Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Training for Antenna Selection in Time-Varying Channels: Optimal Selection, Energy Allocation, and Energy Efficiency Evaluation

Single receive antenna selection (AS) is a popular method for obtaining diversity benefits without the additional costs of multiple radio receiver chains. Since only one antenna receives at any time, the transmitter sends a pilot multiple times to enable the receiver to estimate the channel gains of its N antennas to the transmitter and select an antenna. In time-varying channels, the channel estimates of different antennas are outdated to different extents. We analyze the symbol error probability (SEP) in time-varying channels of the N-pilot and (N+1)-pilot AS training schemes. In the former, the transmitter sends one pilot for each receive antenna. In the latter, the transmitter sends one additional pilot that helps sample the channel fading process of the selected antenna twice. We present several new results about the SEP, optimal energy allocation across pilots and data, and optimal selection rule in time-varying channels for the two schemes. We show that due to the unique nature of AS, the (N+1)-pilot scheme, despite its longer training duration, is much more energy-efficient than the conventional N-pilot scheme. An extension to a practical scenario where all data symbols of a packet are received by the same antenna is also investigated.

Perception of time-varying signals: timbre and phonetic JND of diphthong

In this paper we propose a linear time-varying model for diphthong synthesis based on linear interpolation of formant frequencies. We, thence, determine the timbre just-noticeable difference (JND) for diphthong /a I/ (as in ‘buy’) with a constant pitch excitation through perception experiment involving four listeners and explore the phonetic JND of the diphthong. Their JND responses are determined using 1-up-3-down procedure. Using the experimental data, we map the timbre JND and phonetic JND onto a 2-D region of percentage change of formant glides. The timbre and phonetic JND contours for constant pitch show that the phonetic JND region encloses timbre JND region and also varies across listeners. The JND is observed to be more sensitive to ending vowel /I/ than starting vowel /a/ in some listeners and dependent on the direction of perturbation of starting and ending vowels.

Antenna selection for time-varying channels based on slepian subspace projections

Single receive antenna selection (AS) allows single-input single-output (SISO) systems to retain the diversity benefits of multiple antennas with minimum hardware costs. We propose a single receive AS method for time-varying channels, in which practical limitations imposed by next-generation wireless standards such as training, packetization and antenna switching time are taken into account. The proposed method utilizes low-complexity subspace projection techniques spanned by discrete prolate spheroidal (DPS) sequences. It only uses Doppler bandwidth knowledge, and does not need detailed correlation knowledge. Results show that the proposed AS method outperforms ideal conventional SISO systems with perfect CSI but no AS at the receiver and AS using the conventional Fourier estimation/prediction method. A closed-form expression for the symbol error probability (SEP) of phase-shift keying (MPSK) with symbol-by-symbol receive AS is derived.

Modeling Time-Varying Aggregate Interference in Cognitive Radio Systems, and Application to Primary Exclusive Zone Design

Accurately characterizing the time-varying interference caused to the primary users is essential in ensuring a successful deployment of cognitive radios (CR). We show that the aggregate interference at the primary receiver (PU-Rx) from multiple, randomly located cognitive users (CUs) is well modeled as a shifted lognormal random process, which is more accurate than the lognormal and the Gaussian process models considered in the literature, even for a relatively dense deployment of CUs. It also compares favorably with the asymptotically exact stable and symmetric truncated stable distribution models, except at high CU densities. Our model accounts for the effect of imperfect spectrum sensing, which depends on path-loss, shadowing, and small-scale fading of the link from the primary transmitter to the CU; the interweave and underlay modes or CR operation, which determine the transmit powers of the CUs; and time-correlated shadowing and fading of the links from the CUs to the PU-Rx. It leads to expressions for the probability distribution function, level crossing rate, and average exceedance duration. The impact of cooperative spectrum sensing is also characterized. We validate the model by applying it to redesign the primary exclusive zone to account for the time-varying nature of interference.

