tipo en el panorama de las tipologías arquitectónicas. Un tipo con entidad propia, que se conecta a una forma diferente de entender la idea de modelo. Un concepto que va más allá de la consideración tradicional del término. Modelo virtual. Este tipo, que surge de una estructura teórica que hemos denominado teoría tipológica, se constituye en una herramienta más para el estudio y el desarrollo proyectual de los espacios arquitectónicos, tanto del propio Centro Comercial como del conjunto de la disciplina arquitectónica, como referencia legítima. El presente trabajo de tesis se inicia con un bloque introductorio denominado Método. Definimos en él una metodología que hemos llamado emocional. Trata de la oportunidad de la tesis. Del porqué de un título que recoge la palabra ignorada. Del interés que suscita el asunto en el contexto del momento presente. Oportunidad e interés en base a una vida profesional dedicada al mundo del Centro Comercial y a la importancia del patrimonio elegido como objeto de estudio. También ha sido un aliciente detectar como las planificaciones del territorio y de los ámbitos de las relaciones colectivas no han sido capaces de integrar un resultado satisfactorio. Quizás por no considerar la complejidad de sus muchas facetas. En consecuencia, el texto busca la esencia del Centro Comercial como soporte para la crítica de su impacto en los nuevos escenarios de relación que la sociedad y el entorno físico imponen. Ámbitos donde los mecanismos históricos del asociacionismo tradicional han dado paso a otros, como el Centro Comercial, de exaltación del individualismo, pero demandados por una sociedad que se identifica con ellos. Espacios que, con Galbraith, existen por de la perversidad intrínseca del binomio consumo-producción que inducen la perplejidad. Ésta pasa a formar parte de la esencia del nuevo espacio comercial, como quedó de manifiesto en el Congreso de Minnesota de 1997, sobre el Centro Comercial. Una sociedad que ha girado hacia el logro material en términos de culto, ocasionando creciente valor significante del consumo. Razón última de la humanidad al decir de Rem Koolhaas. Culto que desemboca en la urgencia de alcanzar niveles de estatus y de identificación con el grupo. Dos parámetros que marcan la relación con el otro. Relación de comparación que excita la necesidad de posesión de objetos que llevaban a recrear en el consumidor la ilusión de ser especiales, de no pasar desapercibidos. El producto de consumo, el objeto, se eleva a la consideración de valor social. En el Centro Comercial se venden valores. Marketing de valores. El deseo del individuo, no la necesidad, queda involucrado en el proceso. La oportunidad y el interés de este estudio surgen además para aclarar el significado de un espacio que sirve al consumidor y a su entorno. Un significado que alcanza sentido, entre otros, por la aparición de un nuevo contexto tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Suburbanización, automóvil, nivel de vida, un nuevo papel de la mujer. La Era del Consumo. Una era que genera la paradoja de un individuo con autodeterminación y autosuficiencia crecientes, en un mundo cada vez más condicionado y controlado por dinámicas de ofertas mediatizadas e ilimitadas. La arquitectura en este contexto ha de juzgarse por su relación con un hombre contemporáneo que camina hacia una progresiva excepcionalidad. Cerramos la presentación justificando el término ignorada que aparece en el Título de la Tesis. Subrayamos la escasa existencia de estudios estructurados que relacionen Centro Comercial y arquitectura. Realidad que se constata partiendo del libro de Pevsner, Historia de las Tipologías Arquitectónicas, de 1976. Analizamos también la aceptación que el Centro Comercial, valorado en algunos ámbitos como arquitectura populista. Primer Capítulo, los antecedentes. Se propone un recorrido histórico por la arquitectura comercial de todos los tiempos. El Documento busca concretar las características de la arquitectura comercial a lo largo de la historia para determinar relaciones entre ella y el Centro Comercial. Estas correspondencias van a permitir contestar la pregunta retórica que nos hacemos al inicio del Capítulo: ¿Es la arquitectura del Centro Comercial una arquitectura subsidiaria, o tiene personalidad propia independiente de la del mundo comercial? Con Zevi40, queremos dejar constancia que la relación arquitectura-historia es imprescindible en la tarea proyectual. Un análisis novedoso solo es posible desde la búsqueda de unas raíces auténticas. Así mismo, con Guy de Maupassant, estamos convencidos que “La arquitectura, a través de los siglos, ha tenido el privilegio de dar un símbolo a cada una de las épocas, de resumir con un pequeñísimo número de monumentos típicos, el modo de pensar, de soñar de una raza y de una civilización”. Este recorrido se inicia interpretando la arquitectura comercial minoica. Llegaremos, paso a paso, hasta el siglo XX, los grandes itinerarios comerciales y el Centro Comercial. Se descubren una serie de invariantes que permiten comparar y extraer conclusiones. Resulta novedoso constatar que el Centro Comercial nace para dar respuesta al hombre contemporáneo en su afán consumista. También lo es la rápida implantación y evolución del Centro Comercial en un corto periodo de sesenta años frente al ritmo sosegado de otras soluciones comerciales. Novedad es ver como el comercio y sus arquitecturas nacen abiertos, bajo tenderetes y el Centro Comercial se presenta cerrado. Así mismo, las referencias sacras constituyen un elemento de novedad para la reflexión, en un contexto materialista. Y tantas otras. En Minos, la óptica comercial ofrece otra visión de su legendaria cultura. ¿Palacio o plataforma logística?, gestión centralizada del intercambio, ¿vida pública y vida privada? Así, hasta llegar al siglo XIX. Sus las galerías y sus pasajes acristalados concebidos en primera instancia como medida de recomposición urbana. Espacio entendido desde lo público-privado, desde lo interior-exterior, desde el dentro-afuera, desde lo cerrado-abierto. Con los nuevos mercados de abastos, representan una revolución en el ámbito de la funcionalidad, de la máquina, de la gestión moderna y de las relaciones del ciudadano con la ciudad apoyado en base al intercambio de bienes de consumo. El Centro Comercial es heredero de esta transformación. El Gran Almacén, por otra parte, es el reflejo de otra gran revolución. La que va ligada a la producción y comercialización en masa, las comunicaciones, el precio fijo y el aumento del nivel de vida. El Centro Comercial reinterpreta estas situaciones insertándolas en un nuevo modelo de gestión. En el siglo XX, maestro en técnicas de venta, aparece el hipermercado. El Híper, con su carga de pedagogía, se incorpora al esquema orgánico del Centro Comercial. La tienda en si misma constituye la pieza base de dicho puzle orgánico. Es en esta época cuando la tienda empieza su despegue autónomo como arquitectura, aportando su experiencia. Tras ello, llegamos a las grandes rutas comerciales, que proponemos como metáfora del shopping. Cerramos el capítulo concluyendo con Eugenio Ferrer que “si establecemos una relación entre el espacio y el capitalismo, entonces podemos inferir que los espacios del consumo de masas (ECM) son configuraciones nuevas respecto al pasado (...), pero el sistema que lo introduce no lo es del todo”. Segundo Capítulo. Búsqueda de claves que permitan el reconocimiento del Centro Comercial. Llegados a este punto y con la perspectiva del tiempo cabe preguntarnos, ¿qué entendemos pues por Centro Comercial? ¿Cómo lo percibimos? Abordamos ahora el problema de la percepción del Centro Comercial y su significado. Además de constituirse en símbolo, referencia siempre presente, la eficacia del Shopping es una de las principales causas de su poder de atracción. El Centro Comercial resulta de la síntesis de la revolución del consumo y de la revolución de la gestión. Espacio eficaz del entretenimiento como destino. El usuario resuelve su vida cotidiana dentro de un hábitat que considera propio y que se entiende como el lugar hiperbólico de la transacción comercial. Espacio de la abundancia para el disfrute. Una arquitectura involucrada en esta eficacia. Su sentido del lugar no es otro que el Shopping, que se desenvuelve de forma análoga en todas partes. El hogar del consumidor. Las nuevas catedrales. Las catedrales del consumo. Destino místico. Lugar de peregrinación para el consumidor fervoroso. Espacio sagrado que integra al usuario en la cultura dominante. Cultura del consumo. Templos, donde el tiempo ha perdido su sentido. Paraíso. Un espacio donde la altura, la luz natural, la dimensión general refuerzan el carácter sacro de un espacio para una nueva religión laica. Un espacio seguro, protegido que nos acerca a ideas como la de útero materno, con su carga de calidez y de significación erótica aplicado al encuentro compra-comprador y, ligado a ello, la literatura especializada habla del Centro Comercial como nave espacial hiperesterilizada o de agujero negro que absorbe la energía cultural. Más allá, la simulación, donde se percibe un simulacro de ciudad. Simulacro coherente con todo lo que el Shopping desencadena a su alrededor. El lugar de los sueños, de la fantasía. Aquí los productos se han metamorfoseado en fetiches, en significados. Televisión tridimensional, donde el usuario actúa guiado por una pulsión similar al zapping. Espacio lúdico de la fascinación por comprar o de imaginar que se compra. Espacio de simulaciones que llevan a la ensoñación. Un nuevo lugar que sustituye al espacio cotidiano, con el señuelo de la protección, en un contexto imaginariamente público. Espacio de la hiperrealidad donde no se distingue la realidad de la fantasía, donde tras episodios de confusión y desconcierto, se borran las fronteras con lo imaginario. Espacio mágico, escenario del gran espectáculo del consumo, controlado milimétricamente, al modo de la visita a un gran monumento, que ha de sobrevivir a los tiempos