Real estate portfolio construction and estimation risk

The use of MPT in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex-ante framework: (1) the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights and (2) the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means Jorion (1985). Thus the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub-optimal results in subsequent periods. This suggests that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy. Therefore, following Eun & Resnick (1988), this study extends previous ex-ante based studies by evaluating optimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations.

Doll Play narratives about starting school in children of socially anxious mothers, and their relation to subsequent child school-based anxiety

Background: Child social anxiety is common, and predicts later emotional and academic impairment. Offspring of socially anxious mothers are at increased risk. It is important to establish whether individual vulnerability to disorder can be identified in young children. Method: The responses of 4.5 year-old children of mothers with social phobia (N = 62) and non-anxious mothers (N = 60) were compared, two months before school entry, using a Doll Play (DP) procedure focused on the social challenge of starting school. DP responses were examined in relation to teacher reports of anxious-depressed symptoms and social worries at the end of the child’s first school term. The role of earlier child behavioral inhibition and attachment, assessed at 14 months, was also considered. Results: Compared to children of non-anxious mothers, children of mothers with social phobia were significantly more likely to give anxiously negative responses in their school DP (OR = 2.57). In turn, negative DP predicted teacher reported anxious-depressed and social worry problems. There were no effects of infant behavioral inhibition or attachment. Conclusion: Vulnerability in young children at risk of anxiety can be identified using Doll Play narratives.

The effect of chlortetracycline treatment and its subsequent withdrawal on multi-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and commensal Escherichia coli in the pig

Aims: To investigate the effect of a therapeutic and sub-therapeutic chlortetracycline treatment on tetracyclineresistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and on the commensal Escherichia coli in pig. Methods and Results: Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 was orally administered in all pigs prior to antibiotic treatment, and monitored with the native E. coli. Higher numbers of S. Typhimurium DT104 were shed from treated pigs than untreated pigs. This lasted up to 6 weeks post-treatment in the high-dose group. In this group, there was a 30% increase in E. coli with a chlortetracycline minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) > 16 mg l(-1) and a 10% increase in E. coli with an MIC > 50 mg l(-1) during and 2 weeks post-treatment. This effect was less-pronounced in the low-dose group. PCR identified the predominant tetracycline resistance genes in the E. coli as tetA, tetB and tetC. The concentration of chlortetracycline in the pig faeces was measured by HPLC and levels reached 80 mug g(-1) faeces during treatment. Conclusion: Chlortetracycline treatment increases the proportion of resistant enteric bacteria beyond the current withdrawal time. Significance and Impact of the Study: Treated pigs are more likely to enter abattoirs with higher levels of resistant bacteria than untreated pigs promoting the risk of these moving up the food chain and infecting man.

Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Genetic polymorphisms in the hypothalamic pathway in relation to subsequent weight change--the DiOGenes study

BACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding the components involved in the hypothalamic pathway may influence weight gain and dietary factors may modify their effects. AIM: We conducted a case-cohort study to investigate the associations of SNPs in candidate genes with weight change during an average of 6.8 years of follow-up and to examine the potential effect modification by glycemic index (GI) and protein intake. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants, aged 20-60 years at baseline, came from five European countries. Cases ('weight gainers') were selected from the total eligible cohort (n = 50,293) as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain (n = 5,584). A random subcohort (n = 6,566) was drawn with the intention to obtain an equal number of cases and noncases (n = 5,507). We genotyped 134 SNPs that captured all common genetic variation across the 15 candidate genes; 123 met the quality control criteria. Each SNP was tested for association with the risk of being a 'weight gainer' (logistic regression models) in the case-noncase data and with weight gain (linear regression models) in the random subcohort data. After accounting for multiple testing, none of the SNPs was significantly associated with weight change. Furthermore, we observed no significant effect modification by dietary factors, except for SNP rs7180849 in the neuromedin β gene (NMB). Carriers of the minor allele had a more pronounced weight gain at a higher GI (P = 2 x 10⁻⁷). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of association between SNPs in the studied hypothalamic genes with weight change. The interaction between GI and NMB SNP rs7180849 needs further confirmation.

Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.

The use of culture-independent tools to characterize bacteria in endo-tracheal aspirates from pre-term infants at risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Although premature infants are increasingly surviving the neonatal period, up to one-third develop bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Despite evidence that bacterial colonization of the neonatal respiratory tract by certain bacteria may be a risk factor in BPD development, little is known about the role these bacteria play. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of culture-independent molecular profiling methodologies to identify potential etiological agents in neonatal airway secretions. This study used terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) and clone sequence analyses to characterize bacterial species in endo-tracheal (ET) aspirates from eight intubated pre-term infants. A wide range of different bacteria was identified in the samples. Forty-seven T-RF band lengths were resolved in the sample set, with a range of 0-15 separate species in each patient. Clone sequence analyses confirmed the identity of individual species detected by T-RFLP. We speculate that the identification of known opportunistic pathogens including S. aureus, Enterobacter sp., Moraxella catarrhalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Streptococcus sp., within the airways of pre-term infants, might be causally related to the subsequent development of BPD. Further, we suggest that culture-independent techniques, such as T-RFLP, hold important potential for the characterization of neonatal conditions, such as BPD.

