Microeconomic instability and children's human capital accumulation: the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to father's income on child labor, school drop-outs and repetition rates in Brazil

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of economic instability. In particular, we study the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to father’s income on children’s human capital accumulation variables such as school drop-outs, repetition rates and domestic and non-domestic labor. Although, the problem of child labor in Brazil has declined greatly during the last decade, the number of children working is still substantial. The low levels of educational attainment in Brazil are also a main cause for concern. The large rotating panel data set used allows for the estimation of the impacts of changes in occupational and income status of fathers on changes in his child’s time allocation circumstances. The empirical analysis is restricted to families with fathers, mothers and at least one child between 10 and 15 years of age in the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the 1982-1999 period. We perform logistic regressions controlling for child characteristics (gender, age, if he/she is behind in school for age), parents characteristics (grade attainment and income) and time and location variables. The main variables analyzed are dynamic proxies of impulses and responses, namely: shocks to household head’s income and unemployment status, on the one hand and child’s probability of dropping out of school, of repeating a grade and of start working, on the other. The findings suggest that father’s income has a significant positive correlation with child’s dropping out of school and of repeating a grade. The findings do not suggest a significant relationship between a father’s becoming unemployed and a child entering the non-domestic labor market. However, the results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between a father becoming unemployed and a child beginning to work in domestic labor. There was also a positive correlation between father becoming unemployed and a child dropping out and repeating a grade. Both gender and age were highly significant with boys and older children being more likely to work, drop-out and repeat grades.

Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

The long-run properties of a dynamic Mirrlees' model with aggregate shocks

Nós abordamos a existência de distribuições estacionárias de promessas de utilidade em um modelo Mirrlees dinâmico quando o governo tem record keeping imperfeito e a economia é sujeita a choques agregados. Quando esses choques são iid, provamos a existência de um estado estacionário não degenerado e caracterizamos parcialmente as alocações estacionárias. Mostramos que a proporção do consumo agregado é invariante ao estado agregado. Quando os choques agregados apresentam persistência, porém, alocações eficientes apresentam dependência da história de choques e, em geral, uma distribuição invariante não existe.

Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach

This paper investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term structural comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external nance premium and the bank balance sheet channel produce large and persistent uctuations in in ation and economic activity accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. The central bank seems to incorporate developments in credit markets especially variations in credit spreads into its reaction function, as impulse-response exercises show the Selic rate is declining in response to wider credit spreads and a contraction in the volume of new loans. Counterfactual simulations also demonstrate that the credit channel ampli ed the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global nancial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed.

Job destruction and propagation of shocks

We develop and quantitatively implement a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market matching and endogenous deterllÚnation of the job destruction rate. The mo deI produces a elose match with data on job creation and destruction. Cyelical fluctuations in the job destruction rate serve to magnify the effects of productivity shocks on output; as well as making the effects much more persistent. Interactions between the labor and capital markets, mediated by the rental rate of capital, play the central role in propagating shocks.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms’ response to inflation shocks

This paper proposes a test for distinguishing between time-dependent and state-dependent pricing based on whether the timing of pricing changes is affected by realized or expeted inflation. Using Brazilian data and exploring a large discrepancy between realized and expected inflation in 2002-3, we obtain a strong relation between expected inflation and duration of price spells, but little effect of inflation shocks on the frequency of price adjustment. The results thus support models with timedependent pricing, where the timing for following changes is optimally chosen whenever firms adjust prices

Exogenous shocks and misattribution of responsibility for economic performance: results from survey experiments

Recent models of economic voting assume that citizens can discount exogenous factors when assessing government's economic performance. Yet there is evidence that Latin American voters do not behave in such way, and attribute to presidents outcomes that are beyond their control. This paper presents three survey experiments designed to explore mechanisms that could potentially correct such misattribution, and therefore contribute to debiasing individual behavior towards government evaluation. Our results provide individual-level evidence of the misattribution found in aggregate studies of electorate behavior, and reinforce psychologist's skepticism towards prospects of mental decontamination, as we found very scant evidence that providing information, raising awareness, or increasing motivation to correct biases infuenced individual's evaluation of president's performance.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Thermal and mechanical shocks affecting the first flush of production of Lentinula edodes on Eucalyptus saligna logs

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito do choque térmico e mecânico na produtividade de Lentinula edodes em 140 toras de Eucalyptus saligna, completamente colonizadas pelo fungo, em diferentes tempos de imersão em água e no primeiro fluxo de produção. As toras foram imersas em água resfriada (16ºC) ou à temperatura ambiente (22ºC); os períodos de imersão corresponderam a 6, 10, 14, 18, 22, 26 e 38 horas; o choque mecânico foi acompanhado por três quedas consecutivas da tora, em posição vertical, no chão. A temperatura da água e o tempo de imersão afetaram a produção de L. edodes, resultando em aumentos significativos (2 a 4 vezes) nos tratamentos em que as toras foram submetidas à água resfriada e nos tempos de imersão mais curtos (6 e 10 horas). O choque mecânico não resultou em aumento na produção de basidiomas.

Whitham method for the Benjamin-Ono-Burgers equation and dispersive shocks

The Whitham modulation equations for the parameters of a periodic solution are derived using the generalized Lagrangian approach for the case of the damped Benjamin-Ono equation. The structure of the dispersive shock is considered in this method.

Proline content and protein patterns in Eucalyptus grandis shoots submitted to high and low temperature shocks

As respostas às mudanças de temperatura de plantas aclimatadas e não aclimatadas de E. grandis cultivadas in vitro foram avaliadas considerando alterações dos níveis de prolina e proteínas solúveis totais. Análises de proteínas solúveis através de SDS-PAGE e prolina foram realizadas após 12h a 12ºC (aclimatação ao frio) ou a 33ºC (aclimatação ao calor), e imediatamente depois dos choques térmicos a 41ºC e 0ºC. Análises também foram realizadas após um período de 24h depois dos choques térmicos (período de recuperação). O tratamento de temperatura a 0ºC não alterou o padrão de proteínas nas plantas aclimatadas e não aclimatadas, entretanto a temperatura baixa induziu altos níveis de prolina, que se mantiveram relativamente altos após o período de recuperação. Três novas proteínas (90,5, 75 e 39 kDa), provavelmente HSPs, foram observadas nas plantas aclimatadas e não aclimatadas submetidas às temperaturas altas. As plantas expostas a 41ºC foram capazes de recuperar-se dos choques após o período de recuperação, entretanto não houve recuperação completa das plantas expostas às baixas temperaturas. O efeito da aclimatação sobre a recuperação (homeostasis) pode variar dependendo do parâmetro avaliado, tipo e duração do choque térmico.

Interferometric probes of ultrarelativistic nuclear collisions

We suggest that pion and kaon interlerometry are complementary probes that help differentiate hadronic resonance gas from plasma dynamical models. We also discuss how interferometry could be used to test the presence of resonances at AGS energies. Finally, we study the A dependence of interferometry in the resonance model at 200 A GeV. © 1991.

Trade and financial liberalization in the context of external shocks and inconsistent domestic policies

Includes bibliography

Possible transmission of adverse shocks from the recent financial crisis to Central America through trade finance

Includes Bibliography

Distribución del ingreso, asignación de recursos y shocks macroeconómicos: un modelo de equilibrio general computado para la Argentina en 1993

Incluye Bibliografía