para dar testimonio de nuestro momento. Un icono, un símbolo que transmite un mensaje, que solo el consumidor es capaz de interpretar. Una agitada mezcla, sin precedentes, de percepciones que hablan de perplejidad y asombro ante el fenómeno del Centro Comercial, su espacio y las reacciones del hombre contemporáneo. ¿Cuáles serían las claves que nos permitirían reconocer la calidad esencial de un Centro Comercial, en esta concurrencia de perplejidades? Primero, la función de servicio. Un espacio donde ocurren muchas más cosas que lo obvio, que la compra. Un edificio que se involucra con el entorno de la mano de lo inesperado, la sorpresa y las expectativas. Esta vocación de servicio conecta Centro Comercial y naturaleza arquitectónica. Función que sugiere percepciones ligadas a la experiencia de compra. Organismo que vive y late al unísono con su visitante, colocándose al servicio de sus necesidades, de su afán de consumo, del que vive. Segundo, la comunidad servida. El Centro comercial sirve a una sociedad concreta. La sociedad consumista. Una nueva sociedad que se identifica con el edificio desarrollando un sentido de comunidad al nivel de sus deseos. Esta comunidad que se configura a su alrededor, constituye el activo más poderoso para el éxito de su realidad cotidiana y de su futuro. Tercero, un compromiso de carácter holístico. La economía de la experiencia aplicada al afán consumista de una sociedad identificada con su Centro, da lugar a una experiencia holística planificada. Diseño emocional. Colaboración para el éxito de un conjunto de establecimientos comerciales que participan en la aventura espacio-comercial del Centro Comercial. Ellos son los inductores primarios del consumo. Pero esta colaboración tiene su culminación en la amplificación del mensaje, como un inmenso altavoz, que proviene de la unidad configurada por todos ellos. El reflejo de esta amplificación de mensajes, desde la poderosa unidad constituida, es el aumento de la rentabilidad, fin último de la operación. Cuarto, la forma a través de una identificación de carácter gestáltico. Desde la lectura gestáltica que hacemos de la unidad holística, se advierte una poderosa capacidad de comunicación del sistema con su contexto. Centro y entorno se tornan entonces cómplices que complementan sus realidades. El Centro Comercial, arquitectura estructurada como sistema se percibe –ha de percibirse- como forma unitaria que procede de una mirada de raíz gestáltica que continuamente la recompone desde una óptica espacial y física, ligada a la experiencia individual. Esta unidad formal, más allá de la forma real, se constituye en esencia de de su arquitectura. Quinto, el Centro Comercial como sistema. Un sistema soportado por la Teoría General de Sistemas. La consideración del Centro Comercial como sistema es consecuencia de su estructura holística. El todo no se comporta como la suma de las partes y estas no lo hacen como lo harían en solitario. De aquí surge la necesidad de diálogo permanente entre la comercialización –proceso de incorporación de partes- y su traducción al mundo del diseño –proceso de articular arquitectónicamente las partes. Como sistema así configurado, el Centro Comercial se inserta en el paradigma contemporáneo, lo que genera realidades duales que no son excluyentes y reacciones de perplejidad e incertidumbre que el sistema corrige con su capacidad de autorregulación. Aparece también el espectador cuántico, el visitante, el consumidor, que interactúa con el sistema. Desde las herramientas que nos aporta la idea de sistema complejo, afrontamos el Mix Comercial -en definitiva la eficaz localización de las piezas en orden a sus relaciones y al organismo resultante- y su incidencia en la arquitectura que estamos concibiendo. Una arquitectura impredecible por lo mutable, que se erige en reto de la operación y del diseñador. Diseño que, de la mano del concepto de sistema se convierte en herramienta a mayor gloria de la operación global. El debate del estilismo no será más que el resultado del análisis en busca del éxito de esta operación. Sexto, una arquitectura de la negociación. Negociación como mecanismo proyectual y como resultado. La solución de proyecto nunca resulta evidente en el Centro Comercial como consecuencia de lo imprevisible del propio proceso de configuración. Su concreción solo puede ser fruto del compromiso de todos los agentes por conseguir el objetivo de la operación. Esto se consigue desde el equilibrio de intereses. Comerciales y de diseño. Un compromiso con la negociación y una negociación íntimamente ligada a la coordinación. Séptimo, el espacio y el tiempo. El debate espacio-tiempo condiciona y estructura la percepción del Centro Comercial. Introducimos conceptos como cronotopo –el instante y el lugar donde ocurre algo- y paradoja –incoherencia de la relación causa efecto- que sitúan el vínculo entre el tiempo y el espacio del Centro Comercial en un contexto de Shopping. En el discurrir paralelo del tiempo histórico –el tiempo de fuera- y del tiempo interior, el de dentro del Centro Comercial –tiempo presente o intemporalidad-, se produce el triunfo social del Centro Comercial que se traduce en haber sabido resolver en el espacio y en el tiempo las paradojas postmodernas del hombre contemporáneo. Octavo, de lo global. Globalidad que no es ajena a lo local. Una arquitectura que insertada en la dinámica de una economía de ámbito mundial, refleja las contradicciones que ella impone, fundamentalmente en los procesos de inclusión y exclusión, afectando de manera decisiva al debate de lo local, que el Centro Comercial debe incorporar como herramienta ineludible de reconocimiento. Terminamos el capítulo segundo manifestando como estas ocho claves, asumidas en su conjunto, confirman que el Centro Comercial puede aparecer como un todo conceptual cohesionado, pasando a formar parte de una familia arquitectónica coherente, cuya estructura funcional somos capaces de establecer. El Capítulo Tercero presenta con detalle la figura del arquitecto Víctor Gruen, creador reconocido del moderno Centro Comercial. Presentamos su trayectoria profesional observando como las diferentes claves analizadas en capítulos anteriores van apareciendo de manera natural a lo largo de ella "Victor Gruen may well have been the most influential architect of the twentieth century." Malcolm Gladwell. The Terrazo Jungle. Fifty Years Ago, The Mall Was Born. America Never Would Be The Same. 2004. In The New Yorker. Hombre complejo, conflictivo. Las paradojas a lo largo de su carrera fueron notables. Sin embargo siempre apareció como un hombre recto. Garret Eckbo, reconocido paisajista y colaborador de Gruen en el Centro Comercial peatonal del Centro urbano de Fresno, California, se asombraba de que alguien como Gruen hubiese sido capaz de combinar cortesía y humanidad en la carrera de ratas (sic) en la que se convirtió el universo de la comercialización americana y mantener la integridad542. Philip Johnson, en 1962, ponderando las muchas habilidades de Gruen manifestó que no estaba seguro si alguno de ellos, arquitectos artistas, hubiera sido capaz de hacer lo que Gruen hizo. A más, sobre Gruen, manifestó lo siguiente: "... El va más allá de la creación de un bello edificio. En jugar con la gente y sugerir lo que tienen que hacer, es un maestro. Y obtiene buenos resultados como hace la escultura. El suyo es un arte cívico, un sentido cívico.... Él es capaz de sentarse y poner cosas juntas. No es pomposo ni vano. Yo no me reuniría con él para hablar del diseño (de edificios). Víctor siente que cuando se habla de diseño se está ignorando todo el contexto... Su arquitectura es poderosamente limpia, no vuela la fantasía. Pero cuando te haces con su complejidad, ves que has descubierto algo más allá del diseño.... No puedes decir que haya alguien como él. La arquitectura tiene la suerte de tenerle como arquitecto..." Philip Johnson. Article in Fortune Review. 1962. El Documento de tesis cierra la visión de Gruen realizando un recorrido por los diferentes capítulos de su libro esencial, Shopping Towns Usa: The Planning of Shopping Centers. Solo su índice resulta un monumento al proceso de gestación del Centro Comercial. El libro, aquí simplemente mostrado en su estructura básica como un silencioso testigo, es la referencia canónica los Centros Comerciales contemporáneos, desde su aparición. . El Cuarto Capítulo del Documento de tesis es una recapitulación del trabajo anterior, en el que se sintetizan los conceptos de función y estilo relacionados con el Centro Comercial, se define en qué consiste cada uno de ellos y como, a partir de ahí, podemos afirmar que nos encontramos ante un tipo arquitectónico nuevo en el panorama de la disciplina arquitectónica. Terminamos el Capítulo integrando el Centro Comercial con un cuerpo teórico de referencias que se remiten a un tipo arquitectónico concreto y particular, acogiendo su singularidad como fenómeno arquitectónico autónomo. Como Conclusión de la tesis, resultado de todo lo anterior es decir, como consecuencia de la integración de un torrente de percepciones e intuiciones en un cuerpo teórico de referencias, deducidas de la existencia de unas claves que estructuran y penetran la esencia del singular modelo estudiado, haciéndolo detectable y seductor, resultan las características de un tipo arquitectónico con entidad propia que ordena, orienta y supedita la realidad y la existencia de esta nueva arquitectura. Una arquitectura nunca antes definida como tal, en el panorama tipológico de la disciplina. Teoría tipológica para una nueva arquitectura, que hemos ido proponiendo a lo largo del trabajo y que es coherente con los diferentes parámetros que se han analizado. Un conjunto edificado que, desde el estudio de sus claves esenciales y de sus invariantes perceptibles, aparece ahora más cercano, más familiar. Tanto que es posible destilar desde este conocimiento cercano e íntimo, una síntesis útil como referencia proyectual y como referencia para las grandes cuestiones que preocupan