Why Monte Carlo Simulations are Inferences and not Experiments

Monte Carlo simulations arrive at their results by introducing randomness, sometimes derived from a physical randomizing device. Nonetheless, we argue, they open no new epistemic channels beyond that already employed by traditional simulations: the inference by ordinary argumentation of conclusions from assumptions built into the simulations. We show that Monte Carlo simulations cannot produce knowledge other than by inference, and that they resemble other computer simulations in the manner in which they derive their conclusions. Simple examples of Monte Carlo simulations are analysed to identify the underlying inferences.

Process and pattern in cichlid radiations - inferences for understanding unusually high rates of evolutionary diversification

The cichlid fish radiations in the African Great Lakes differ from all other known cases of rapid speciation in vertebrates by their spectacular trophic diversity and richness of sympatric species, comparable to the most rapid angiosperm radiations. I review factors that may have facilitated these radiations and compare these with insights from recent work on plant radiations. Work to date suggests that it was a coincidence of ecological opportunity, intrinsic ecological versatility and genomic flexibility, rapidly evolving behavioral mate choice and large amounts of standing genetic variation that permitted these spectacular fish radiations. I propose that spatially orthogonal gradients in the fit of phenotypes to the environment facilitate speciation because they allow colonization of alternative fitness peaks during clinal speciation despite local disruptive selection. Such gradients are manifold in lakes because of the interaction of water depth as an omnipresent third spatial dimension with other fitness-relevant variables. I introduce a conceptual model of adaptive radiation that integrates these elements and discuss its applicability to, and predictions for, plant radiations.

Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?

Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation - the mean and median - and three different measures of inflation variability - the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and median deviation. Using the mean and standard deviation or the median and the median deviation, the results support both the hypothesis that higher inflation creates more inflation variability and that inflation variability raises inflation across quantiles. Moreover, higher quantiles in both cases lead to larger marginal effects of inflation (inflation variability) on inflation variability (inflation). Using the mean and the coefficient of variation, however, the findings largely support no correlation between inflation and its variability. Finally, we also consider whether thresholds for inflation rate or inflation variability exist before finding such positive correlations. We find evidence of thresholds for inflation rates below 3 percent, but mixed results for thresholds for inflation variability.

Behavioral inferences from the Skhul/Qafzeh early modern human hand remains

Two groups of humans are found in the Near East ≈100,000 years ago, the late archaic Neanderthals and the early modern Skhul/Qafzeh humans. Observations that Neanderthals were more heavily muscled, had stronger upper-limb bones, and possessed unusual shapes and orientations of some upper-limb joint complexes relative to the Skhul/Qafzeh hominids, have led some researchers to conclude that significant between-group upper-limb-related behavioral differences must have been present, despite the association of the two groups with similar Middle Paleolithic archeological complexes. A three-dimensional morphometric analysis of the hand remains of the Skhul/Qafzeh hominids, Neanderthals, early and late Upper Paleolithic humans, and Holocene humans supports the dichotomy. The Skhul/Qafzeh carpometacarpal remains do not have any unique morphologies relative to the other fossil samples remains examined. However, in the functionally significant metacarpal 1 and 3 bases they resemble Upper Paleolithic humans, not Neanderthals. Furthermore, the Skhul/Qafzeh sample differs significantly from the Neanderthals in many other aspects of hand functional anatomy. Given the correlations between changes in tool technologies and functional adaptations seen in the hands of Upper Paleolithic humans, it is concluded that the Skhul/Qafzeh hand remains were adapted to Upper Paleolithic-like manipulative repertoires. These results support the inference of significant behavioral differences between Neanderthals and the Skhul/Qafzeh hominids and indicate that a significant shift in human manipulative behaviors was associated with the earliest stages of the emergence of modern humans.

