Sur des estimateurs et des tests non-paramétriques pour des distributions et copules conditionnelles

Pour modéliser un vecteur aléatoire en présence d'une co-variable, on peut d'abord faire appel à la fonction de répartition conditionnelle. En effet, cette dernière contient toute l'information ayant trait au comportement du vecteur étant donné une valeur prise par la co-variable. Il peut aussi être commode de séparer l'étude du comportement conjoint du vecteur de celle du comportement individuel de chacune de ses composantes. Pour ce faire, on utilise la copule conditionnelle, qui caractérise complètement la dépendance conditionnelle régissant les différentes associations entre les variables. Dans chacun des cas, la mise en oeuvre d'une stratégie d'estimation et d'inférence s'avère une étape essentielle à leur utilisant en pratique. Lorsqu'aucune information n'est disponible a priori quant à un choix éventuel de modèle, il devient pertinent d'opter pour des méthodes non-paramétriques. Le premier article de cette thèse, co-écrit par Jean-François Quessy et moi-même, propose une façon de ré-échantillonner des estimateurs non-paramétriques pour des distributions conditionnelles. Cet article a été publié dans la revue Statistics and Computing. En autres choses, nous y montrons comment obtenir des intervalles de confiance pour des statistiques s'écrivant en terme de la fonction de répartition conditionnelle. Le second article de cette thèse, co-écrit par Taoufik Bouezmarni, Jean-François Quessy et moi-même, s'affaire à étudier deux estimateurs non-paramétriques de la copule conditionnelles, proposés par Gijbels et coll. en présence de données sérielles. Cet article a été soumis dans la revue Statistics and Probability Letters. Nous identifions la distribution asymptotique de chacun de ces estimateurs pour des données mélangeantes. Le troisième article de cette thèse, co-écrit par Taoufik Bouezmarni, Jean-François Quessy et moi-même, propose une nouvelle façon d'étudier les relations de causalité entre deux séries chronologiques. Cet article a été soumis dans la revue Electronic Journal of Statistics. Dans cet article, nous utilisons la copule conditionnelle pour caractériser une version locale de la causalité au sens de Granger. Puis, nous proposons des mesures de causalité basées sur la copule conditionnelle. Le quatrième article de cette thèse, co-écrit par Taoufik Bouezmarni, Anouar El Ghouch et moi-même, propose une méthode qui permette d'estimer adéquatement la copule conditionnelle en présence de données incomplètes. Cet article a été soumis dans la revue Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. Les propriétés asymptotiques de l'estimateur proposé y sont aussi étudiées. Finalement, la dernière partie de cette thèse contient un travail inédit, qui porte sur la mise en oeuvre de tests statistiques permettant de déterminer si deux copules conditionnelles sont concordantes. En plus d'y présenter des résultats originaux, cette étude illustre l'utilité des techniques de ré-échantillonnage développées dans notre premier article.

Tests of ecogeographical relationships in a non-native species: what rules avian morphology?

The capacity of non-native species to undergo rapid adaptive change provides opportunities to research contemporary evolution through natural experiments. This capacity is particularly true when considering ecogeographical rules, to which non-native species have been shown to conform within relatively short periods of time. Ecogeographical rules explain predictable spatial patterns of morphology, physiology, life history and behaviour. We tested whether Australian populations of non-native starling, Sturnus vulgaris, introduced to the country approximately 150 years ago, exhibited predicted environmental clines in body size, appendage size and heart size (Bergmann's, Allen's and Hesse's rules, respectively). Adult starlings (n = 411) were collected from 28 localities from across eastern Australia from 2011 to 2012. Linear models were constructed to examine the relationships between morphology and local environment. Patterns of variation in body mass and bill surface area were consistent with Bergmann's and Allen's rules, respectively (small body size and larger bill size in warmer climates), with maximum summer temperature being a strongly weighted predictor of both variables. In the only intraspecific test of Hesse's rule in birds to date, we found no evidence to support the idea that relative heart size will be larger in individuals which live in colder climates. Our study does provide evidence that maximum temperature is a strong driver of morphological adaptation for starlings in Australia. The changes in morphology presented here demonstrate the potential for avian species to make rapid adaptive changes in relation to a changing climate to ameliorate the effects of heat stress.

