Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Fine Mapping of qroot-yield-1.06, a QTL for Root, Plant Vigor and Yield in Maize

Root-yield-1.06 is a major QTL affecting root system architecture (RSA) and other agronomic traits in maize. The effect of this QTL has been evaluated with the development of near isogenic lines (NILs) differing at the QTL position. The objective of this study was to fine map qroot-yield-1.06 by marker-assisted searching for chromosome recombinants in the QTL interval and concurrent root phenotyping in both controlled and field conditions, through successive generations. Complementary approaches such as QTL meta-analysis and RNA-seq were deployed in order to help prioritizing candidate genes within the QTL target region. Using a selected group of genotypes, field based root analysis by ‘shovelomics’ enabled to accurately collect RSA information of adult maize plants. Shovelomics combined with software-assisted root imaging analysis proved to be an informative and relatively highly automated phenotyping protocol. A QTL interval mapping was conducted using a segregating population at the seedling stage grown in controlled environment. Results enabled to narrow down the QTL interval and to identify new polymorphic markers for MAS in field experiments. A collection of homozygous recombinant NILs was developed by screening segregating populations with markers flanking qroot-yield-1.06. A first set of lines from this collection was phenotyped based on the adapted shovelomics protocol. QTL analysis based on these data highlighted an interval of 1.3 Mb as completely linked with the target QTL but, a larger safer interval of 4.1 Mb was selected for further investigations. QTL meta-analysis allows to synthetize information on root QTLs and two mQTLs were identified in the qroot-yield-1.06 interval. Trascriptomics analysis based on RNA-seq data of the two contrasting QTL-NILs, confirmed alternative haplotypes at chromosome bin 1.06. qroot-yield-1.06 has now been delimited to a 4.1-Mb interval, and thanks to the availability of additional untested homozygous recombinant NILs, the potentially achievable mapping resolution at qroot-yield-1.06 is c. 50 kb.

Psychological Data from an Exploration of the Rapport / Synchrony Interplay Using Motion Energy Analysis

These data result from an investigation examining the interplay between dyadic rapport and consequential behavior-mirroring. Participants responded to a variety of interpersonally-focused pretest measures prior to their engagement in videotaped interdependent tasks (coded for interactional synchrony using Motion Energy Analysis [17,18]). A post-task evaluation of rapport and other related constructs followed each exchange. Four studies shared these same dependent measures, but asked distinct questions: Study 1 (Ndyad = 38) explored the influence of perceived responsibility and gender-specificity of the task; Study 2 (Ndyad = 51) focused on dyad sex-makeup; Studies 3 (Ndyad = 41) and 4 (Ndyad = 63) examined cognitive load impacts on the interactions. Versions of the data are structured with both individual and dyad as the unit of analysis. Our data possess strong reuse potential for theorists interested in dyadic processes and are especially pertinent to questions about dyad agreement and interpersonal perception / behavior association relationships.

Facies analysis on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ~116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occurring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global d180 and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.

Learning kinds for students of technical high school : An analysis from the David Ausubel's theory

This article presents the findings of a field research, not experimental, observational, correlating, basic, of mixed data, micro sociologic, leading to a study of surveys.The object of study is to find learning kinds, and the unit of analysis were 529 high school students between 16 and 21 years old. Its purpose is to understand the impact of learning by rote, guided, self learned and meaningful learning and its achievement degree besides the learning outcomes of differentiated curriculum based on David Ausubel's thoughts, associated with different economic specialties (MINEDUC, 1998) where the population of the study is trained. To collect data, the test TADA - DO2 was used, this test has a reliability index of 0.911 according to Cronbach. From the hits it can be stated from the null hypothesis that there is a significant association (a = 0,05) between the learning kinds and the learning expected of differentiated training plan for both, male and female. It is complex to state that the training of the middle-level technicians leads to a successful employment.