al discurrir del debate arquitectónico y sus ideas. El debate de la disciplina. El objeto de esta tesis, que consistía en establecer que el conjunto edificado que conocemos como Centro Comercial se constituye en un nuevo tipo en el panorama de las tipologías arquitectónicas, entendido el Centro Comercial en sentido genérico como familia arquitectónica con características propias y específicas que la hacen autónoma y reconocible, queda a nuestro juicio argumentado y justificado. ABSTRACT Within the frame of the built heritage there is a construction that is recognized as Shopping Center. An ensemble understood as an architectural family with its own specific recognizable characteristics. This thesis aims to explain that this building complex constitutes a new type in the panorama of architectural typology. This typology, with its singular identity, is connected to a way of understanding the idea of the model beyond an orthodox conception of the term understood as virtual model. This typology comes from a theoretical structure that we called typological theory, and it serves as yet another tool to reference the study and development design of the architectural spaces. In this first section, the Method, we emotionally explore the opportunities of this thesis. Why this typology has been ignored and the interest this work has in the present moment. An opportunity and an interest explained from an experience of a life dedicated to the world of Shopping Centers. The text then introduces the need for a rigorous knowledge of the Shopping Center’s essence in order to understand its impact in the frame of a new society and a new physical environment. A frame time where the historical mechanisms of association of civic community have given way to other gathering spaces like the Shopping Center, which encourages individualism, but is demanded by a society that relates to them. Spaces that, according to Galbraith, are a result of the intrinsic perversity of the unstoppable movement of the wheel of consumption-production. A society that has turned to worship of material achievement. Worship that provokes the appearance of an increasing value of consumption, according to Koolhaas, the only goal of humanity. Worship that ends in the need to reach certain status levels in the plane of a permanent comparison where the need of possession excites the consumer and gives them the illusion of being special. The product of consumption rises up to consideration of social values, entering a dynamic of marketing values, not only objects, but the desire of the individual remains. The study appears also to clarify the meaning of a space that serves the consumer and its context. A meaning that makes sense with the appearance of the suburbanization, the massive utilization of the car, the increase of living standards and the new role of women in the society after the Second World War, giving rise to the Age of Consumption. A world now determined and controlled by media and unlimited offers, where it’s necessary to place them in the context of the ordinary. An architecture that has to be judged precisely for its relation with this specific contemporary man. This section ends justifying the term ignored that appears in the Title of the Thesis, considering it in relation with the lack of studies structured about the Shopping Center and its architecture, drawing from Pevsner's work, A history of building types, 1976. Finally, the Shopping Center is analyzed with the most critical of thoughts, which considers it as populist architecture. The First Chapter, Precedents, proposes an historical tour of the commercial architecture throughout history. The Document looks to place on record the characteristics of the commercial architecture to set the connection between them and the Mall itself. These correspondences are going to allow us to answer the rhetorical question: is it the architecture of the Shopping Center a subsidiary architecture, or does it have its own personality independent from that of the commercial world? The reason of this historical search, citing Bruno Zevi, is that it is indispensable to establish the relationship between architecture and history, understating that an analysis is only possible when researching for their roots. Moreover, according to Guy de Maupassant, we are sure that architecture has had the privilege, across the centuries, of symbolizing as it were each age(…), through the harmony of lines and the charm of ornamentation all the grace and grandeur of an epoch. This historical reading, inseparable from a consistent design action, begins interpreting the commercial architecture of the Minoan to the 20th Century. Though this analysis of the big commercial itineraries and the study of the Shopping Center itself. A reading where we have found a series of constants that make it possible to draw conclusions from this comparison. The Mall appears to give response to the needs of a consumerist society. Comparing to the calm pace of the evolution of other commercial solutions, it is relevant its fast implantation and evolution in a short period of sixty years. Though via different solutions, the commercial spaces are considered taking into account the public-private relation, the interior-exterior, the inside-out, the closed-opened. Through that, the 19th century galleries and the food markets represent a revolution in functionality, in the machine, the modern management and the relations of the citizen within the city. All of this, the Mall inheritor feels. Likewise, the Department Store is the reflection of another great revolution. Production and commercialization en-mass, communications, the fixed price and increase of the living standard. The Mall reinterprets these situations inserting them in a new model of management. Already in the 20th century Mall and mass technologies of sale, the hypermarket is enthusiastically incorporated into the configuration of this organic scheme, constituting the base of one of the models, the French, that will be highly developed in the European continent. The shop itself constitutes, on the other hand, the key piece that completes the puzzle of the Mall and is in this epoch when it starts taking off as architecture, has an autonomous character. After all this, finally, we come to the big commercial routes, which we propose as metaphor of the shopping. Citing Eugenio Ferrer we can conclude that “If we establish a relation between the space and the capitalism, then we can infer that the spaces of the consumption of masses (ECM) are new configurations with regard to the past (...), but the system that introduces it it is not completely” Now we arrive at this point and with the perspective of time it is necessary to ask us, what do we understand about the Shopping Center? How do we perceive it? The second Chapter approaches the problem of the perception of the Mall and from this it is possible to detect and to identify key drivers that orientate the architectural comprehension of the space. The efficiency of the Shopping Center is its main power of attraction. A world that has ensued from the synthesis of the revolution of consumption and management. An effective cavern-like place of entertainment where the user, the consumer, the postmodern man solves his daily life inside a considered habitat. The hyperbolic place of commercial transaction. An abundance of space, that makes us perceive it as destination of entertainment. An architecture has evolved this efficiency, where the sense of place is at one with the sense of the Shopping. The home of the consumer. The new cathedrals. The cathedral of consumption. The place of peregrination for the fervent consumer. A sacred space that integrates the user in the dominant culture. A temple, where time itself has stopped existing. In this paroxysm, an expression of the Garden of Eden or Paradise itself. A space where the height, the natural daylight and the spatial dimension reinforce the sacred character of a new lay religion. Another common perception is that of a protected area, which leads to metaphors and considerations that suggest the idea of maternal womb, with its weight of erotic meaning, referring to the encounter of the shopper making a purchase. The literature also tells us about its perception as a sterile space capsule, a black hole that absorbs all cultural energy. Likewise, a world simulation where a mock city is perceived at first instance. Consistent with all that shopping triggers inside. A city, a space conceived as a place of dreams, fantasy, where the products have been metamorphosed into fetishes. Entertaining a television, three-dimensional television, where the user acts guided by a drive similar to zapping. A play area where the latest fascination is in the act of buying. Space simulations that unite and transcend creating atmospheres that lead to reverie. A new space replacing the daily space with the lure of safe space in a public context. A hyper-reality space with reality and fantasy, where borders are erased with imaginary episodes of confusion and bewilderment, without distinction. The charm and fascination of a space that reads like magic. The magic of a space which is defined as stage extravaganza, the large theatre, the consumer surveys in the fine control mode in which you visit a national monument. The shopping center has to survive the times to be a testimony of our time. An icon, a symbol that conveys a message, the message reads ‘consumer’. In short, a Shopping Center is a mix of unprecedented insights that speak of a widespread phenomenon of bewilderment. Its space and the reactions of contemporary man unfold in it like a fish in water. What are the key aspects which allow us to recognize the essential quality of a shopping center in this concurrence of perplexities? First, we want to record a service function of space much deeper than the immediately obvious, i.e. a purchase occurs. A building that appears to be involved with the environment and its people from the hand