861 resultados para Traffic Forecasting
Resumo:
Air pollution represents a serious risk not only to environment and human health, but also to historical heritage. In this study, air pollution of the Oporto Metropolitan Area and its main impacts were characterized. The results showed that levels of CO, PM10 and SO2 have been continuously decreasing in the respective metropolitan area while levels of NOx and NO2 have not changed significantly. Traffic emissions were the main source of the determined polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs; 16 PAHs considered by U.S. EPA as priority pollutants, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene and benzo[j]fluoranthene) in air of the respective metropolitan area. The mean concentration of 18 PAHs in air was 69.9±39.7 ng m−3 with 3–4 rings PAHs accounting for 75% of the total ΣPAHs. The health risk analysis of PAHs in air showed that the estimated values of lifetime lung cancer risks considerably exceeded the health-based guideline level. Analytical results also confirm that historical monuments in urban areas act as passive repositories for air pollutants present in the surrounding atmosphere. FTIR and EDX analyses showed that gypsum was the most important constituent of black crusts of the characterized historical monument Monastery of Serra do Pilar classified as “UNESCO World Cultural Heritage”. In black crusts, 4–6 rings compounds accounted approximately for 85% of ΣPAHs. The diagnostic ratios confirmed that traffic emissions were the major source of PAHs in black crusts; PAH composition profiles were very similar for crusts and PM10 and PM2.5.
Resumo:
Because polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been proven to be toxic, mutagenic, and/or carcinogenic, there is widespread interest in analyzing and evaluating exposure to PAHs in atmospheric environments influenced by different emission sources. Because traffic emissions are one of the biggest sources of fine particles, more information on carcinogenic PAHs associated with fine particles needs to be provided. Aiming to further understand the impact of traffic particulate matter (PM) on human health, this study evaluated the influence of traffic on PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 µm) and PM2.5 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm), considering their concentrations and compositions in carcinogenic PAHs. Samples were collected at one site influenced by traffic emissions and at one reference site using lowvolume samplers. Analysis of PAHs was performed by microwave-assisted extraction combined with liquid chromatography (MAE-LC); 17 PAHs, including 9 carcinogenic ones, were quantified. At the site influenced by traffic emissions, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were, respectively, 380 and 390% higher than at the background site. When influenced by traffic emissions, the total concentration of nine carcinogenic compounds (naphthalene, chrysene, benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(b) fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene, and dibenzo(a,l)pyrene) was increased by 2400 and 3000% in PM10 and PM2.5, respectively; these nine carcinogenic compounds represented 68 and 74% of total PAHs (ƩPAHs) for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. All PAHs, including the carcinogenic compounds, were mainly present in fine particles. Considering the strong influence of these fine particles on human health, these conclusions are relevant for the development of strategies to protect public health.
Resumo:
Considering vehicular transport as one of the most health‐relevant emission sources of urban air, and with aim to further understand its negative impact on human health, the objective of this work was to study its influence on levels of particulate‐bound PAHs and to evaluate associated health risks. The 16 PAHs considered by USEPA as priority pollutants, and dibenzo[a, l]pyrene associated with fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5–10) particles were determined. The samples were collected at one urban site, as well as at a reference place for comparison. The results showed that the air of the urban site was more seriously polluted than at the reference one, with total concentrations of 17 PAHs being 2240% and 640% higher for PM2.5 and PM2.5–10, respectively; vehicular traffic was the major emission source at the urban site. PAHs were predominantly associated with PM2.5 (83% to 94% of ΣPAHs at urban and reference site, respectively) with 5 rings PAHs being the most abundant groups of compounds at both sites. The risks associated with exposure to particulate PAHs were evaluated using the TEF approach. The estimated value of lifetime lung cancer risks exceeded the health‐based guideline levels, thus demonstrating that exposure to PM2.5‐bound PAHs at levels found at urban site might cause potential health risks. Furthermore, the results showed that evaluation of benzo[a] pyrene (regarded as a marker of the genotoxic and carcinogenic PAHs) alone would probably underestimate the carcinogenic potential of the studied PAH mixtures.
Resumo:
Technological developments are pulling fieldbus networks to support a new wide class of applications, such as industrial multimedia applications. To enable its use in this kind of applications the TCP/IP suite of protocols can be integrated within a fieldbus stack, leading to a dual-stack approach that is briefly outlined in the paper. One important requirement that must be fulfilled by this approach is that the hard real-time guarantees provided to the control-related traffic ("native" fieldbus traffic) are kept. At the same time it must also provide the desired quality of service (QoS) to IP applications. The focus of the paper is on how, in such a dual-stack approach, QoS can be efficiently provided to IP applications requiring quasi-constant bandwidth.
Resumo:
In this paper we address the ability of WorldFIP to cope with the real-time requirements of distributed computer-controlled systems (DCCS). Typical DCCS include process variables that must be transferred between network devices both in a periodic and sporadic (aperiodic) basis. The WorldFIP protocol is designed to support both types of traffic. WorldFIP can easily guarantee the timing requirements for the periodic traffic. However, for the aperiodic traffic more complex analysis must be made in order to guarantee its timing requirements. This paper describes work that is being carried out to extend previous relevant work, in order to include the actual schedule for the periodic traffic in the worst-case response time analysis of sporadic traffic in WorldFIP networks
Resumo:
The IEEE 802.15.4 is the most widespread used protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and it is being used as a baseline for several higher layer protocols such as ZigBee, 6LoWPAN or WirelessHART. Its MAC (Medium Access Control) supports both contention-free (CFP, based on the reservation of guaranteed time-slots GTS) and contention based (CAP, ruled by CSMA/CA) access, when operating in beacon-enabled mode. Thus, it enables the differentiation between real-time and best-effort traffic. However, some WSN applications and higher layer protocols may strongly benefit from the possibility of supporting more traffic classes. This happens, for instance, for dense WSNs used in time-sensitive industrial applications. In this context, we propose to differentiate traffic classes within the CAP, enabling lower transmission delays and higher success probability to timecritical messages, such as for event detection, GTS reservation and network management. Building upon a previously proposed methodology (TRADIF), in this paper we outline its implementation and experimental validation over a real-time operating system. Importantly, TRADIF is fully backward compatible with the IEEE 802.15.4 standard, enabling to create different traffic classes just by tuning some MAC parameters.
Resumo:
Consider a multihop network comprising Ethernet switches. The traffic is described with flows and each flow is characterized by its source node, its destination node, its route and parameters in the generalized multiframe model. Output queues on Ethernet switches are scheduled by static-priority scheduling and tasks executing on the processor in an Ethernet switch are scheduled by stride scheduling. We present schedulability analysis for this setting.
Resumo:
Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.
Resumo:
The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.
Resumo:
It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.
Resumo:
This article presents a dynamical analysis of several traffic phenomena, applying a new modelling formalism based on the embedding of statistics and Laplace transform. The new dynamic description integrates the concepts of fractional calculus leading to a more natural treatment of the continuum of the Transfer Function parameters intrinsic in this system. The results using system theory tools point out that it is possible to study traffic systems, taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. Dynamics, Games and Science I Dynamics, Games and Science I Look Inside Other actions Export citation About this Book Reprints and Permissions Add to Papers Share Share this content on Facebook Share this content on Twitter Share this content on LinkedIn
Resumo:
Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.
Resumo:
In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.
Resumo:
This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.
Resumo:
Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática