Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Extending the friction cone algorithm for arbitrary polygon based haptic objects

Most haptic environments are based on single point interactions whereas in practice, object manipulation requires multiple contact points between the object, fingers, thumb and palm. The Friction Cone Algorithm was developed specifically to work well in a multi-finger haptic environment where object manipulation would occur. However, the Friction Cone Algorithm has two shortcomings when applied to polygon meshes: there is no means of transitioning polygon boundaries or feeling non-convex edges. In order to overcome these deficiencies, Face Directed Connection Graphs have been developed as well as a robust method for applying friction to non-convex edges. Both these extensions are described herein, as well as the implementation issues associated with them.

Expert system aid for design of overload line distribution networks

The use of expert system techniques in power distribution system design is examined. The selection and siting of equipment on overhead line networks is chosen for investigation as the use of equipment such as auto-reclosers, etc., represents a substantial investment and has a significant effect on the reliability of the system. Through past experience with both equipment and network operations, most decisions in selection and siting of this equipment are made intuitively, following certain general guidelines or rules of thumb. This heuristic nature of the problem lends itself to solution using an expert system approach. A prototype has been developed and is currently under evaluation in the industry. Results so far have demonstrated both the feasibility and benefits of the expert system as a design aid.

Tenant mix variety in regional shopping centres: some UK empirical analyses

The variety and quality of the tenant mix within a shopping centre is a key concern in shopping centre management. Tenant mix determines the extent of externalities between outlets in the centre, helps establish the image of the centre and, as a result, determines the attractiveness of the centre for consumers. This then translates into sales and rents. However, the management of tenant mix has largely been based on perceived “optimum” arrangements and industry rules of thumb. This paper attempts to model the impact of tenant mix on the rent paid by retailers in larger UK shopping centres and, hence, the returns made by shopping centre landlords. It extends work on shopping centre rent determination (see Working Paper 10/03) utilising a database of 148 regional shopping centres in the UK, with detailed data for over 1900 tenants. Econometric models test the relationship between rental levels and the levels of retail concentration and diversity, while controlling for a range of continuous and qualitative characteristics of each tenant, each retail product, and each shopping centre. Factor analysis is then used to extract the core retail and service categories from the tenant lists of the 148 shopping centres. The factor scores from these core retailer factors are then tested against rent payable. The results from the empirical analysis allow us to generate some clear analytical and empirical implications for optimal retail management.

Top down influence on visuo-tactile interaction modulates neural oscillatory responses

Multisensory integration involves bottom-up as well as top-down processes. We investigated the influences of top-down control on the neural responses to multisensory stimulation using EEG recording and time-frequency analyses. Participants were stimulated at the index or thumb of the left hand, using tactile vibrators mounted on a foam cube. Simultaneously they received a visual distractor from a light emitting diode adjacent to the active vibrator (spatially congruent trial) or adjacent to the inactive vibrator (spatially incongruent trial). The task was to respond to the elevation of the tactile stimulus (upper or lower), while ignoring the simultaneous visual distractor. To manipulate top-down control on this multisensory stimulation, the proportion of spatially congruent (vs. incongruent) trials was changed across blocks. Our results reveal that the behavioral cost of responding to incongruent than congruent trials (i.e., the crossmodal congruency effect) was modulated by the proportion of congruent trials. Most importantly, the EEG gamma band response and the gamma-theta coupling were also affected by this modulation of top-down control, whereas the late theta band response related to the congruency effect was not. These findings suggest that gamma band response is more than a marker of multisensory binding, being also sensitive to the correspondence between expected and actual multisensory stimulation. By contrast, theta band response was affected by congruency but appears to be largely immune to stimulation expectancy.

Enhancement of aged and denatured fingerprints using the cyanoacrylate fuming technique following dusting with amino acid-containing powders

We have carried out experiments to investigate the ageing of latent fingerprints deposited on black PVC over a period of 4-15 weeks. A thumbprint was used in each case and before deposition of the print the donor rubbed their thumb around their nose to add sebaceous deposits. We have studied the effect of heat, light and moisture and we find that moisture is the most significant factor in the degradation of the latent print. We have attempted to enhance these latent prints by dusting with valine powder or powders composed of valine mixed with gold or red fluorescent commercial fingerprint powders. In order to make a direct comparison between “treated” and “untreated” prints, the prints were cut in half with one half being “treated” and one not. Our studies show the best results being obtained when powders of valine and red fluorescent powders are applied prior to cyanoacrylate fuming.

