Compositional Data Analysis in Forensic Geoscience

Statistics are regularly used to make some form of comparison between trace evidence or deploy the exclusionary principle (Morgan and Bull, 2007) in forensic investigations. Trace evidence are routinely the results of particle size, chemical or modal analyses and as such constitute compositional data. The issue is that compositional data including percentages, parts per million etc. only carry relative information. This may be problematic where a comparison of percentages and other constraint/closed data is deemed a statistically valid and appropriate way to present trace evidence in a court of law. Notwithstanding an awareness of the existence of the constant sum problem since the seminal works of Pearson (1896) and Chayes (1960) and the introduction of the application of log-ratio techniques (Aitchison, 1986; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Egozcue, 2001; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Buccianti, 2011; Tolosana-Delgado and van den Boogaart, 2013) the problem that a constant sum destroys the potential independence of variances and covariances required for correlation regression analysis and empirical multivariate methods (principal component analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, canonical correlation) is all too often not acknowledged in the statistical treatment of trace evidence. Yet the need for a robust treatment of forensic trace evidence analyses is obvious. This research examines the issues and potential pitfalls for forensic investigators if the constant sum constraint is ignored in the analysis and presentation of forensic trace evidence. Forensic case studies involving particle size and mineral analyses as trace evidence are used to demonstrate the use of a compositional data approach using a centred log-ratio (clr) transformation and multivariate statistical analyses.

Unified overhead-aware schedulability analysis for slot-based task-splitting

Hard real- time multiprocessor scheduling has seen, in recent years, the flourishing of semi-partitioned scheduling algorithms. This category of scheduling schemes combines elements of partitioned and global scheduling for the purposes of achieving efficient utilization of the system’s processing resources with strong schedulability guarantees and with low dispatching overheads. The sub-class of slot-based “task-splitting” scheduling algorithms, in particular, offers very good trade-offs between schedulability guarantees (in the form of high utilization bounds) and the number of preemptions/migrations involved. However, so far there did not exist unified scheduling theory for such algorithms; each one was formulated in its own accompanying analysis. This article changes this fragmented landscape by formulating a more unified schedulability theory covering the two state-of-the-art slot-based semi-partitioned algorithms, S-EKG and NPS-F (both fixed job-priority based). This new theory is based on exact schedulability tests, thus also overcoming many sources of pessimism in existing analysis. In turn, since schedulability testing guides the task assignment under the schemes in consideration, we also formulate an improved task assignment procedure. As the other main contribution of this article, and as a response to the fact that many unrealistic assumptions, present in the original theory, tend to undermine the theoretical potential of such scheduling schemes, we identified and modelled into the new analysis all overheads incurred by the algorithms in consideration. The outcome is a new overhead-aware schedulability analysis that permits increased efficiency and reliability. The merits of this new theory are evaluated by an extensive set of experiments.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part I. Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC

The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.

Elemental analysis of New Zealand Nephrite Jade (pounamu) for forensic purposes

Pounamu (NZ jade), or nephrite, is a protected mineral in its natural form following the transfer of ownership back to Ngai Tahu under the Ngai Tahu (Pounamu Vesting) Act 1997. Any theft of nephrite is prosecutable under the Crimes Act 1961. Scientific evidence is essential in cases where origin is disputed. A robust method for discrimination of this material through the use of elemental analysis and compositional data analysis is required. Initial studies have characterised the variability within a given nephrite source. This has included investigation of both in situ outcrops and alluvial material. Methods for the discrimination of two geographically close nephrite sources are being developed. Key Words: forensic, jade, nephrite, laser ablation, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, multivariate analysis, elemental analysis, compositional data analysis

Implications for DNA identification arising from an analysis of Australian forensic databases

Previous analyses of Australian samples have suggested that populations of the same broad racial group (Caucasian, Asian, Aboriginal) tend to be genetically similar across states. This suggests that a single national Australian database for each such group may be feasible, which would greatly facilitate casework. We have investigated samples drawn from each of these groups in different Australian states, and have quantified the genetic homogeneity across states within each racial group in terms of the "coancestry coefficient" F(ST). In accord with earlier results, we find that F(ST) values, as estimated from these data, are very small for Caucasians and Asians, usually <0.5%. We find that "declared" Aborigines (which includes many with partly Aboriginal genetic heritage) are also genetically similar across states, although they display some differentiation from a "pure" Aboriginal population (almost entirely of Aboriginal genetic heritage).

