A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.

Sufficient conditions for zeno behavior in lagrangian hybrid systems

This paper presents easily verifiable sufficient conditions for the existence of Zenobehavior in Lagrangian hybrid systems, i.e., hybrid systems modeling mechanical systemsundergoing impacts. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Local histogram based geometric invariant image watermarking

Compared with other existing methods, the feature point-based image watermarking schemes can resist to global geometric attacks and local geometric attacks, especially cropping and random bending attacks (RBAs), by binding watermark synchronization with salient image characteristics. However, the watermark detection rate remains low in the current feature point-based watermarking schemes. The main reason is that both of feature point extraction and watermark embedding are more or less related to the pixel position, which is seriously distorted by the interpolation error and the shift problem during geometric attacks. In view of these facts, this paper proposes a geometrically robust image watermarking scheme based on local histogram. Our scheme mainly consists of three components: (1) feature points extraction and local circular regions (LCRs) construction are conducted by using Harris-Laplace detector; (2) a mechanism of grapy theoretical clustering-based feature selection is used to choose a set of non-overlapped LCRs, then geometrically invariant LCRs are completely formed through dominant orientation normalization; and (3) the histogram and mean statistically independent of the pixel position are calculated over the selected LCRs and utilized to embed watermarks. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can provide sufficient robustness against geometric attacks as well as common image processing operations. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

巴丹吉林沙漠近40a风沙活动规律浅析

Based on the data of wind from 11 meteorological observation stations in recent 40 years, the paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of resultant drift potential in the Badain Jaran Desert. The 84 sand samples were collected and analysed from three compound crescentic dunes developped on southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert. Through the statistics and computation of wind data and the analysis of Grain Size over compound crescentic dunes in The Badain Jaran Desert, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the blown sand activities in in this area. The following viewpoints were obtained: 1　Most parts of The Badain Jaran Desert are dominated by northwest wind and sub－dominated by west wind, while prevailing wind in southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert is southeast, different froms other places. 2 The Badain Jaran Desert is strongly zoned from its surounding meteorological observation stations. It has impressively high DP and RDP value. Except for Ding Xin Station in medium wind power environment, the left stations are all belongs to high wind－power districts. 3 From the seventies till now, the value of DP and RDP in The Badain Jaran Desert shows a decending trend except for the RDP value of Guai Zihu Station in the north. This trend indicates that the wind power for the moment of The Badain Jaran Desert is far lower than it in the seventies. 4 Adopting sand rose map for classification of wind environments in defferent parts of The Badain Jaran Desert, Ejinaqi is Narrow unimodal wind regimes, Ding xin, Bayinmaodao and Ayouqi districts obtuse bimodal and Guaizihu complex. 5 Resultant drift directions in most parts of the Badain Jaran desert are southeast, which indicates annual net sand in these areas drifted from the northwest to the southeast of the desert, which consists with the analysis results of grain size of predecessors. RDD in Ayouqi staion shows the net sand drifted from the southeast to the northwest in the recent 40 years, which may attribute to the reason that, the Badain Jaran desert lies in the zone influenced by both northwest and southeast wind, the southeast monsoon was strengthened and northwest wind became weaker than a former time. So, if sand mareria is sufficient, there are two different drift directions, namely two sorts of sand source, existed in Badain Jaran desert at least. 6 Based on analysis results of meteorologic data and grain size, blown sand activities is that, in most parts of Badain Jaran desert in the past 40 years, northwest wind transported net sand from the northwest part to the southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert.And besides this, analysis of collected sand samples also shows that, in the southeast part of Badain Jaran desert, grain size do fined from southeast to northwest. Combining results of meteorologic data in the southeast part, it can infered that southeast monsoon took blown sand to the inner desert from its southeast part.