of the unexpected circumstances; surprise and attention. And that, in turn, also involves the visitor beyond the purchase. This dedication to service closely links the mall with its architectural nature. It is not the function of a lifeless machine. It is a feature that suggests unsuspected perceptions linked to the purchase, which speaks of an organism that lives and breathes in unison with the visitor. Second, in addition to the vocation of service-oriented desire for consumption, the Mall environment serves a particular society - The consumer society. A new society which relates to building a sense of community developed to the level of their desires. This community also constitutes the most powerful asset to the success of the daily life of the Shopping Center. Third, we emphasize that the so called economy of the experience is combined with the consumer zeal of a company that is identified by the Shopping Center. It connects to form a holistic and planned experience. This experience takes shape in the entity that ensues from the premeditated association and synergy, in the sense of a collaboration for success. A set of concrete commercial and independent establishments, take part in the spatial and commercial adventure that is the Mall and they are the instigators of the consumption. This holistic behavior finds culmination in the amplification of a claim that becomes unitary, like an immense force that leads to an increased profitability to all the levels. Consummation is a reference of one human being overturned in an architecture assimilated into a legitimate, emotional design with stability. A holistic quality is born of the essence of the building - and by virtue of the Conditions of Alexander, Christopher Alexander, determines the system condition of the Shopping Center. Fourth, we propose to establish what character the Mall will form when joined with the concept of its typology. This is going to allow the architectural work to be formed. As a result of the holistic structure that we see, the Mall is perceived as a system whose parts have their own function, justifying their existence in the ecosystem. Across a gestalt there is a powerful capacity of communication between the system and its context. We visualize on the one that stands out our building, turning both, Center and environment, in accomplices of a few special relations who complement each other in his realities. This relationship within a complex and diverse environment gives the Mall a range of unique spatial perceptions, the result of disparate experiences, which because of its root origin of gestalt, are integrated into a unified and coordinated manner fully intelligible and organized. This is the final formal essence of the Shopping Center. We can conclude here that the Mall as architecture is a structured system and should be perceived as a unit both from a physical and spatial perspective as this is the essence of its architecture. Fifth, the Mall as a system. A system which is being supported by a broad theoretical corpus, the General Systems Theory, which offers sufficient methodology to descend into consideration and give an enlightened conclusion on the overall understanding of the Mall. Consideration of the Mall as a system is a result of its holistic structure. The whole does not behave like any of the parties and they do not behave the way they used to before belonging to the whole, because they inhibit many of their qualities to their advantage. It arises the need for an ongoing dialogue between marketing processes and its translation into the physical world, the design. The system generates multiple perceptions to be integrated into a body which is to be understood as unitary. As a system, the Mall is inserted into the contemporary paradigm, creating dual realities that are not exclusive and are reactions of uncertainty that the system be properly designed at all levels, faced with their ability to self-regulate. Likewise, considering the visitor, the customer, like the quantum spectator who interacts with the system permanently. Moreover, a complex system confronts us with the Commercial mix, the effective location of parts in order to relate to the body and its importance in the architecture we are conceiving. Unpredictable architecture, which stands as the challenge of the operation and the designer. Design that becomes the tool of the system to create success for the overall operation. The discussion of the styling is merely the result of analysis that also seeks the success of the system, i.e. the styling should send the right message for the environment to ensure its survival. Sixth, the idea of negotiation as an architecture project, a mechanism inherent to the status of the proposed system. The project solution is never evident at the Shopping Center because of the unpredictability of the process itself. It can only be the fruit of the commitment of all stakeholders to achieve the objective of the operation. This is achieved from the balance of interests, of commercial and design. A commitment to negotiation and a negotiation linked to coordination. The pursuit of stability is key, as instability is always present and constantly requires strategies to build the object you are configuring. Seventh, proposes space-time itself as a circumstance that determines and structures the perception of the Mall in a singular way. We introduce concepts as chronotope and paradox to help us place the relationship between time and space within the Mall in the context of shopping. A consequence of the parallel flow of historical time - the time outside - and the time inside the Mall, the big shopping center formula is precisely that of having the feeling of timelessness in the space. The social triumph of the mall is the ability to resolve in space and in time all postmodern paradoxes and, beyond that, of contemporary man, condensing into a small space and time an enormous amount of cultural symbols, often contradictory, but they attract the practice of consumerism. Eighth, global level. Globalization which doesn’t ignore the local level. Architecture that is inserted into the dynamics of a global economy, reflects the contradictions that it imposes, mainly in the processes of inclusion and exclusion. Inclusion and exclusion affect the debate of the local level, which the Mall must incorporate as an unavoidable tool of recognition. The eight fundamental principles, when applied as a whole, confirm that the built heritage, which corresponds to the general Mall idea, can be presented as a cohesive conceptual whole. This becomes part of a coherent architectural family, whose functional structures are able to be established. The Third chapter presents in a detailed way the figure of the architect Victor Gruen, recognized as the creator of the modern Mall. Studying his professional experience, it is shown how the different keys analyzed in previous chapters are appearing in a natural way. "Victor Gruen may well have been the most influential architect of the twentieth century." Malcolm Gladwell. The Terrazo Jungle. Fifty Years Ago, The Mall Was Born. America Never Would Be The Same. 2004. In The New Yorker. He was a complex, troubled man and the paradoxes along his career were notable. Nevertheless, always he appeared as a straight man. Garret Eckbo, the recognized landscape painter and collaborator of Gruen was astonished how Gruen had been capable of combining comity and humanity in this career of rates, into that the American commercialization turned, Johnson, in 1962, weighting many Gruen's skills demonstrated that he was not sure if anyone of them, architects artists, had been capable of doing what Gruen did. He goes beyond just the creation of a beautiful building. In playing on people and suggesting what they ought to do, he is a master. (…) his architecture is clean - hardly architecture, no flights of fancy. But when you get hold of its complexity, you've got something beyond the design... You can't say there's someone like him. Architecture is lucky to have him as an architect." Philip Johnson. Article in Fortune Review. 1962. The Document of the thesis closes with Gruen's vision of realizing a tour through the different chapters of his essential book, Shopping towns USA: The Planning of Shopping Centers. It’s mere index turns out to be a monument to the process of the gestation of the Mall. The book, simply acted in its basic structure as a silent witness, as the canonical reference for the contemporary Malls. The Fourth Chapter of the Document of the thesis is a recapitulation of the previous work, which synthesizes the concepts of function and style related to the Shopping Center, and clearly defines how they are defined so we can conclude that we have found an architectural new type in the panorama of the architectural discipline. Therefore, the Conclusion of the thesis integrates this development in a theoretical body of references that relate to an architectural specific and particular type, which receives the singularity of the Shopping Center as an architectural independent phenomenon as it has tried to demonstrate from the beginning of the work. To conclude, as a result of the integrative process and the development of the theoretical body of references, the essential characteristics of the order and concept of the architectural typology form the existence of a new architecture; architecture never before defined as such, in the theoretical typology of the discipline. A theoretical typology for a new architecture is proposed throughout the discussed research and forms a conclusion of the different parameters that have been analysed. As a building complex, from the study of the essential characteristics and of the perceptible constants, the typology is more clearly defined and thus, becomes a useful tool and precedent for the consideration of the discipline. The thesis then justifies how the building complex known as Shopping Center constitutes a new type of architectural typology.

