Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Dinâmica populacional de Halodule wrightii Ascherson e sua fauna e flora associada em Cabo Frio RJ

Fanerógamas marinhas (gramas marinhas) são plantas com flores adaptadas ao ambiente marinho costeiro da maioria dos continentes do mundo. As gramas marinhas formam extensos bancos e proveem valiosos recursos em águas costeiras rasas em todo o mundo, servindo de alimento e berçário para espécies importantes de pescados comerciais e recreacionais. Nesse estudo foi realizada uma revisão sobre o estado de conhecimento das fanerógamas marinhas no Brasil até o presente momento; avaliou-se a importância do monitoramento em longo prazo e a influência de fatores ambientais, como o número de manchas solares; pesquisou-se também a distribuição espacial da grama marinha, bem como a fauna e flora associada; e o crescimento de Halodule wrightii em duas condições ambientais extremas (exposta no ciclo de maré baixa e permanentemente submersa). A revisão bibliográfica sobre as gramas marinhas foi abrangente e verificou a existência de algumas lacunas no conhecimento. Através do monitoramento a longo prazo pôde ser observado que o número de manchas solares tem forte relação negativa sobre a altura do dossel das gramas marinhas de região entre marés. A variação de marés na região de mediolitoral está relacionada diretamente com a distribuição espacial de Halodule wrightii e, consequentemente na distribuição da fauna e flora associada. A diferença de crescimento nos eixos de Halodule wrightii em condições ambientais diferentes é compensada pelas variações nas características de distribuição da planta no ambiente, tais como a altura do dossel, a densidade e biomassa de eixos. O monitoramento a longo prazo pode permitir a tomada de ações que auxiliem no manejo e na recuperação desses importantes habitats costeiros.

Temperature, organic matter and the sustainability of aquatic systems

Changes in sustainability of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be brought about by the global warming that has been widely predicted. In this article, the effects of water temperature on water-bodies (lakes, oceans and rivers) are reviewed followed by the effects of temperature on aquatic organisms. Almost all aquatic organisms require exogenous heat before they can metabolise efficiently. An organism that is adapted to warm temperatures will have a higher rate of metabolism of food organisms and this increases feeding rate. In addition, an increase in temperature raises the metabolism of food organisms, so food quality can be altered. Where populations have a different tolerance to temperature the result is habitat partitioning. One effect of prolonged high temperature is that it causes water to evaporate readily. In the marine littoral this is not an important problem as tides will replenish water in pools. Small rain pools are found in many tropical countries during the rainy season and these become incompletely dried at intervals. The biota of such pools must have resistant stages within the life cycle that enable them to cope with periods of drying. The most important potential effects of global warming include (i) the alteration of existing coastlines, (ii) the development of more deserts on some land masses, (iii) higher productivity producing higher crop production but a greater threat of algal blooms and (iv) the processing of organic matter at surface microlayers.

Investigations of the sand movements in the district of the Elbe estuary [Translation from: Hamburger Kuestenforschung 19, [pages 61-63 only], 1975]

The present work is concerned with the processes of sand movement in the region of the Elbe estuary. In the first part the results of various investigations which have given indications of the regional transport directions are collected together. The interpretation of the results of a large number of continuous current recordings gives a picture of the resulting transport to be expected under the influence of the tides with those current conditions. This partial translation of the original paper provides the summary of this paper the regional distribution of the flood and ebb flow zones.

Concerning the current conditions and transport of sand in the shallow water areas off the coast of the south-eastern North Sea [Translation from: Hamburger Kustenforschung 29 [pages 41-43 only], 1974]

With the aid of the German Research Association in the central programme 'Sand movements in the German coastal region', an investigation into the current conditions in the shallow water areas of the coasts of the south-eastern North Sea between Sylt and the Weser estuary was carried out by the author. Foundations of the work are 19 continuous current recordings in five profiles normal to the coast from years 1971 to 1973. Off the coasts of the south-eastern North Sea varying tidal currents impinge; they are currents whose directions may vary periodically through all points of the compass. They are caused by the circulating tides in the North Sea (Amphidromien). The turning flow movement experiences a deformation in the very shallow coastal waters, and as it happens the flow turning movement in the case of high tide continues right up onto the outer flats, while here and in the fore-lying shallow water areas around the time of low water (on account of the small depths of waters), there prevails a more variable current. A result of this hydrodynamical procedure is the development of counter currents. This partial translation of the original paper provides the summary of this study of of the mudflat areas between the Elbe and Weser.

