Tourism life cycle, tourism competitiveness and upgrading strategies in the Caribbean

In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.

Methods to evaluate and strategies to improve the biocompatibility of dental materials and operative techniques

Objective. The general aim of this article is to describe the state-of-the-art of biocompatibility testing for dental materials, and present new strategies for improving operative dentistry techniques and the biocompatibility of dental materials as they relate to their interaction with the dentin-pulp complex.Methods. The literature was reviewed focusing on articles related to biocompatibilty testing, the dentin-pulp complex and new strategies and materials for operative dentistry. For this purpose, the PubMed database as well as 118 articles published in English from 1939 to 2014 were searched. Data concerning types of biological tests and standardization of in vitro and in vivo protocols employed to evaluate the cytotoxicity and biocompatibility of dental materials were also searched from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), International Standards Organization (ISO) and American National Standards Institute (ANSI).Results. While there is an ongoing search for feasible strategies in the molecular approach to direct the repair or regeneration of structures that form the oral tissues, it is necessary for professionals to master the clinical therapies available at present. In turn, these techniques must be applied based on knowledge of the morphological and physiological characteristics of the tissues involved, as well as the physical, mechanical and biologic properties of the biomaterials recommended for each specific situation. Thus, particularly within modern esthetic restorative dentistry, the use of minimally invasive operative techniques associated with the use of dental materials with excellent properties and scientifically proved by means of clinical and laboratory studies must be a routine for dentists. This professional and responsible attitude will certainly result in greater possibility of achieving clinical success, benefiting patients and dentists themselves.Signcance. This article provides a general and critical view of the relations that permeate the interaction between dental materials and the dentin-pulp complex, and establish real possibilities and strategies that favor biocompatibility of the present and new products used in Dentistry, which will certainly benefit clinicians and their patients. (C) 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for core resources was more consistent with the competitive refuge model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Development of bionanotechnological strategies for signal enhancement in nucleic acids biosensors

Nucleic acid biosensors represent a powerful tool for clinical and environmental pathogens detection. For applications such as point-of-care biosensing, it is fundamental to develop sensors that should be automatic, inexpensive, portable and require a professional skill of the user that should be as low as possible. With the goal of determining the presence of pathogens when present in very small amount, such as for the screening of pathogens in drinking water, an amplification step must be implemented. Often this type of determinations should be performed with simple, automatic and inexpensive hardware: the use of a chemical (or nanotechnological) isothermal solution would be desirable. My Ph.D. project focused on the study and on the testing of four isothermal reactions which can be used to amplify the nucleic acid analyte before the binding event on the surface sensor or to amplify the signal after that the hybridization event with the probe. Recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) and ligation-mediated rolling circle amplification (L-RCA) were investigated as methods for DNA and RNA amplification. Hybridization chain reaction (HCR) and Terminal deoxynucleotidil transferase-mediated amplification were investigated as strategies to achieve the enhancement of the signal after the surface hybridization event between target and probe. In conclusion, it can be said that only a small subset of the biochemical strategies that are proved to work in solution towards the amplification of nucleic acids does truly work in the context of amplifying the signal of a detection system for pathogens. Amongst those tested during my Ph.D. activity, recombinase polymerase amplification seems the best candidate for a useful implementation in diagnostic or environmental applications.

Nanotoxicology: a perspective and discussion of whether or not in vitro testing is a valid alternative