Capturability of Augmented Pure Proportional Navigation Guidance Against Time-Varying Target Maneuvers

This paper proposes a variation of the pure proportional navigation guidance law, called augmented pure proportional navigation, to account for target maneuvers, in a realistic nonlinear engagement geometry, and presents its capturability analysis. These results are in contrast to most work in the literature on augmented proportional navigation laws that consider a linearized geometry imposed upon the true proportional navigation guidance law. Because pure proportional navigation guidance law is closer to a realistic implementation of proportional navigation than true proportional navigation law, and any engagement process is predominantly nonlinear, the results obtained in this paper are more realistic than any available in the literature. Sufficient conditions on speed ratio, navigation gain, and augmentation parameter for capturability, and boundedness of lateral acceleration, against targets executing piecewise continuous maneuvers with time, are obtained. Further, based on a priori knowledge of the maximum maneuver capability of the target, a significant simplification of the guidance law is proposed in this paper. The proposed guidance law is also shown to require a shorter time of interception than standard pure proportional navigation and augmented proportional navigation. To remove chattering in the interceptor maneuver at the end phase of the engagement, a hybrid guidance law using augmented pure proportional navigation and pure proportional navigation is also proposed. Finally, the guaranteed capture zones of standard and augmented pure proportional navigation guidance laws against maneuvering targets are analyzed and compared in the normalized relative velocity space. It is shown that the guaranteed capture zone expands significantly when augmented pure proportional navigation is used instead of pure proportional navigation. Simulation results are given to support the theoretical findings.

MULTI-PITCH TRACKING USING GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL WITH TIME VARYING PARAMETERS AND GRATING COMPRESSION TRANSFORM

Grating Compression Transform (GCT) is a two-dimensional analysis of speech signal which has been shown to be effective in multi-pitch tracking in speech mixtures. Multi-pitch tracking methods using GCT apply Kalman filter framework to obtain pitch tracks which requires training of the filter parameters using true pitch tracks. We propose an unsupervised method for obtaining multiple pitch tracks. In the proposed method, multiple pitch tracks are modeled using time-varying means of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), referred to as TVGMM. The TVGMM parameters are estimated using multiple pitch values at each frame in a given utterance obtained from different patches of the spectrogram using GCT. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on all voiced speech mixtures as well as random speech mixtures having well separated and close pitch tracks. TVGMM achieves multi-pitch tracking with 51% and 53% multi-pitch estimates having error <= 20% for random mixtures and all-voiced mixtures respectively. TVGMM also results in lower root mean squared error in pitch track estimation compared to that by Kalman filtering.

Time-Instant Sampling Based Encoding of Time-Varying Acoustic Spectrum

The inner ear has been shown to characterize an acoustic stimuli by transducing fluid motion in the inner ear to mechanical bending of stereocilia on the inner hair cells (IHCs). The excitation motion/energy transferred to an IHC is dependent on the frequency spectrum of the acoustic stimuli, and the spatial location of the IHC along the length of the basilar membrane (BM). Subsequently, the afferent auditory nerve fiber (ANF) bundle samples the encoded waveform in the IHCs by synapsing with them. In this work we focus on sampling of information by afferent ANFs from the IHCs, and show computationally that sampling at specific time instants is sufficient for decoding of time-varying acoustic spectrum embedded in the acoustic stimuli. The approach is based on sampling the signal at its zero-crossings and higher-order derivative zero-crossings. We show results of the approach on time-varying acoustic spectrum estimation from cricket call signal recording. The framework gives a time-domain and non-spatial processing perspective to auditory signal processing. The approach works on the full band signal, and is devoid of modeling any bandpass filtering mimicking the BM action. Instead, we motivate the approach from the perspective of event-triggered sampling by afferent ANFs on the stimuli encoded in the IHCs. Though the approach gives acoustic spectrum estimation but it is shallow on its complete understanding for plausible bio-mechanical replication with current mammalian auditory mechanics insights.

Monte Carlo filtering and smoothing with application to time-varying spectral estimation

We develop methods for performing filtering and smoothing in non-linear non-Gaussian dynamical models. The methods rely on a particle cloud representation of the filtering distribution which evolves through time using importance sampling and resampling ideas. In particular, novel techniques are presented for generation of random realisations from the joint smoothing distribution and for MAP estimation of the state sequence. Realisations of the smoothing distribution are generated in a forward-backward procedure, while the MAP estimation procedure can be performed in a single forward pass of the Viterbi algorithm applied to a discretised version of the state space. An application to spectral estimation for time-varying autoregressions is described.

Stability of Switched Feedback Time-Varying Dynamic Systems Based on the Properties of the Gap Metric for Operators

The stabilization of dynamic switched control systems is focused on and based on an operator-based formulation. It is assumed that the controlled object and the controller are described by sequences of closed operator pairs (L, C) on a Hilbert space H of the input and output spaces and it is related to the existence of the inverse of the resulting input-output operator being admissible and bounded. The technical mechanism addressed to get the results is the appropriate use of the fact that closed operators being sufficiently close to bounded operators, in terms of the gap metric, are also bounded. That philosophy is followed for the operators describing the input-output relations in switched feedback control systems so as to guarantee the closed-loop stabilization.