A onerosidade excessiva na revisão e extinção dos contratos: a concorrência na aplicação da regra dos arts. 317 e 478 do código civil vigente

A presente dissertação tem como tema central a onerosidade excessiva na revisão e extinção dos contratos no direito civil brasileiro. Ela aborda as hipóteses de rompimento do princípio do equilíbrio econômico contratual na fase de execução dos contratos em virtude da superveniência de fatos extraordinários e imprevisíveis que interrompem sua originária relação de equivalência. O presente estudo divide-se em seis grandes partes. Em primeiro lugar, fazem-se necessárias uma introdução e uma descrição da problemática relacionada ao tema. Em seguida, apresenta-se a origem histórica da revisão e da extinção contratual a partir do exame da cláusula rebus sic stantibus. Feito isso, são relatadas as teorias que as fundamentam pela doutrina e pela jurisprudência antes do advento do texto legal expresso que trata da matéria. Concluída essa fase histórica, analisa-se o direito positivo brasileiro vigente, primeiramente, por questões cronológicas, a revisão por onerosidade excessiva no Código de Defesa do Consumidor. Posteriormente, as disposições legais inseridas no Código Civil que possibilitam a revisão e resolução dos contratos por onerosidade excessiva, com uma análise dogmática dos pressupostos positivos e negativos necessários à aplicação dos arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil. Em seguida, o estudo procura analisar algumas questões pontuais relacionadas à aplicação dos dois artigos, tais como: (i) quem tem legitimidade e interesse para requerer a revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; (ii) qual é o papel do juiz na revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; e (iii) se há concorrência na aplicação desses artigos ou deve ser observado um procedimento sequencial em atenção ao princípio da preservação dos contratos. Finalmente, o trabalho apresenta breve síntese e conclusões.

