Uncertainties in the modal estimation from output-only data in civil structures

Cualquier estructura vibra según unas frecuencias propias definidas por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, amortiguamientos y formas modales). A través de las mediciones de la vibración en puntos clave de la estructura, los parámetros modales pueden ser estimados. En estructuras civiles, es difícil excitar una estructura de manera controlada, por lo tanto, las técnicas que implican la estimación de los parámetros modales sólo registrando su respuesta son de vital importancia para este tipo de estructuras. Esta técnica se conoce como Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). La técnica del OMA no necesita excitar artificialmente la estructura, atendiendo únicamente a su comportamiento en servicio. La motivación para llevar a cabo pruebas de OMA surge en el campo de la Ingeniería Civil, debido a que excitar artificialmente con éxito grandes estructuras no sólo resulta difícil y costoso, sino que puede incluso dañarse la estructura. Su importancia reside en que el comportamiento global de una estructura está directamente relacionado con sus parámetros modales, y cualquier variación de rigidez, masa o condiciones de apoyo, aunque sean locales, quedan reflejadas en los parámetros modales. Por lo tanto, esta identificación puede integrarse en un sistema de vigilancia de la integridad estructural. La principal dificultad para el uso de los parámetros modales estimados mediante OMA son las incertidumbres asociadas a este proceso de estimación. Existen incertidumbres en el valor de los parámetros modales asociadas al proceso de cálculo (internos) y también asociadas a la influencia de los factores ambientales (externas), como es la temperatura. Este Trabajo Fin de Máster analiza estas dos fuentes de incertidumbre. Es decir, en primer lugar, para una estructura de laboratorio, se estudian y cuantifican las incertidumbres asociadas al programa de OMA utilizado. En segundo lugar, para una estructura en servicio (una pasarela de banda tesa), se estudian tanto el efecto del programa OMA como la influencia del factor ambiental en la estimación de los parámetros modales. Más concretamente, se ha propuesto un método para hacer un seguimiento de las frecuencias naturales de un mismo modo. Este método incluye un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple que permite eliminar la influencia de estos agentes externos. A structure vibrates according to some of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). Through the measurements of the vibration at key points of the structure, the modal parameters can be estimated. In civil engineering structures, it is difficult to excite structures in a controlled manner, thus, techniques involving output-only modal estimation are of vital importance for these structure. This techniques are known as Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). The OMA technique does not need to excite artificially the structure, this considers its behavior in service only. The motivation for carrying out OMA tests arises in the area of Civil Engineering, because successfully artificially excite large structures is difficult and expensive. It also may even damage the structure. The main goal is that the global behavior of a structure is directly related to their modal parameters, and any variation of stiffness, mass or support conditions, although it is local, is also reflected in the modal parameters. Therefore, this identification may be within a Structural Health Monitoring system. The main difficulty for using the modal parameters estimated by an OMA is the uncertainties associated to this estimation process. Thus, there are uncertainties in the value of the modal parameters associated to the computing process (internal) and the influence of environmental factors (external), such as the temperature. This Master’s Thesis analyzes these two sources of uncertainties. That is, firstly, for a lab structure, the uncertainties associated to the OMA program used are studied and quantified. Secondly, for an in-service structure (a stress-ribbon footbridge), both the effect of the OMA program and the influence of environmental factor on the modal parameters estimation are studied. More concretely, a method to track natural frequencies of the same mode has been proposed. This method includes a multiple linear regression model that allows to remove the influence of these external agents.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Multimodal integration of functional and structural brain connectivity. An application to the characterization of Mild Cognitive Impairment

