A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.

Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection of one of the two models. However, there are parameter regions for which the non-rational forecasting model is selected in the long-run. A key structural parameter governing outcomes measures the degree of expectations feedback in Muth's model of price determination.

Schizophrenic delusions: a phenomenological approach.

The issue of specificity of delusions in schizophrenia is still a matter of debate. The authors analyze the delusion formation in schizophrenia from a prototypical, phenomenological point of view, focusing on the subject's experience. This perspective links delusion formation to the autistic predisposition, which is considered here as the elementary phenotypic expression of the vulnerability to schizophrenia. Autism is viewed as a defective preconceptual (i.e., before language) attunement to the world. It impedes the individual's sharing of "common sense" with others and impairs the ability to project into the future. The development of delusions is illustrated, in part, by Klaus Conrad's work on the onset of paranoid schizophrenia. Delusions are viewed as transformations of the structure of experiencing. When threatened in future ability to be, the autistic, vulnerable person looks for the clues to becoming by attributing significance to disparate elements of the environment, which become self-referential. The link established between these disparate elements is based on universal characteristics that give the schizophrenic delusion a metaphysical quality. The transitivistic experience in delusions of control and omnipotence points to a specific way of crossing the border between "mine" and "yours" (disturbances of the experiencing "I"). What strikes a clinician in these delusions is that the normally tacit link between the sense of being and the sense of acting becomes quite apparent. The authors also propose a specificity in the themes of schizophrenic delusions. Delusions acquire a schizophrenic quality when ontological (i.e., universal) elements of the discourse between the locutor and the Other dominate at the expense of the worldly elements. It is emphasized that delusional content and form are dialectically related and hardly distinguishable. The authors consider the delusion formation as a phenomenon of emergence, a situation in which a new qualitative order arises from the reorganization of essentially unchanged elements. To consider schizophrenia as an emergent, particular way of experiencing, related to the autistic defect, has important consequences for research and for treatment. A dialectic exchange is needed between prototypical models generated by phenomenological inquiry and empirical, operational validation of testable aspects of such models.

La llegenda del cor menjat al Decameró de Boccaccio : estratègies de traducció al català

Des de l'origen de les llengües, els pobles han tingut la necessitat de fer-se entendre. La traducció és una eina fonamental en la difusió i el coneixement de la diversitat, i el traductor, la peça que facilita l'apropament de les cultures. Però a l'hora de portar a terme el seu objectiu, no tots els traductors ho fan de la mateixa manera. Cal tenir en compte factors temporals, culturals, històrics, referencials, lingüístics, socials... elements que determinen el resultat final d'una traducció i les diferències entre les traduccions d'un mateix text. En aquest treball em proposo determinar les diferents estratègies que els traductors han seguit a l'hora de traduir al català el conte novè de la quarta jornada del Decameró de Giovanni Boccaccio.

Nursing performance in the policy transfer of directly observed treatment of tuberculosis

Objective Analyzing the policy transfer of directly observed treatment of tuberculosis from the perspective of nursing. Method This is a descriptive study with qualitative approach, which had 10 nurses of the Family Health Strategy in São Paulo as subjects. The interviews were carried out between May and June 2013, and were adopted the technique of thematic content analysis and the referential of policy transfer. Results On the signification of this treatment, are related the senses of disciplinary monitoring, the bond and approximation to the context of patients’ lives. Operationally, nurses, community health agents and nursing technicians stand out as agents of implementation of this policy, developing multiple actions of user embracement. The nurse is evidenced as an educator in health, leader in the family health team, and capable of creating emotional bond with users. Conclusion It was found that the innovations proposed in the treatment are incipient in the daily work of nurses.

Performance evaluation of primary care services for the treatment of tuberculosis

Objective Evaluating the performance of primary care services for the treatment of tuberculosis according to the assessment referential of health services (structure/process) in Cabedelo, a port city in the state of Paraíba. Method An evaluation quantitative, cross-sectional study, in which were carried out 117 interviews with health professionals using a structured instrument. The analysis was based on the construction of indicators using a standardized value for the reduced variable (z=1). Results The structural indicators showed regular performance for the following variables: professional training, access to record instruments and coordination with other services. The process indicators related to external actions and information about the disease had unsatisfactory performance. The directly observed treatment and the flows of reference/counter-reference had regular performance. Conclusion The focused professional qualification, the fragmentation of practices and the unsystematic home care constitute obstacles for carrying out actions aimed at providing expanded, continuous and resolute care.