Utility and safety of invasive (fractional flow reserve) and non-invasive (cardiac magnetic resonance imaging) diagnostic tests in patients with NSTEMI

A prospective randomised controlled clinical trial of treatment decisions informed by invasive functional testing of coronary artery disease severity compared with standard angiography-guided management was implemented in 350 patients with a recent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) admitted to 6 hospitals in the National Health Service. The main aims of this study were to examine the utility of both invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) and non-invasive cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) amongst patients with a recent diagnosis of NSTEMI. In summary, the findings of this thesis are: (1) the use of FFR combined with intravenous adenosine was feasible and safe amongst patients with NSTEMI and has clinical utility; (2) there was discordance between the visual, angiographic estimation of lesion significance and FFR; (3). The use of FFR led to changes in treatment strategy and an increase in prescription of medical therapy in the short term compared with an angiographically guided strategy; (4) in the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 12 months follow up was similar in the two groups. Cardiac MRI was used in a subset of patients enrolled in two hospitals in the West of Scotland. T1 and T2 mapping methods were used to delineate territories of acute myocardial injury. T1 and T2 mapping were superior when compared with conventional T2-weighted dark blood imaging for estimation of the ischaemic area-at-risk (AAR) with less artifact in NSTEMI. There was poor correlation between the angiographic AAR and MRI methods of AAR estimation in patients with NSTEMI. FFR had a high accuracy at predicting inducible perfusion defects demonstrated on stress perfusion MRI. This thesis describes the largest randomized trial published to date specifically looking at the clinical utility of FFR in the NSTEMI population. We have provided evidence of the diagnostic and clinical utility of FFR in this group of patients and provide evidence to inform larger studies. This thesis also describes the largest ever MRI cohort, including with myocardial stress perfusion assessments, specifically looking at the NSTEMI population. We have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy of FFR to predict reversible ischaemia as referenced to a non-invasive gold standard with MRI. This thesis has also shown the futility of using dark blood oedema imaging amongst all comer NSTEMI patients when compared to novel T1 and T2 mapping methods.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease : can ultrasound assist in early diagnosis of prediabetes and delay progression to type2 diabetes mellitus

Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) is a condition that is frequently seen but seldom investigated. Until recently, NAFLD was considered benign, self-limiting and unworthy of further investigation. This opinion is based on retrospective studies with relatively small numbers and scant follow-up of histology data. (1) The prevalence for adults, in the USA is, 30%, and NAFLD is recognized as a common and increasing form of liver disease in the paediatric population (1). Australian data, from New South Wales, suggests the prevalence of NAFLD in “healthy” 15 year olds as being 10%.(2) Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a condition where fat progressively invades the liver parenchyma. The degree of infiltration ranges from simple steatosis (fat only) to steatohepatitis (fat and inflammation) steatohepatitis plus fibrosis (fat, inflammation and fibrosis) to cirrhosis (replacement of liver texture by scarred, fibrotic and non functioning tissue).Non-alcoholic fatty liver is diagnosed by exclusion rather than inclusion. None of the currently available diagnostic techniques -liver biopsy, liver function tests (LFT) or Imaging; ultrasound, Computerised tomography (CT) or Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) are specific for non-alcoholic fatty liver. An association exists between NAFLD, Non Alcoholic Steatosis Hepatitis (NASH) and irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and hepatoma. However, a more pervasive aspect of NAFLD is the association with Metabolic Syndrome. This Syndrome is categorised by increased insulin resistance (IR) and NAFLD is thought to be the hepatic representation. Those with NAFLD have an increased risk of death (3) and it is an independent predictor of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (1). Liver biopsy is considered the gold standard for diagnosis, (4), and grading and staging, of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Fatty-liver is diagnosed when there is macrovesicular steatosis with displacement of the nucleus to the edge of the cell and at least 5% of the hepatocytes are seen to contain fat (4).Steatosis represents fat accumulation in liver tissue without inflammation. However, it is only called non-alcoholic fatty liver disease when alcohol - >20gms-30gms per day (5), has been excluded from the diet. Both non-alcoholic and alcoholic fatty liver are identical on histology. (4).LFT’s are indicative, not diagnostic. They indicate that a condition may be present but they are unable to diagnosis what the condition is. When a patient presents with raised fasting blood glucose, low HDL (high density lipoprotein), and elevated fasting triacylglycerols they are likely to have NAFLD. (6) Of the imaging techniques MRI is the least variable and the most reproducible. With CT scanning liver fat content can be semi quantitatively estimated. With increasing hepatic steatosis, liver attenuation values decrease by 1.6 Hounsfield units for every milligram of triglyceride deposited per gram of liver tissue (7). Ultrasound permits early detection of fatty liver, often in the preclinical stages before symptoms are present and serum alterations occur. Earlier, accurate reporting of this condition will allow appropriate intervention resulting in better patient health outcomes. References 1. Chalasami N. Does fat alone cause significant liver disease: It remains unclear whether simple steatosis is truly benign. American Gastroenterological Association Perspectives, February/March 2008 www.gastro.org/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5097 Viewed 20th October, 2008 2. Booth, M. George, J.Denney-Wilson, E: The population prevalence of adverse concentrations with adiposity of liver tests among Australian adolescents. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health.2008 November 3. Catalano, D, Trovato, GM, Martines, GF, Randazzo, M, Tonzuso, A. Bright liver, body composition and insulin resistance changes with nutritional intervention: a follow-up study .Liver Int.2008; February 1280-9 4. Choudhury, J, Sanysl, A. Clinical aspects of Fatty Liver Disease. Semin in Liver Dis. 2004:24 (4):349-62 5. Dionysus Study Group. Drinking factors as cofactors of risk for alcohol induced liver change. Gut. 1997; 41 845-50 6. Preiss, D, Sattar, N. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an overview of prevalence, diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment considerations. Clin Sci.2008; 115 141-50 7. American Gastroenterological Association. Technical review on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Gastroenterology.2002; 123: 1705-25

Advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

During the past decade, a significant amount of research has been conducted internationally with the aim of developing, implementing, and verifying "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures. Application of these methods permits comprehensive assessment of the actual failure modes and ultimate strengths of structural systems in practical design situations, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. Advanced analysis has the potential to extend the creativity of structural engineers and simplify the design process, while ensuring greater economy and more uniform safety with respect to the ultimate limit state. The application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only members with compact cross-sections that are not subject to the effects of local buckling. This precluded the use of advanced analysis from the design of steel frames comprising a significant proportion of the most commonly used Australian sections, which are non-compact and subject to the effects of local buckling. This thesis contains a detailed description of research conducted over the past three years in an attempt to extend the scope of advanced analysis by developing methods that include the effects of local buckling in a non-linear analysis formulation, suitable for practical design of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. Two alternative concentrated plasticity formulations are presented in this thesis: the refined plastic hinge method and the pseudo plastic zone method. Both methods implicitly account for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the methods for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections has been established by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. Both the refined plastic hinge and pseudo plastic zone methods are more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations. For example, the pseudo plastic zone method predicts the ultimate strength of the analytical benchmark frames with an average conservative error of less than one percent, and has an acceptable maximum unconservati_ve error of less than five percent. The pseudo plastic zone model can allow the design capacity to be increased by up to 30 percent for simple frames, mainly due to the consideration of inelastic redistribution. The benefits may be even more significant for complex frames with significant redundancy, which provides greater scope for inelastic redistribution. The analytical benchmark frame solutions were obtained using a distributed plasticity shell finite element model. A detailed description of this model and the results of all the 120 benchmark analyses are provided. The model explicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. Its accuracy was verified by comparison with a variety of analytical solutions and the results of three large-scale experimental tests of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. A description of the experimental method and test results is also provided.

Test and evaluation of non conventional instrument transformers and sampled value process bus on Powerlink's transmission network

IEC 61850 Process Bus technology has the potential to improve cost, performance and reliability of substation design. Substantial costs associated with copper wiring (designing, documentation, construction, commissioning and troubleshooting) can be reduced with the application of digital Process Bus technology, especially those based upon international standards. An IEC 61850-9-2 based sampled value Process Bus is an enabling technology for the application of Non-Conventional Instrument Transformers (NCIT). Retaining the output of the NCIT in its native digital form, rather than conversion to an analogue output, allows for improved transient performance, dynamic range, safety, reliability and reduced cost. In this paper we report on a pilot installation using NCITs communicating across a switched Ethernet network using the UCAIug Implementation Guideline for IEC 61850-9-2 (9-2 Light Edition or 9-2LE). This system was commissioned in a 275 kV Line Reactor bay at Powerlink Queensland’s Braemar substation in 2009, with sampled value protection IEDs 'shadowing' the existing protection system. The results of commissioning tests and twelve months of service experience using a Fibre Optic Current Transformer (FOCT) from Smart Digital Optics (SDO) are presented, including the response of the system to fault conditions. A number of remaining issues to be resolved to enable wide-scale deployment of NCITs and IEC 61850-9-2 Process Bus technology are also discussed.

Section moment capacity tests of LiteSteel Beams

The LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed hollow flange channel section developed by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills using their patented dual electric resistance welding and automated continuous roll-forming process. It has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. In addition to this unique geometry, the LSB sections also have unique characteristics relating to their stress-strain curves, residual stresses, initial geometric imperfections and hollow flanges that are not encountered in conventional hot-rolled and cold-formed steel channel sections. An experimental study including 20 section moment capacity tests was therefore conducted to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSB flexural members. The presence of inelastic reserve bending capacity in these beams was investigated in detail although the current design rules generally limit the section moment capacities of cold-formed steel members to their first yield moments. The ultimate moment capacities from the tests were compared with the section moment capacities predicted by the current cold-formed and hot-rolled steel design standards. It was found that compact and non-compact LSB sections have greater moment capacities than their first yield moments. The current cold-formed steel design standards were found to be conservative in predicting the section moment capacities of compact and non-compact LSB sections while the hot-rolled steel design standards were able to better predict them. This paper has shown that suitable modifications are needed to the current design rules to allow the inclusion of available inelastic bending capacities of LSBs in design.

The effect of exercise intensity on fat oxidation and non-exercise activity thermogenesis in overweight/obese men

It is frequently reported that the actual weight loss achieved through exercise interventions is less than theoretically expected. Amongst other compensatory adjustments that accompany exercise training (e.g., increases in resting metabolic rate and energy intake), a possible cause of the less than expected weight loss is a failure to produce a marked increase in total daily energy expenditure due to a compensatory reduction in non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). Therefore, there is a need to understand how behaviour is modified in response to exercise interventions. The proposed benefits of exercise training are numerous, including changes to fat oxidation. Given that a diminished capacity to oxidise fat could be a factor in the aetiology of obesity, an exercise training intensity that optimises fat oxidation in overweight/obese individuals would improve impaired fat oxidation, and potentially reduce health risks that are associated with obesity. To improve our understanding of the effectiveness of exercise for weight management, it is important to ensure exercise intensity is appropriately prescribed, and to identify and monitor potential compensatory behavioural changes consequent to exercise training. In line with the gaps in the literature, three studies were performed. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the effect of acute bouts of moderate- and high-intensity walking exercise on NEAT in overweight and obese men. Sixteen participants performed a single bout of either moderate-intensity walking exercise (MIE) or high-intensity walking exercise (HIE) on two separate occasions. The MIE consisted of walking for 60-min on a motorised treadmill at 6 km.h-1. The 60-min HIE session consisted of walking in 5-min intervals at 6 km.h-1 and 10% grade followed by 5-min at 0% grade. NEAT was assessed by accelerometer three days before, on the day of, and three days after the exercise sessions. There was no significant difference in NEAT vector magnitude (counts.min-1) between the pre-exercise period (days 1-3) and the exercise day (day 4) for either protocol. In addition, there was no change in NEAT during the three days following the MIE session, however NEAT increased by 16% on day 7 (post-exercise) compared with the exercise day (P = 0.32). During the post-exercise period following the HIE session, NEAT was increased by 25% on day 7 compared with the exercise day (P = 0.08), and by 30-33% compared with the pre-exercise period (day 1, day 2 and day 3); P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, respectively. To conclude, a single bout of either MIE or HIE did not alter NEAT on the exercise day or on the first two days following the exercise session. However, extending the monitoring of NEAT allowed the detection of a 48 hour delay in increased NEAT after performing HIE. A longer-term intervention is needed to determine the effect of accumulated exercise sessions over a week on NEAT. In Study 2, there were two primary aims. The first aim was to test the reliability of a discontinuous incremental exercise protocol (DISCON-FATmax) to identify the workload at which fat oxidation is maximised (FATmax). Ten overweight and obese sedentary male men (mean BMI of 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2 and mean age of 28.0 ¡Ó 5.3 y) participated in this study and performed two identical DISCON-FATmax tests one week apart. Each test consisted of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The starting work load of 28 W was increased every 4-min using 14 W increments followed by 2-min rest intervals. When the respiratory exchange ratio was consistently >1.0, the workload was increased by 14 W every 2-min until volitional exhaustion. Fat oxidation was measured by indirect calorimetry. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2peak, %ƒtV O2peak and %Wmax at which FATmax occurred during the two tests were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 and 0.18 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1); 29.7 ¡Ó 7.8 and 28.3 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 42.3 ¡Ó 7.2 and 42.6 ¡Ó 10.2 (%ƒtV O2max) and 36.4 ¡Ó 8.5 and 35.4 ¡Ó 10.9 (%), respectively. A paired-samples T-test revealed a significant difference in FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests (t = 2.65, P = 0.03). The mean difference in FATmax was 0.05 (g.min-1) with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.01 to 0.18. Paired-samples T-test, however, revealed no significant difference in the workloads (i.e. W) between the tests, t (9) = 0.70, P = 0.4. The intra-class correlation coefficient for FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests was 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.96, P < 0.01). However, Bland-Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in FATmax (g.min-1) related to W between the two tests; 11 ¡Ó 14 (W) (4.1 ¡Ó 5.3 ƒtV O2peak (%)).These data demonstrate two