Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Environmental effects of drought and abstractions of River Wharfe fisheries, summer 1997

This investigation was carried out to provide information on fish stocks and angling activity during 1997 in relation to the drought and, in particular, flows as influenced by Time Limited Licences. These abstractions will be for review in 1999. This report extends and updates the data presented for 1996. Fish population surveys (including eels) were undertaken on the main river and selected tributaries. Angler caught brown trout were examined, angler catch data have been reviewed, and observations by Environment Agency fisheries staff collated. It appeared that in River Wharfe both the fish populations and individual fish appeared to be in good condition and limited changes had occurred since the 1996 survey.

Environmental effects of drought and abstractions of River Ouse fisheries, summer 1997

This survey was the second year of a three year study to examine fish populations in relation to low flows, drought and abstraction in the River Ouse. To fully evaluate the possible effects on fisheries the study set out to encompass fish population surveys from fry to adult stock, analysis of angler catch data, reports from anglers and river reports from Environment Agency Fisheries staff.

River Wharfe fisheries monitoring report - summer 2001

This is a report on monitoring carried out in 2001 specifically in relation to effects of flows and abstractions on fisheries in the River Wharfe. The monitoring is a continuation of that started in relation to the Time Limited Abstraction Licences in 1996 and required by the new licences granted in 1999. It gives information regarding fish populations at a range of sites in the River Wharfe and also two tributary sites. It also gives recommendations for future investigations in relation to both Time Limited Licences and general broader issues.

River Ure fisheries monitoring report - summer 2001

Fish population studies in the River Ure have continued for their sixth successive year in order to examine and evaluate the effects of low flows and drought conditions particularly in relation to the Time Limited Licence abstraction at Kilgram Bridge, currently granted to Yorkshire Water Services. This monitoring report looks at the different fish populations and growth rates in the main river and tributaries, comparing the results to previous years. The report also looks at the general findings from angling, the medium term drought impacts, the abstraction impacts, and recommendations for investigations for 2002.

Larval abundance of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) as a measure of recruitment and stock status

Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) is one of the most economically and ecologically important estuarine-dependent species in the northeastern United States. The status of the population is currently a topic of controversy. Our goal was to assess the potential of using larval abundance at ingress as another fishery independent measure of spawning stock biomass or recruitment. Weekly long-term ichthyoplankton time series were analyzed from Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey (1989–2006) and Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina (1986–2004). Mean size-at-ingress and stage were similar between sites, whereas timing of ingress and abundance at ingress were not similar. Ingress primarily occurred during the fall at Little Egg Inlet and the winter at Beaufort Inlet. These findings agree with those from earlier studies in which at least two stocks (one north and one south of Cape Hatteras) were identified with different spawning periods. Larval abundance at Little Egg Inlet has increased since the late 1990s and most individuals now enter the estuary earlier during the season of ingress. Abundance at Little Egg Inlet was correlated with an increase in spawning stock biomass, presumably because spawning by larger, more abundant fish during the late 1990s and early 2000s provided increased larval supply, at least in some years. Larval abundance at ingress at Beaufort Inlet was not correlated with spawning stock biomass or with larval abundance at ingress at Little Egg Inlet, further supporting the hypothesis of at least two stocks. Larval abundance at Little Egg Inlet could be used as a fishery-independent index of spawning stock size north of Cape Hatteras in future stock assessments. Larval occurrence at Beaufort Inlet may provide information on the abundance of the stock south of Cape Hatteras, but additional stock assessment work is required.

Use of non-natal estuaries by migratory striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in summer

For most migratory fish, little is known about the location and size of foraging areas or how long individuals remain in foraging areas, even though these attributes may affect their growth, survival, and impact on local prey. We tested whether striped bass (Morone saxatilis Walbaum), found in Massachusetts in summer, were migratory, how long they stayed in non-natal estuaries, whether observed spatial patterns differed from random model predictions, whether fish returned to the same area across multiple years, and whether fishing effort could explain recapture patterns. Anchor tags were attached to striped bass that were caught and released in Massachusetts in 1999 and 2000, and recaptured between 1999 and 2007. In fall, tagged striped bass were caught south of where they were released in summer, confirming that fish were coastal migrants. In the first summer, 77% and 100% of the recaptured fish in the Great Marsh and along the Massachusetts coast, respectively, were caught in the same place where they were released. About two thirds of all fish recaptured near where they were released were caught 2–7 years after tagging. Our study shows that smaller (400–500 mm total length) striped bass migrate hundreds of kilometers along the Atlantic Ocean coast, cease their mobile lifestyle in summer when they use a relatively localized area for foraging (<20 km2), and return to these same foraging areas in subsequent ye

The trophic dynamics of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in Chesapeake Bay

Data on the trophic dynamics of fishes are needed for management of ecosystems such as Chesapeake Bay. Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) are an abundant seasonal resident of the bay and have the potential to impact foodweb dynamics. Analyses of diet data for late juvenile and adult summer flounder collected from 2002−2006 in Chesapeake Bay were conducted to characterize the role of this flatfish in this estuary and to contribute to our understanding of summer flounder trophic dynamics throughout its range. Despite the diversity of prey, nearly half of the diet comprised mysid shrimp (Neomysis spp.) and bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli). Ontogenetic differences in diet and an increase in diet diversity with increasing fish size were documented. Temporal (inter- and intra-annual) changes were also detected, as well as trends in diet reflecting peaks in abundance and diversity of prey. The preponderance of fishes in the diet of summer flounder indicates that this species is an important piscivorous predator in Chesapeake Bay.