Observação do transporte de sedimentos em suspensão ao longo do Canal Norte do rio Amazonas durante condições de baixa descarga (outubro 2008)

The Amazon river, located in northernBrazil, discharges between 80,000 and 250,000 m3s-1 of water onto the adjacent shelf, creating a plume of brackish water that extends hundreds of kilometers away from the river mouth. This river also carries a large amount of fine sediments to the ocean where fluid mud has been found in the topset and upper foreset layers of the subaqueous delta formed on the mid-shelf. One of the main goals of this dissertation is to describe how turbulence and suspended sediment concentration vary along the Northern Channel of the Amazon river. Water column measurements were carried out in October 2008 at six anchor stations (P1, P3, P5, P6, P8 e P9) located seaward of the river mouth; P1 and P9 were 125 km apart. Each station was occupied during 13 hours during which current speed and direction were continuously sampled with a 600 kHz Teledyne-RDI ADCP; hourly profiles of temperature, salinity, turbidity and depth were also obtained. Water samples were collected for determination of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) concentration and calibration of the turbidity sensor. Current speed reached values above 1.5 m s1 in the along-channel direction (NE-SW); a remarkable ebb-flood asymmetry was observed and flows were strongly ebb-dominated. Throughout the water column, SPM concentration at stations P1 and P3 varied between 100 and 300 mg L1 in association with the presence of freshwater. In contrast, a strong salinity gradient was observed between stations P6 and P9, coinciding with the occurrence of concentrations of SPM above 10 g L-1 (fluid mud). At stations P3, P5 and P6, interface between freshwater from the Amazon river and salt water from the continental shelf, shear stresses wereestimated through four diferents methods: Reynolds, Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE), modified TKE and Quadratic Law; in the nearbed region (3 mab) the computed values varied between 0 and 3 Pa. At the three stations (P3, P5 and P6) the lowest and the highest shear stress values were obtained through, respectively, the Reynolds and the TKE methods. Over the whole water column turbulence intensity was estimated through the standard deviation of the turbulent component of the along-channel current velocity (root-mean square of u); from these values, it was estimated the turbulent dissipation of energy (G), whose values at 3 mab varied between zero and 20 s1.

Activity patterns of Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, in the coastal waters of the Cedar Keys, Florida

Radio and sonic telemetry were used to investigate the tidal orientation, rate of movement (ROM), and surfacing behavior of nine Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, tracked east of the Cedar Keys, Florida. The mean of mean turtle bearings on incoming (48 ± 49 0) and falling (232 ± 41 0) tides was significantly oriented to the mean directions of tidal flow (37±9°, P<0.0025, and 234±9 0, P<0.005, respectively). Turtles had a mean ROM of 0.44±0.33 km/h (range: 0.004-1.758 km/h), a mean surface duration of 18± 15 s (range: 1-88 s), and a mean submergence duration of 8.4± 6.4 min (range: 0.2-60.0 min). ROM was negatively correlated with surface and submergence durations and positively correlated with the number of surfacings. Furthermore, ROMs were higher and surface and submergence durations were shorter during the day. Daily activities of turtles were attributed to food acquisition and bioenergetics.