Critical slip and time dependence in sea ice friction

Recent research into sea ice friction has focussed on ways to provide a model which maintains much of the clarity and simplicity of Amonton's law, yet also accounts for memory effects. One promising avenue of research has been to adapt the rate- and state- dependent models which are prevalent in rock friction. In such models it is assumed that there is some fixed critical slip displacement, which is effectively a measure of the displacement over which memory effects might be considered important. Here we show experimentally that a fixed critical slip displacement is not a valid assumption in ice friction, whereas a constant critical slip time appears to hold across a range of parameters and scales. As a simple rule of thumb, memory effects persist to a significant level for 10 s. We then discuss the implications of this finding for modelling sea ice friction and for our understanding of friction in general.

Managing a duopolistic water market with confirmed proposals. An experiment

We report results from experimental water markets in which owners of two different sources of water supply water to households and farmers. The final water quality consumed by each type of consumer is determined through mixing of qualities from two different resources. We compare the standard duopolistic market structure with an alternative market clearing mechanism inspired by games with confirmed strategies (which have been shown to yield collusive outcomes). As in the static case, complex dynamic markets operating under a confirmed proposals protocol yield less efficient outcomes because coordination among independent suppliers has the usual effects of restricting output and increasing prices to the users. Our results suggest that, when market mechanisms are used to allocate water to its users, the rule of thumb used by competition authorities can also serve as a guide towards water market regulation.

A Computer Vision Framework For Finger-Tapping Evaluation In Parkinson's Disease

Objective: To define and evaluate a Computer-Vision (CV) method for scoring Paced Finger-Tapping (PFT) in Parkinson's disease (PD) using quantitative motion analysis of index-fingers and to compare the obtained scores to the UPDRS (Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale) finger-taps (FT). Background: The naked-eye evaluation of PFT in clinical practice results in coarse resolution to determine PD status. Besides, sensor mechanisms for PFT evaluation may cause patients discomfort. In order to avoid cost and effort of applying wearable sensors, a CV system for non-invasive PFT evaluation is introduced. Methods: A database of 221 PFT videos from 6 PD patients was processed. The subjects were instructed to position their hands above their shoulders besides the face and tap the index-finger against the thumb consistently with speed. They were facing towards a pivoted camera during recording. The videos were rated by two clinicians between symptom levels 0-to-3 using UPDRS-FT. The CV method incorporates a motion analyzer and a face detector. The method detects the face of testee in each video-frame. The frame is split into two images from face-rectangle center. Two regions of interest are located in each image to detect index-finger motion of left and right hands respectively. The tracking of opening and closing phases of dominant hand index-finger produces a tapping time-series. This time-series is normalized by the face height. The normalization calibrates the amplitude in tapping signal which is affected by the varying distance between camera and subject (farther the camera, lesser the amplitude). A total of 15 features were classified using K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier to characterize the symptoms levels in UPDRS-FT. The target ratings provided by the raters were averaged. Results: A 10-fold cross validation in KNN classified 221 videos between 3 symptom levels with 75% accuracy. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 82.6% supports feasibility of the obtained features to replicate clinical assessments. Conclusions: The system is able to track index-finger motion to estimate tapping symptoms in PD. It has certain advantages compared to other technologies (e.g. magnetic sensors, accelerometers etc.) for PFT evaluation to improve and automate the ratings

Efeitos de gastos do governo em um modelo dinâmico estocástico de equilíbrio geral com restrições financeiras

Recentes evidências empíricas sugerem que o consumo aumenta em resposta a um aumento nos gastos do governo. Essa descoberta não pode ser facilmente reconciliada com os resultados dos modelos de otimização dos ciclos econômicos. Para testar tais evidências utilizamos uma versão simplificada do modelo novo keynesiano padrão estendido em Galí, López-Salido e Vallés (2007), para permitir a presença de consumidores Rule-of-Thumb. Mostramos como a interação desses últimos, sob a hipótese de rigidez de preços e financiamento via déficits, pode explicar as evidências existentes sobre os efeitos dos gastos do governo.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?

Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.

Produtividade da cultura da melancia em função de fontes e doses de potássio

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)