Learning kinds for students of technical high school : An analysis from the David Ausubel's theory

This article presents the findings of a field research, not experimental, observational, correlating, basic, of mixed data, micro sociologic, leading to a study of surveys.The object of study is to find learning kinds, and the unit of analysis were 529 high school students between 16 and 21 years old. Its purpose is to understand the impact of learning by rote, guided, self learned and meaningful learning and its achievement degree besides the learning outcomes of differentiated curriculum based on David Ausubel's thoughts, associated with different economic specialties (MINEDUC, 1998) where the population of the study is trained. To collect data, the test TADA - DO2 was used, this test has a reliability index of 0.911 according to Cronbach. From the hits it can be stated from the null hypothesis that there is a significant association (a = 0,05) between the learning kinds and the learning expected of differentiated training plan for both, male and female. It is complex to state that the training of the middle-level technicians leads to a successful employment.

Learning kinds for students of technical high school : An analysis from the David Ausubel's theory

This article presents the findings of a field research, not experimental, observational, correlating, basic, of mixed data, micro sociologic, leading to a study of surveys.The object of study is to find learning kinds, and the unit of analysis were 529 high school students between 16 and 21 years old. Its purpose is to understand the impact of learning by rote, guided, self learned and meaningful learning and its achievement degree besides the learning outcomes of differentiated curriculum based on David Ausubel's thoughts, associated with different economic specialties (MINEDUC, 1998) where the population of the study is trained. To collect data, the test TADA - DO2 was used, this test has a reliability index of 0.911 according to Cronbach. From the hits it can be stated from the null hypothesis that there is a significant association (a = 0,05) between the learning kinds and the learning expected of differentiated training plan for both, male and female. It is complex to state that the training of the middle-level technicians leads to a successful employment.

Analysis of elements at DSDP Holes 70-506 and 70-509B

Sediments in the area of the Galapagos hydrothermal mounds are divided into two major categories. The first group, pelagic sediments, are nannofossil oozes with varying amounts of siliceous microfossils. The second group are hydrothermal sediments consisting of manganese-oxide crust fragments and green nontronitic clay granules. Hydrothermal sediments occur only in the upper half to two-thirds of the cores and are interbedded and mixed with pelagic sediments. Petrologic evidence indicates that hydrothermal nontronite forms as both a primary precipitate and as a replacement mineral of pre-existing pelagic sediment and hydrothermal manganese-oxide crust fragments. In addition, physical evidence supports chemical equations indicating that the pelagic sediments are being dissolved by hydrothermal solutions. The formation of hydrothermal nontronite is not merely confined to the surface of mounds, but also occurs at depth within their immediate area; hydrothermal nontronite is very likely forming today. Geologically speaking, the mounds and their hydrothermal sediments form almost instantaneously. The Galapagos mounds area is a unique one in the ocean basins, where pelagic sediments can be diagenetically transformed, dissolved, and replaced, possibly within a matter of years.

Desarrollo de un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales basado en las Directrices del Comité de Basilea