Despite the many proposed advantages related to nanotechnology, there are increasing concerns as to the potential adverse human health and environmental effects that the production of, and subsequent exposure to nanoparticles (NPs) might pose. In regard to human health, these concerns are founded upon the plethora of knowledge gained from research relating to the effects observed following exposure to environmental air pollution. It is known that increased exposure to environmental air pollution can cause reduced respiratory health, as well as exacerbate pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Such disease states have also been associated with exposure to the NP component contained within environmental air pollution, raising concerns as to the effects of NP exposure. It is not only exposure to accidentally produced NPs however, which should be approached with caution. Over the past decades, NPs have been specifically engineered for a wide range of consumer, industrial and technological applications. Due to the inevitable exposure of NPs to humans, owing to their use in such applications, it is therefore imperative that an understanding of how NPs interact with the human body is gained. In vivo research poses a beneficial model for gaining immediate and direct knowledge of human exposure to such xenobiotics. This research outlook however, has numerous limitations. Increased research using in vitro models has therefore been performed, as these models provide an inexpensive and high-throughput alternative to in vivo research strategies. Despite such advantages, there are also various restrictions in regard to in vitro research. Therefore, the aim of this review, in addition to providing a short perspective upon the field of nanotoxicology, is to discuss (1) the advantages and disadvantages of in vitro research and (2) how in vitro research may provide essential information pertaining to the human health risks posed by NP exposure.

Prioritising prevention strategies for patients in antiretroviral treatment programmes in resource-limited settings

Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) offers opportunities to strengthen HIV prevention in resource-limited settings. We invited 27 ART programmes from urban settings in Africa, Asia and South America to participate in a survey, with the aim to examine what preventive services had been integrated in ART programmes. Twenty-two programmes participated; eight (36%) from South Africa, two from Brazil, two from Zambia and one each from Argentina, India, Thailand, Botswana, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Morocco, Uganda and Zimbabwe and one occupational programme of a brewery company included five countries (Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Burundi). Twenty-one sites (96%) provided health education and social support, and 18 (82%) provided HIV testing and counselling. All sites encouraged disclosure of HIV infection to spouses and partners, but only 11 (50%) had a protocol for partner notification. Twenty-one sites (96%) supplied male condoms, seven (32%) female condoms and 20 (91%) provided prophylactic ART for the prevention of mother-to child transmission. Seven sites (33%) regularly screened for sexually transmitted infections (STI). Twelve sites (55%) were involved in activities aimed at women or adolescents, and 10 sites (46%) in activities aimed at serodiscordant couples. Stigma and discrimination, gender roles and funding constraints were perceived as the main obstacles to effective prevention in ART programmes. We conclude that preventive services in ART programmes in lower income countries focus on health education and the provision of social support and male condoms. Strategies that might be equally or more important in this setting, including partner notification, prompt diagnosis and treatment of STI and reduction of stigma in the community, have not been implemented widely.

Feature Versus Spatial Strategies by Orangutans (Pongo abelii) and Human Children (Homo sapiens) in a Cross-Dimensional Task

Despite the fact that photographic stimuli are used across experimental contexts with both human and nonhuman subjects, the nature of individuals' perceptions of these stimuli is still not well understood. In the present experiments, we tested whether three orangutans and 36 human children could use photographic information presented on a computer screen to solve a perceptually corresponding problem in the physical domain. Furthermore, we tested the cues that aided in this process by pitting featural information against spatial position in a series of probe trials. We found that many of the children and one orangutan were successfully able to use the information cross-dimensionally; however, the other two orangutans and almost a quarter of the children failed to acquire the task. Species differences emerged with respect to ease of task acquisition. More striking, however, were the differences in cues that participants used to solve the task: Whereas the orangutan used a spatial strategy, the majority of children used a feature one. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed from both evolutionary and developmental perspectives. The novel results found here underscore the need for further testing in this area to design appropriate experimental paradigms in future comparative research settings.