Apontamentos críticos à distribuição dinâmica do ônus da prova

O ônus da prova tem sido tradicionalmente distribuído no processo civil brasileiro segundo disposições legais prévias, contidas em geral no artigo 333 do Código de Processo Civil e que em geral seguem os brocados jurídicos onus probandi incumbit ei qui allegat, probatio incumbit asserenti e semper necessitas probandi incumbit illi quit agit. Nos últimos anos, no entanto, tem crescido na doutrina e na jurisprudência a tendência de atribuir o onus probandi à parte que supostamente tem mais facilidade em produzir a prova nos autos, independentemente da distribuição predeterminada pela lei. A inspiração para esta mudança vem da teoria argentina das cargas probatórias dinâmicas, introduzida pelo juiz Jorge Peyrano e que teria suas raízes, supostamente, no trabalho de Jeremy Bentham. O projeto de um novo Código de Processo Civil, que está sendo discutido no Congresso Nacional, muito provavelmente incluirá disposição autorizado expressamente que o juiz desloque o ônus da prova de uma parte para a outra quando entender que esta última tem melhores condições de produzí-la. Os riscos invocados contra esta teoria são o aumento da insegurança jurídica, da possibilidade de arbitrariedade do julgador e da dificuldade de estabelecer previsões sobre sucesso processual, impedindo que as partes possam tomar as melhores decisões sobre como se portar antes e durante um eventual processo. Também há crítica contra o enfraquecimento da imparcialidade do juiz, o que, segundo os defensores da teoria, não ocorreria. Uma análise dos argumentos contra e a favor da teoria do ônus dinâmico da prova, dos instrumentos já existentes no direito brasileiro para os problemas que esta teoria vida atacar, e das novas disposições legais a serem em breve introduzidas demonstra que existe uma linha tênue a ser traçada e seguida para que se atinjam os benefícios pretendidos, sem cair em novos problemas. É importante adotar e interpretar as novas normas processuais cuidadosa e atenciosamente, de modo a evitar prejuízo a garantias básicas dos jurisdicionados.

Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes. OSW Study 10/2014

The goal of this publication is to attempt to assess the thirteen years (2001- -2014) of the West’s military presence in the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia, closely associated with the ISAF and OEF-A (Operation Enduring Freedom – Afghanistan) missions in Afghanistan. There will also be an analysis of the actual challenges for the region’s stability after 2014. The current and future security architecture in Central Asia will also be looked at closely, as will the actual capabilities to counteract the most serious threats within its framework. The need to separately handle the security system in Central Asia and security as such is dictated by the particularities of political situation in the region, the key mechanism of which is geopolitics understood as global superpower rivalry for influence with a secondary or even instrumental role of the five regional states, while ignoring their internal problems. Such an approach is especially present in Russia’s perception of Central Asia, as it views security issues in geopolitical categories. Because of this, security analysis in the Central Asian region requires a broader geopolitical context, which was taken into account in this publication. The first part investigates the impact of the Western (primarily US) military and political presence on the region’s geopolitical architecture between 2001 and 2014. The second chapter is an attempt to take an objective look at the real challenges to regional security after the withdrawal of the coalition forces from Afghanistan, while the third chapter is dedicated to analysing the probable course of events in the security dimension following 2014. The accuracy of predictions time-wise included in the below publication does not exceed three to five years due to the dynamic developments in Central Asia and its immediate vicinity (the former Soviet Union, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran), and because of the large degree of unpredictability of policies of one of the key regional actors – Russia (both in the terms of its activity on the international arena, and its internal developments).