important phenomena associated with exercise-induced substrate oxidation; firstly, that maximal fat oxidation derived from a discontinuous FATmax protocol differed statistically between repeated tests, and secondly, there was large variability in the workload corresponding with FATmax. The second aim of Study 2 was to test the validity of a DISCON-FATmax protocol by comparing maximal fat oxidation (g.min-1) determined by DISCON-FATmax with fat oxidation (g.min-1) during a continuous exercise protocol using a constant load (CONEX). Ten overweight and obese sedentary males (BMI = 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2; age = 28.0 ¡Ó 4.5 y) with a ƒtV O2max of 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 ml.kg-1.min-1 performed a DISCON-FATmax test consisting of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The 1-h CONEX protocol used the workload from the DISCON-FATmax to determine FATmax. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2max, %ƒtV O2max and workload at which FATmax occurred during the DISCON-FATmax were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 (g.min-1); 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 43.8 ¡Ó 7.3 (%ƒtV O2max) and 58.8 ¡Ó 19.6 (W), respectively. The mean fat oxidation during the 1-h CONEX protocol was 0.19 ¡Ó 0.07 (g.min-1). A paired-samples T-test revealed no significant difference in fat oxidation (g.min-1) between DISCON-FATmax and CONEX, t (9) = 1.85, P = 0.097 (two-tailed). There was also no significant correlation in fat oxidation between the DISCON-FATmax and CONEX (R=0.51, P = 0.14). Bland- Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in fat oxidation between the DISCONFATmax and CONEX; the upper limit of agreement was 0.13 (g.min-1) and the lower limit of agreement was ¡V0.03 (g.min-1). These data suggest that the CONEX and DISCONFATmax protocols did not elicit different rates of fat oxidation (g.min-1). However, the individual variability in fat oxidation was large, particularly in the DISCON-FATmax test. Further research is needed to ascertain the validity of graded exercise tests for predicting fat oxidation during constant load exercise sessions. The aim of Study 3 was to compare the impact of two different intensities of four weeks of exercise training on fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite in overweight and obese men. Using a cross-over design 11 participants (BMI = 29 ¡Ó 4 kg/m2; age = 27 ¡Ó 4 y) participated in a training study and were randomly assigned initially to: [1] a lowintensity (45%ƒtV O2max) exercise (LIT) or [2] a high-intensity interval (alternate 30 s at 90%ƒtV O2max followed by 30 s rest) exercise (HIIT) 40-min duration, three times a week. Participants completed four weeks of supervised training and between cross-over had a two week washout period. At baseline and the end of each exercise intervention,ƒtV O2max, fat oxidation, and NEAT were measured. Fat oxidation was determined during a standard 30-min continuous exercise bout at 45%ƒtV O2max. During the steady state exercise expired gases were measured intermittently for 5-min periods and HR was monitored continuously. In each training period, NEAT was measured for seven consecutive days using an accelerometer (RT3) the week before, at week 3 and the week after training. Subjective appetite sensations and food preferences were measured immediately before and after the first exercise session every week for four weeks during both LIT and HIIT. The mean fat oxidation rate during the standard continuous exercise bout at baseline for both LIT and HIIT was 0.14 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1). After four weeks of exercise training, the mean fat oxidation was 0.178 ¡Ó 0.04 and 0.183 ¡Ó 0.04 g.min-1 for LIT and HIIT, respectively. The mean NEAT (counts.min-1) was 45 ¡Ó 18 at baseline, 55 ¡Ó 22 and 44 ¡Ó 16 during training, and 51 ¡Ó 14 and 50 ¡Ó 21 after training for LIT and HIIT, respectively. There was no significant difference in fat oxidation between LIT and HIIT. Moreover, although not statistically significant, there was some evidence to suggest that LIT and HIIT tend to increase fat oxidation during exercise at 45% ƒtV O2max (P = 0.14 and 0.08, respectively). The order of training treatment did not significantly influence changes in fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite. NEAT (counts.min-1) was not significantly different in the week following training for either LIT or HIIT. Although not statistically significant (P = 0.08), NEAT was 20% lower during week 3 of exercise training in HIIT compared with LIT. Examination of appetite sensations revealed differences in the intensity of hunger, with higher ratings after LIT compared with HIIT. No differences were found in preferences for high-fat sweet foods between LIT and HIIT. In conclusion, the results of this thesis suggest that while fat oxidation during steady state exercise was not affected by the level of exercise intensity, there is strong evidence to suggest that intense exercise could have a debilitative effect on NEAT.