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal diseñar un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales (MGRO) según las Directrices de los Acuerdos II y III del Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (CSBB-BPI). Se considera importante realizar un estudio sobre este tema dado que son los riesgos operacionales (OpR) los responsables en gran medida de las últimas crisis financieras mundiales y por la dificultad para detectarlos en las organizaciones. Se ha planteado un modelo de gestión subdividido en dos vías de influencias. La primera acoge el paradigma holístico en el que se considera que hay múltiples maneras de percibir un proceso cíclico, así como las herramientas para observar, conocer y entender el objeto o sujeto percibido. La segunda vía la representa el paradigma totalizante, en el que se obtienen datos tanto cualitativos como cuantitativos, los cuales son complementarios entre si. Por otra parte, este trabajo plantea el diseño de un programa informático de OpR Cualitativo, que ha sido diseñado para determinar la raíz de los riesgos en las organizaciones y su Valor en Riesgo Operacional (OpVaR) basado en el método del indicador básico. Aplicando el ciclo holístico al caso de estudio, se obtuvo el siguiente diseño de investigación: no experimental, univariable, transversal descriptiva, contemporánea, retrospectiva, de fuente mixta, cualitativa (fenomenológica y etnográfica) y cuantitativa (descriptiva y analítica). La toma de decisiones y recolección de información se realizó en dos fases en la unidad de estudio. En la primera se tomó en cuenta la totalidad de la empresa Corpoelec-EDELCA, en la que se presentó un universo estadístico de 4271 personas, una población de 2390 personas y una unidad de muestreo de 87 personas. Se repitió el proceso en una segunda fase, para la Central Hidroeléctrica Simón Bolívar, y se determinó un segundo universo estadístico de 300 trabajadores, una población de 191 personas y una muestra de 58 profesionales. Como fuentes de recolección de información se utilizaron fuentes primarias y secundarias. Para recabar la información primaria se realizaron observaciones directas, dos encuestas para detectar las áreas y procesos con mayor nivel de riesgos y se diseñó un cuestionario combinado con otra encuesta (ad hoc) para establecer las estimaciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas operacionales. La información de fuentes secundarias se extrajo de las bases de datos de Corpoelec-EDELCA, de la IEA, del Banco Mundial, del CSBB-BPI, de la UPM y de la UC at Berkeley, entre otras. Se establecieron las distribuciones de frecuencia y de severidad de pérdidas operacionales como las variables independientes y el OpVaR como la variable dependiente. No se realizó ningún tipo de seguimiento o control a las variables bajo análisis, ya que se consideraron estas para un instante especifico y solo se determinan con la finalidad de establecer la existencia y valoración puntual de los OpR en la unidad de estudio. El análisis cualitativo planteado en el MGRO, permitió detectar que en la unidad de investigación, el 67% de los OpR detectados provienen de dos fuentes principales: procesos (32%) y eventos externos (35%). Adicionalmente, la validación del MGRO en Corpoelec-EDELCA, permitió detectar que el 63% de los OpR en la organización provienen de tres categorías principales, siendo los fraudes externos los presentes con mayor regularidad y severidad de pérdidas en la organización. La exposición al riesgo se determinó fundamentándose en la adaptación del concepto de OpVaR que generalmente se utiliza para series temporales y que en el caso de estudio presenta la primicia de aplicarlo a datos cualitativos transformados con la escala Likert. La posibilidad de utilizar distribuciones de probabilidad típicas para datos cuantitativos en distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas con datos de origen cualitativo fueron analizadas. Para el 64% de los OpR estudiados se obtuvo que la frecuencia tiene un comportamiento semejante al de la distribución de probabilidad de Poisson y en un 55% de los casos para la severidad de pérdidas se obtuvo a las log-normal como las distribuciones de probabilidad más comunes, con lo que se concluyó que los enfoques sugeridos por el BCBS-BIS para series de tiempo son aplicables a los datos cualitativos. Obtenidas las distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas, se convolucionaron estas implementando el método de Montecarlo, con lo que se obtuvieron los enfoques de distribuciones de pérdidas (LDA) para cada uno de los OpR. El OpVaR se dedujo como lo sugiere el CSBB-BPI del percentil 99,9 o 99% de cada una de las LDA, obteniéndose que los OpR presentan un comportamiento similar al sistema financiero, resultando como los de mayor peligrosidad los que se ubican con baja frecuencia y alto impacto, por su dificultad para ser detectados y monitoreados. Finalmente, se considera que el MGRO permitirá a los agentes del mercado y sus grupos de interés conocer con efectividad, fiabilidad y eficiencia el status de sus entidades, lo que reducirá la incertidumbre de sus inversiones y les permitirá establecer una nueva cultura de gestión en sus organizaciones. ABSTRACT This research has as main objective the design of a Model for Operational Risk Management (MORM) according to the guidelines of Accords II and III of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BCBS- BIS). It is considered important to conduct a study on this issue since operational risks (OpR) are largely responsible for the recent world financial crisis and due to the difficulty in detecting them in organizations. A management model has been designed which is divided into two way of influences. The first supports the holistic paradigm in which it is considered that there are multiple ways of perceiving a cyclical process and contains the tools to observe, know and understand the subject or object perceived. The second way is the totalizing paradigm, in which both qualitative and quantitative data are obtained, which are complementary to each other. Moreover, this paper presents the design of qualitative OpR software which is designed to determine the root of risks in organizations and their Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) based on the basic indicator approach. Applying the holistic cycle to the case study, the following research design was obtained: non- experimental, univariate, descriptive cross-sectional, contemporary, retrospective, mixed-source, qualitative (phenomenological and ethnographic) and quantitative (descriptive and analytical). Decision making and data collection was conducted in two phases in the study unit. The first took into account the totality of the Corpoelec-EDELCA company, which presented a statistical universe of 4271 individuals, a population of 2390 individuals and a sampling unit of 87 individuals. The process was repeated in a second phase to the Simon Bolivar Hydroelectric Power Plant, and a second statistical universe of 300 workers, a population of 191 people and a sample of 58 professionals was determined. As sources of information gathering primary and secondary sources were used. To obtain the primary information direct observations were conducted and two surveys to identify the areas and processes with higher risks were designed. A questionnaire was combined with an ad hoc survey to establish estimates of frequency and severity of operational losses was also considered. The secondary information was extracted from the databases of Corpoelec-EDELCA, IEA, the World Bank, the BCBS-BIS, UPM and UC at Berkeley, among others. The operational loss frequency distributions and the operational loss severity distributions were established as the independent variables and OpVaR as the dependent variable. No monitoring or control of the variables under analysis was performed, as these were considered for a specific time and are determined only for the purpose of establishing the existence and timely assessment of the OpR in the study unit. Qualitative analysis raised in the MORM made it possible to detect that in the research unit, 67% of detected OpR come from two main sources: external processes (32%) and external events (35%). Additionally, validation of the MORM in Corpoelec-EDELCA, enabled to estimate that 63% of OpR in the organization come from three main categories, with external fraud being present more regularly and greater severity of losses in the organization. Risk exposure is determined basing on adapting the concept of OpVaR generally used for time series and in the case study it presents the advantage of applying it to qualitative data transformed with the Likert scale. The possibility of using typical probability distributions for quantitative data in loss frequency and loss severity distributions with data of qualitative origin were analyzed. For the 64% of OpR studied it was found that the frequency has a similar behavior to that of the Poisson probability distribution and 55% of the cases for loss severity it was found that the log-normal were the most common probability distributions. It was concluded that the approach suggested by the BCBS-BIS for time series can be applied to qualitative data. Once obtained the distributions of loss frequency and severity have been obtained they were subjected to convolution implementing the Monte Carlo method. Thus the loss distribution approaches (LDA) were obtained for each of the OpR. The OpVaR was derived as suggested by the BCBS-BIS 99.9 percentile or 99% of each of the LDA. It was determined that the OpR exhibits a similar behavior to the financial system, being the most dangerous those with low frequency and high impact for their difficulty in being detected and monitored. Finally, it is considered that the MORM will allows market players and their stakeholders to know with effectiveness, efficiency and reliability the status of their entities, which will reduce the uncertainty of their investments and enable them to establish a new management culture in their organizations.