太阳活动变化对中低纬电离层的影响

With the variations of solar activity, solar EUV and X-ray radiations change over different timescales (e.g., from solar cycle variation to solar flare burst). Since solar EUV and X-ray radiations are the primary energy sources for the ionosphere, theirs variations undoubtedly produce significant and complicated effects on the ionosphere. So the variations of solar activity significantly affect the ionosphere. It is essential for both ionospheric theory and applications to study solar activity effects on the ionosphere. The study about solar activity variations of the ionosphere is an important part of the ionospheric climatology. It can enhance the understanding for the basic processes in the ionosphere, ionospheric structure and its change, ionosphere/thermosphere coupling, and so on. As for applications, people need sufficient knowledges about solar activity variations of the ionosphere in order to improve ionospheric models so that more accurate forecast for the ionospheric environments can be made. Presently, the whole image about the modalities of ionospheric solar activity variations is still unknown, and related mechanisms still cannot be well understood. This paper is about the effects of the 11-year change in solar activity to the low- and mid-latitude ionosphere. We use multi-type ionospheric observations and model to investigate solar activity effects on the electron density and ionospheric spatial structure, and we focus on discussing some related mechanisms. The main works are as follows: Firstly, solar activity variations of ionospheric peak electron density (NmF2) around 1400 LT were investigated using ionosonde observations in the 120°E sector. The result shows that the variation trend of NmF2 with F107 depends on latitudes and seasons. There is obvious saturation trend in low latitudes in all seasons; while in middle latitudes, NmF2 increases linearly with F107 in winter but saturates with F107 at higher solar activity levels in the other seasons. We calculated the photochemical equilibrium electron density to discuss the effects induced by the changes of neutral atmosphere and dynamics processes on the solar activity variations of NmF2. We found that: (1) Seasonal variation of neutral atmosphere plays an important role in the seasonal difference of the solar activity variations of NmF2 in middle latitudes. (2) Less [O]/[N2] and higher neutral temperature are important for the saturation effect in summer, and the increase of vibrational excited N2 is also important for the saturation effect. (3) Dynamics processes can significantly weaken the increase of NmF2 when solar activity enhances, which is also a necessary factor for the saturation effect. Secondly, solar activity variations of nighttime NmF2 were investigated using ionosonde observations in the 120°E sector. The result shows that the variation trends of NmF2 with F107 in nighttime are different from that in daytime in some cases, and the nighttime variation trends depend on seasons. There is linear increase trend in equinox nighttime, and saturation trend in summer nighttime, while the increase rate of NmF2 with F107 increases when solar activity enhances in winter nighttime (we term it with “amplification trend”). We discussed the possible mechanisms which affect the solar activity variations of nighttime NmF2. The primary conclusions are as follows: (1) In the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region, the plasma influx induced by the pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) results in the change of the variation trend between NmF2 and F107 from “saturation” to “linear” after sunset in equinoxes and winter; while the recombination process at the F2-peak is the primary factor that affects the variation trend of NmF2 with F107 in middle latitudes. (2) The recombination coefficient at the F2-peak height reaches its maximum at moderate solar activity level in winter nighttime, which induces NmF2 attenuates more quickly at moderate solar activity level. This is the main reason for the amplification trend. (3) The change of the recombination process at the F2-peak with solar activity depends on the increases of neutral parameters (temperature, density et al.) and the F2-peak height (hmF2). The seasonal differences in the changes of neutral atmosphere and hmF2 with solar activity are the primary reasons for the seasonal difference in the variation trend of nighttime NmF2 with F107. Finally, we investigated the solar activity dependence of the topside ionosphere in low latitudes using ROCSAT-1 satellite (at 600 km altitude) observations. The primary results and conclusions are as follows: (1) Latitudinal distribution of the plasma density is local time, seasonal, and solar activity dependent. In daytime, there is a plasma density peak at the dip equator. The peak is obviously enhanced at high solar activity level, and the strength of the peak strongly depends on seasons. While at sunset, two profound plasma density peaks (double-peak structure) are found in solar maximum equinox months. (2) Local time dependence of the latitudinal distribution is due to the local time variation of the equatorial dynamics processes. Double-peak structure is attributed to the fountain effect induced by strong PRE. Daytime peak enhances with solar activity since the plasma density increases with solar activity more strongly at the dip equator due to the equatorial vertical drift, and its seasonal dependence is mainly due to the seasonal variations of neutral density and the equatorial vertical drift. In the sunset sector, seasonal and solar activity dependences of the latitudinal distribution are related to the seasonal and solar activity variations of PRE. (3) The variation trend of the plasma density with solar activity shows local time, seasonal, and latitudinal differences. That is different from the changeless amplification trend at the DMSP altitude (840 km). Profound saturation effect is found in the dip equator region at equinox sunset. This saturation effect in the topside ionosphere is realated to the increase of PRE with solar activity. Solar activity variation trend of the topside plasma density was discussed quantitatively by Chapman-α function. The result shows that the effect induced by the change of the scale height is dominant at high altitudes; while the variation trend of ROCSAT-1 plasma density with solar activity is suggested to be related to the changes of the peak height, the scale height, and the peak electron density with solar activity.