Toward non-invasive detection of concealed energetic materials in-field under ambient-light conditions

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is demonstrated for the non-contact detection of energetic materials concealed within non-transparent, diffusely scattering containers. A modified design of an inverse SORS probe has been developed and tested. The SORS probe has been successfully used for the detection of various energetic substances inside different types of plastic containers. The tests have been successfully conducted under incandescent and fluorescent background lights as well as under daylight conditions, using a non-contact working distance of 6 cm. The interrogation times for the detection of the substances were less than 1 minute in each case, highlighting the suitability of the device for near real-time detection of concealed hazards in the field. The device has potential applications in forensic analysis and homeland security investigations.

Outcomes following operative and non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures: a prospective, observational cohort study of 47 patients

Background Although the non-operative management of closed humeral midshaft fractures has been advocated for years, the increasing popularity of operative intervention has left the optimal treatment choice unclear. Objective To compare the outcomes of operative and non-operative treatment of traumatic closed humeral midshaft fractures in adult patients. Methods A multicentre prospective comparative cohort study across 20 centres was conducted. Patients with AO type 12 A2, A3 and B2 fractures were treated with a functional brace or a retrograde-inserted unreamed humeral nail. Follow-up measurements were taken at 6, 12 and 52 weeks after the injury. The primary outcome was fracture healing after 1 year. Secondary outcomes included sub-items of the Constant score, general patient satisfaction, complications and cost-effectiveness parameters. Functions of the uninjured extremity were used as reference parameters. Intention-to-treat analysis was applied with the use of t-tests, Fisher’s exact tests, Mann–Whitney U-tests and adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results Forty-seven patients were included. The patient sample consisted of 23 women and 24 men, with a mean age of 52.7 years (range 17–86 years). Of the 47 cases, 14 were treated non-operatively and 33 operatively. The follow-up rate at 1 year was 81%. After 1 year, 11 fractures (100%) healed in the non-operative group and at least 24 fractures (≥89%) healed in the operative group [1 non-union patient (4%) and no data for 2 patients (7%)]. There were no significant differences in pain, range of motion (ROM) of the shoulder and elbow, and return to work after 6 weeks, 12 weeks and 1 year. Although operatively treated patients showed significantly greater shoulder abduction strength (p = 0.036), elbow flexion strength (p = 0.021), functional hand positioning (p = 0.008) and return to recreational activities (p = 0.043) after 6 weeks, no statistically significant differences existed in any outcome measure at the 1-year follow-up. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures can be expected to have similar functional outcomes and patient satisfaction at 1 year, despite an early benefit to operative treatment. If no radiological evidence of fracture healing exists in non-operatively treated patients during early follow-up, a switch to surgical treatment results in good functional outcomes and patient satisfaction. Keywords: Humeral shaft fracture, Non-operative treatment, Functional brace, Operative treatment, Unreamed humeral nail (UHN), Prospective, Cohort study

Near infrared spectroscopy for non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage

There is a need for an accurate real-time quantitative system that would enhance decision-making in the treatment of osteoarthritis. To achieve this objective, significant research is required that will enable articular cartilage properties to be measured and categorized for health and functionality without the need for laboratory tests involving biopsies for pathological evaluation. Such a system would provide the capability of access to the internal condition of the cartilage matrix and thus extend the vision-based arthroscopy that is currently used beyond the subjective evaluation of surgeons. The system required must be able to non-destructively probe the entire thickness of the cartilage and its immediate subchondral bone layer. In this thesis, near infrared spectroscopy is investigated for the purpose mentioned above. The aim is to relate it to the structure and load bearing properties of the cartilage matrix to the near infrared absorption spectrum and establish functional relationships that will provide objective, quantitative and repeatable categorization of cartilage condition outside the area of visible degradation in a joint. Based on results from traditional mechanical testing, their innovative interpretation and relationship with spectroscopic data, new parameters were developed. These were then evaluated for their consistency in discriminating between healthy viable and degraded cartilage. The mechanical and physico-chemical properties were related to specific regions of the near infrared absorption spectrum that were identified as part of the research conducted for this thesis. The relationships between the tissue's near infrared spectral response and the new parameters were modeled using multivariate statistical techniques based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). With significantly high levels of statistical correlation, the modeled relationships were demonstrated to possess considerable potential in predicting the properties of unknown tissue samples in a quick and non-destructive manner. In order to adapt near infrared spectroscopy for clinical applications, a balance between probe diameter and the number of active transmit-receive optic fibres must be optimized. This was achieved in the course of this research, resulting in an optimal probe configuration that could be adapted for joint tissue evaluation. Furthermore, as a proof-of-concept, a protocol for obtaining the new parameters from the near infrared absorption spectra of cartilage was developed and implemented in a graphical user interface (GUI)-based software, and used to assess cartilage-on-bone samples in vitro. This conceptual implementation has been demonstrated, in part by the individual parametric relationship with the near infrared absorption spectrum, the capacity of the proposed system to facilitate real-time, non-destructive evaluation of cartilage matrix integrity. In summary, the potential of the optical near infrared spectroscopy for evaluating articular cartilage and bone laminate has been demonstrated in this thesis. The approach could have a spin-off for other soft tissues and organs of the body. It builds on the earlier work of the group at QUT, enhancing the near infrared component of the ongoing research on developing a tool for cartilage evaluation that goes beyond visual and subjective methods.