La investigación para el conocimiento del cerebro es una ciencia joven, su inicio se remonta a Santiago Ramón y Cajal en 1888. Desde esta fecha a nuestro tiempo la neurociencia ha avanzado mucho en el desarrollo de técnicas que permiten su estudio. Desde la neurociencia cognitiva hoy se explican muchos modelos que nos permiten acercar a nuestro entendimiento a capacidades cognitivas complejas. Aun así hablamos de una ciencia casi en pañales que tiene un lago recorrido por delante. Una de las claves del éxito en los estudios de la función cerebral ha sido convertirse en una disciplina que combina conocimientos de diversas áreas: de la física, de las matemáticas, de la estadística y de la psicología. Esta es la razón por la que a lo largo de este trabajo se entremezclan conceptos de diferentes campos con el objetivo de avanzar en el conocimiento de un tema tan complejo como el que nos ocupa: el entendimiento de la mente humana. Concretamente, esta tesis ha estado dirigida a la integración multimodal de la magnetoencefalografía (MEG) y la resonancia magnética ponderada en difusión (dMRI). Estas técnicas son sensibles, respectivamente, a los campos magnéticos emitidos por las corrientes neuronales, y a la microestructura de la materia blanca cerebral. A lo largo de este trabajo hemos visto que la combinación de estas técnicas permiten descubrir sinergias estructurofuncionales en el procesamiento de la información en el cerebro sano y en el curso de patologías neurológicas. Más específicamente en este trabajo se ha estudiado la relación entre la conectividad funcional y estructural y en cómo fusionarlas. Para ello, se ha cuantificado la conectividad funcional mediante el estudio de la sincronización de fase o la correlación de amplitudes entre series temporales, de esta forma se ha conseguido un índice que mide la similitud entre grupos neuronales o regiones cerebrales. Adicionalmente, la cuantificación de la conectividad estructural a partir de imágenes de resonancia magnética ponderadas en difusión, ha permitido hallar índices de la integridad de materia blanca o de la fuerza de las conexiones estructurales entre regiones. Estas medidas fueron combinadas en los capítulos 3, 4 y 5 de este trabajo siguiendo tres aproximaciones que iban desde el nivel más bajo al más alto de integración. Finalmente se utilizó la información fusionada de MEG y dMRI para la caracterización de grupos de sujetos con deterioro cognitivo leve, la detección de esta patología resulta relevante en la identificación precoz de la enfermedad de Alzheimer. Esta tesis está dividida en seis capítulos. En el capítulos 1 se establece un contexto para la introducción de la connectómica dentro de los campos de la neuroimagen y la neurociencia. Posteriormente en este capítulo se describen los objetivos de la tesis, y los objetivos específicos de cada una de las publicaciones científicas que resultaron de este trabajo. En el capítulo 2 se describen los métodos para cada técnica que fue empleada: conectividad estructural, conectividad funcional en resting state, redes cerebrales complejas y teoría de grafos y finalmente se describe la condición de deterioro cognitivo leve y el estado actual en la búsqueda de nuevos biomarcadores diagnósticos. En los capítulos 3, 4 y 5 se han incluido los artículos científicos que fueron producidos a lo largo de esta tesis. Estos han sido incluidos en el formato de la revista en que fueron publicados, estando divididos en introducción, materiales y métodos, resultados y discusión. Todos los métodos que fueron empleados en los artículos están descritos en el capítulo 2 de la tesis. Finalmente, en el capítulo 6 se concluyen los resultados generales de la tesis y se discuten de forma específica los resultados de cada artículo. ABSTRACT In this thesis I apply concepts from mathematics, physics and statistics to the neurosciences. This field benefits from the collaborative work of multidisciplinary teams where physicians, psychologists, engineers and other specialists fight for a common well: the understanding of the brain. Research on this field is still in its early years, being its birth attributed to the neuronal theory of Santiago Ramo´n y Cajal in 1888. In more than one hundred years only a very little percentage of the brain functioning has been discovered, and still much more needs to be explored. Isolated techniques aim at unraveling the system that supports our cognition, nevertheless in order to provide solid evidence in such a field multimodal techniques have arisen, with them we will be able to improve current knowledge about human cognition. Here we focus on the multimodal integration of magnetoencephalography (MEG) and diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging. These techniques are sensitive to the magnetic fields emitted by the neuronal currents and to the white matter microstructure, respectively. The combination of such techniques could bring up evidences about structural-functional synergies in the brain information processing and which part of this synergy fails in specific neurological pathologies. In particular, we are interested in the relationship between functional and structural connectivity, and how two integrate this information. We quantify the functional connectivity by studying the phase synchronization or the amplitude correlation between time series obtained by MEG, and so we get an index indicating similarity between neuronal entities, i.e. brain regions. In addition we quantify structural connectivity by performing diffusion tensor estimation from the diffusion weighted images, thus obtaining an indicator of the integrity of the white matter or, if preferred, the strength of the structural connections between regions. These quantifications are then combined following three different approaches, from the lowest to the highest level of integration, in chapters 3, 4 and 5. We finally apply the fused information to the characterization or prediction of mild cognitive impairment, a clinical entity which is considered as an early step in the continuum pathological process of dementia. The dissertation is divided in six chapters. In chapter 1 I introduce connectomics within the fields of neuroimaging and neuroscience. Later in this chapter we describe the objectives of this thesis, and the specific objectives of each of the scientific publications that were produced as result of this work. In chapter 2 I describe the methods for each of the techniques that were employed, namely structural connectivity, resting state functional connectivity, complex brain networks and graph theory, and finally, I describe the clinical condition of mild cognitive impairment and the current state of the art in the search for early biomarkers. In chapters 3, 4 and 5 I have included the scientific publications that were generated along this work. They have been included in in their original format and they contain introduction, materials and methods, results and discussion. All methods that were employed in these papers have been described in chapter 2. Finally, in chapter 6 I summarize all the results from this thesis, both locally for each of the scientific publications and globally for the whole work.

