Cultural Dynamics and Ceramic Resource Use at Late Bronze Age/Early Iron Age Troy, Northwestern Turkey

Changes in resource use over time can provide insight into technological choice and the extent of long-term stability in cultural practices. In this paper we re-evaluate the evidence for a marked demographic shift at the inception of the Early Iron Age at Troy by applying a robust macroscale analysis of changing ceramic resource use over the Late Bronze and Iron Age. We use a combination of new and legacy analytical datasets (NAA and XRF), from excavated ceramics, to evaluate the potential compositional range of local resources (based on comparisons with sediments from within a 10 km site radius). Results show a clear distinction between sediment-defined local and non-local ceramic compositional groups. Two discrete local ceramic resources have been previously identified and we confirm a third local resource for a major class of EIA handmade wares and cooking pots. This third source appears to derive from a residual resource on the Troy peninsula (rather than adjacent alluvial valleys). The presence of a group of large and heavy pithoi among the non-local groups raises questions about their regional or maritime origin. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study: initial description of the completed database

BACKGROUND: Detecting a benefit from closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with cryptogenic stroke is hampered by low rates of stroke recurrence and uncertainty about the causal role of patent foramen ovale in the index event. A method to predict patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk is needed. However, individual databases generally have too few stroke recurrences to support risk modeling. Prior studies of this population have been limited by low statistical power for examining factors related to recurrence. AIMS: The aim of this study was to develop a database to support modeling of patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk by combining extant data sets. METHODS: We identified investigators with extant databases including subjects with cryptogenic stroke investigated for patent foramen ovale, determined the availability and characteristics of data in each database, collaboratively specified the variables to be included in the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database, harmonized the variables across databases, and collected new primary data when necessary and feasible. RESULTS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database has individual clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic data from 12 component databases, including subjects with cryptogenic stroke both with (n = 1925) and without (n = 1749) patent foramen ovale. In the patent foramen ovale subjects, a total of 381 outcomes (stroke, transient ischemic attack, death) occurred (median follow-up 2·2 years). While there were substantial variations in data collection between studies, there was sufficient overlap to define a common set of variables suitable for risk modeling. CONCLUSION: While individual studies are inadequate for modeling patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk, collaboration between investigators has yielded a database with sufficient power to identify those patients at highest risk for a patent foramen ovale-related stroke recurrence who may have the greatest potential benefit from patent foramen ovale closure.

Antimicrobial therapy using a local drug delivery system (Arestin) in the treatment of peri-implantitis. I: Microbiological outcomes

OBJECTIVES: To assess the microbiological outcome of local administration of minocycline hydrochloride microspheres 1 mg (Arestin) in cases with peri-implantitis and with a follow-up period of 12 months. MATERIAL AND METHODS: After debridement, and local administration of chlorhexidine gel, peri-implantitis cases were treated with local administration of minocycline microspheres (Arestin). The DNA-DNA checkerboard hybridization method was used to detect bacterial presence during the first 360 days of therapy. RESULTS: At Day 10, lower bacterial loads for 6/40 individual bacteria including Actinomyces gerensceriae (P<0.1), Actinomyces israelii (P<0.01), Actinomyces naeslundi type 1 (P<0.01) and type 2 (P<0.03), Actinomyces odontolyticus (P<0.01), Porphyromonas gingivalis (P<0.01) and Treponema socranskii (P<0.01) were found. At Day 360 only the levels of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans were lower than at baseline (mean difference: 1x10(5); SE difference: 0.34x10(5), 95% CI: 0.2x10(5) to 1.2x10(5); P<0.03). Six implants were lost between Days 90 and 270. The microbiota was successfully controlled in 48%, and with definitive failures (implant loss and major increase in bacterial levels) in 32% of subjects. CONCLUSIONS: At study endpoint, the impact of Arestin on A. actinomycetemcomitans was greater than the impact on other pathogens. Up to Day 180 reductions in levels of Tannerella forsythia, P. gingivalis, and Treponema denticola were also found. Failures in treatment could not be associated with the presence of specific pathogens or by the total bacterial load at baseline. Statistical power analysis suggested that a case control study would require approximately 200 subjects.