An item response analysis of the motor and behavioral subscales of the unified Huntington's disease rating scale in huntington disease gene expansion carriers

Although the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) is widely used in the assessment of Huntington disease (HD), the ability of individual items to discriminate individual differences in motor or behavioral manifestations has not been extensively studied in HD gene expansion carriers without a motor-defined clinical diagnosis (ie, prodromal-HD or prHD). To elucidate the relationship between scores on individual motor and behavioral UHDRS items and total score for each subscale, a nonparametric item response analysis was performed on retrospective data from 2 multicenter longitudinal studies. Motor and behavioral assessments were supplied for 737 prHD individuals with data from 2114 visits (PREDICT-HD) and 686 HD individuals with data from 1482 visits (REGISTRY). Option characteristic curves were generated for UHDRS subscale items in relation to their subscale score. In prHD, overall severity of motor signs was low, and participants had scores of 2 or above on very few items. In HD, motor items that assessed ocular pursuit, saccade initiation, finger tapping, tandem walking, and to a lesser extent, saccade velocity, dysarthria, tongue protrusion, pronation/supination, Luria, bradykinesia, choreas, gait, and balance on the retropulsion test were found to discriminate individual differences across a broad range of motor severity. In prHD, depressed mood, anxiety, and irritable behavior demonstrated good discriminative properties. In HD, depressed mood demonstrated a good relationship with the overall behavioral score. These data suggest that at least some UHDRS items appear to have utility across a broad range of severity, although many items demonstrate problematic features.

Elusive development: the quest for a unified approach to development analysis and planning

Includes bibliography

Is characterizing the digital forensic facial reconstruction with hair necessary? A familiar assessors' analysis

Background: In the international scientific literature, there are few studies that emphasize the presence or absence of hair in forensic facial reconstructions. There are neither Brazilian studies concerning digital facial reconstructions without hair, nor research comparing recognition tests between digital facial reconstructions with hair and without hair. The miscegenation of Brazilian people is considerable. Brazilian people, and, in particular, Brazilian women, even if considered as Caucasoid, may present the hair in very different ways: curly, wavy or straight, blonde, red, brown or black, long or short, etc. For this reason, it is difficult to find a correct type of hair for facial reconstruction (unless, in real cases, some hair is recovered with the skeletal remains). Aims and methods: This study focuses on the performance of three different digital forensic facial reconstructions, without hair, of a Brazilian female subject (based on one international database and two Brazilian databases for soft facial-tissue thickness) and evaluates the digital forensic facial reconstructions comparing them to photographs of the target individual and nine other subjects, employing the recognition method. A total of 22 assessors participated in the recognition process; all of them were familiar with the 10 individuals who composed the face pool. Results and conclusions: The target subject was correctly recognized by 41% of the 22 examiners in the International Pattern, by 32% in the Brazilian Magnetic Resonance Pattern and by 32% in the Brazilian Fresh Cadavers Pattern. The facial reconstructions without hair were correctly recognized using the three databases of facial soft-tissue thickness. The observed results were higher than the results obtained using facial reconstructions with hair, from the same skull, which can indicate that it is better to not use hair, at least when there is no information concerning its characteristics. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Analysis of clinical forensic examination reports on sexually abused children]

Clinical forensic examinations of children suspected of having been sexually abused are increasingly part of the routine of medicolegal institutes. The findings collected from 2005 until 2007 at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Hanover Medical School were analysed retrospectively. Altogether, 91 children (74 females, 17 males, mean age 8.7 years) were examined. In 87.9% of the cases, the examination had been ordered by the police. In 73.6%, the victim knew the suspected perpetrator well or he was a family member. 40.7% of the children were seen within 72 hours after the alleged abuse. 12.1% of the children had extragenital lesions. In 27% of the victims, marked anogenital injuries were found, which were characteristic of sexual abuse in 9%. In 18 cases (20.2%), swabs were taken for spermatozoa detection. 3 of 17 vaginal smears showed positive test results for sperm up to 21 hours after the incident. No spermatozoa could be detected in 4 anal and 2 oral swabs as well as in one swab taken from the skin of the victim's thigh. In summary, the evaluation shows that early clinical forensic examination of children suspected of having been sexually abused is crucial to document evidence that is highly significant for the investigation and court proceedings. Often suspected sexual child abuse cannot be proved by medical findings alone. Of course, the absence of anogenital injuries does nor rule out sexual abuse.

Analysis of clinical forensic examination reports on sexual assault

Medical-forensic examination of sexual assault victims and alleged offenders is a common task of many forensic institutes. In the current study, the results from samples taken at the Institute of Legal Medicine, Hanover Medical School, during a period from 2005 to 2007 were retrospectively evaluated. In total, 292 victims (283 females and nine males) and 88 suspects were examined. At the time of the assault, 41.8% of the victims and 43.2% of the alleged perpetrators were under the influence of alcohol. Injuries were found in 84.9% of the victims and 39.8% of the suspects. Thirty victims (10.3%) reported having been choked or strangled. Cytology was performed in 218 victims. In 81 cases (38.0%), sperm could be detected in vaginal swabs up to 3 days post-assault. In seven (18.9%) out of 37 anal samples, evidence of sperm could be found 24 h post-assault. None of 22 oral samples was positive for sperm. Out of 301 sexual assault cases, 171 could be proved by means of medical-forensic examination. In summary, our evaluation shows that an early medical-forensic examination of both victim and suspect can secure numerous medical findings. Furthermore, persons intoxicated by alcohol, handicapped persons and persons with psychiatric disorders are more vulnerable to become a sexual assault victim.