The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

State and society in the English countryside: the rural community movement 1918-1939

This paper assesses the relationship between state and society in interwar rural England, focusing on the hitherto neglected role of the Rural Community Councils (RCCs). The rise of statutory social provision in the early twentieth century created new challenges and opportunities for voluntaryism, and the rural community movement was in part a response. The paper examines the early development of the movement, arguing that a crucial role was played by a close-knit group of academics and local government officials. While largely eschewing party politics, they shared a commitment to citizenship, democracy and the promotion of rural culture; many of them had been close associates of Sir Horace Plunkett. The RCCs engaged in a wide range of activities, including advisory work, adult education, local history, village hall provision, support for rural industries and an ambivalent engagement with parish councils. The paper concludes with an assessment of the achievements of the rural community movement, arguing that it was constrained by its financial dependence on voluntary contributions.

The State, the community and society in social development

President Cardoso delivered this address at the First Regional Conference in Follow-up to the World Summit for Social Development, held in Sao Paulo from 6 to 9 April 1997. On that occasion President Cardoso reviewed the issues examined at the World Summit, with special emphasis on poverty and the search for an environmentally sound, democratic form of development that will lead to a greater degree of social equity. Within this context, he discussed the relationship between economic and social factors, devoting particular attention to State reform, education, competitiveness and job creation. He also outlined the situation in Brazil with regard to economic development, education and health services, the neeed for agrarian reform based on the principle of equity, and respect for human rights. In concluding his statement, he stressed the need to overcome the traditional division between community and society and between the public and private spheres. To that end, he called for a re-examination of ethical considerations, not as an empty discussion of morality but rather as an effective means of motivating action for change.

State-civil society partnership: issues for debate and new researches

Neste artigo analisamos a literatura de parceria entre o estado e a sociedade civil, em particular sobre a parceria entre as organizações públicas e as organizações sem fins lucrativos. Discutimos as diferentes perspectivas do conceito de parceria e objetivamos destacar algumas das principais preocupações teóricas sobre este conceito no contexto da governança. Buscamos mostrar que, em geral, o contexto histórico da parceria não tem sido incluído entre os fatores usados para explicar o seu uso no contexto da governança. Apontamos que, a despeito das análises sobre parceria que indicam que esta traz benefícios sociais, ainda existem lacunas no conhecimento que evidenciem que esta "tecnologia social" contribui efetivamente para empoderar as pessoas e os grupos sociais com menor poder de influência. A maior parte da literatura sugere que a parceria objetiva fortalecer a relação entre a população e o governo local e melhorar as possibilidades das pessoas e dos grupos sociais com menor poder de influência em participar na governança local. Entretanto, não encontramos na literatura sobre parceria evidências substantivas de que ela se direciona para modificar a estrutura de poder político. Finalmente, mostramos que não está claro se a interação entre as "pessoas comuns" e o estado, por via de um processo participativo, tem contribuído efetivamente para construir coesão social para diferentes grupos sociais. A principal contribuição do artigo é expandir o conhecimento dos fatores que influenciam (de forma positiva e negativa) o processo de parceria entre o estado e a sociedade civil para o desenvolvimento local.

Rethinking What is Necessary in a Democratic Society: Militant Democracy and the Turkish State

Questions relating to contemporary understandings of democracy continue to preoccupy the academic landscape, from politics to law—how does one define democracy; is it necessary to recalibrate the concept of democracy to meet the exigencies of the current global security "crisis" and, following from this, how does one understand (and control) the democratic relationship of representation and accountability between citizen and state? Although those writing on the recalibration of democratic theory come from different points of departure, they often arrive at a similar conclusion; namely that this global era poses significant challenges to contemporary understandings of democracy. This article identifies and focuses on one challenge posed by the concept of “militant” democracy against the backdrop of the Turkish case.

The sociological perspective on the knowledge-based society: assumptions, facts and visions

The paper will present the central discourse of the knowledge-based society. Already in the 1960s the debate of the industrial society already raised the question whether there can be considered a paradigm shift towards a knowledge-based society. Some prominent authors already foreseen ‘knowledge’ as the main indicator in order to displace ‘labour’ and ‘capital’ as the main driving forces of the capitalistic development. Today on the political level and also in many scientific disciplines the assumption that we are already living in a knowledge-based society seems obvious. Although we still do not have a theory of the knowledge-based society and there still exist a methodological gap about the empirical indicators, the vision of a knowledge-based society determines at least the perception of the Western societies. In a first step the author will pinpoint the assumptions about the knowledge-based society on three levels: on the societal, on the organisational and on the individual level. These assumptions are relied on the following topics: a) The role of the information and communication technologies; b) The dynamic development of globalisation as an ‘evolutionary’ process; c) The increasing importance of knowledge management within organisations; d) The changing role of the state within the economic processes. Not only the differentiation between the levels but also the revision of the assumptions of a knowledge-based society will show that the ‘topics raised in the debates’ cannot be considered as the results of a profound societal paradigm shift. However what seems very impressive is the normative and virtual shift towards a concept of modernity, which strongly focuses on the role of technology as a driving force as well as on the global economic markets, which has to be accepted. Therefore – according to the official debate - the successful adaptation of these processes seems the only way to meet the knowledge-based society. Analysing the societal changes on the three levels, the label ‘knowledge-based society’ can be seen critically. Therefore the main question of Theodor W. Adorno during the 16th Congress of Sociology in 1968 did not loose its actuality. Facing the societal changes he asked whether we are still living in the industrial society or already in a post-industrial state. Thinking about the knowledge-based society according to these two options, this exercise would enrich the whole debate in terms of social inequality, political, economic exclusion processes and at least the power relationship between social groups.