Genetic polymorphisms of manganese-superoxide dismutase and glutathione-S-transferase in chronic alcoholic pancreatitis

Chronic alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the development of chronic pancreatitis. However, chronic pancreatitis occurs only in a minority of heavy drinkers. This variability may be due to yet unidentified genetic factors. Several enzymes involved in the degradation of reactive oxidants and xenobiotics, such as glutathione-S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) and manganese-superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) reveal functional polymorphisms that affect the antioxidative capacity and may therefore modulate the development of chronic pancreatitis and long-term complications like endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. Two functional polymorphisms of the MnSOD and the GSTP1 gene were assessed by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism in 165 patients with chronic alcoholic pancreatitis, 140 alcoholics without evidence of pancreatic disease and 160 healthy control subjects. The distribution of GSTP1 and MnSOD genotypes were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the total cohort. Genotype and allele frequencies for both genes were not statistically different between the three groups. Although genotype MnSOD Ala/Val was seemingly associated with the presence of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, this subgroup was too small and the association statistically underpowered. None of the tested genotypes affected the development of endocrine pancreatic insufficiency. Polymorphisms of MnSOD and GSTP1 are not associated with chronic alcoholic pancreatitis. The present data emphasize the need for stringently designed candidate gene association studies with well-characterized cases and controls and sufficient statistical power to exclude chance observations.

Genomics of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis

Hepatic fibrosis is the response to chronic injury from viral, toxic, metabolic, cholestatic, or autoimmune liver injury. However, only a minority of affected individuals develop advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, suggesting that modifiers determine the individual risk. Aside from well-established progression factors including gender, duration of exposure to the disease, and ethnicity, unknown host genetic factors are likely to influence disease progression and prognosis. Potential genetic susceptibility loci are single nucleotide polymorphisms in fibrosis-associated genes, point mutations, microsatellites, and haplotype blocks composed of genes pivotal for fibrosis development. However, the study of complex polygenetic diseases poses numerous pitfalls in contrast to the elucidation of monogenetic (i.e., Mendelian) diseases. Many publications on the role of certain genetic variants in modulating the progression of hepatic fibrosis have been limited by inadequate study design and low statistical power. At present, powerful research strategies are being developed that allow the application of knowledge derived from the successful sequencing of the human genome that will help to translate our newly acquired insight into practical improvements for research activities and medical practice.

BOLD correlates of continuously fluctuating epileptic activity isolated by independent component analysis

Combined EEG/fMRI recordings offer a promising opportunity to detect brain areas with altered BOLD signal during interictal epileptic discharges (IEDs). These areas are likely to represent the irritative zone, which is itself a reflection of the epileptogenic zone. This paper reports on the imaging findings using independent component analysis (ICA) to continuously quantify epileptiform activity in simultaneously acquired EEG and fMRI. Using ICA derived factors coding for the epileptic activity takes into account that epileptic activity is continuously fluctuating with each spike differing in amplitude, duration and maybe topography, including subthreshold epileptic activity besides clear IEDs and may thus increase the sensitivity and statistical power of combined EEG/fMRI in epilepsy. Twenty patients with different types of focal and generalized epilepsy syndromes were investigated. ICA separated epileptiform activity from normal physiological brain activity and artifacts. In 16/20 patients, BOLD correlates of epileptic activity matched the EEG sources, the clinical semiology, and, if present, the structural lesions. In clinically equivocal cases, the BOLD correlates aided to attribute proper diagnosis of the underlying epilepsy syndrome. Furthermore, in one patient with temporal lobe epilepsy, BOLD correlates of rhythmic delta activity could be employed to delineate the affected hippocampus. Compared to BOLD correlates of manually identified IEDs, the sensitivity was improved from 50% (10/20) to 80%. The ICA EEG/fMRI approach is a safe, non-invasive and easily applicable technique, which can be used to identify regions with altered hemodynamic effects related to IEDs as well as intermittent rhythmic discharges in different types of epilepsy.