Using damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for vulnerability estimation of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti).

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.

Application of PZT and FBG impedance sensors for structural health monitoring of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with FRP composite materials

Esta Tesis tiene como objetivo principal el desarrollo de métodos de identificación del daño que sean robustos y fiables, enfocados a sistemas estructurales experimentales, fundamentalmente a las estructuras de hormigón armado reforzadas externamente con bandas fibras de polímeros reforzados (FRP). El modo de fallo de este tipo de sistema estructural es crítico, pues generalmente es debido a un despegue repentino y frágil de la banda del refuerzo FRP originado en grietas intermedias causadas por la flexión. La detección de este despegue en su fase inicial es fundamental para prevenir fallos futuros, que pueden ser catastróficos. Inicialmente, se lleva a cabo una revisión del método de la Impedancia Electro-Mecánica (EMI), de cara a exponer sus capacidades para la detección de daño. Una vez la tecnología apropiada es seleccionada, lo que incluye un analizador de impedancias así como novedosos sensores PZT para monitorización inteligente, se ha diseñado un procedimiento automático basado en los registros de impedancias de distintas estructuras de laboratorio. Basándonos en el hecho de que las mediciones de impedancias son posibles gracias a una colocación adecuada de una red de sensores PZT, la estimación de la presencia de daño se realiza analizando los resultados de distintos indicadores de daño obtenidos de la literatura. Para que este proceso sea automático y que no sean necesarios conocimientos previos sobre el método EMI para realizar un experimento, se ha diseñado e implementado un Interfaz Gráfico de Usuario, transformando la medición de impedancias en un proceso fácil e intuitivo. Se evalúa entonces el daño a través de los correspondientes índices de daño, intentando estimar no sólo su severidad, sino también su localización aproximada. El desarrollo de estos experimentos en cualquier estructura genera grandes cantidades de datos que han de ser procesados, y algunas veces los índices de daño no son suficientes para una evaluación completa de la integridad de una estructura. En la mayoría de los casos se pueden encontrar patrones de daño en los datos, pero no se tiene información a priori del estado de la estructura. En este punto, se ha hecho una importante investigación en técnicas de reconocimiento de patrones particularmente en aprendizaje no supervisado, encontrando aplicaciones interesantes en el campo de la medicina. De ahí surge una idea creativa e innovadora: detectar y seguir la evolución del daño en distintas estructuras como si se tratase de un cáncer propagándose por el cuerpo humano. En ese sentido, las lecturas de impedancias se emplean como información intrínseca de la salud de la propia estructura, de forma que se pueden aplicar las mismas técnicas que las empleadas en la investigación del cáncer. En este caso, se ha aplicado un algoritmo de clasificación jerárquica dado que ilustra además la clasificación de los datos de forma gráfica, incluyendo información cualitativa y cuantitativa sobre el daño. Se ha investigado la efectividad de este procedimiento a través de tres estructuras de laboratorio, como son una viga de aluminio, una unión atornillada de aluminio y un bloque de hormigón reforzado con FRP. La primera ayuda a mostrar la efectividad del método en sencillos escenarios de daño simple y múltiple, de forma que las conclusiones extraídas se aplican sobre los otros dos, diseñados para simular condiciones de despegue en distintas estructuras. Demostrada la efectividad del método de clasificación jerárquica de lecturas de impedancias, se aplica el procedimiento sobre las estructuras de hormigón armado reforzadas con bandas de FRP objeto de esta tesis, detectando y clasificando cada estado de daño. Finalmente, y como alternativa al anterior procedimiento, se propone un método para la monitorización continua de la interfase FRP-Hormigón, a través de una red de sensores FBG permanentemente instalados en dicha interfase. De esta forma, se obtienen medidas de deformación de la interfase en condiciones de carga continua, para ser implementadas en un modelo de optimización multiobjetivo, cuya solución se haya por medio de una expansión multiobjetivo del método Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). La fiabilidad de este último método de detección se investiga a través de sendos ejemplos tanto numéricos como experimentales. ABSTRACT This thesis aims to develop robust and reliable damage identification methods focused on experimental structural systems, in particular Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures externally strengthened with Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRP) strips. The failure mode of this type of structural system is critical, since it is usually due to sudden and brittle debonding of the FRP reinforcement originating from intermediate flexural cracks. Detection of the debonding in its initial stage is essential thus to prevent future failure, which might be catastrophic. Initially, a revision of the Electro-Mechanical Impedance (EMI) method is carried out, in order to expose its capabilities for local damage detection. Once the appropriate technology is selected, which includes impedance analyzer as well as novel PZT sensors for smart monitoring, an automated procedure has been design based on the impedance signatures of several lab-scale structures. On the basis that capturing impedance measurements is possible thanks to an adequately deployed PZT sensor network, the estimation of damage presence is done by analyzing the results of different damage indices obtained from the literature. In order to make this process automatic so that it is not necessary a priori knowledge of the EMI method to carry out an experimental test, a Graphical User Interface has been designed, turning the impedance measurements into an easy and intuitive procedure. Damage is then assessed through the analysis of the corresponding damage indices, trying to estimate not only the damage severity, but also its approximate location. The development of these tests on any kind of structure generates large amounts of data to be processed, and sometimes the information provided by damage indices is not enough to achieve a complete analysis of the structural health condition. In most of the cases, some damage patterns can be found in the data, but none a priori knowledge of the health condition is given for any structure. At this point, an important research on pattern recognition techniques has been carried out, particularly on unsupervised learning techniques, finding interesting applications in the medicine field. From this investigation, a creative and innovative idea arose: to detect and track the evolution of damage in different structures, as if it were a cancer propagating through a human body. In that sense, the impedance signatures are used to give intrinsic information of the health condition of the structure, so that the same clustering algorithms applied in the cancer research can be applied to the problem addressed in this dissertation. Hierarchical clustering is then applied since it also provides a graphical display of the clustered data, including quantitative and qualitative information about damage. The performance of this approach is firstly investigated using three lab-scale structures, such as a simple aluminium beam, a bolt-jointed aluminium beam and an FRP-strengthened concrete specimen. The first one shows the performance of the method on simple single and multiple damage scenarios, so that the first conclusions can be extracted and applied to the other two experimental tests, which are designed to simulate a debonding condition on different structures. Once the performance of the impedance-based hierarchical clustering method is proven to be successful, it is then applied to the structural system studied in this dissertation, the RC structures externally strengthened with FRP strips, where the debonding failure in the interface between the FRP and the concrete is successfully detected and classified, proving thus the feasibility of this method. Finally, as an alternative to the previous approach, a continuous monitoring procedure of the FRP-Concrete interface is proposed, based on an FBGsensors Network permanently deployed within that interface. In this way, strain measurements can be obtained under controlled loading conditions, and then they are used in order to implement a multi-objective model updating method solved by a multi-objective expansion of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. The feasibility of this last proposal is investigated and successfully proven on both numerical and experimental RC beams strengthened with FRP.