Aplicação de técnicas de detecção de apoptose versus proliferação celular no estudo do mastocitoma canino

A apoptose é um mecanismo de morte celular programada que ocorre naturalmente nos tecidos. Alterações neste mecanismo podem resultar na formação de neoplasias. O mastocitoma é uma das neoplasias cutâneas mais frequente em canídeos. O fator de prognóstico mais utilizado é o grau histológico. Porém, devido à imprevisibilidade desta neoplasia é necessário um melhor conhecimento do comportamento da mesma para se melhorarem competências em oncologia. Neste projeto foram estudados 23 amostras de mastocitomas caninos de variadas idades, raça e sexo, que foram submetidas à técnica de imunohistoquímica de modo a analisar a expressão de dois marcadores pró-apoptóticos (TUNEL e Bax), um marcador antiapoptótico (Bcl-2) e um marcador proliferativo (Ki-67). A expressão de TUNEL, Bcl-2 e Ki-67 aumentou do grau I para o grau III do mastocitoma e a de Bax diminuiu. Houve também uma diminuição na expressão de Bax e Bcl-2 no mastocitomas de grau II e um ligeiro aumento na expressão de Ki-67 na mesma classe tumoral. Observou-se assim maior atividade anti-apoptótica e aumento da proliferação celular, associados a um ao prolongamento na sobrevivência das células neoplásicas e, consequentemente, a um pior prognóstico, no grau de malignidade mais severo o grau III.

O consumidor envergonhado: uma investigação das relações entre o sentimento de vergonha e os significados do consumo

O estudo das emoções no consumo é fundamental para a expansão do conhecimento da área de marketing. Pesquisadores de consumo de múltiplas tendências já perceberam a importância de se compreender mais profundamente os fenômenos emocionais associados ao consumo. Esta tese apresenta uma análise das relações entre o sentimento de vergonha e os significados de consumo. Utilizei uma abordagem de orientação sociológica, focada nas relações entre o indivíduo e o grupo na construção de seus sentimentos. Para poder penetrar no mundo dos sentimentos vividos pelos indivíduos, adotei uma perspectiva interpretativa para a pesquisa. Como conseqüência direta de minha opção epistemológica, foi necessária a utilização de uma abordagem metodológica capaz de alcançar os conjuntos de significados subjetivos dos indivíduos organizados dentro de um contexto social. Essencialmente, ficou demonstrado que o interacionismo interpretativo (DENZIN, 1989) ofereceu uma solução útil e consistente para os problemas de análise dos volumosos dados resultantes da abordagem qualitativa. A utilização do interacionismo interpretativo permitiu que eu permanecesse totalmente focado no fenômeno sob estudo devido às características progressivas (step-like) da análise. Além disso, a abordagem adotada tornou possível o acesso às perspectivas dos participantes através de suas linguagens, atitudes e pensamentos. Como resultado, obtive uma interpretação mais rica e completa das relações de consumo que envolvem a vergonha. Foram construídos três casos que representam de forma abrangente as entrevistas capturadas. Estes três casos ofereceram indicações suficientes para a discussão acerca dos principais pontos levantados. Ficou claro que a vergonha pode agir de maneira a constituir e modificar o significado de consumo de bens e serviços e alterar a avaliação do consumidor com relação a estes. Além disso, o estudo da vergonha pode ter conseqüências práticas para o marketing uma vez que este sentimento está relacionado ao estímulo ou desestímulo do consumo, além de surgir como resposta para algumas experiências de consumo.

Countering cooperative effects in protease inhibitors using constrained b-strand-mimicking templates in focused combinatorial libraries

A major problem in de novo design of enzyme inhibitors is the unpredictability of the induced fit, with the shape of both ligand and enzyme changing cooperatively and unpredictably in response to subtle structural changes within a ligand. We have investigated the possibility of dampening the induced fit by using a constrained template as a replacement for adjoining segments of a ligand. The template preorganizes the ligand structure, thereby organizing the local enzyme environment. To test this approach, we used templates consisting of constrained cyclic tripeptides, formed through side chain to main chain linkages, as structural mimics of the protease-bound extended beta-strand conformation of three adjoining amino acid residues at the N- or C-terminal sides of the scissile bond of substrates. The macrocyclic templates were derivatized to a range of 30 structurally diverse molecules via focused combinatorial variation of nonpeptidic appendages incorporating a hydroxyethylamine transition-state isostere. Most compounds in the library were potent inhibitors of the test protease (HIV-1 protease). Comparison of crystal structures for five protease-inhibitor complexes containing an N-terminal macrocycle and three protease-inhibitor complexes containing a C-terminal macrocycle establishes that the macrocycles fix their surrounding enzyme environment, thereby permitting independent variation of acyclic inhibitor components with only local disturbances to the protease. In this way, the location in the protease of various acyclic fragments on either side of the macrocyclic template can be accurately predicted. This type of templating strategy minimizes the problem of induced fit, reducing unpredictable cooperative effects in one inhibitor region caused by changes to adjacent enzyme-inhibitor interactions. This idea might be exploited in template-based approaches to inhibitors of other proteases, where a beta-strand mimetic is also required for recognition, and also other protein-binding ligands where different templates may be more appropriate.

