Multidecadal climate oscillations detected in a transparency record from a subtropical Florida lake

Synchronous interannual variability in water transparency observed in neighboring lakes has been linked to regional precipitation and resultant runoff of dissolved organic material, but many climate forcings oscillate over time scales longer than most limnological records can detect. A strong relationship (R2 5 0.86) between transparency and the previous two years’ rainfall and lake stage in a 25-yr record from a Florida lake enabled us to hindcast transparency from a longer 75-yr record of rainfall and lake stage. Predictions revealed a ,30-yr cycle in transparency linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Transparency was greatest (4–8 m) in the cool phase of the AMO (,1962–1993) associated with below-average rainfall in south Florida and lowest (0.1– 3.0 m) during two warm phases (,1932–1961, 1994–present) associated with above-average, but more variable, annual rainfall. Models that predict effects of large-scale hydrologic restoration projects on solute export from South Florida’s expansive wetlands need to account for recent entry into a warm AMO phase, where teleconnections between the AMO phases and runoff are opposite of those shown for the U.S. interior.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Water temperature reconstructions based on paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records, and paired surface and subsurface Mg/Ca records

This dataset contains the collection of available published paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records spanning multi-millennial to multi-million year time scales, as well as a collection of Mg/Ca-derived temperatures measured in parallel on surface and subsurface dwelling foraminifera, both used in the analyses of Ho and Laepple, Nature Geoscience 2016. As the signal-to-noise ratios of proxy-derived Holocene temperatures are relatively low, we selected records that contain at least the last deglaciation (oldest sample >18kyr BP).

Relative contents of foraminifera species in bottom sediments of northern and southern seas

Correlation of paleoceanographic events in several key regions of the World Ocean: North Atlantic, Antarctic, West Arctic Seas, North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific has been carried out for the last 135 ka based on micropaleontological, stable isotope, geochronological (AMS-14C) and other data. It has been shown that the global thermohaline circulation controls remote climatic teleconnections on millennial-scale and partly on centennial-scale, while short-term climate changes are mainly transferred by the atmosphere. The basic information is given about the recent thermohaline circulation and stages of its development during Neogene.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core AAS-62/2

Variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity during the last 16.7?ka have been studied using organic carbon (Corg), d15N of sedimentary organic matter, CaCO3, sediment texture, d18OC, and Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature, d18O of sea water and sea surface salinity, in a 14C-dated sediment core from the eastern Arabian Sea. The d18O in water and planktonic foraminifera shells off the central west coast of India may be controlled by the ISM intensity as this area receives high precipitation and land runoff. Also, the Corg and CaCO3 contents of sediments and d15N of sedimentary organic matter may be linked to ISM-induced productivity and denitrification. The results of the present study reveal that between 16 and 15.2 ka BP, the ISM was weak with minor fluctuations and started intensifying around 15.2 ka BP, at the onset of the Bølling-Ållerød (B-A) event. The B-A event is characterized by higher water column denitrification rates comparable to the present day. The ISM signatures observed in the d18OC record of B-A event compare well with those from Timta cave of the western Himalayas and also the Asian summer monsoon signatures from the Hulu caves in China and warming signatures in Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) suggesting atmospheric teleconnections through Intertropical Convergence Zone. The boundary between the Younger Dryas and the Holocene is discernible with small episodes of abrupt events of increased ISM intensity. This decrease in d18OC values at ~11.8 ka BP is contemporary with June solar insolation maximum at 30° north and the increase in methane in the GISP2 ice core supporting episodes of warmer climate and increase in ISM intensity. The ISM seems to have been most stable between 7 and 5.6 ka BP. The core exhibits periodicity of 500 years that is comparable to the Atlantic water formation and the Chinese monsoon.

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years) and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP) permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