Alternativas de Investimentos Financeiros para as empresas em São Vicente

A tendência, hoje em dia, é para a captação directa das poupanças aos investidores. Esta captação faz-se através da emissão de produtos financeiros. Dada a incerteza e diversidade de produtos financeiros, o investidor terá de analisar cuidadosamente as múltiplas alternativas existentes e tomar a decisão de investir de acordo com a rendibilidade que pretende obter e o nível de risco que está disposto a correr. O trabalho ora apresentado espelha uma análise dos Riscos/Rendibilidade associados aos Investimentos Financeiros tais como Depósitos a Prazos, Obrigações, Acções e Bilhetes de Tesouro, com foco nos dois primeiros. O desenvolvimento da temática foi orientado numa primeira etapa para através da pesquisa necessária a construção do referencial teórico centrado por um lado, nos conceitos associados a mercados financeiros bem como os riscos associados as transacções desses produtos financeiros nesse mercado. Mencionamos diferentes tipos de produtos financeiros transaccionados neste mercado, bem como a importância da cotação destes produtos na Bolsa de Valores. A sustentabilidade deste rico referencial teórico ficou evidenciada através de um estudo de caso de uma empresa que dedica ao comércio - geral de Materiais de Construção, partindo de uma análise gráfica comparada que irá demonstrar qual o risco e a rendibilidade que há em canalizar parte do valor aplicado no depósito a prazo para investir em obrigações do BCA emitidas em Dezembro de 2010. Nowadays the tendency is for the reception all-nighter of the savings to the investors. This reception is made through the emission of financial products. Owing to the uncertainty and diversity of financial products, the investor has to analyze carefully the multiple existent alternatives and then decide to invest according to the profitability he intends to obtain and the risk level he is willing to run. The work for now presented mirrors an analysis of the risks / profitability associated to the Financial Investments as Deposits to periods, Obligations, Shares, Tickets of Treasury, with focus in the first two. The development of the theme was guided in a first stage for through the necessary research for the construction of the theoretical referential system centered on one side, in the concepts associated to financial markets as well as the risks associated to the transactions of those financial products in that market. We referred to different types of financial products transacted in this market, as well as the importance of the quotation of these products in the stock exchange. The sustainability of this rich theoretical referential system was evidenced through a study of case of a company that dedicates to the trade of construction materials, leaving from a compared analysis that will demonstrate Which the risk and the profitability that there is in channeling part of the applied value in the deposit to period to invest in obligations of „BCA‟ emitted in December of 2010.

Análise de Reantabilidade através da Margem de Contribuição

Este trabalho versa sobre a análise de rentabilidade através da margem de contribuição e tem por objectivo evidenciar como a margem de contribuição pode ser utilizada pelos gestores, na rentabilidade dos clientes, dos produtos, dos canais de distribuição e dos segmentos de mercado em que as empresas operam. O estudo está assente num referencial teórico que faz incursões nos principais conceitos conexos ao tema principal nomeadamente: análise custo – volume – resultado, métodos apuramento dos resultados na óptica da absorção e da contribuição, e a curva ABC. Na aplicação prática, procurámos utilizar alguns instrumentos de gestão nomeadamente o ponto de equilíbrio, apuramento dos resultados por segmentos de clientes, negócios e territórios de comercialização e a aplicação da curva de experiência ABC. O caso de estudo incide sobre a empresa nacional de moagem (Moave S.A) e restringe-se ao plano de produção e embalagem através do pequeno ensaque. O processo de colecta de dados foi obtido directamente das informações fornecidas pela Direcção da empresa, nomeadamente os produtos a serem embalados, a estrutura de custos, o plano de produção, a capacidade máxima da máquina e o calendário de trabalho diário e mensal. Os resultados evidenciaram que a utilização da margem de contribuição como ferramenta de gestão, constitui um importante instrumento de análise e avaliação da rentabilidade dos produtos, dos clientes, dos canais de distribuição bem como dos territórios de comercialização. This work focuses on the analysis of profitability through contribution margin and aims to highlight the contribution margin can be used by managers, in the profitability of customers, products, distribution channels and market segments in which companies operate. The study is based on the referential theoretical that makes inroads in key concepts related to the main topic, namely: cost analysis – volume – result, methods of clearance results in optical absorption and contribution, and ABC. In practice, we try to use some management tools in the balance, such as breakeven point, clearance of results by segments of customers, business and marketing territories and the application of experience curve ABC. The case study focuses on the national milling company (Moave s.a), and restricts itself to plan production and packaging through small bagging. The process of collecting data was obtained directly from the information provided by the management of the undertaking, in particular the products to be packed, the cost structure, the production plan, the maximum capacity of the machine and the daily work schedule and monthly. The results showed that the use of the contribution margin as a management tool constitutes an important instrument of analysis and assessment of the profitability of products, customers, distribution channels and marketing territories.