Un análisis del comportamiento de la demanda turística en España: aplicación con técnicas de cointegración

En este trabajo se analiza la relación entre la evolución de la demanda del conjunto de la economía española frente a la de los principales componentes de gasto turístico, así como el grado de dependencia respecto al comportamiento económico de los principales países emisores de turistas hacia España. Para investigar la existencia de una relación entre estas variables se explican las principales técnicas de cointegración, que en caso de detectar dicha vinculación permiten estimar modelos de corrección del error. En concreto, en el trabajo se evalúa el comportamiento de estas variables a través de test de raíces unitarias para poder desarrollar modelos que permitan detectar con mayor precisión estas relaciones.

Growth, convergence and trade: The services sector in India’s states

India’s success story in services is well documented at the national level, but similar literature does not exist for India’s states. In this paper, we bridge this gap in research by looking at India’s services growth at the sub-national level and in doing so, also challenge existing literature by arguing that this growth has positive implications for income distribution. We find that even as per capita income is not converging across India’s states, per capita services are; evidence is provided both in terms of traditional measures of sigma- and beta-convergence and more recent panel unit root tests. A more disaggregated analysis of services sectors reveals convergence in railways, public administration and financial services. Finally, a Jensen & Kletzer (2005) approach to determining tradability provides evidence of most services being “traded” across India’s states, suggesting the role of such trade in the services growth and convergence story.

FY ... unit cost report for the public community colleges of Illinois.

Description based on: 1982; title from cover.

Economic analysis: Missouri River Basin project.

"For administrative use only."

Annual analysis of decisions.

Report for 1937/30 covers period July 1937-Dec. 1939.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.