Structural health monitoringby using transmissibility

El control del estado en el que se encuentran las estructuras ha experimentado un gran auge desde hace varias décadas, debido a que los costes de rehabilitación de estructuras tales como los oleoductos, los puentes, los edificios y otras más son muy elevados. En las últimas dos décadas, se han desarrollado una gran cantidad de métodos que permiten identificar el estado real de una estructura, basándose en modelos físicos y datos de ensayos. El ensayo modal es el más común; mediante el análisis modal experimental de una estructura se pueden determinar parámetros como la frecuencia, los modos de vibración y la amortiguación y también la función de respuesta en frecuencia de la estructura. Mediante estos parámetros se pueden implementar diferentes indicadores de daño. Sin embargo, para estructuras complejas y grandes, la implementación de metodologías basadas en la función de respuesta en frecuencia requeriría realizar hipótesis sobre la fuerza utilizada para excitar la estructura. Dado que el análisis modal operacional utiliza solamente las señales de respuesta del sistema para extraer los parámetros dinámicos estructurales y, por tanto, para evaluar el estado de una estructura, el uso de la transmisibilidad sería posible. En este sentido, dentro del análisis modal operacional, la transmisibilidad ha concentrado mucha atención en el mundo científico en la última década. Aunque se han publicado muchos trabajos sobre el tema, en esta Tesis se proponen diferentes técnicas para evaluar el estado de una estructura basándose exclusivamente en la transmisibilidad. En primer lugar, se propone un indicador de daño basado en un nuevo parámetro, la coherencia de transmisibilidad; El indicador se ha valido mediante resultados numéricos y experimentales obtenidos sobre un pórtico de tres pisos. En segundo lugar, la distancia de Mahalanobis se aplica sobre la transmisibilidad como procedimiento para detectar variaciones estructurales provocadas por el daño. Este método se ha validado con éxito sobre una viga libre-libre ensayada experimentalmente. En tercer lugar, se ha implementado una red neuronal basada en medidas de transmisibilidad como metodología de predicción de daño sobre una viga simulada numéricamente. ABSTRACT Structural health monitoring has experienced a huge development from several decades ago since the cost of rehabilitation of structures such as oil pipes, bridges and tall buildings is very high. In the last two decades, a lot of methods able to identify the real stage of a structure have been developed basing on both models and experimental data. Modal testing is the most common; by carrying out the experimental modal analysis of a structure, some parameters, such as frequency, mode shapes and damping, as well as the frequency response function of the structure can be obtained. From these parameters, different damage indicators have been proposed. However, for complex and large structures, any frequency domain approach that relies on frequency response function estimation would be of difficult application since an assumption of the input excitations to the system should be carried out. Operational modal analysis uses only output signals to extract the structural dynamic parameters and, therefore, to identify the structural stage. In this sense, within operational modal analysis, transmissibility has attracted a lot of attention in the scientific field in the last decade. In this work new damage detection approaches based on transmissibility are developed. Firstly, a new theory of transmissibility coherence is developed and it is tested with a three-floor-structure both in simulation and in experimental data analysis; secondly, Mahalanobis distance is taken into use with the transmissibility, and a free-free beam is used to test the approach performance; thirdly, neural networks are used in transmissibility for structural health monitoring; a simulated beam is used to validate the proposed method.

