Influence of climate on environmental factors associated with long-term changes in chlorophyll production for the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and Suisun Bay, California

Long-term changes in chlorophyll production were predicted from environmental variables for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay using Box-Jenkins transfer function models. Data used for the analyses were collected semimonthly or monthly between 1971 and 1987. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll production over time as a function of environmental variables were characterized by lagged responses and described between 39 and 51 percent of the data variation. Significant correlations between environmental variables and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production.

Modelling of long-term ground response to tunnelling under St James's Park, London

Following a tunnel excavation in low-permeability soil, it is commonly observed that the ground surface continues to settle and ground loading on the tunnel lining changes, as the pore pressures in the ground approach a new equilibrium condition. The monitored ground response following the tunnelling under St James's Park, London, shows that the mechanism of subsurface deformation is composed of three different zones: swelling, consolidation and rigid body movement. The swelling took place in a confined zone above the tunnel crown, extending vertically to approximately 5 m above it. On the sides of the tunnel, the consolidation of the soil occurred in the zone primarily within the tunnel horizon, from the shoulder to just beneath the invert, and extending laterally to a large offset from the tunnel centreline. Above these swelling and consolidation zones the soil moved downward as a rigid body. In this study, soil-fluid coupled three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed to simulate the mechanism of long-term ground response monitored at St James's Park. An advanced critical state soil model, which can simulate the behaviour of London Clay in both drained and undrained conditions, was adopted for the analyses. The analysis results are discussed and compared with the field monitoring data. It is found that the observed mechanism of long-term subsurface ground and tunnel lining response at St James's Park can be simulated accurately only when stiffness anisotropy, the variation of permeability between different units within the London Clay and non-uniform drainage conditions for the tunnel lining are considered. This has important implications for future prediction of the long-term behaviour of tunnels in clays.

Evolution and variation of the Tsushima warm current during the late Quaternary: Evidence from planktonic foraminifera, oxygen and carbon isotopes

The evolution and variation history of the Tsushima warm current during the late Quaternary was reconstructed based on the quantitative census data of planktonic foraminiferal fauna, together with oxygen and carbon isotope records of mixed layer dweller a ruber and thermocline dweller N. dutertrei in piston core CSH1 and core DGKS9603 collected separately from the Tsushima warm current and the Kuroshio dominated area. The result showed that the Tsushima warm current vanished in the lowstand period during 40-24 cal ka BP, while the Kuroshio still flowed across the Okinawa Trough, arousing strong upwelling in the northern Trough. Meanwhile, the influence of freshwater greatly increased in the northern Okinawa Trough, as the broad East China Sea continental shelf emerged. The freshwater reached its maximum during the last glacial maximum (LGM), when the upwelling obviously weakened for the lowest sea-level and the depression of the Kuroshio. The modern Tsushima warm current began its development since 16 cal ka BP, and the impact of the Kuroshio increased in the middle and northern Okinawa Trough synchronously during the deglaciation and gradually evolved as the main water source of the Tsushima current. The modern Tsushima current finally formed at about 8.5 cal ka BP, since then the circulation structure has been relatively stable. The water of the modern Tsushima current primarily came from the Kuroshio axis. A short-term wiggle of the current occurred at about 3 cal ka BP, probably for the influences from the enhancement of the winter monsoon and the depression of the Kuroshio. The cold water masses greatly strengthened during the wiggle.

Seasonal and interannual variation in water vapor and energy exchange over a typical steppe in Inner Mongolia, China

In this study, we conducted eddy covariance (EC) measurements of water vapor exchange over a typical steppe in a semi-arid area of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, China. Measurement sites were located within a 25-year-old enclosure with a relatively low leaf area index (similar to 1. 5 m(2) m(-2)) and dominated by Leymus chinensis. Energy balance closure was (H + LE) = 17.09 + 0.69 x (Rn - G) (W/m(2); r(2) = 0.95, n = 6596). Precipitation during the two growing seasons of the study period was similar to the long-term average. The peak evapotranspiration in 2004 was 4 mm d(-1), and 3.5 mm d(-1) in 2003. The maximum latent heat flux was higher than the sensible heat flux, and the sensible heat flux dominated the energy budget at midday during the entire growing season in 2003; latent heat flux was the main consumption component for net radiation during the 2004 growing season. During periods of frozen soil in 2003 and 2004, the sensible heat flux was the primary consumption component for net radiation. The soil heat flux component was similar in 2003 and 2004. The decoupling coefficient (between 0.5 and 0.1) indicates that evapotranspiration was strongly controlled by saturation water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in this grassland. The results of this research suggest that energy exchange and evapotranspiration were controlled by the phenology of the vegetation and soil water content. In addition, the amount and frequency of rainfall significantly affect energy exchange and evapotranspiration upon the Inner Mongolia plateau. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Individual variation in the milk yield response to bovine somatotropin in dairy cows