The effect of nutrient fortification of sauces on product stability, sensory properties and subsequent liking by older adults

There are potential nutritional and sensory benefits of adding sauces to hospital meals. The aim of this study was to develop nutrient fortified sauces with acceptable sensory properties suitable for older people at risk of under-nutrition. Tomato, gravy and white sauce were fortified with macro and micro-nutrients using food ingredients rich in energy and protein as well as vitamin and mineral premixes. Sensory profile was assessed by a trained panel. Hedonic liking of fortified compared with standard sauces was evaluated by healthy older volunteers. The fortified sauces had higher nutritional value than the conventional ones, for example the energy content of the fortified tomato, white sauce and gravy formulations were increased between 2.5 and 4 fold compared to their control formulations. Healthy older consumers preferred the fortified tomato sauce compared with unfortified. There were no significant differences in liking between the fortified and standard option for gravy. There were limitations in the extent of fortification with protein, potassium and magnesium, as excessive inclusion resulted in bitterness, undesired flavours or textural issues. This was particularly marked in the white sauce to the extent that their sensory characteristics were not sufficiently optimised for hedonic testing. It is proposed that the development of fortified sauces is a simple approach to improving energy intake for hospitalised older people, both through the nutrient composition of the sauce itself and due to the benefits of increasing sensorial taste and lubrication in the mouth.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

Risk factors for dengue virus infection in rural Amazonia: Population-based cross-sectional surveys

A comparison of dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels in paired serum samples collected from predominantly DENV-naive residents in an agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia (baseline seroprevalence, 18.3%) showed a seroconversion rate of 3.67 episodes/100 person-years at risk during 12 months of follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, poverty, and migration from extra-Amazonian states as significant predictors of baseline DENY seropositivity, whereas male sex, a history of clinical diagnosis of dengue fever, and travel to an urban area predicted subsequent seroconversion. The laboratory surveillance of acute febrile illnesses implemented at the study site and in a nearby town between 2004 and 2006 confirmed 11. DENV infections among 102 episodes studied with DENV IgM detection, reverse transcriptase-polymerise chain reaction, and virus isolation; DENV-3 was isolated. Because DENV exposure is associated with migration or travel, personal protection measures when visiting high-risk urban areas may reduce the incidence of DENV infection in this rural population.

Effective measures to decrease air contaminants through risk and control visualization : a study of the effective use of QR codes to facilitate safety training

Woodworking industries still consists of wood dust problems. Young workers are especially vulnerable to safety risks. To reduce risks, it is important to change attitudes and increase knowledge about safety. Safety training have shown to establish positive attitudes towards safety among employees. The aim of current study is to analyze the effect of QR codes that link to Picture Mix EXposure (PIMEX) videos by analyzing attitudes to this safety training method and safety in student responses. Safety training videos were used in upper secondary school handicraft programs to demonstrate wood dust risks and methods to decrease exposure to wood dust. A preliminary study was conducted to investigate improvement of safety training in two schools in preparation for the main study that investigated a safety training method in three schools. In the preliminary study the PIMEX method was first used in which students were filmed while wood dust exposure was measured and subsequently displayed on a computer screen in real time. Before and after the filming, teachers, students, and researchers together analyzed wood dust risks and effective measures to reduce exposure to them. For the main study, QR codes linked to PIMEX videos were attached at wood processing machines. Subsequent interviews showed that this safety training method enables students in an early stage of their life to learn about risks and safety measures to control wood dust exposure. The new combination of methods can create awareness, change attitudes and motivation among students to work more frequently to reduce wood dust. 

Serum inhibin A and angiogenic factor levels in pregnancies with previous preeclampsia and/or chronic hypertension: are they useful markers for prediction of subsequent preeclampsia?

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether measurement of placenta growth factor (PLGF), inhibin A, or soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) at 2 times during pregnancy would usefully predict subsequent preeclampsia ( PE) in women at high risk. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed serum obtained at enrollment (12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks) and follow-up (24-28 weeks) from 704 patients with previous PE and/or chronic hypertension (CHTN) enrolled in a randomized trial for the prevention of PE. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association of log-transformed markers with subsequent PE; receiver operating characteristic analysis assessed predictive value. RESULTS: One hundred four developed preeclampsia: 27 at 37 weeks or longer and 77 at less than 37 weeks (9 at less than 27 weeks). None of the markers was associated with PE at 37 weeks or longer. Significant associations were observed between PE at less than 37 weeks and reduced PLGF levels at baseline (P =.022) and follow-up (P <.0001) and elevated inhibin A (P <.0001) and sFlt-1 (P =.0002) levels at follow-up; at 75% specificity, sensitivities ranged from 38% to 52%. Using changes in markers from baseline to follow-up, sensitivities were 52-55%. Associations were observed between baseline markers and PE less than 27 weeks (P <=.0004 for all); sensitivities were 67-89%, but positive predictive values (PPVs) were only 3.4-4.5%. CONCLUSION: Inhibin A and circulating angiogenic factors levels obtained at 12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks have significant associations with onset of PE at less than 27 weeks, as do levels obtained at 24-28 weeks with onset of PE at less than 37 weeks. However, because the corresponding sensitivities and/or PPVs were low, these markers might not be clinically useful to predict PE in women with previous PE and/or CHTN.