Relations between social support, appraisal and coping and both positive and negative outcomes for children of a parent with multiple sclerosis and comparisons with children of healthy parents

Objective: To examine adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis within a stress and coping framework and compare them with those who have 'healthy' parents. Subjects: A total of 193 participants between 10 and 25 years completed questionnaires; 48 youngsters who had a parent with multiple sclerosis and 145 youngsters who reported that they did not have a parent with an illness or disability. Method: A questionnaire survey methodology was used. Variable sets included caregiving context (e.g. additional parental illness, family responsibilities, parental functional impairment, choice in helping), social support (network size, satisfaction), stress appraisal, coping (problem solving, seeking support, acceptance, wishful thinking, denial), and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, benefits) and negative (distress, health) adjustment outcomes. Results: Caregiving context variables significantly correlated with poorer adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis included additional parental illness, higher family responsibilities, parental functional impairment and unpredictability of the parent's multiple sclerosis, and less choice in helping. As predicted, better adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis was related to higher levels of social support, lower stress appraisals, greater reliance on approach coping strategies (problem solving, seeking support and acceptance) and less reliance on avoidant coping (wishful thinking and denial). Compared with children of 'healthy' parents, children of a parent with multiple sclerosis reported greater family responsibilities, less reliance on problem solving and seeking social support coping, higher somatization and lower life satisfaction and positive affect. Conclusions: Findings delineate the key impacts of young caregiving and support a stress and coping model of adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis.

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.

Establishing a framework for dynamic risk management in 'intelligent' aero-engine control

The behaviour of control functions in safety critical software systems is typically bounded to prevent the occurrence of known system level hazards. These bounds are typically derived through safety analyses and can be implemented through the use of necessary design features. However, the unpredictability of real world problems can result in changes in the operating context that may invalidate the behavioural bounds themselves, for example, unexpected hazardous operating contexts as a result of failures or degradation. For highly complex problems it may be infeasible to determine the precise desired behavioural bounds of a function that addresses or minimises risk for hazardous operation cases prior to deployment. This paper presents an overview of the safety challenges associated with such a problem and how such problems might be addressed. A self-management framework is proposed that performs on-line risk management. The features of the framework are shown in context of employing intelligent adaptive controllers operating within complex and highly dynamic problem domains such as Gas-Turbine Aero Engine control. Safety assurance arguments enabled by the framework necessary for certification are also outlined.

Noise may be music to bionic ears

Bionic ear implants could be improved by introducing noise to mimic biological unpredictability.

Strategy making process, its content and context in small professional football clubs

This thesis examines the phenomenon of strategy. Making as practised by small professional football clubs. The study was undertaken because football clubs were perceived to have problems with strategy-making and because it was believed that the specific circumstances of football clubs could be outside the range of views covered by conventional views of strategy-making. The characteristics of the club environment are its uncertainty and unpredictability, simultaneous competition and co--operation, strong regulations, and a not-for-profit orientation. Small clubs in particular face a constant struggle for financial viability and survival, due in part to split business and playing objectives. The study was designed to establish the extent and nature of the difficulties clubs experience with a view to preparing the way for creating practical guidance on ways to overcome them. Clearly, in order to survive in the long term, small professional football clubs require very effective strategic decisions. This study has addressed this issue by inquiring into the nature of strategy making for these organisations with the objective to establish the general direction in which the football clubs in question should be moving. As a result, the main research question to guide this investigation was determined as: Why do small professional football clubs have difficulties making strategies. The investigation was based on an analysis the concept of strategy and its elements, the strategic vision and objectives, the process by which strategic action comes about, the strategic action itself, and the context within which this action occurs. Data has been collected, analysed and interpreted in relation to each of these elements. Together with a wide variety of published material, 20 small football clubs have been sampled and personal interviews were conducted with board members of those clubs. The findings indicate that small football clubs do indeed experience considerable difficulties in making strategies, the reasons for which lie both in the characteristics of their competitive environment and their approaches to strategy-making. The competitive environment is characterised by a cartel-like structure with a high degree of regulation, high levels of uncertainty, little control over the core product or the production process, short-term business cycles and a close geographical link between a club with its local market. The management of clubs is characterised by the need to balance conflicting sporting and business objectives. Formal planning techniques are of little use in the small football club context as decision-making processes have a strong political character and the development of novel strategies is hindered by a strong conservative, industry paradigm and a lack of financial and managerial resources. It is concluded that there is no simple advice to be given to clubs, as they must re-examine the relationship between their playing and business objectives to create a unified and workable approach.

State-of-the-art of ‘Lean’ in the aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul industry

The increasing need for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) organizations to meet customers' demands in quality and reduced lead times is key to its survival within the aviation industry. Furthermore, with the unpredictability in the global market and difficulties with forecasting characteristic of the MRO industry there is an increased need for the reevaluation of the operation models of organizations within this sector. However, severe economic turmoil and ever-increasing global competition introduce the opportunity for the adoption of a resilient, tried, and tested business operation model such as 'Lean'. In order to understand this concept, its long-term viability, and its application within the aerospace MRO sector fully, this paper presents the state-of-the-art in terms of the adoption of Lean within the MRO industry by carrying out a systematic review of the literature. This paper establishes the common perception of Lean by the MRO industry and the measurable progress that has been made on the subject. Some issues and challenges are also highlighted including the misconceptions that arise from the direct transference of the perception of Lean from other industrial sectors into the aerospace MRO industry. The 'enablers and inhibitors' of Lean within the aviation industry are also discussed. This paper exposes the scarcity of the literature and the general lagging behind of the industry to the adoption of the Lean paradigm and thus highlights areas where further research is required. © 2011 Authors.

Global trends in myopia management attitudes and strategies in clinical practice

PURPOSE: Myopia is a global public health issue; however, no information exists as to how potential myopia retardation strategies are being adopted globally. METHODS: A self-administrated, internet-based questionnaire was distributed in six languages, through professional bodies to eye care practitioners globally. The questions examined: awareness of increasing myopia prevalence, perceived efficacy and adoption of available strategies, and reasons for not adopting specific strategies. RESULTS: Of the 971 respondents, concern was higher (median 9/10) in Asia than in any other continent (7/10, p<0.001) and they considered themselves more active in implementing myopia control strategies (8/10) than Australasia and Europe (7/10), with North (4/10) and South America (5/10) being least proactive (p<0.001). Orthokeratology was perceived to be the most effective method of myopia control, followed by increased time outdoors and pharmaceutical approaches, with under-correction and single vision spectacles felt to be the least effective (p<0.05). Although significant intra-regional differences existed, overall most practitioners 67.5 (±37.8)% prescribed single vision spectacles or contact lenses as the primary mode of correction for myopic patients. The main justifications for their reluctance to prescribe alternatives to single vision refractive corrections were increased cost (35.6%), inadequate information (33.3%) and the unpredictability of outcomes (28.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of practitioners' awareness of the efficacy of myopia control techniques, the vast majority still prescribe single vision interventions to young myopes. In view of the increasing prevalence of myopia and existing evidence for interventions to slow myopia progression, clear guidelines for myopia management need to be established.