Laminated sediment cores in the Bering Sea

During the last glacial termination, the upper North Pacific Ocean underwent dramatic and rapid changes in oxygenation that lead to the transient intensification of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), recorded by the widespread occurrence of laminated sediments on circum-Pacific continental margins. We present a new laminated sediment record from the mid-depth (1100 m) northern Bering Sea margin that provides insight into these deglacial OMZ maxima with exceptional, decadal-scale detail. Combined ultrahigh-resolution micro-X-ray-fluorescence (micro-XRF) data and sediment facies analysis of laminae reveal an alternation between predominantly terrigenous and diatom-dominated opal sedimentation. The diatomaceous laminae are interpreted to represent spring/summer productivity events related to the retreating sea ice margin.We identified five laminated sections in the deglacial part of our site. Lamina counts were carried out on these sections and correlated with the Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal phases in the North Greenland Ice Core (NGRIP) oxygen isotope record, indicating an annual deposition of individual lamina couplets (varves). The observed rapid decadal intensifications of anoxia, in particular within the Bølling-Allerød, are tightly coupled to short-term warm events through increases in regional export production. This dependence of laminae formation on warmer temperatures is underlined by a correlation with published Bering Sea sea surface temperature records and d18O data of planktic foraminifera from the Gulf of Alaska. The rapidity of the observed changes strongly implies a close atmospheric teleconnection between North Pacific and North Atlantic regions.We suggest that concomitant increases in export production and subsequent remineralization of organic matter in the Bering Sea, in combination with oxygen-poor waters entering the Being Sea, drove down oxygen concentrations to values below 0.1ml/l and caused laminae preservation. Calculated benthic-planktic ventilation ages show no significant variations throughout the last deglaciation, indicating that changes in formation rates or differing sources of North Pacific mid-depth waters are not prime candidates for strengthening the OMZ at our site. The age models established by our correlation procedure allow for the determination of calendar age control points for the Bølling-Allerød and the Preboreal that are independent of the initial radiocarbon-based chronology. Resulting surface reservoir ages range within 730-990 yr during the Bølling-Allerød, 800-1100 yr in the Younger Dryas, and 765-775 yr for the Preboreal.

Geochemistry for sediment core MD02-2496

Variations in chalcophile and redox-sensitive trace elements are examined at high-resolution intervals from a ~50 kyr long sediment core (MD02-2496) from the Vancouver Island margin. Enrichments of Ag, Cd, Re, U, and Mo above lithogenous levels, signifying sedimentary suboxia and anoxia, occurred during the early Holocene and Bølling/Allerød, and during warm interstadial events of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Down-core trace element profiles co-vary with productivity proxy records (opal, CaCO3, and marine organic carbon), and with sedimentary nitrogen isotope ratios, which reflect variably enriched nitrate upwelled from intermediate waters that were transported northward from the Eastern Tropical North Pacific. The similarity of the MD02-2496 record with records from the southern portion of the California Current System (CCS), and to the Greenland ice core oxygen isotope record during warm climate intervals, suggests that sedimentary redox conditions along the California Current responded to local productivity, to North Atlantic climate change and to tropical Pacific surface water processes via long-distance teleconnections. Concentrations of trace elements and productivity proxies were relatively depleted during the Younger Dryas, cool stadial events of MIS 3, and in two episodes of glaciomarine sedimentation from ~14.7 to 30.5 kyr BP (last glacial maximum, LGM), and from 44 to 50.4 kyr BP. Cordilleran Ice Sheet advancement onto the Vancouver Island continental shelf during the LGM led to intervals of increased terrigenous sedimentation and greatly reduced productivity not seen in the southern portion of the CCS, and along with ventilation of North Pacific Intermediate Waters, resulted in brief sedimentary oxic conditions.

Documentation of sediment core PS1392-1

The Late Quaternary sediment sequence of the continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea is well suited for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. Two cores from the upper slope, which contain the sedimentary record of the last 300 ky, have been sedimentologically investigated. Age models are based on lithostratigraphy and are correlated with the stable isotope record. As a result of a detailed analysis of the clay mineral composition, grain size distributions and structures, this sedimentary record provides the first marine evidence that the Antarctic ice sheet extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial. The variations in volume and size of the ice sheet were also simulated in numerical models. Changes in accumulation rate and ice temperature are of some importance, but the model revealed that fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in eustatic sea-level and that the ice edge extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial maximum. This causal relationship implies that the maximum ice extension strongly depends on the magnitude and duration of the sea-level depression during a glacial period. The results of the sedimentological investigations and of the numerical models show that the Antarctic ice sheet follows glacial events in the northern hemisphere by teleconnections of sea level.