Risk of peritonitis during peritoneal dialysis in carriers of Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci

The presence of Staphylococcus aureus in the nasal cavities and pericatheter skin of peritoneal dialysis patients put them at high risk of developing peritonitis. However, it is not clear whether the presence of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) in the nasal passages and skin of patients is related to subsequent occurrence of peritoneal infection. The aim of the present study was to verify the relationship between endogenous sources of S. aureus and CNS and occurrence of peritonitis in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis. Thirty-two patients on peritoneal hemodialysis were observed for 18 months. Staphylococcus species present in their nasal passage, pericatheter skin and peritoneal effluent were identified and compared based on drug susceptibility tests and dendrograms, which were drawn to better visualize the similarity among strains from extraperitoneal sites as well as their involvement in the causes of infection. Out of 288 Staphylococcus strains isolated, 155 (53.8%) were detected in the nasal cavity, 122 (42.4%) on the skin, and 11 (3.8%) in the peritoneal effluent of patients who developed peritonitis during the study. The most frequent Staphylococcus species were CNS (78.1%), compared with S. aureus (21.9%). Among CNS, S. epidermidis was predominant (64.4%), followed by S. warneri (15.1%), S. haemolyticus (10.7%), and other species (9.8%). Seven (64%) out of 11 cases of peritonitis analyzed presented similar strains. The same strain was isolated from different sites in two (66%) out of three S. aureus infection cases. In the six cases of S. epidermidis peritonitis, the species that caused infection was also found in the normal flora. From these, two cases (33%) presented highly similar strains and in three cases (50%), it was difficult to group strains as to similarity. Patients colonized with multidrug-resistant S. epidermidis strains were more predisposed to infection. Results demonstrated that an endogenous source of S. epidermidis could cause peritonitis in peritoneal dialysis patients, similarly to what has been observed with S. aureus.

Analysis of the risk factors relating to cows' resistance to Rhipicephalus microplus ticks during the peripartum

This study aimed to evaluate season, breed, number of lactations and milk production as risk factors relating to Rhipicephalus microplus infestation in dairy cows during the peripartum. Eighty-four animals were randomly selected through proportional stratified sampling. All engorged and partially engorged female R. microplus specimens measuring 4.5-8.0 mm were counted during the 5 weeks before calving, calving week and 5 weeks after calving. The peripartum had a significant effect [calving (p < 0.05; prevalence ratio (PR)= 3.12) and post calving (p < 0.05; PR = 2.02)] on R. microplus infestation. Although the average tick count was higher during the rainy season than during the dry season, there was no significant difference (p = 0.055; PR = 0.63). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 2.10) in Bos taurus animals, followed by F1 (p < 0.05; PR = 1.64) and Girolando (p < 0.05; PR = 1.39). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 0.97) in first-lactation animals, followed by those at the second, third and, fourth or subsequent lactation. Milk production showed a negative correlation with R. microplus count, such that high-production animals were significantly (p = 0.003; PR = 2.04) more vulnerable to infestation than were low-production animals. First-lactation and high-production B. taurus animals had greatest vulnerability to R. microplus infestation over the peripartum period, and constituted the at-risk group in the dairy herd.u

Chapter III: Management of cardiovascular risk factors and medical therapy

Critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is a particularly severe manifestation of lower limb atherosclerosis posing a major threat to both limb and life of affected patients. Besides arterial revascularisation, risk-factor modification and administration of antiplatelet therapy is a major goal in the treatment of CLI patients. Key elements of cardiovascular risk management are smoking cessation and treatment of hyperlipidaemia with dietary modification or statins. Moreover, arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus should be adequately treated. In CLI patients not suitable for arterial revascularisation or subsequent to unsuccessful revascularisation, parenteral prostanoids may be considered. CLI patients undergoing surgical revascularisation should be treated with beta blockers. At present, neither gene nor stem-cell therapy can be recommended outside clinical trials. Of note, walking exercise is contraindicated in CLI patients due to the risk of worsening pre-existing or causing new ischaemic wounds. CLI patients are oftentimes medically frail and exhibit significant comorbidities. Co-existing coronary heart and carotid as well as renal artery disease should be managed according to current guidelines. Considering the above-mentioned treatment goals, interdisciplinary treatment approaches for CLI patients are warranted. Aim of the present manuscript is to discuss currently existing evidence for both the management of cardiovascular risk factors and treatment of co-existing disease and to deduct specific treatment recommendations.