Experimental studies of non-load bearing steel wall systems under fire conditions

Fire safety of buildings has been recognised as very important by the building industry and the community at large. Traditionally, increased fire rating is provided by simply adding more plasterboards to light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls, which is inefficient. Many research studies have been undertaken to investigate the thermal behaviour of traditional LSF stud wall systems under standard fire conditions. However, no research has been undertaken on the thermal behaviour of LSF stud walls using the recently proposed composite panel. Extensive fire testing of both non-load bearing and load bearing wall panels was conducted in this research based on the standard time-temperature curve in AS1530.4. Three groups of LSF wall specimens were tested with no insulation, cavity insulation and the new composite panel based on an external insulation layer between plasterboards. This paper presents the details of this experimental study into the thermal performance of non-load bearing walls lined with various configurations of plasterboard and insulation. Extensive descriptive and numerical results of the tested non-load bearing wall panels given in this paper provide a thorough understanding of their thermal behaviour, and valuable time-temperature data that can be used to validate numerical models. Test results showed that the innovative composite stud wall systems outperformed the traditional stud wall systems in terms of their thermal performance, giving a much higher fire rating.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.

The individual and interactive relationship between long chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and physical activity as predictors of cognition in cognitively impaired and non-impaired older adults

Alterations in cognitive function are characteristic of the aging process in humans and other animals. However, the nature of these age related changes in cognition is complex and is likely to be influenced by interactions between genetic predispositions and environmental factors resulting in dynamic fluctuations within and between individuals. These inter and intra-individual fluctuations are evident in both so-called normal cognitive aging and at the onset of cognitive pathology. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), thought to be a prodromal phase of dementia, represents perhaps the final opportunity to mitigate cognitive declines that may lead to terminal conditions such as dementia. The prognosis for people with MCI is mixed with the evidence suggesting that many will remain stable within 10-years of diagnosis, many will improve, and many will transition to dementia. If the characteristics of people who do not progress to dementia from MCI can be identified and replicated in others it may be possible to reduce or delay dementia onset, thus reducing a growing personal and public health burden. Furthermore, if MCI onset can be prevented or delayed, the burden of cognitive decline in aging populations worldwide may be reduced. A cognitive domain that is sensitive to the effects of advancing age, and declines in which have been shown to presage the onset of dementia in MCI patients, is executive function. Moreover, environmental factors such as diet and physical activity have been shown to affect performance on tests of executive function. For example, improvements in executive function have been demonstrated as a result of increased aerobic and anaerobic physical activity and, although the evidence is not as strong, findings from dietary interventions suggest certain nutrients may preserve or improve executive functions in old age. These encouraging findings have been demonstrated in older adults with MCI and their non-impaired peers. However, there are some gaps in the literature that need to be addressed. For example, little is known about the effect on cognition of an interaction between diet and physical activity. Both are important contributors to health and wellbeing, and a growing body of evidence attests to their importance in mental and cognitive health in aging individuals. Yet physical activity and diet are rarely considered together in the context of cognitive function. There is also little known about potential underlying biological mechanisms that might explain the physical activity/diet/cognition relationship. The first aim of this program of research was to examine the individual and interactive role of physical activity and diet, specifically long chain polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption(LCn3) as predictors of MCI status. The second aim is to examine executive function in MCI in the context of the individual and interactive effects of physical activity and LCn3.. A third aim was to explore the role of immune and endocrine system biomarkers as possible mediators in the relationship between LCn3, physical activity and cognition. Study 1a was a cross-sectional analysis of MCI status as a function of erythrocyte proportions of an interaction between physical activity and LCn3. The marine based LCn3s eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) have both received support in the literature as having cognitive benefits, although comparisons of the relative benefits of EPA or DHA, particularly in relation to the aetiology of MCI, are rare. Furthermore, a limited amount of research has examined the cognitive benefits of physical activity in terms of MCI onset. No studies have examined the potential interactive benefits of physical activity and either EPA or DHA. Eighty-four male and female adults aged 65 to 87 years, 50 with MCI and 34 without, participated in Study 1a. A logistic binary regression was conducted with MCI status as a dependent variable, and the individual and interactive relationships between physical activity and either EPA or DHA as predictors. Physical activity was measured using a questionnaire and specific