M. T. Rose, T. E. C. Weekes and P. Rowlinson (2004). Individual variation in the milk yield response to bovine somatotropin in dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science, 87(7), 2024-2031. Sponsorship: industry RAE2008

The study of molecular variation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and brown trout (Salmo trutta L.)

Polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci were used here in three studies, one on Salmo salar and two on S. trutta. In the case of S. salar, the survival of native fish and non-natives from a nearby catchment, and their hybrids, were compared in a freshwater common garden experiment and subsequently in ocean ranching, with parental assignment utilising microsatellites. Overall survival of non-natives was 35% of natives. This differential survival was mainly in the oceanic phase. These results imply a genetic basis and suggest local adaptation can occur in salmonids across relatively small geographic distances which may have important implications for the management of salmon populations. In the first case study with S trutta, the species was investigated throughout its spread as an invasive in Newfoundland, eastern Canada. Genetic investigation confirmed historical records that the majority of introductions were from a Scottish hatchery and provided a clear example of the structure of two expanding waves of spread along coasts, probably by natural straying of anadromous individuals, to the north and south of the point of human introduction. This study showed a clearer example of the genetic anatomy of an invasion than in previous studies with brown trout, and may have implications for the management of invasive species in general. Finally, the genetics of anadromous S. trutta from the Waterville catchment in south western Ireland were studied. Two significantly different population groupings, from tributaries in geographically distinct locations entering the largest lake in the catchment, were identified. These results were then used to assign very large rod caught sea trout individuals (so called “specimen” sea trout) back to region of origin, in a Genetic Stock Identification exercise. This suggested that the majority of these large sea trout originated from one of the two tributary groups. These results are relevant for the understanding of sea trout population dynamics and for the future management of this and other sea trout producing catchments. This thesis has demonstrated new insights into the population structuring of salmonids both between and within catchments. While these chapters look at the existence and scale of genetic variation from different angles, it might be concluded that the overarching message from this thesis should be to highlight the importance of maintaining genetic diversity in salmonid populations as vital for their long-term productivity and resilience.

Low demographic variability in wild primate populations: fitness impacts of variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates.

In a stochastic environment, long-term fitness can be influenced by variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates (survival and fertility). Yet no study of an animal population has parsed the contributions of these three aspects of variability to long-term fitness. We do so using a unique database that includes complete life-history information for wild-living individuals of seven primate species that have been the subjects of long-term (22-45 years) behavioral studies. Overall, the estimated levels of vital rate variation had only minor effects on long-term fitness, and the effects of vital rate covariation and serial correlation were even weaker. To explore why, we compared estimated variances of adult survival in primates with values for other vertebrates in the literature and found that adult survival is significantly less variable in primates than it is in the other vertebrates. Finally, we tested the prediction that adult survival, because it more strongly influences fitness in a constant environment, will be less variable than newborn survival, and we found only mixed support for the prediction. Our results suggest that wild primates may be buffered against detrimental fitness effects of environmental stochasticity by their highly developed cognitive abilities, social networks, and broad, flexible diets.

Victims of infanticide and conspecific bite wounding in a female-dominant primate: a long-term study.