Radiocarbon age, Mg/Ca and d18O measurements on planktonic foraminifera of sediment core GeoB12605-3

The sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Indian Ocean is a major component of global climate teleconnections. While the Holocene SST history is documented for regions affected by the Indian and Arabian monsoons, data from the near-equatorial western Indian Ocean are sparse. Reconstructing past zonal and meridional SST gradients requires additional information on past temperatures from the western boundary current region. We present a unique record of Holocene SST and thermocline depth variations in the tropical western Indian Ocean as documented in foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios and d18O from a sediment core off northern Tanzania. For Mg/Ca and thermocline d18O, most variance is concentrated in the centennial to bicentennial periodicity band. On the millennial time scale, an early to mid-Holocene (~7.8-5.6 ka) warm phase is followed by a temperature drop by up to 2°C, leading to a mid-Holocene cool interval (5.6-4.2 ka). The shift is accompanied by an initial reduction in the difference between surface and thermocline foraminiferal d18O, consistent with the thickening of the mixed layer and suggestions of a strengthened Walker circulation. However, we cannot confirm the expected enhanced zonal SST gradient, as the cooling of similar magnitude had previously been found in SSTs from the upwelling region off Sumatra and in Flores air temperatures. The SST pattern probably reflects the tropical Indian Ocean expression of a large-scale climate anomaly rather than a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like mean state.

Fractional abundances of isoprenoid and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT) of cores SO201-2-12KL and SO201-2-114KL

It has been proposed that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) evolution was intimately linked to North Atlantic climate oscillations during the last glacial-interglacial transition. However, during the early deglaciation and the Last Glacial Maximum, the SST development in the subarctic northwest Pacific and the Bering Sea is poorly constrained as most existing deglacial SST records are based on alkenone paleothermometry, which is limited prior to 15 ka B.P. in the subarctic North Pacific realm. By applying the TEXL86 temperature proxy we obtain glacial-Holocene-SST records for the marginal northwest Pacific and the Western Bering Sea. Our TEXL86-based records and existing alkenone data suggest that during the past 15.5 ka, SSTs in the northwest Pacific and the Western Bering Sea closely followed millennial-scale climate fluctuations known from Greenland ice cores, indicating rapid atmospheric teleconnections with abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Our SST reconstructions indicate that in the Western Bering Sea SSTs drop significantly during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), similar to the known North Atlantic climate history. In contrast, progressively rising SST in the northwest Pacific is different to the North Atlantic climate development during HS1. Similarities between the northwest Pacific SST and climate records from the Gulf of Alaska point to a stronger influence of Alaskan Stream waters connecting the eastern and western basin of the North Pacific during this time. During the Holocene, dissimilar climate trends point to reduced influence of the Alaskan Stream in the northwest Pacific.

Stable oxygen isotope record of coral core RUS-95 from the Red Sea

A 245-year coral oxygen isotope record from the northern Red Sea (Ras Umm Sidd/Egypt, ~28°N) in bimonthly resolution is presented. The mean annual coral delta18O signal apparently reflects varying proportions of both sea surface temperature and delta18Oseawater variability. In conjunction with instrumental observations of climate the coral record suggests for interannual and longer timescales that colder periods are accompanied by more arid conditions in the northern Red Sea but increased rainfall in the southeastern Mediterranean, whereas warmer periods are accompanied by decreased rainfall in the latter and less arid conditions in the northern Red Sea. A ~70-year oscillation of probably North Atlantic origin dominates the coral time series. Interannual to interdecadal variability is correlated with instrumental indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Pacific climate variability. The results suggest that these modes contributed consistently to Middle East climate variability since at least 1750, preferentially at a period of ~5.7 years.

Sea-surface temperature and salinity reconstruction for sediment core GeoB5844-2

We present high-resolution paleoceanographic records of surface and deep water conditions within the northern Red Sea covering the last glacial maximum and termination I using alkenone paleothermometry, stable oxygen isotopes, and sediment compositional data. Paleoceanographic records in the restricted desert-surrounded northern Red Sea are strongly affected by the stepwise sea level rise and appear to record and amplify well-known millennial-scale climate events from the North Atlantic realm. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), sea surface temperatures were about 4°C cooler than the late Holocene. Pronounced coolings associated with Heinrich event 1 (~2°C below the LGM level) and the Younger Dryas imply strong atmospheric teleconnections to the North Atlantic. Owing to the restricted exchange with the Indian Ocean, Red Sea salinity is particularly sensitive to changes in global sea level. Paleosalinities exceeded 50 psu during the LGM. A pronounced freshening of the surface waters is associated with the meltwater peaks MWP1a and MWP1b owing to an increased surface-near inflow of "normal" saline water from the Indian Ocean. Vertical delta18O gradients are also increased during these phases, indicating stronger surface water stratification. The combined effect of deglacial changes in sea surface temperature and salinity on water column stratification initiated the formation of two sapropel layers, which were deposited under almost anoxic condition in a stagnant water body.