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

ATP modeling of internal transformer faults for relay performance testing

Transformers are very important elements of any power system. Unfortunately, they are subjected to through-faults and abnormal operating conditions which can affect not only the transformer itself but also other equipment connected to the transformer. Thus, it is essential to provide sufficient protection for transformers as well as the best possible selectivity and sensitivity of the protection. Nowadays microprocessor-based relays are widely used to protect power equipment. Current differential and voltage protection strategies are used in transformer protection applications and provide fast and sensitive multi-level protection and monitoring. The elements responsible for detecting turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground faults are the negative-sequence percentage differential element and restricted earth-fault (REF) element, respectively. During severe internal faults current transformers can saturate and slow down the speed of relay operation which affects the degree of equipment damage. The scope of this work is to develop a modeling methodology to perform simulations and laboratory tests for internal faults such as turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground for two step-down power transformers with capacity ratings of 11.2 MVA and 290 MVA. The simulated current waveforms are injected to a microprocessor relay to check its sensitivity for these internal faults. Saturation of current transformers is also studied in this work. All simulations are performed with the Alternative Transients Program (ATP) utilizing the internal fault model for three-phase two-winding transformers. The tested microprocessor relay is the SEL-487E current differential and voltage protection relay. The results showed that the ATP internal fault model can be used for testing microprocessor relays for any percentage of turns involved in an internal fault. An interesting observation from the experiments was that the SEL-487E relay is more sensitive to turn-to-turn faults than advertized for the transformers studied. The sensitivity of the restricted earth-fault element was confirmed. CT saturation cases showed that low accuracy CTs can be saturated with a high percentage of turn-to-turn faults, where the CT burden will affect the extent of saturation. Recommendations for future work include more accurate simulation of internal faults, transformer energization inrush, and other scenarios involving core saturation, using the newest version of the internal fault model. The SEL-487E relay or other microprocessor relays should again be tested for performance. Also, application of a grounding bank to the delta-connected side of a transformer will increase the zone of protection and relay performance can be tested for internal ground faults on both sides of a transformer.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

INVESTIGATION OF STRATEGIES TO PROMOTE EFFECTIVE TEACHER PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCES IN EARTH SCIENCE

This dissertation serves as a call to geoscientists to share responsibility with K-12 educators for increasing Earth science literacy. When partnerships are created among K-12 educators and geoscientists, the synergy created can promote Earth science literacy in students, teachers, and the broader community. The research described here resulted in development of tools that can support effective professional development for teachers. One tool is used during the planning stages to structure a professional development program, another set of tools supports measurement of the effectiveness of a development program, and the third tool supports sustainability of professional development programs. The Michigan Teacher Excellence Program (MiTEP), a Math/Science Partnership project funded by the National Science Foundation, served as the test bed for developing and testing these tools. The first tool, the planning tool, is the Earth Science Literacy Principles (ESLP). The ESLP served as a planning tool for the two-week summer field courses as part of the MiTEP program. The ESLP, published in 2009, clearly describe what an Earth science literate person should know. The ESLP consists of nine big ideas and their supporting fundamental concepts. Using the ESLP for planning a professional development program assisted both instructors and teacher-participants focus on important concepts throughout the professional development activity. The measurement tools were developed to measure change in teachers’ Earth science content-area knowledge and perceptions related to teaching and learning that result from participating in a professional development program. The first measurement tool, the Earth System Concept Inventory (ESCI), directly measures content-area knowledge through a succession of multiple-choice questions that are aligned with the content of the professional development experience. The second measurement, an exit survey, collects qualitative data from teachers regarding their impression of the professional development. Both the ESCI and the exit survey were tested for validity and reliability. Lesson study is discussed here as a strategy for sustaining professional development in a school or a district after the end of a professional development activity. Lesson study, as described here, was offered as a formal course. Teachers engaged in lesson study worked collaboratively to design and test lessons that improve the teachers’ classroom practices. Data regarding the impact of the lesson study activity were acquired through surveys, written documents, and group interviews. The data are interpreted to indicate that the lesson study process improved teacher quality and classroom practices. In the case described here, the lesson study process was adopted by the teachers’ district and currently serves as part of the district’s work in Professional Learning Communities, resulting in ongoing professional development throughout the district.