Structural health monitoringby using transmissibility

El control del estado en el que se encuentran las estructuras ha experimentado un gran auge desde hace varias décadas, debido a que los costes de rehabilitación de estructuras tales como los oleoductos, los puentes, los edificios y otras más son muy elevados. En las últimas dos décadas, se han desarrollado una gran cantidad de métodos que permiten identificar el estado real de una estructura, basándose en modelos físicos y datos de ensayos. El ensayo modal es el más común; mediante el análisis modal experimental de una estructura se pueden determinar parámetros como la frecuencia, los modos de vibración y la amortiguación y también la función de respuesta en frecuencia de la estructura. Mediante estos parámetros se pueden implementar diferentes indicadores de daño. Sin embargo, para estructuras complejas y grandes, la implementación de metodologías basadas en la función de respuesta en frecuencia requeriría realizar hipótesis sobre la fuerza utilizada para excitar la estructura. Dado que el análisis modal operacional utiliza solamente las señales de respuesta del sistema para extraer los parámetros dinámicos estructurales y, por tanto, para evaluar el estado de una estructura, el uso de la transmisibilidad sería posible. En este sentido, dentro del análisis modal operacional, la transmisibilidad ha concentrado mucha atención en el mundo científico en la última década. Aunque se han publicado muchos trabajos sobre el tema, en esta Tesis se proponen diferentes técnicas para evaluar el estado de una estructura basándose exclusivamente en la transmisibilidad. En primer lugar, se propone un indicador de daño basado en un nuevo parámetro, la coherencia de transmisibilidad; El indicador se ha valido mediante resultados numéricos y experimentales obtenidos sobre un pórtico de tres pisos. En segundo lugar, la distancia de Mahalanobis se aplica sobre la transmisibilidad como procedimiento para detectar variaciones estructurales provocadas por el daño. Este método se ha validado con éxito sobre una viga libre-libre ensayada experimentalmente. En tercer lugar, se ha implementado una red neuronal basada en medidas de transmisibilidad como metodología de predicción de daño sobre una viga simulada numéricamente. ABSTRACT Structural health monitoring has experienced a huge development from several decades ago since the cost of rehabilitation of structures such as oil pipes, bridges and tall buildings is very high. In the last two decades, a lot of methods able to identify the real stage of a structure have been developed basing on both models and experimental data. Modal testing is the most common; by carrying out the experimental modal analysis of a structure, some parameters, such as frequency, mode shapes and damping, as well as the frequency response function of the structure can be obtained. From these parameters, different damage indicators have been proposed. However, for complex and large structures, any frequency domain approach that relies on frequency response function estimation would be of difficult application since an assumption of the input excitations to the system should be carried out. Operational modal analysis uses only output signals to extract the structural dynamic parameters and, therefore, to identify the structural stage. In this sense, within operational modal analysis, transmissibility has attracted a lot of attention in the scientific field in the last decade. In this work new damage detection approaches based on transmissibility are developed. Firstly, a new theory of transmissibility coherence is developed and it is tested with a three-floor-structure both in simulation and in experimental data analysis; secondly, Mahalanobis distance is taken into use with the transmissibility, and a free-free beam is used to test the approach performance; thirdly, neural networks are used in transmissibility for structural health monitoring; a simulated beam is used to validate the proposed method.

Structural efficiency variation with the problem size in some bending problems = Variación del rendimiento estructural con el tamaño del problema en algunos casos de flexión simple