The aggression animals receive from conspecifics varies between individuals across their lifetime. As poignantly evidenced by infanticide, for example, aggression can have dramatic fitness consequences. Nevertheless, we understand little about the sources of variation in received aggression, particularly in females. Using a female-dominant species renowned for aggressivity in both sexes, we tested for potential social, demographic, and genetic patterns in the frequency with which animals were wounded by conspecifics. Our study included 243 captive, ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta), followed from infancy to adulthood over a 35-year time span. We extracted injury, social, and life-history information from colony records and calculated neutral heterozygosity for a subset of animals, as an estimate of genetic diversity. Focusing on victims rather than aggressors, we used General Linear Models to explain bite-wound patterns at different life stages. In infancy, maternal age best predicted wounds received, as infants born to young mothers were the most frequent infanticide victims. In adulthood, sex best predicted wounds received, as males were three times more likely than females to be seriously injured. No relation emerged between wounds received and the other variables studied. Beyond the generally expected costs of adult male intrasexual aggression, we suggest possible additive costs associated with female-dominant societies - those suffered by young mothers engaged in aggressive disputes and those suffered by adult males aggressively targeted by both sexes. We propose that infanticide in lemurs may be a costly by-product of aggressively mediated, female social dominance. Accordingly, the benefits of female behavioral 'masculinization' accrued to females through priority of access to resources, may be partially offset by early costs in reproductive success. Understanding the factors that influence lifetime patterns of conspecific wounding is critical to evaluating the fitness costs associated with social living; however, these costs may vary substantially between societies.

Phaeocystis colony distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean since 1948, and interpretation of long-term changes in the Phaeocystis hotspot in the North Sea

Monitoring of Phaeocystis since 1948 during the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey indicates that over the last 5.5 decades the distribution of its colonies in the North Atlantic Ocean was not restricted to neritic waters: occurrence was also recorded in the open Atlantic regions sampled, most frequently in the spring. Apparently, environmental conditions in open ocean waters, also those far oVshore, are suitable for complete lifecycle development of colonies (the only stage recorded in the survey). In the North Sea the frequency of occurrence was also highest in spring. Its southeastern part was the Phaeocystis abundance hotspot of the whole area covered by the survey. Frequency was especially high before the 1960s and after the 1980s, i.e., in the periods when anthropogenic nutrient enrichment was relatively low. Changes in eutrophication have obviously not been a major cause of long-term Phaeocystis variation in the southeastern North Sea, where total phytoplankton biomass was related signiWcantly to river discharge. Evidence is presented for the suggestion that Phaeocystis abundance in the southern North Sea is to a large extent determined by the amount of Atlantic Ocean water Xushed in through the Dover Strait. Since Phaeocystis plays a key role in element Xuxes relevant to climate the results presented here have implications for biogeochemical models of cycling of carbon and sulphur. Sea-to-air exchange of CO2 and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) has been calculated on the basis of measurements during single-year cruises. The considerable annual variation in phytoplankton and in its Phaeocystis component reported here does not warrant extrapolation of such figures.

Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Long-term changes in the meroplankton of the North Sea

Data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey collected in the late-1940s to early-1960s indicated that the abundance of decapod larvae was low and the seasonal peak of abundance was late following cold winters. The phenological effect of temperature was shown to be consistent with relationships between both geographical and interannual patterns of variation. Analyses of CPR data collected from the 1940s to the present day reveal large-scale long-term changes in the abundance and phenology of the North Sea meroplankton. Echinoderm larvae, whose peak abundance has advanced by 47 days, show the greatest shift in timing. Echinoderm larvae have also increased in abundance to become the most abundant taxon in North Sea CPR samples. Genetic and morphological analyses of CPR samples show that the variations in echinoderm larvae are mainly attributable to an increasing abundance and earlier occurrence of the larvae of a resident species, Echinocardium cordatum, rather than a change in species composition. The remarkable scale of the changes in abundance and phenology of the meroplankton, which are greater than those seen in the holoplankton, has stimulated the development of further research into the causes and effects of these changes.

Variation among northeast Atlantic regions in the responses of zooplankton to climate change: Not all areas follow the same path

Broad scale climate forcing can interact with local environmental processes to affect the observed ecological phenomena. This causes potential problems of over-extrapolation for results from a limited number of sites or the averaging out of region-specific responses if data from too wide an area are combined. In this study, an area similar in extent to the Celtic Biscay Large Marine Ecosystem, but including off-shelf areas, was partitioned using clustering of satellite chlorophyll (chl-a) measurements. The resulting clusters were used to define areas over which to combine copepod data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Following filtering due to data limitations, nine regions were defined with sufficient records for analysis. These regions were consistent with known oceanographic structure in the study area. Off-shelf regions showed a progressively later timing in the seasonal peak of chl-a measurements moving northwards. Generalised additive models were used to estimate seasonal and multiannual signals in the adult and juvenile stages of Calanus finmarchicus, C. helgolandicus and the Paracalanus–Pseudocalanus group. Associations between variables (sea surface temperature (SST), phenology and annual abundance) differed among taxonomic groups, but even within taxonomic groups, relationships were not consistent across regions. For example, in the deep waters off Spain and Portugal the annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus has a weak positive association with SST, in contrast to the pattern in most other regions. The regions defined in this study provide an objective basis for investigations into the long term dynamics of plankton populations and suggest suitable sub regions for deriving pelagic system indicators.