Rationale and design of a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study of terutroban 30 mg/day versus aspirin 100 mg/day in stroke patients: the prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events of ischemic origin with terutroban in patients with a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (PERFORM) study

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke is the leading cause of mortality worldwide and a major contributor to neurological disability and dementia. Terutroban is a specific TP receptor antagonist with antithrombotic, antivasoconstrictive, and antiatherosclerotic properties, which may be of interest for the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. This article describes the rationale and design of the Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic Attack (PERFORM) Study, which aims to demonstrate the superiority of the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin in secondary prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: The PERFORM Study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study being carried out in 802 centers in 46 countries. The study population includes patients aged > or =55 years, having suffered an ischemic stroke (< or =3 months) or a transient ischemic attack (< or =8 days). Participants are randomly allocated to terutroban (30 mg/day) or aspirin (100 mg/day). The primary efficacy endpoint is a composite of ischemic stroke (fatal or nonfatal), myocardial infarction (fatal or nonfatal), or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death of any origin). Safety is being evaluated by assessing hemorrhagic events. Follow-up is expected to last for 2-4 years. Assuming a relative risk reduction of 13%, the expected number of primary events is 2,340. To obtain statistical power of 90%, this requires inclusion of at least 18,000 patients in this event-driven trial. The first patient was randomized in February 2006. CONCLUSIONS: The PERFORM Study will explore the benefits and safety of terutroban in secondary cardiovascular prevention after a cerebral ischemic event.

Ragu: a free tool for the analysis of EEG and MEG event-related scalp field data using global randomization statistics

We present a program (Ragu; Randomization Graphical User interface) for statistical analyses of multichannel event-related EEG and MEG experiments. Based on measures of scalp field differences including all sensors, and using powerful, assumption-free randomization statistics, the program yields robust, physiologically meaningful conclusions based on the entire, untransformed, and unbiased set of measurements. Ragu accommodates up to two within-subject factors and one between-subject factor with multiple levels each. Significance is computed as function of time and can be controlled for type II errors with overall analyses. Results are displayed in an intuitive visual interface that allows further exploration of the findings. A sample analysis of an ERP experiment illustrates the different possibilities offered by Ragu. The aim of Ragu is to maximize statistical power while minimizing the need for a-priori choices of models and parameters (like inverse models or sensors of interest) that interact with and bias statistics.

A tutorial on data-driven methods for statistically assessing ERP topographies

Dynamic changes in ERP topographies can be conveniently analyzed by means of microstates, the so-called "atoms of thoughts", that represent brief periods of quasi-stable synchronized network activation. Comparing temporal microstate features such as on- and offset or duration between groups and conditions therefore allows a precise assessment of the timing of cognitive processes. So far, this has been achieved by assigning the individual time-varying ERP maps to spatially defined microstate templates obtained from clustering the grand mean data into predetermined numbers of topographies (microstate prototypes). Features obtained from these individual assignments were then statistically compared. This has the problem that the individual noise dilutes the match between individual topographies and templates leading to lower statistical power. We therefore propose a randomization-based procedure that works without assigning grand-mean microstate prototypes to individual data. In addition, we propose a new criterion to select the optimal number of microstate prototypes based on cross-validation across subjects. After a formal introduction, the method is applied to a sample data set of an N400 experiment and to simulated data with varying signal-to-noise ratios, and the results are compared to existing methods. In a first comparison with previously employed statistical procedures, the new method showed an increased robustness to noise, and a higher sensitivity for more subtle effects of microstate timing. We conclude that the proposed method is well-suited for the assessment of timing differences in cognitive processes. The increased statistical power allows identifying more subtle effects, which is particularly important in small and scarce patient populations.

Mounting behaviour in finishing pigs: Stable individual differences are not due to dominance or stage of sexual development