Adesão de Cabo Verde à Organização Mundial do Comércio - Problemas, Desafios e Perspectivas

A dinâmica de desenvolvimento de Cabo Verde vem sendo uma constante, com ganhos significativos para o país, como atestam a recente adesão à Organização Mundial do Comércio, a graduação a País de Rendimento Médio e a Parceria Especial com a União Europeia. No dia 23 de Julho de 2008, Cabo Verde tornou-se no 153º Estado membro da Organização Mundial do Comércio, sendo que nesta conquista foi o primeiro país Africano e o terceiro País Menos Avançado a conseguir este importante marco via negocial. As vantagens advenientes desta adesão são muitas, sendo de destacar a maior confiança dos investidores no país ao propiciar-se a expansão do mercado e a realização de negócios num ambiente mais seguro e estável, e ainda a possibilidade de melhoria da qualidade de prestação de serviços, uma vez que tudo passou a ser norteado por padrões e regras do comércio internacional. Este trabalho foi elaborado com base em pesquisa bibliográfica e exploratória necessária à construção de um referencial teórico sobre o assunto em questão, tendo como base artigos, livros, revistas e consultas em websites. Finalizando, para avaliação, apresentamos uma componente prática com base num questionário aplicado ao tecido empresarial, com perguntas abertas e de múltipla escolha, onde os inquiridos puderam fazer a sua apreciação relativa ao processo de adesão, e às expectativas advenientes. Os resultados obtidos no final do trabalho mostraram de forma clara e inequívoca a necessidade de Cabo Verde se reorganizar, reforçar o sector privado e a competitividade das empresas, através de, designadamente: melhoria do ambiente fiscal das empresas, fomento e apoio às pequenas e médias empresas. Outrossim, há que dar seguimento as reformas no sector comercial, capacitando e formando quadros nacionais uma vez que estes desempenham um papel essencial no crescimento económico do país e permitem dar maior previsibilidade aos investidores, sendo este último um dos pilares decisivos no requisito do investimento externo. The dynamics of the development of Cape Verde is becoming a constant, with significant gains to the country, as attests the recent adhesion to the World Trade Organization, the graduation to Country of Medium Revenue, as well as the Special Partnership with the European Union. On July 23, 2008, Cape Verde became the 153rd State member of the World Trade Organization, and in this conquest it was the first African country and the third Less Advanced Country to get this mark through negotiable way. The advantages proceeding from this adhesion are many, highlighting the investors' largest trust in the country when propitiating the expansion of the market and the accomplishment of business in a safer and stable atmosphere, and still the possibility of improvement of the quality of installment of services, once everything started being guided by patterns and rules of the international trade. This work was elaborated based on bibliographical and exploratory researches necessary to the construction of the theoretical referential about the subject in question, based on articles, books, magazines and website researches. Concluding, for evaluation, we presented a practical component based on a questionnaire applied to the managerial stuff, with open and multiple choice questions, where the inquired could make his appreciation related to the adhesion process, and the proceeding expectations. The results obtained at the end of the work, showed in a clear way the need of Cape Verde to organize, to reinforce the private sector and the competitiveness of the companies, through, namely: the improvement of the fiscal atmosphere of the companies, fomentation and support of the small and medium companies. Meanwhile, it is important to continue the reforms in the commercial sector, qualifying and forming national staff once they play an essential part in the economic growth of the country and allow giving a larger previsibility to the investors, being this last one, one of the decisive pillars in the requirement of the external investment.

Lire l'oral : pour une typologie linguistique des représentations écrites de l'oralité (le cas du français)