Existe normalmente el propósito de obtener la mejor solución posible cuando se plantea un problema estructural, entendiendo como mejor la solución que cumpliendo los requisitos estructurales, de uso, etc., tiene un coste físico menor. En una primera aproximación se puede representar el coste físico por medio del peso propio de la estructura, lo que permite plantear la búsqueda de la mejor solución como la de menor peso. Desde un punto de vista práctico, la obtención de buenas soluciones—es decir, soluciones cuyo coste sea solo ligeramente mayor que el de la mejor solución— es una tarea tan importante como la obtención de óptimos absolutos, algo en general difícilmente abordable. Para disponer de una medida de la eficiencia que haga posible la comparación entre soluciones se propone la siguiente definición de rendimiento estructural: la razón entre la carga útil que hay que soportar y la carga total que hay que contabilizar (la suma de la carga útil y el peso propio). La forma estructural puede considerarse compuesta por cuatro conceptos, que junto con el material, definen una estructura: tamaño, esquema, proporción, y grueso.Galileo (1638) propuso la existencia de un tamaño insuperable para cada problema estructural— el tamaño para el que el peso propio agota una estructura para un esquema y proporción dados—. Dicho tamaño, o alcance estructural, será distinto para cada material utilizado; la única información necesaria del material para su determinación es la razón entre su resistencia y su peso especifico, una magnitud a la que denominamos alcance del material. En estructuras de tamaño muy pequeño en relación con su alcance estructural la anterior definición de rendimiento es inútil. En este caso —estructuras de “talla nula” en las que el peso propio es despreciable frente a la carga útil— se propone como medida del coste la magnitud adimensional que denominamos número de Michell, que se deriva de la “cantidad” introducida por A. G. M. Michell en su artículo seminal de 1904, desarrollado a partir de un lema de J. C. Maxwell de 1870. A finales del siglo pasado, R. Aroca combino las teorías de Galileo y de Maxwell y Michell, proponiendo una regla de diseño de fácil aplicación (regla GA), que permite la estimación del alcance y del rendimiento de una forma estructural. En el presente trabajo se estudia la eficiencia de estructuras trianguladas en problemas estructurales de flexión, teniendo en cuenta la influencia del tamaño. Por un lado, en el caso de estructuras de tamaño nulo se exploran esquemas cercanos al optimo mediante diversos métodos de minoración, con el objetivo de obtener formas cuyo coste (medido con su numero deMichell) sea muy próximo al del optimo absoluto pero obteniendo una reducción importante de su complejidad. Por otro lado, se presenta un método para determinar el alcance estructural de estructuras trianguladas (teniendo en cuenta el efecto local de las flexiones en los elementos de dichas estructuras), comparando su resultado con el obtenido al aplicar la regla GA, mostrando las condiciones en las que es de aplicación. Por último se identifican las líneas de investigación futura: la medida de la complejidad; la contabilidad del coste de las cimentaciones y la extensión de los métodos de minoración cuando se tiene en cuenta el peso propio. ABSTRACT When a structural problem is posed, the intention is usually to obtain the best solution, understanding this as the solution that fulfilling the different requirements: structural, use, etc., has the lowest physical cost. In a first approximation, the physical cost can be represented by the self-weight of the structure; this allows to consider the search of the best solution as the one with the lowest self-weight. But, from a practical point of view, obtaining good solutions—i.e. solutions with higher although comparable physical cost than the optimum— can be as important as finding the optimal ones, because this is, generally, a not affordable task. In order to have a measure of the efficiency that allows the comparison between different solutions, a definition of structural efficiency is proposed: the ratio between the useful load and the total load —i.e. the useful load plus the self-weight resulting of the structural sizing—. The structural form can be considered to be formed by four concepts, which together with its material, completely define a particular structure. These are: Size, Schema, Slenderness or Proportion, and Thickness. Galileo (1638) postulated the existence of an insurmountable size for structural problems—the size for which a structure with a given schema and a given slenderness, is only able to resist its self-weight—. Such size, or structural scope will be different for every different used material; the only needed information about the material to determine such size is the ratio between its allowable stress and its specific weight: a characteristic length that we name material structural scope. The definition of efficiency given above is not useful for structures that have a small size in comparison with the insurmountable size. In this case—structures with null size, inwhich the self-weight is negligible in comparisonwith the useful load—we use as measure of the cost the dimensionless magnitude that we call Michell’s number, an amount derived from the “quantity” introduced by A. G. M. Michell in his seminal article published in 1904, developed out of a result from J. C.Maxwell of 1870. R. Aroca joined the theories of Galileo and the theories of Maxwell and Michell, obtaining some design rules of direct application (that we denominate “GA rule”), that allow the estimation of the structural scope and the efficiency of a structural schema. In this work the efficiency of truss-like structures resolving bending problems is studied, taking into consideration the influence of the size. On the one hand, in the case of structures with null size, near-optimal layouts are explored using several minimization methods, in order to obtain forms with cost near to the absolute optimum but with a significant reduction of the complexity. On the other hand, a method for the determination of the insurmountable size for truss-like structures is shown, having into account local bending effects. The results are checked with the GA rule, showing the conditions in which it is applicable. Finally, some directions for future research are proposed: the measure of the complexity, the cost of foundations and the extension of optimization methods having into account the self-weight.