The fishery for California market squid (Loligo opalescens) (Cephalopoda: Myopsida), from 1981 through 2003

The California market squid (Loligo opalescens) has been harvested since the 1860s and it has become the largest fishery in California in terms of tonnage and dollars since 1993. The fishery began in Monterey Bay and then shifted to southern California, where effort has increased steadily since 1983. The California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) collects information on landings of squid, including tonnage, location, and date of capture. We compared landings data gathered by CDFG with sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), the southern oscillation index (SOI), and their respective anomalies. We found that the squid fishery in Monterey Bay expends twice the effort of that in southern California. Squid landings decreased substantially following large El Niño events in 1982−83 and 1997−98, but not following the smaller El Niño events of 1987 and 1992. Spectral analysis revealed autocorrelation at annual and 4.5-year intervals (similar to the time period between El Niño cycles). But this analysis did not reveal any fortnightly or monthly spawning peaks, thus squid spawning did not correlate with tides. A paralarvae density index (PDI) for February correlated well with catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the following November recruitment of adults to the spawning grounds. This stock– recruitment analysis was significant for 2000−03 (CPUE=8.42+0.41PDI, adjusted coefficient of determination, r2=0.978, P=0.0074). Surveys of squid paralarvae explained 97.8% of the variance for catches of adult squid nine months later. The regression of CPUE on PDI could be used to manage the fishery. Catch limits for the fishery could be set on the basis of paralarvae abundance surveyed nine months earlier.

Variability in supply and cross-shelf transport of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum) postlarvae into western Florida Bay

The variability in the supply of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum) postlarvae and the transport mechanisms of planktonic stages were investigated with field data and simulations of transport. Postlarvae entering the nursery grounds of Florida Bay were collected for three consecutive years at channels that connect the Bay with the Gulf of Mexico, and in channels of the Middle Florida Keys that connect the southeastern margin of the Bay with the Atlantic Ocean. The influx of postlarvae in the Middle Florida Keys was low in magnitude and varied seasonally and among years. In contrast, the greater postlarval influx occurred at the northwestern border of the Bay, where there was a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in influx from July through September each year. Planktonic stages need to travel up to 150 km eastward between spawning grounds (northeast of Dry Tortugas) and nursery grounds (western Florida Bay) in about 30 days, the estimated time of planktonic development for this species. A Lagrangian trajectory model was developed to estimate the drift of planktonic stages across the SW Florida shelf. The model simulated the maximal distance traveled by planktonic stages under various assumptions of behavior. Simulation results indicated that larvae traveling with the instantaneous current and exhibiting a diel behavior travel up to 65 km and 75% of the larvae travel only 30 km. However, the eastward distance traveled increased substantially when a larval response to tides was added to the behavioral variable (distance increased to 200 km and 85% of larvae traveled 150 km). The question is, when during larval development, and where on the shallow SW Florida shelf, does the tidal response become incorporated into the behavior of pink shrimp.

Collection of juvenile mullet species from a brackishwater tidal farm in Nigeria

The major constraint to the development of aquaculture in Nigeria has been the non-availability of fingerlings in required numbers of cultivable species. A specifically designed trap to collect mullet (Liza falcipinnis; Liza grandisquamis) juveniles during high tides was successful in collecting juveniles year-round. The collectors was more successful during night spring tides than during neap tides or daytime collections. Thus, the use of traps, especially in the tidal zones, could provide a cost-effective method of stocking fish farms by collecting juveniles and seed from the natural environment.

Circulação e fluxo de material particulado em suspensão no principal canal de acesso à baía de Sepetiba