Cette thèse propose de passer en revue les modalités de la représentation écrite de l'oralité en français. La pratique littéraire constitue le matériau et l'horizon de la théorisation. La problématique - comment l'écrit représente-t-il l'oral ? - est d'abord située et reformulée dans le cadre de la linguistique de la parole (I). Les rapports entre oralité et scripturalité sont ensuite étudiés sous trois angles. L'angle biotechnologique compare la matérialité et l'affordance des signaux graphiques et des signaux acoustiques (II 1). L'examen sémiotique reconnaît dans le français écrit un système dit phonographique dont la fonction est de représenter l'expression des signes du français oral. Sont analysées alors les relations entre les systèmes de signes impliqués, la diversité des actualisations possibles du système phonographique (effets d'écoute), ainsi que diverses sémiotiques analogiques (II 2). On étudie ensuite le rôle de la prosodie dans la lecture. La position adoptée est la suivante : bien qu'elle soit facultative dans l'activité de lecture, la prosodie est spécialement sollicitée par des écrits qu'on peut caractériser linguistiquement. L'interprétation prosodique apporte à ces écrits un surcroît de signification en même temps qu'il produit un mode spécifique de représentation de l'oral appelé effet prosodique (II 3). L'angle sémantique est esquissé finalement : il conduit à dégager deux modalités de représentation supplémentaire. Pour la première, l'oral se situe sur le plan sémantico-référentiel de l'expression écrite (écrire à propos d'oral) ; pour la seconde, l'oral est un extérieur discursif modalisant le dire écrit : l'écrit est reconnu comme énoncé à la manière de l'oral (effet de style oral). - This PhD thesis attempts to review the modalities of orality in written representation. Literary writings act as the material for theorization. First of all, the thesis statement - how does writing represent oral - is situated and then, reformulated within the frame of linguistique de la parole (the linguistic field of speech) (I). The connections between orality and writing are then studied under three angles. The biotechnological angle compares the materiality and the affordance of graphic signs and acoustic signals (II 1). A semiotic examination acknowledges, in French, a phonographical system whose function is to represent the expression of French oral signs. Thus, the relationships between the systems of implicated signs, the diversity of possible actualisations of the phonographic system (voice effects), as well as various analogical semiotics are analysed (II 2). Furthermore, the role of prosody is studied within reading. The stand taken is the following : even though it is optional during a reading activity, prosody is especially sought-after by linguistically characterised writings. The prosodie interpretation brings to these writings a surge of signification while producing a specific mode of oral representation called the prosodie effects (II 3). The semantic angle is finally drawn : it leads to two additional modalities of representation. For the first part, speech is located on the semantic and referential plan of the written expression (writing about speech); as for the second part, spoken language is a discursive exteriority : writing is recognised as an oral-like utterance {oral-like effect).

Who are Cerverí's worst enemies?

Those who heard the piece sung at the royal court of Aragon, where it was composed, were more than likely familiar with its author, the troubadour Cerverí de Girona, one of the most significant poets of the time. If later readers knew the poem from a compilation similar to the only chansonnier that has preserved it until present times, they would have had access to at least one hundred and three other pieces by the same troubadour, which give useful clues to understand this self-referential piece

Carte et tableau : approche épistémologique ternaire

Under the referential of a ternary logic, this article aims to focus on the geographical map perceived as a visual object and the question of surfaces of representation. We analyse the status of map making versus landscape representation, the relations between a map and a painted picture. A ternary model of the pictural composition perspective|light/pictural field is proposed. The frame of the map, articulating the space that is cut out and the space included is discussed in a parallel between maps and painted pictures.

Resting-state temporal synchronization networks emerge from connectivity topology and heterogeneity.

Spatial patterns of coherent activity across different brain areas have been identified during the resting-state fluctuations of the brain. However, recent studies indicate that resting-state activity is not stationary, but shows complex temporal dynamics. We were interested in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the phase interactions among resting-state fMRI BOLD signals from human subjects. We found that the global phase synchrony of the BOLD signals evolves on a characteristic ultra-slow (<0.01Hz) time scale, and that its temporal variations reflect the transient formation and dissolution of multiple communities of synchronized brain regions. Synchronized communities reoccurred intermittently in time and across scanning sessions. We found that the synchronization communities relate to previously defined functional networks known to be engaged in sensory-motor or cognitive function, called resting-state networks (RSNs), including the default mode network, the somato-motor network, the visual network, the auditory network, the cognitive control networks, the self-referential network, and combinations of these and other RSNs. We studied the mechanism originating the observed spatiotemporal synchronization dynamics by using a network model of phase oscillators connected through the brain's anatomical connectivity estimated using diffusion imaging human data. The model consistently approximates the temporal and spatial synchronization patterns of the empirical data, and reveals that multiple clusters that transiently synchronize and desynchronize emerge from the complex topology of anatomical connections, provided that oscillators are heterogeneous.

La fonction de la carte géographique : approche épistémologique ternaire

Under the referential of a ternary logic, with the two orthogonal concepts of information/signification, mediated by the third-included, the diagonal organizer of the cartographic communication, this article aims to cladify the pragmatical aspects of the map functionnality as a communication object. The interaction beween the meaning of its information and the information reciprocally contained in its signification, within a specified context and pertinence, implies a strong level of redundancy shared by producers and users of the map, a same system of scientific and ideological values to pass on the cartographic message. We are far from the objective cartographer who would fade away so to let the facts speaks "objectively" by themselves.