A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

Integration of modular process simulators under the Generalized Disjunctive Programming framework for the structural flowsheet optimization

The optimization of chemical processes where the flowsheet topology is not kept fixed is a challenging discrete-continuous optimization problem. Usually, this task has been performed through equation based models. This approach presents several problems, as tedious and complicated component properties estimation or the handling of huge problems (with thousands of equations and variables). We propose a GDP approach as an alternative to the MINLP models coupled with a flowsheet program. The novelty of this approach relies on using a commercial modular process simulator where the superstructure is drawn directly on the graphical use interface of the simulator. This methodology takes advantage of modular process simulators (specially tailored numerical methods, reliability, and robustness) and the flexibility of the GDP formulation for the modeling and solution. The optimization tool proposed is successfully applied to the synthesis of a methanol plant where different alternatives are available for the streams, equipment and process conditions.

A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk

This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.

(Table 1) Some structural characteristics of communities and detritus flux through the lower boundary of a given water column in different regions of the Kara Sea

Vertical fluxes of autochtonous detritus at different levels were estimated using the algorithm of structure-function analysis. The calculations are based on pelagic ecosystem parameters in the Kara Sea observed in September 1993 (temperature, primary production, biomass of phytoplankton, bacteria, protozoa, and zooplankton, trophic and size composition, etc.). At eight stations in different parts of the sea where sedimentation traps were set, the range of calculated fluxes of autochtonous detritus through the lower boundary of the water column was 13-90 mgC/m**2/day. The flux was much higher in the estuary of the Yenisey River (55-90 mgC/m**2/day) than in the northeastern regions (I8-50 mgC/m**2/day) and, especially, in the relatively deep southwestern part of the sea (13-35 mgC/m**2/day). The calculated fluxes of autochtonous detritus in shallow water regions (where conditions are variable and poorly known hydrologically and where outflow of allochtonous detritus is substantial) cannot be compared to data from sedimentation traps.

Rice morphogenesis and plant architecture: Measurement, specification and the reconstruction of structural development by 3D architectural modelling

Background and Aims The morphogenesis and architecture of a rice plant, Oryza sativa, are critical factors in the yield equation, but they are not well studied because of the lack of appropriate tools for 3D measurement. The architecture of rice plants is characterized by a large number of tillers and leaves. The aims of this study were to specify rice plant architecture and to find appropriate functions to represent the 3D growth across all growth stages. Methods A japonica type rice, 'Namaga', was grown in pots under outdoor conditions. A 3D digitizer was used to measure the rice plant structure at intervals from the young seedling stage to maturity. The L-system formalism was applied to create '3D virtual rice' plants, incorporating models of phenological development and leaf emergence period as a function of temperature and photoperiod, which were used to determine the timing of tiller emergence. Key Results The relationships between the nodal positions and leaf lengths, leaf angles and tiller angles were analysed and used to determine growth functions for the models. The '3D virtual rice' reproduces the structural development of isolated plants and provides a good estimation of the fillering process, and of the accumulation of leaves. Conclusions The results indicated that the '3D virtual rice' has a possibility to demonstrate the differences in the structure and development between cultivars and under different environmental conditions. Future work, necessary to reflect both cultivar and environmental effects on the model performance, and to link with physiological models, is proposed in the discussion.

Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Enhanced detection-guided NLMS estimation of sparse FIR-modeled signal channels

In various signal-channel-estimation problems, the channel being estimated may be well approximated by a discrete finite impulse response (FIR) model with sparsely separated active or nonzero taps. A common approach to estimating such channels involves a discrete normalized least-mean-square (NLMS) adaptive FIR filter, every tap of which is adapted at each sample interval. Such an approach suffers from slow convergence rates and poor tracking when the required FIR filter is "long." Recently, NLMS-based algorithms have been proposed that employ least-squares-based structural detection techniques to exploit possible sparse channel structure and subsequently provide improved estimation performance. However, these algorithms perform poorly when there is a large dynamic range amongst the active taps. In this paper, we propose two modifications to the previous algorithms, which essentially remove this limitation. The modifications also significantly improve the applicability of the detection technique to structurally time varying channels. Importantly, for sparse channels, the computational cost of the newly proposed detection-guided NLMS estimator is only marginally greater than that of the standard NLMS estimator. Simulations demonstrate the favourable performance of the newly proposed algorithm. © 2006 IEEE.