博兴洼陷西部砂体成因与油气成藏研究

Based on achievements of thirty years of hydrocarbon exploration, this paper uses the modern theories and methods of sedimentology and oil accumulation to study the origin and distribution features of four sandbodies of Gaoqing, Fanjia, Zhenglizhuang and Jinjia from the third member to the lower second member of Shahejie Formation in detail. Various geophysical methods are also used to explain and to predict the spatial distribution of sandbodies, which further shows mechanism and the model of oil accumulation and illuminates the disciplinarians of oil enrichment and its controlling factors in the study area. The most favourable oil pools predicted by this paper have significant economic and social benefits, which has been confirmed by the exploration. The main conclusions and knowledge includes: (1) Resolving the problems, which remain unresolvable for a long time in the western area of Boxing depression, about the original environment and the spatial distribution of sandbodies of Gaoqing, Fanjia, Zhenglizhuang and Jinjia, and illuminating their relationships. It is suggested that two deltas or delta-related sandbody sediments, which include the delta sandbodies of Jinjia and Gaoqing and their frontal turbidite fan sandbody, are developed in the second and third members of Shahejie Formation. The sandbodies of Fanjia, Gaoqing and Zhenglizhuang are components of Gaoqing delta and belong to the sediments of various periods in different part of the delta. Whereas, the sandbody of Jinjia belong to the Jinjia delta or fan-delta created by the uplift of the Western Shandong and in some areas shows the features of juxtaposition, superimposed deposition and fingeration with the sandbodies of Gaoqing and Zhenglizhuang. (2)Proposing that the sandbodies of different origins in the deltas of Gaoqing and Jinjia have obvious different reservoir qualities, among which the delta frontal bedded sandbodies in the second member of Shahejie Formation in Zhenglizhuang are the best ones and the turbidite sandbody of Fanjia is relatively worse. This shows the direction of further reservoir prediction. (3) According to modern petroleum system theory and continental pool-formation theory, the author divided the western area of Boxing depression into the Jinjia—Zhenglizhuang—Fanjia nose structure belt pool-formation system and the Gaoqing fracture belt pool-formation system. The study area is predominantly located in the former belt and subdivided into pool-formation sub-systems of Zhenglizhuang-Fanjia and Jinjia, which have the source rock of mudstone and oil shale from the upper forth member and the third member of Shahejie Formation in Boxing depression. The hydrocarbon migration and accumulation are controlled by Jinjia-Zhenglizhuang-fanjia nose structure and Gaoqing fracture. (4)Proposing that compared with the best developed sandbodies and traps in the west area of Boxing, the source from the Boxing depression is not sufficient, which is the fundamental reason that the hydrocarbon resources in mid-west area is less than in the east of Boxing. (5) Under the direction of the new theory (fluid compartments theory) and new method of modern pool-formation mechanism, two kinds of pool-formation model are established in study, i.e. inner-compartment model and outer-compartment model. The former has abnormal pressure and is the antigenic source seal pool-forming mechanism, whereas the latter has normal pressure and is of the allochthonous source opening pool-formation mechanism. (6)The study shows that the four sandbodies of Gaoqing, Fanjia, Jinjia and Zhenglizhuang sand are all very benefit for pool-formation, among which the Fanjia sandbody is the best favourable one and is likely to form lithological reservoir and fault-lithological reservoir. But the main step of exploration in Gaoqing, Zhenglizhuang sandbodies should be finding out the fault block, reversed roof and stratum-lithological oil reservoir. (7)Established a set of guidelines and techniques for the research and exploration in the large scale of sandbodies. Proposing that the various traps related to reversed fault and basin-ward fault should be found in step slopes and gentle slopes respectively, and the lithological oil reservoir should mainly be found in the sandstone updip pinch out. It is also suggested that Fanjia sandbody is most favourable to form the lithological and fault-lithological and the Gaoqing, Zhenglizhuang and Jinjia sandbodies have the potential of forming fault block, reversed roof and stratum-lithological oil reservoir. (8) Interpretation and prediction the spatial distribution of main sandbodies based on various geophysical methods suggestion that Fanxi, Gao28 south and Gao27 east have better exploration potential.