Every year around 100 million male piglets are castrated in the EU, usually without anaesthesia or post-operative analgesia. This surgical intervention is painful and stressful. Several main players within the pig industry have voluntarily agreed to end the practice of surgical pig castration in the EU by 2018. One alternative to castration is entire male pig production. However, entire males behave differently than castrates, for example, by performing more mounting behaviour, which is suggested to be a welfare problem. The aim of our study was to develop a comprehensive ethogram of different types of mounting and to investigate properties, causes and consequences of mounting behaviour in finishing pigs. The study included 80 entire male and 80 female pigs from two farrowing batches born six weeks apart. Mixed sex and single-sex housing of pigs are both common in pig farming, so to ensure our study was representative, the 160 pigs were assigned to social groups of 20 in three treatments: entire male pigs only (MM, 2 groups, n = 40), entire females only (FF, 2 groups, n = 40) and entire males and females mixed together (MF, 4 groups, n = 80). Measurements took place during the final six weeks before slaughter (between 63.5 and 105.5 kg). Observations of mounting behaviour on 12 days per batch suggested that: (i) males mounted more than females, (ii) within sex, there was no effect of treatment on the amount of mounting (although the statistical power of the study to detect these effects was low), and (iii) there were individual differences in mounting that were stable over time (within sex). Classification of mounting into different categories revealed that sexual mounting was most common overall and in males but only rare in females. Compared to other types of mounting (e.g. caused by crowding or during a fight), sexual mounts lasted longer and provoked more screaming by the recipient. There were no relationships between mounting behaviour on the one hand and dominance rank in food competition tests, the circulating levels of sex hormones (oestradiol, testosterone and progesterone) at the end of the study, the health scores (lameness and scratches) or weight gain on the other hand. The stable individual differences of mounting over time suggest that mounting behaviour is a trait of the individual rather than the appearance of random outbreaks. However, these differences in mounting cannot be explained by dominance behaviour or by differences in sex hormone concentrations that could indicate the onset of puberty. Mounting behaviour and in particular sexual mounting provoked high pitched screaming of the recipients indicating that mounting is a welfare problem. For the welfare assessment of entire male pig production the performance of mounting behaviour should be considered. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Cell Sterilization in Population Based Studies of Radiogenic Second Cancers Following Radiation Therapy

Advances in radiotherapy have generated increased interest in comparative studies of treatment techniques and their effectiveness. In this respect, pediatric patients are of specific interest because of their sensitivity to radiation induced second cancers. However, due to the rarity of childhood cancers and the long latency of second cancers, large sample sizes are unavailable for the epidemiological study of contemporary radiotherapy treatments. Additionally, when specific treatments are considered, such as proton therapy, sample sizes are further reduced due to the rareness of such treatments. We propose a method to improve statistical power in micro clinical trials. Specifically, we use a more biologically relevant quantity, cancer equivalent dose (DCE), to estimate risk instead of mean absorbed dose (DMA). Our objective was to demonstrate that when DCE is used fewer subjects are needed for clinical trials. Thus, we compared the impact of DCE vs. DMA on sample size in a virtual clinical trial that estimated risk for second cancer (SC) in the thyroid following craniospinal irradiation (CSI) of pediatric patients using protons vs. photons. Dose reconstruction, risk models, and statistical analysis were used to evaluate SC risk from therapeutic and stray radiation from CSI for 18 patients. Absorbed dose was calculated in two ways: with (1) traditional DMA and (2) with DCE. DCE and DMA values were used to estimate relative risk of SC incidence (RRCE and RRMA, respectively) after proton vs. photon CSI. Ratios of RR for proton vs. photon CSI (RRRCE and RRRMA) were then used in comparative estimations of sample size to determine the minimal number of patients needed to maintain 80% statistical power when using DCE vs. DMA. For all patients, we found that protons substantially reduced the risk of developing a second thyroid cancer when compared to photon therapy. Mean RRR values were 0.052±0.014 and 0.087±0.021 for RRRMA and RRRCE, respectively. However, we did not find that use of DCE reduced the number of patents needed for acceptable statistical power (i.e, 80%). In fact, when considerations were made for RRR values that met equipoise requirements and the need for descriptive statistics, the minimum number of patients needed for a micro-clinical trial increased from 17 using DMA to 37 using DCE. Subsequent analyses revealed that for our sample, the most influential factor in determining variations in sample size was the experimental standard deviation of estimates for RRR across the patient sample. Additionally, because the relative uncertainty in dose from proton CSI was so much larger (on the order of 2000 times larger) than the other uncertainty terms, it dominated the uncertainty in RRR. Thus, we found that use of corrections for cell sterilization, in the form of DCE, may be an important and underappreciated consideration in the design of clinical trials and radio-epidemiological studies. In addition, the accurate application of cell sterilization to thyroid dose was sensitive to variations in absorbed dose, especially for proton CSI, which may stem from errors in patient positioning, range calculation, and other aspects of treatment planning and delivery.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Do individual directors matter?