Abundance and distribution of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in central and northern California during 1998 and summer 1999

The abundance and distribution of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in central and northern California was studied to allow future evaluation of their impact on salmonids, the ecosystem, and f isheries. Abundance at-sea was estimated by using the strip transect method from a fixed-wing aircraft with a belly viewing port. Abundance on land was estimated from 126-mm-format aerial photographs of animals at haulouts between Point Conception and the California−Oregon border. The sum of these two estimates represented total abundance for central and northern California. Both types of survey were conducted in May−June 1998, September 1998, December 1998, and July 1999. A haulout survey was conducted in July 1998. The greatest number of sea lions occurred near Monterey Bay and San Francisco Bay for all surveys. Abundance was high in central and northern California in 1998 when warm water from the 1997−98 El Niño affected the region and was low in July 1999 when cold water La Niña conditions were prevalent. At-sea abundance estimates in central and northern California ranged from 12,232 to 40,161 animals, and haulout abundance was 13,559 to 36,576 animals. Total abundance of California sea lions in central and northern California was estimated as 64,916 in May−June 1998, 75,673 in September 1998, 56,775 in December 1998, and 25,791 in July 1999. The proportion of total abundance to animals hauled-out for the four complete surveys ranged from 1.77 to 2.13, and the mean of 1.89 was used to estimate a total abundance of 49,697 for July 1998. This multiplier may be applicable in the future to estimate total abundance of California sea lions off central and northern California if only the abundance of animals at haulout sites is known.

A Brief Interpretation of Summer Flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, Movements and Stock Structure with New Tagging Data on Juveniles

Summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, are managed as a single stock along the Atlantic coast from the U.S.– Canada border to the southern border of North Carolina. Justification of the single-stock approach is based on lack of genetic evidence for multiple stocks and the difficulty presented by managing the species from Cape Hatteras to the U.S.–Canada border. In this review, we present an interpretation of various morphometric, meristic, biochemical, and tagging studies, published and unpublished, that indicate the presence of two, or possibly three, distinct stocks in the management area. In addition, we have included new data from a tagging study that was conducted on juveniles from Virginia that aids in defining the stock(s) north of Cape Hatteras. Summer flounder, overfished for the past two decades, is recovering, and reconsideration of proposed stock structure could have direct implications for management policy decisions.

PICES Press, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 2010

•The 2010 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-3) •2010 Symposium on “Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries” (pp. 4-11) •2009 Mechanism of North Pacific Low Frequency Variability Workshop (pp. 12-14) •The Fourth China-Japan-Korea GLOBEC/IMBER Symposium (pp. 15-17, 23) •2010 Sendai Ocean Acidification Workshop (pp. 18-19, 31) •2010 Sendai Coupled Climate-to-Fish-to-Fishers Models Workshop (pp. 20-21) •2010 Sendai Salmon Workshop on Climate Change (pp. 22-23) •2010 Sendai Zooplankton Workshop (pp. 24-25, 28) •2010 Sendai Workshop on “Networking across Global Marine Hotspots” (pp. 26-28) •The Ocean, Salmon, Ecology and Forecasting in 2010 (pp. 29, 44) •The State of the Northeast Pacific during the Winter of 2009/2010 (pp. 30-31) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2009 (pp. 32-33) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 34-35, 39) •PICES Seafood Safety Project: Guatemala Training Program (pp. 36-39) •The Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem and Climate Study (POBEX) (pp. 40-43) •PICES Calendar (p. 44)

PICES Press, Vol. 19, No. 2, Summer 2011

•The 2011 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-4) •Indicators for Status and Change within North Pacific Marine Ecosystems: A FUTURE Workshop (pp. 5-8) •PICES Calendar (p. 8) •2011 ESSAS Open Science Meeting (pp. 9-13) •The 5th Zooplankton Production Symposium (pp. 14-17) •Workshop on "Individual-Based Models of Zooplankton” (pp. 18-21) •New Book Release on the 100th Anniversary of the T/S Osharu Maru (p. 21) •Workshop on “Advances in Genomic and Molecular Studies of Zooplankton” (pp. 22-24) •Workshop on “Updates and Comparisons of Zooplankton Time Series” (pp. 25-27) •Workshop on “Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Zooplankton” (pp. 28-29) •Workshop on “Automated Visual Plankton Identification” (p. 30) •Professor Plum in the Dining Room with a Knife (p. 31) •PICES and ICES on the River Elbe (p. 32) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2010 (pp. 33-34) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 35-37) •Northeast Pacific News (pp. 38-39) •PICES Advice on Marine Ecology at a Canadian Judicial Inquiry (p. 40)

PICES Press, Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 2012

•The 2012 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-4) ◾PICES Interns (p. 4) ◾2012 Inter-sessional Workshop on a Roadmap for FUTURE (pp. 5-8) ◾Second Symposium on “Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans” (pp. 9-13) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Framework for Ocean Observing” (pp. 14-15) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Climate Change Projections” (pp. 16-17) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Coastal Blue Carbon” (pp. 18-20) ◾Polar Comparisons: Summary of 2012 Yeosu Workshop (pp. 21-23) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Climate Change and Range Shifts in the Oceans" (pp. 24-27) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Beyond Dispersion” (pp. 28-30) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Public Perception of Climate Change” (pp. 31, 50) ◾PICES Working Group 20: Accomplishments and Legacy (pp. 32-33) ◾The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2011 (pp. 34-35) ◾Another Cold Winter in the Gulf of Alaska (pp. 36-37) ◾The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 38-40) ◾PICES/ICES 2012 Conference for Early Career Marine Scientists (pp. 41-43) ◾Completion of the PICES Seafood Safety Project – Indonesia (pp. 44-46) ◾Oceanography Improves Salmon Forecasts (p. 47) ◾2012 GEOHAB Open Science Meeting (p. 48-50) ◾Shin-ichi Ito awarded 2011 Uda Prize (p. 50)