Entre 06/08/11 e 25/02/12 foram obtidas séries temporais contínuas de intensidade e direção das correntes e intensidade do eco ao longo de toda a coluna dágua, e medições, de temperatura e pressão, próximas ao fundo, na região adjacente ao canal de acesso à baía de Sepetiba (230'16.5"S e 4359'29.4"W, profundidade local de aproximadamente 25 m) através da utilização de um perfilador acústico ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler), modelo WorkHorse BroadBand Sentinel (600 kHz, Teledyne-RDI). A partir dos dados adquiridos, observou-se a existência de correntes intensas próximo ao fundo (até 1,02 m/s), principalmente durante os períodos de enchente sob condições de sizígia, que são fortemente influenciadas pela orientação do canal de navegação. A análise das séries temporais das componentes da velocidade mostraram, em conformidade ao relatado por alguns autores, que esta é uma baía cuja circulação é fortemente influenciada pela dinâmica da maré sendo M2, M4, M6 e M8 as principais componentes harmônicas que atuam no sistema. Além disso, observou-se significativa assimetria da maré, sendo os períodos de enchente consideravelmente mais curtos e associados às correntes mais intensas, o que permite concluir que no setor investigado da baía de Sepetiba há dominância de enchente. Outra característica interessante da área de estudo relaciona-se à observação de que ventos intensos de S-SO são responsáveis pelo empilhamento de água no interior da baía, sendo que altura do nível da superfície da água apresenta relação direta com as variações da pressão atmosférica local. Em diversos períodos, quando há atuação de ventos de E-NE é possível encontrar Água Central do Atlântico Sul (ACAS) no interior da baía de Sepetiba, desde a sua entrada principal até as adjacências da ilha Guaíba. Além disso, foram identificadas diversas oscilações de baixa frequência que puderam ser associadas à variação da pressão atmosférica. Oscilações de alta frequência foram associadas à dinâmica da maré, a co-oscilações da maré e ao vento. Em relação à concentração de Material Particulado em Suspensão (MPS), durante os períodos de sizígia foram registradas as maiores concentrações material particulado na coluna dágua. Durante os períodos de sizígia, o fluxo de MPS é mais pronunciado do que durante as quadraturas, sendo que, independente do período da maré, o fluxo cumulativo de material particulado em suspensão é dirigido para o interior da baía de Sepetiba. Considerando o alinhamento dos vetores de velocidade em conformidade a direção preferencial do canal de navegação, tem-se que o fluxo cumulativo de MPS varia entre dirigido para SE na região próxima ao fundo, a dirigido para NE próximo ao topo da coluna dágua, o que sugere a deflexão do movimento das correntes em consequência do atrito. Ao longo de um dia, o fluxo do material particulado é mais pronunciado durante as enchentes, quando há aumento das tensões cisalhantes que atuam sobre o leito da baía redisponibilizando para a coluna dágua o material que estava depositado no fundo.

Larval development of estuary perch (Macquaria colonorum) and Australian bass (M. novemaculeata) (Perciformes: Percichthyidae), and comments on their life history

Morphological development of the larvae and small juveniles of estuary perch (Macquaria colonorum) (17 specimens, 4.8−13.5 mm body length) and Australian bass (M. novemaculeata) (38 specimens, 3.3−14.1 mm) (Family Percichthyidae) is described from channel-net and beach-seine collections of both species, and from reared larvae of M. novemaculeata. The larvae of both are characterized by having 24−25 myomeres, a large triangular gut (54−67% of BL) in postflexion larvae, small spines on the preopercle and interopercle, a smooth supraocular ridge, a small to moderate gap between the anus and the origin of the anal fin, and distinctive pigment patterns. The two species can be distinguished most easily by the different distribution of their melanophores. The adults spawn in estuaries and larvae are presumed to remain in estuaries before migrating to adult freshwater habitat. However, larvae of both species were collected as they entered a central New South Wales estuary from the ocean on flood tides; such transport may have consequences for the dispersal of larvae among estuaries. Larval morphology and published genetic evidence supports a reconsideration of the generic arrangement of the four species currently placed in the genus Macquaria.

Avaliação ambiental através da utilização do fitoplâncton. Estudo de caso: Ilha Guaíba Mangaratiba RJ.