Relationship between rainfall and temperature: observations on the cases of visceral leishmaniasis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem that requires global control strategies, especially with respect to factors that may intervene in reducing the incidence of endemicity. In this work, rainfall density and temperature were correlated with the incidence of human cases in an area endemic for leishmaniasis in São Luis do Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Notification of human cases by the National Health Foundation/Regional Coordination of Maranhão (FUNASA/COREMA) from 2002 to 2010 was used. Ecological data (mean temperature and rainfall density) were provided by the Meteorological Office of State. RESULTS: A significant association was verified between the number of VL cases and rainfall rate but not in the analysis concerning mean temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the control actions in visceral leishmaniasis should be performed during rainy season in the State of Maranhão, which is in the first half of the year.

Diagnosis of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs and the relationship with environmental and sanitary aspects in the municipality of Palmas, state of Tocantins, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to identify the presence of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs in the City of Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, using the PCR technique to list the hot spots of infected dogs in the city and associate their occurrence to significant environmental changes at capture sites. METHODS: DNA was extracted from blood of dogs, and the PCR were performed with primers RV1/RV2. After screening the population studied, the regions of the city that had the highest occurrence of canine infection were detected. These sites were visited, and ecological parameters denoting anthropogenic disturbance were evaluated. RESULTS: Some important features were listed in the regions visited, such as low urbanization, lack of public collection of sewage, limited garbage collection, vacant lots with tall vegetation, decaying organic matter, and, most importantly, the occurrence of stray dogs and poultry in homes. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology for screening the population was very efficient, especially in evaluating a large number of individuals in a short time, with a high degree of automation. The results indicate an association between the observed parameters and the occurrence of infection in dogs. The model presented in the city is ideal for studies of disease progression and expansion and for the evaluation of control measures adopted for canine VL.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Changes in the relationship between society and nature in the Mezzo-region of Southeastern Pará, Amazon, Brazil

With this work, the authors wish to show some of the alterations in the pattern of relations between society and nature, which have taken place throughout the 20th century in the Parauapebas and Itacaiúnas river valleys, as well as in parts of the Tocantins River valley, in southeastern Pará. This is accomplished through descriptions based on Coudreau's first-hand accounts (1889), transcribed in "Voyage a Itaboca et a L'Itacayuna", published in 1897, which depicts an area almost totally covered by forest. This is followed by a counter view made possible through the LandSat 5 satellite sensors, with images of those valleys in 2001, showing the consequences of society transformations and pressure on natural resources, and above all the dramatic decrease in the size of the forest, reduced to 52 percent of the 63,000 square kilometers analyzed herein.

Parasite-host relationship between the tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum Cuvier 1818) and ectoparasites, collected from fish farms in the city of Rolim de Moura, State of Rondônia, Western Amazon, Brazil

In this study we investigated the relationship between tambaqui fish (Colossoma macropomumi Cuvier 1818) and parasites in two fish farms (L204S and L180N) in the state of Rondônia, Brazil, during a 1-year period. The objective of the study was to describe the relationships between parasites, hosts and the environment. From the 80 fish specimens collected, 100% were parasitized by at least one parasite species. Seven ectoparasites species were recorded, six of the class Monogenea: Anacanthorus spathulatusi, Mymarothecium spp. (Mymarothecium sp. 1, Mymarothecium sp. 2 and M. viatorum), Notozothecium sp. and Linguadactyloides brinkimanni, classified as dominants, and the copepod Perulernaea gamitanae, classified as subordinate. Despite their high prevalence, the parasites were not abundant. A. spathulatus presented positive and significant correlations between the abundance of parasitism and the standard length of the hosts in the two fish farms; Mymarothecium spp. showed significant correlations, negative in L180N, and positive in L204S; significant positive correlations were observed for Notozothecium sp. in L204S, and for L.brinkimanni in L180N. Young monogeneans were found; these parasites presented a negative correlation in L180N and a significant negative correlation in L204S. The results of the correlation between the relative condition factor (Kn) and the abundance of parasites were not significant for the recorded parasite species. Regarding the hepatosomatic relation (HSR) of fish and the abundance of parasites, Anacanthorus spathulatusi showed a significant negative correlation with the HSR in L180N, and a positive correlation in L204S. Mymarothecium spp. and Notozothecium sp. presented significant positive correlations in L204S. Considering the correlation of the fish splenosomatic relation (SSR) and the abundance of parasites, L. brinkimanni presented significant correlations, positive in L180N and negative in L204S. Despite 100% prevalence, the high water quality contributes to infracommunities with low parasite abundance and good levels of Kn, HSR and SSR, allowing good tambaqui development.

Transactions of the California State Agricultural Society.

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Transactions of the California State Agricultural Society.

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