Paper 1: Pilot study of Swiss firms Abstract Using a fixed effects approach, we investigate whether the presence of specific individuals on Swiss firms’ boards affects firm performance and the policy choices they make. We find evidence for a substantial impact of these directors’ presence on their firms. Moreover, the director effects are correlated across policies and performance measures but uncorrelated to the directors’ background. We find these results interesting but conclude that they should to be substantiated on a dataset that is larger and better understood by researchers. Also, further tests are required to rule out methodological concerns. Paper 2: Evidence from the S&P 1,500 Abstract We ask whether directors on corporate boards contribute to firm performance as individuals. From the universe of the S&P 1,500 firms since 1996 we track 2,062 directors who serve on multiple boards over extended periods of time. Our initial findings suggest that the presence of these directors is associated with substantial performance shifts (director fixed effects). Closer examination shows that these effects are statistical artifacts and we conclude that directors are largely fungible. Moreover, we contribute to the discussion of the fixed effects method. In particular, we highlight that the selection of the randomization method is pivotal when generating placebo benchmarks. Paper 3: Robustness, statistical power, and important directors Abstract This article provides a better understanding of Senn’s (2014) findings: The outcome that individual directors are unrelated to firm performance proves robust against different estimation models and testing strategies. By looking at CEOs, the statistical power of the placebo benchmarking test is evaluated. We find that only the stronger tests are able to detect CEO fixed effects. However, these tests are not suitable to analyze directors. The suitable tests would detect director effects if the inter quartile range of the true effects amounted to 3 percentage points ROA. As Senn (2014) finds no such effects for outside directors in general, we focus on groups of particularly important directors (e.g., COBs, non-busy directors, successful directors). Overall, our evidence suggests that the members of these groups are not individually associated with firm performance either. Thus, we confirm that individual directors are largely fungible. If the individual has an effect on performance, it is of small magnitude.

Improving the dependability of research in personality and social psychology: Recommendations for research and educational practice

In this article, the Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) Task Force on Publication and Research Practices offers a brief statistical primer and recommendations for improving the dependability of research. Recommendations for research practice include (a) describing and addressing the choice of N (sample size) and consequent issues of statistical power, (b) reporting effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), (c) avoiding “questionable research practices” that can inflate the probability of Type I error, (d) making available research materials necessary to replicate reported results, (e) adhering to SPSP’s data sharing policy, (f) encouraging publication of high-quality replication studies, and (g) maintaining flexibility and openness to alternative standards and methods. Recommendations for educational practice include (a) encouraging a culture of “getting it right,” (b) teaching and encouraging transparency of data reporting, (c) improving methodological instruction, and (d) modeling sound science and supporting junior researchers who seek to “get it right.”

Prenatal management of monoamniotic twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVE To evaluate antenatal surveillance strategies and the optimal timing of delivery for monoamniotic twin pregnancies. METHODS Obstetric and perinatal outcomes were retrospectively retrieved for 193 monoamniotic twin pregnancies. Fetal and neonatal outcomes were compared between fetuses followed in an inpatient setting and those undergoing intensive outpatient follow-up from 26 to 28 weeks of gestation until planned cesarean delivery between 32 and 35 weeks of gestation. The risk of fetal death was compared with the risk of neonatal complications. RESULTS Fetal deaths occurred in 18.1% of fetuses (70/386). Two hundred ninety-five neonates from 153 pregnancies were born alive after 23 weeks of gestation. There were 17 neonatal deaths (5.8%), five of whom had major congenital anomalies. The prospective risk of a nonrespiratory neonatal complication was lower than the prospective risk of fetal death after 32 4/7 weeks of gestation (95% confidence interval 32 0/7-33 4/7). The incidence of death or a nonrespiratory neonatal complication was not significantly different between fetuses managed as outpatients (14/106 [13.2%]) or inpatients (15/142 [10.5%]; P=.55). Our statistical power to detect a difference in outcomes between these groups was low. CONCLUSIONS The in utero risk of a monoamniotic twin fetus exceeds the risk of a postnatal nonrespiratory complication at 32 4/7 weeks of gestation. If close fetal surveillance is instituted after 26-28 weeks of gestation and delivery takes place at approximately 33 weeks of gestation, the risk of fetal or neonatal death is low, no matter the surveillance setting. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE II.