A Baía da Ilha Guaíba é um sistema costeiro tropical com influência de águas oceânicas, principalmente da Corrente do Brasil e das Águas Costeiras que são predominantes em toda a costa da região sudeste. O objetivo geral foi identificar os indicadores biológicos das possíveis alterações ambientais e ou antrópicas e como objetivos específicos, apresentar a distribuição qualitativa e quantitativa do fitoplâncton em função da espacialidade e da sazonalidade em duas situações de maré bem como demonstrar a estrutura da comunidade fitoplanctônica dentro de um Programa de Monitoramento desenvolvido pela empresa Minerações Brasileiras Reunidas através do Centro de Tecnologia Ambiental da FIRJAN (CTA). Foram estabelecidos 9 pontos amostrais na área sob influência do Terminal Marítimo da Ilha levando em consideração as características de cada um. Para o estudo qualitativo e quantitativo do fitoplâncton, 200 ml de água foram coletados em dois pontos de amostragem 7 e 9 em baixa-mar e preamar, através de garrafa de Van Dorn e nos 9 pontos foi realizado arrasto com rede de 50μm, ambos em quatro épocas sazonais distintas. Ao todo foram encontradas 176 unidades taxonômicas demonstrando uma importante oferta de nichos. A espécie que mais se destacou foi Coscinodiscus cf. centralis em todas as amostras de rede. A sazonalidade foi vista através de uma análise de Cluster tanto para as amostras de rede quanto para as de garrafa. Não houve registro de espécies que indicassem alterações antrópicas não revelando condição de eutrofização. Foram encontradas espécies indicadoras de diferentes massas de água como também outras potencialmente nocivas. Os resultados bióticos e abióticos demonstraram que a área sob influência do empreendimento está dentro dos padrões estabelecidos pela legislação vigente e que para o estabelecimento de um desenvolvimento sustentável torna-se imprescindível a adoção de métodos padronizados e multiinterdisciplinares para que seja possível comparar e acompanhar os processos e seus efeitos viabilizando assim a manutenção da biodiversidade.

O Fitoplâncton e a dialética da balneabilidade de praias: um estudo de caso na Praia de Itacoatiara, Niterói, RJ.

A praia de Itacoatiara, área de proteção ambiental, localizada no município no Niterói- RJ, tem importante contribuição para o turismo ecológico da região. Busca a certificação ambiental do programa Bandeira Azul e este trabalho buscou cumprir determinação de monitoramento ambiental como um dos critérios do programa. O objetivo foi avaliar a proliferação de microalgas marinhas como sensor da qualidade da balneabilidade diagnosticada através de um bioindicador, o fitoplâncton. As coletas foram realizadas em dois pontos nos meses de novembro de 2008 e de janeiro a março de 2009. Foram encontradas 52 unidades taxonômicas, sendo que 33 pertencem às diatomáceas (Bacillariophyceae), 15 dinoflagelados (Dinophyceae), 1 às cianobactéria (Cyanophyceae), 1 euglenofícea (Euglenophyceae), 1 crisofícea (Chrysophyceae) e 1 prasinofícea (Prasinophyceae) e fitoflagelados. A metodologia seguida foi de sedimentação em cubetas e analisadas em microscópio invertido. A praia de Itacoatiara está caracterizada por sofrer influência de ambientes adjacentes com massas dágua comprometidas promovendo proliferações algais monoespecíficas com densidades consideradas de Bloom. As espécies dominantes foram Tetraselmis sp (Prasinophyceae) considerada potencialmente nociva por apresentar contaminação visual e as Cianobactérias que podem produzir toxinas. Os parâmetros vento, ondulação e maré foram apontadas como os principais carreadores das massas dágua comprometidas até a região estudada. Por cumprir o objetivo geral, conclui-se que o fitoplâncton marinho pode ser utilizado como parâmetro para a caracterização e qualidade da balneabilidade de praias.

Leven estuary project. Fisheries Department final report

This is the report on the Leven estuary project: Fisheries Department final report produced by the Environment Agency North West in 1997. This report contains information about Leven estuary, river Leven catchment, river Crake catchment and the Ulverston Discharges. The Leven estuary is characterised by being very shallow, and shares the extremely variable tides and currents that characterize the whole of Morecambe Bay. There was little detailed knowledge of the impact on the Leven estuary, and particularly its fisheries, of the discharges from Ulverston. There has been some concern expressed by the lave netsmen and the general public about the possible harmful effects of the effluents on the biology of the estuary. In the absence of a definite strategy for the protection and management of the estuary was born this project. The project involves water quality monitoring, effluent and estuary toxicity testing, tracking of effluent plumes, and salmonid tagging and tracking. The entire project commenced in June 1995 and was expected to reach a conclusion in March 1997. The information gained from the project was expected to contribute to the creation of a 'mixing zone' for the effluent, and to improve the environmental management of the estuary and protection of its fishery.