Population maintenance among tropical reef fishes: Inferences from small-island endemics

To what extent do local populations of tropical reef fishes persist through the recruitment of pelagic larvae to their natal reef? Endemics from small, isolated islands can help answer that question by indicating whether special biological attributes are needed for long-term survival under enforced localization in high-risk situations. Taxonomically and biologically, the endemics from seven such islands are broadly representative of their regional faunas. As natal-site recruitment occurs among reef fishes in much less isolated situations, these characteristics of island endemics indicate that a wide range of reef fishes could have persistent self-sustaining local populations. Because small islands regularly support substantial reef fish faunas, regional systems of small reserves could preserve much of the diversity of these fishes.

One-sided asymptotic inferences for a proportion.

Two-sided asymptotic confidence intervals for an unknown proportion p have been the subject of a great deal of literature. Surprisingly, there are very few papers devoted, like this article, to the case of one tail, despite its great importance in practice and the fact that its behavior is usually different from that of the case with two tails. This paper evaluates 47 methods and concludes that (1) the optimal method is the classic Wilson method with a correction for continuity and (2) a simpler option, almost as good as the first, is the new adjusted Wald method (Wald's classic method applied to the data increased in the values proposed by Borkowf: adding a single imaginary failure or success).

The specificity of emotion inferences as a function of emotional contextual support

Research on emotion inferences has shown that readers include a representation of the main character's emotional state in their mental representations of the text. We examined the specificity of emotion representations as a function of the emotion content of short narratives, in terms of the quantity and quality of emotion components included in the narratives, based on the GRID instrument (Fontaine et al., 2013). In a self-paced reading task, target sentences that only moderately matched the emotional context were read faster than target sentences that strongly matched the emotional context of the narratives. In a “makes sense” judgment task, we showed that this result was not driven by a mapping difficulty and, in a memory task, we provided some evidence that these effects reflected integration processes. We suggest that readers can integrate specific emotions into their mental representations, but only if provided with the appropriate emotional contextual support.

Inverse and symmetrical voice: On languages with two transitive constructions

In voice and alignment typology, a categorical distinction is generally made between inverse systems on the one hand and symmetrical voice systems on the other. A major reason for distinguishing between these two types is the assumption that inverse systems are governed by a hierarchy involving grammatical, semantic, and ontological criteria, while symmetrical voice systems are based on discourse-pragmatic factors. However, the two types also have several important properties in common, in particular the fact that they have more than one nonderived transitive construction. Based on data from three native languages of South America, we show that the line between the two types is not always easy to draw, and that features of the inverse type can coexist with those of the symmetrical-voice type in the same language.

Memoirs of the life and religious experience of Ray Potter : published with a design to magnify the grace of God in shewing mercy to the chief of sinners, and to illustrate the clorious doctrines of the gospel, by giving a circumstancial account of the travel of the author's mind, into that view of the doctrine of Christ, which he considers to be the truth, the subject being generally treated argumentatively, with frequent doctrinal inferences drawn from experience /

"Letter to Lorenzo Dow [on Freemasonry]": 14 p. at end.

Daily monitor, or, Reflections for each day in the year : containing inferences from Christian doctrines, ecclesiastical history, sacred biography, &c. : intended for the use of all classes, and fitted to the various circumstances of life /

Mode of access: Internet.

An epitome of systematic theology : embracing the definition; the explanation; the proof, and the moral inferences, of all the doctrines of revelation, from the evidences of the existence of God from the light of nature, down to the consummation of all things /

Shoemaker 40454.

Sermons, on a number of connected subjects; in which an attempt is made to explain the leading principles of revealed religion; to show their consistency, reasonableness and importance; and to guard them against dangerous misconstructions and false inferences, and against the specious objections of unbelievers.

Mode of access: Internet.

An essay on the existence of a supreme creator ...; containing also the refutation ... of the objections urged against his wisdom and goodness, and ... the most important practical inferences.

Mode of access: Internet.

Violations of the Fair Labor Standards Act : inferences from the 1979 noncompliance survey /

"Number 17. March 24, 1981."