Changing epidemiology of HIV anonymous testing in Switzerland for 1996-2006

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To assess whether the prevalence of HIV positive tests in clients at five anonymous testing sites in Switzerland had increased since the end of the 1990s, and ascertain whether there had been any concurrent change in the proportions of associated risk factors. METHODS: Baseline characteristics were analysed, by groups of years, over the eleven consecutive years of data collected from the testing sites. Numbers of HIV positive tests were presented as prevalence/1000 tests performed within each category. Multivariable analyses, stratified by African nationality and risk group of heterosexuals or men who have sex with men (MSM), were done controlling simultaneously for a series of variables. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). P values were calculated from likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of positive tests in African heterosexuals between 1996-1999 and 2004-2006, rising from 54.2 to 86.4/1000 and from 5.6 to 25.2/1000 in females and males respectively. The proportion of MSM who knew that one or more of their sexual partners was infected with HIV increased from 2% to 17% and the proportion who reported having more than five sexual partners in the preceding two years increased from 44% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data from anonymous testing sites continue to provide useful information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and thus inform public health strategies against HIV.

Equine parasite control under prescription-only conditions in Denmark - Awareness, knowledge, perception, and strategies applied.

Due to widespread development of anthelmintic resistance in equine parasites, recommendations for their control are currently undergoing marked changes with a shift of emphasis toward more coprological surveillance and reduced treatment intensity. Denmark was the first nation to introduce prescription-only restrictions of anthelmintic drugs in 1999, but other European countries have implemented similar legislations over recent years. A questionnaire survey was performed in 2008 among Danish horse owners to provide a current status of practices and perceptions with relation to parasite control. Questions aimed at describing the current use of coprological surveillance and resulting anthelmintic treatment intensities, evaluating knowledge and perceptions about the importance of various attributes of parasite control, and assessing respondents' willingness to pay for advice and parasite surveillance services from their veterinarians. A total of 1060 respondents completed the questionnaire. A large majority of respondents (71.9%) were familiar with the concept of selective therapy. Results illustrated that the respondents' self-evaluation of their knowledge about parasites and their control associated significantly with their level of interest in the topic and their type of education (P<0.0001). The large majority of respondents either dewormed their horses twice a year and/or performed two fecal egg counts per horse per year. This approach was almost equally pronounced in foals, horses aged 1-3 years old, and adult horses. The respondents rated prevention of parasitic disease and prevention of drug resistance as the most important attributes, while cost and frequent fecal testing were rated least important. Respondents' actual spending on parasite control per horse in the previous year correlated significantly with the amount they declared themselves willing to spend (P<0.0001). However, 44.4% declared themselves willing to pay more than what they were spending. Altogether, results indicate that respondents were generally familiar with equine parasites and the concept of selective therapy, although there was some confusion over the terms small and large strongyles. They used a large degree of fecal surveillance in all age groups, with a majority of respondents sampling and/or treating around twice a year. Finally, respondents appeared willing to spend money on parasite control for their horses. It is of concern that the survey suggested that foals and young horses are treated in a manner very similar to adult horses, which is against current recommendations. Thus, the survey illustrates the importance of clear communication of guidelines for equine parasite control.

The performance of human papillomavirus high-risk DNA testing in the screening and diagnostic settings.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the performance of the human papillomavirus high-risk DNA test in patients 30 years and older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Screening (n=835) and diagnosis (n=518) groups were defined based on prior Papanicolaou smear results as part of a clinical trial for cervical cancer detection. We compared the Hybrid Capture II (HCII) test result with the worst histologic report. We used cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 or worse as the reference of disease. We calculated sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under the ROC curves for the HCII test. We also considered alternative strategies, including Papanicolaou smear, a combination of Papanicolaou smear and the HCII test, a sequence of Papanicolaou smear followed by the HCII test, and a sequence of the HCII test followed by Papanicolaou smear. RESULTS: For the screening group, the sensitivity was 0.69 and the specificity was 0.93; the area under the ROC curve was 0.81. The LR+ and LR- were 10.24 and 0.34, respectively. For the diagnosis group, the sensitivity was 0.88 and the specificity was 0.78; the area under the ROC curve was 0.83. The LR+ and LR- were 4.06 and 0.14, respectively. Sequential testing showed little or no improvement over the combination testing. CONCLUSIONS: The HCII test in the screening group had a greater LR+ for the detection of CIN 2/3 or worse. HCII testing may be an additional screening tool for cervical cancer in women 30 years and older.