physical activity categories were weighted according to the metabolic equivalents (METs) of each activity to create a physical activity intensity index (PAI). A significant relationship was identified between MCI outcome and the interaction between the PAI and EPA; participants with a higher PAI and higher erythrocyte proportions of EPA were more likely to be classified as non-MCI than their less active peers with less EPA. Study 1b was a randomised control trial using the participants from Study 1a who were identified with MCI. Given the importance of executive function as a determinant of progression to more severe forms of cognitive impairment and dementia, Study 1b aimed to examine the individual and interactive effect of physical activity and supplementation with either EPA or DHA on executive function in a sample of older adults with MCI. Fifty male and female participants were randomly allocated to supplementation groups to receive 6-months of supplementation with EPA, or DHA, or linoleic acid (LA), a long chain polyunsaturated omega-6 fatty acid not known for its cognitive enhancing properties. Physical activity was measured using the PAI from Study 1a at baseline and follow-up. Executive function was measured using five tests thought to measure different executive function domains. Erythrocyte proportions of EPA and DHA were higher at follow-up; however, PAI was not significantly different. There was also a significant improvement in three of the five executive function tests at follow-up. However, regression analyses revealed that none of the variance in executive function at follow-up was predicted by EPA, DHA, PAI, the EPA by PAI interaction, or the DHA by PAI interaction. The absence of an effect may be due to a small sample resulting in limited power to find an effect, the lack of change in physical activity over time in terms of volume and/or intensity, or a combination of both reduced power and no change in physical activity. Study 2a was a cross-sectional study using cognitively unimpaired older adults to examine the individual and interactive effects of LCn3 and PAI on executive function. Several possible explanations for the absence of an effect were identified. From this consideration of alternative explanations it was hypothesised that post-onset interventions with LCn3 either alone or in interation with self-reported physical activity may not be beneficial in MCI. Thus executive function responses to the individual and interactive effects of physical activity and LCn3 were examined in a sample of older male and female adults without cognitive impairment (n = 50). A further aim of study 2a was to operationalise executive function using principal components analysis (PCA) of several executive function tests. This approach was used firstly as a data reduction technique to overcome the task impurity problem, and secondly to examine the executive function structure of the sample for evidence of de-differentiation. Two executive function components were identified as a result of the PCA (EF 1 and EF 2). However, EPA, DHA, the PAI, or the EPA by PAI or DHA by PAI interactions did not account for any variance in the executive function components in subsequent hierarchical multiple regressions. Study 2b was an exploratory correlational study designed to explore the possibility that immune and endocrine system biomarkers may act as mediators of the relationship between LCn3, PAI, the interaction between LCn3 and PAI, and executive functions. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), an endocrine system growth hormone, and interleukin-6 (IL-6) an immune system cytokine involved in the acute inflammatory response, have both been shown to affect cognition including executive functions. Moreover, IGF-1 and IL-6 have been shown to be antithetical in so far as chronically increased IL-6 has been associated with reduced IGF-1 levels, a relationship that has been linked to age related morbidity. Further, physical activity and LCn3 have been shown to modulate levels of both IGF-1 and IL-6. Thus, it is possible that the cognitive enhancing effects of LCn3, physical activity or their interaction are mediated by changes in the balance between IL-6 and IGF-1. Partial and non-parametric correlations were conducted in a subsample of participants from Study 2a (n = 13) to explore these relationships. Correlations of interest did not reach significance; however, the coefficients were quite large for several relationships suggesting studies with larger samples may be warranted. In summary, the current program of research found some evidence supporting an interaction between EPA, not DHA, and higher energy expenditure via physical activity in differentiating between older adults with and without MCI. However, a RCT examining executive function in older adults with MCI found no support for increasing EPA or DHA while maintaining current levels of energy expenditure. Furthermore, a cross-sectional study examining executive function in older adults without MCI found no support for better executive function performance as a function of increased EPA or DHA consumption, greater energy expenditure via physical activity or an interaction between physical activity and either EPA or DHA. Finally, an examination of endocrine and immune system biomarkers revealed promising relationships in terms of executive function in non-MCI older adults particularly with respect to LCn3 and physical activity. Taken together, these findings demonstrate a potential benefit of increasing physical activity and LCn3 consumption, particularly EPA, in mitigating the risk of developing MCI. In contrast, no support was found for a benefit to executive function as a result of increased physical activity, LCn3 consumption or an interaction between physical activity and LCn3, in participants with and without MCI. These results are discussed with reference to previous findings in the literature including possible limitations and opportunities for future research.