Assessing marine plankton community structure from long-term monitoring data with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models: a comparison of fixed station versus spatially distributed sampling data

We examined how marine plankton interaction networks, as inferred by multivariate autoregressive (MAR) analysis of time-series, differ based on data collected at a fixed sampling location (L4 station in the Western English Channel) and four similar time-series prepared by averaging Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) datapoints in the region surrounding the fixed station. None of the plankton community structures suggested by the MAR models generated from the CPR datasets were well correlated with the MAR model for L4, but of the four CPR models, the one most closely resembling the L4 model was that for the CPR region nearest to L4. We infer that observation error and spatial variation in plankton community dynamics influenced the model performance for the CPR datasets. A modified MAR framework in which observation error and spatial variation are explicitly incorporated could allow the analysis to better handle the diverse time-series data collected in marine environments.

Wide Variation in Adenoma Detection Rates at Screening Flexible Sigmoidoscopy

Background & Aims: Wide between-center variation in adenoma detection rates (ADRs) was observed in the U.K. Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial (overall, 12.1%; range, 8.6%-15.9%; P <0.0001). The aim of this study was to determine whether the observed differences could be attributed to varying performance by endoscopists, to examine the effect of experience on performance, and to identify an attainable, standard ADR to which endoscopists could aspire. 

Methods: Thirteen medical endoscopists, one per trial center, each performed about 3000 examinations (200 per month) using the same equipment and protocol. Overall and monthly ADRs were compared using multivariable logistic regression. 

Results: Differences in ADRs were not explained by patient characteristics, incidence of colorectal cancer in the local population, or the endoscopists' medical specialty or previous experience. Average ADRs increased significantly with screening experience (up to 400 examinations). Endoscopists were classified as higher, intermediate, or lower adenoma detectors, and performance levels were maintained over time. Higher detectors had ADRs of 15% overall (men, 20%; women, 10%) and also detected more adenomas per case (higher/lower detectors, 21.7/10.4 adenomas per :100 examinations). 

Conclusions: The differences in ADRs were due to variation in performance of the endoscopists. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this variation is clinically important. We suggest that the standards in higher detecting centers should be achievable by all endoscopists screening unscreened populations aged older than 55 years. Endoscopists should aim to stay above the lower 95% confidence interval band for 200 examinations (10% overall; 5% in women, 15% in men).

Simultaneous, long-term monitoring of valve and cardiac activity in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis exposed to copper

Valve and cardiac activity were simultaneously measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in response to 10 d copper exposure. Valve movements, heart rates and heart-rate variability were obtained non-invasively using a Musselmonitor(R) (valve activity) and a modified version of the Computer-Aided Physiological Monitoring system (CAPMON; cardiac activity). After 2 d exposure of mussels (4 individuals per treatment group) to a range of dissolved copper concentrations (0 to 12.5 mu M as CuCl2) median valve positions (% open) and median heart rates (beats per minute) declined as a function of copper concentration. Heart-rate variability (coefficient of variation for interpulse durations) rose in a concentration-dependent manner. The 48 h EC50 values (concentrations of copper causing 50% change) for valve positions, heart rates and heart-rate variability were 2.1, 0.8, and 0.06 mu M, respectively. Valve activity was weakly correlated with both heart rate (r = 0.48 +/- 0.02) and heart-rate variability (r = 0.32 +/- 0.06) for control individuals (0 mu M Cu2+). This resulted from a number of short enclosure events that did not coincide with a change in cardiac activity. Exposure of mussels to increasing copper concentrations (greater than or equal to 0.8 mu M) progressively reduced the correlation between valve activity and heart rates (r = 0 for individuals dosed with greater than or equal to 6.3 mu M Cu2+), while correlations between valve activity and heart-rate variability were unaffected. The poor correlations resulted from periods of valve flapping that were not mimicked by similar fluctuations in heart rate or heart-rate variability. The data suggest that the copper-induced bradycardia observed in mussels is not a consequence of prolonged valve closure.