Intelligence Without Reason

Computers and Thought are the two categories that together define Artificial Intelligence as a discipline. It is generally accepted that work in Artificial Intelligence over the last thirty years has had a strong influence on aspects of computer architectures. In this paper we also make the converse claim; that the state of computer architecture has been a strong influence on our models of thought. The Von Neumann model of computation has lead Artificial Intelligence in particular directions. Intelligence in biological systems is completely different. Recent work in behavior-based Artificial Intelligenge has produced new models of intelligence that are much closer in spirit to biological systems. The non-Von Neumann computational models they use share many characteristics with biological computation.

The critique of dialectical reason: from need to need, circularly

New-Haven

Reason, risk, and reward: Models for libraries and other stakeholders in an evolving scholarly publishing ecosystem

Scholarly publishing, and scholarly communication more generally, are based on patterns established over many decades and even centuries. Some of these patterns are clearly valuable and intimately related to core values of the academy, but others were based on the exigencies of the past, and new opportunities have brought into question whether it makes sense to persist in supporting old models. New technologies and new publishing models raise the question of how we should fund and operate scholarly publishing and scholarly communication in the future, moving away from a scarcity model based on the exchange of physical goods that restricts access to scholarly literature unless a market-based exchange takes place. This essay describes emerging models that attempt to shift scholarly communication to a more open-access and mission-based approach and that try to retain control of scholarship by academics and the institutions and scholarly societies that support them. It explores changing practices for funding scholarly journals and changing services provided by academic libraries, changes instituted with the end goal of providing more access to more readers, stimulating new scholarship, and removing inefficiencies from a system ready for change. © 2014 by the American Anthropological Association.

Rhyme and Reason: Analyses of Dual Retrieval Cues

If and only if each single cue uniquely defines its target, a independence model based on fragment theory can predict the strength of a combined dual cue from the strengths of its single cue components. If the single cues do not each uniquely define their target, no single monotonic function can predict the strength of the dual cue from its components; rather, what matters is the number of possible targets. The probability of generating a target word was .19 for rhyme cues, .14 for category cues, and .97 for rhyme-plus-category dual cues. Moreover, some pairs of cues had probabilities of producing their targets of .03 when used individually and 1.00 when used together, whereas other pairs had moderate probabilities individually and together. The results, which are interpreted in terms of multiple constraints limiting the number of responses, show why rhymes, which play a minimal role in laboratory studies of memory, are common in real-world mnemonics.

Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Bound States in a Potential without Spherical Symmetry

We give in this paper several suffieient conditions for the existence of negative energy bound states in a purely attractive potential without spherical symmetry. These conditions generalize the condition obtained recently by K. Chadan and A. Martin (C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris290 (1980), 151), and can ensure the existence of n bound states. For the spherically symmetric case, one gets simple formulae which are also new.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Disponibilidad del recurso hídrico en la microcuenca del río Bermúdez. Región central de Costa Rica.

La microcuenca del río Bermúdez es parte de la principal zona de explotación hídrica en la región Central de Costa Rica, razón por la cual se realiza un diagnóstico de la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico en esta microcuenca donde se identifican las áreas con mayor problemática de disponibilidad de este recurso. Para ello se calculó un balance hídrico mensual, según uso del suelo, unidad geomorfológica y zona climática. Con base en este balance se determinó y clasificó la disponibilidad del recurso, identificando en la microcuenca solamente tres categorías: alta, media y moderada. No existen áreas de baja disponibilidad de recurso hídrico lo que demuestra que la oferta es suficiente, sin embargo, existe una presión importante sobre el recurso hídrico pues más de la mitad del área de la microcuenca se encuentra con una disponibilidad moderada.